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Economic Development
livelihoods
Conservation
Forest values
Biodiversity
Protected areas
Poverty reduction
Economic Development
livelihoods
Conservation
Forest values
Biodiversity
Protected areas
Poverty reduction
Global demands -Local needs
Widening the scope of Forest-based Climate Mitigati on Options in the Tropics
Gerhard Dieterle Forest Adviser, The World Bank
September 14, 2011
Climate
Global Environmental Services
Rondonia Brazil 1975
(NASA Visible Earth website
Rondonia Brazil 1986
(NASA Visible Earth website
Rondonia Brazil 1992
(NASA Visible Earth website
Rondonia Brazil 2001
(NASA Visible Earth website
But how pervasive is deforestation???
Global forest cover and deforestation hotspots.
Sources of emission in selected Sources of emission in selected Carbon rich CountriesCarbon rich Countries..
Indonesia a significant emitter due to forestry and land use change
Source: PT P.E.A.C.E., 2007 compiled from IEA’s 2005 annual statistics, US EPA 2006, and Houghton 2003. If EU included, Indonesia stands 4th. Estimate subject to uncertainty.
Energy emissions lower, but growing fast
88
• Every year we lose an area the size of England to deforestation
• Emissions from deforestation exceed total annual CO2 emissions
from USA or China
• Emissions from deforestation far exceed those of transportation
sector – more than every car, airplane and train in the world
• Accelerating trend towards large scale investments in agribusiness
and biofuels
Poverty and agricultural conversion are the main causes of deforestation
Drivers
of
Deforestation
� Deforestation causes 16 - 20% of carbon emissions, but
� Account for the majority of emissions in Least Developed Countries
� Forests could provide 33% of the GHG abatement required
9
Forestsplay a
central rolein GHG
Abatement in
Developing Countries
Impacts of large scale farming on
forest plantations,
Riau, Indonesia
Source: Uryu, Y. et al. 2008 (used with permission
Erosion and water quality reduction due to deforestation and forest degadation
�Slash and burn agriculture
�Shifting Agriculture
Forest-based climate change
mitigation potential
- Substitution not included -
12
Opportunity:
Landscape Restoration
andClimate-Smart
Agriculture
� Restoration potential is high: at least 2 billion hectares (WRI 2011)
� There are plenty of successful examples of restored landscapes
� Productive landscapes benefit local livelihoods, improve food security, create jobs and income, improve environmental services
� Combining Agriculture + Agriculture + Forestry
� Growing momentum at international level:� Global Forest Landscape Restoration Initiative� Meeting of African Ministers (Sept 2011)� The Hague Conference� Hope to include in UNFCCC agenda
Climate ‘Smart’Agriculture
Landscape Restoration and Promoting Climate-smart
Agriculture
� Intensify commercial agriculture away from forest frontiers
- intensification using ‘climate smart’ and labour intensive methods
enables increases in productivity, while also drawing labour away from forests
� Intensify small scale and subsistence agriculture
-Increasing agricultural productivity using ‘climate smart’ methods will enable farmers to increase their productivity and meet household food security objectives
� Promote and support agroforestry
-effective way of increasing tree and forest cover in agricultural systems as well as providing bi-products of particular benefit to
smallholders e.g. wood fuel, fodder, diverse food products.
� Create payments for ecosystem services schemes
-Payments to landholders for maintenance of existing forests will discourage agricultural expansion to forest lands
Challenge:
Feeding 9
billion people
in 2050
while
conserving
and
enhancing
integrity of
ecosystems
Opportunity:
Addressing Energy demand
and Supply
• 95 % of total bioenergy supply from solid biomass
• 60-80 % of total energy supply in developing countries from solid biomass
• Massive expansion of solid biomass needs in Africa up to 2030 and beyond
• massive expansion of liquid biofuel feedstock in developing countries could compete with energy and food supply needs for local populations
• additional land pressure from increased demand for modern solid biomass (pellets) in Europe and North America
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Africa
South Asia
Middle East and North Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Europe and Central Asia
East Asia and Pacific
Australia, Japan, New Zealand
European Union (27) + 3
North America
Primary energy supply in MTOE
Traditional uses (wood) Traditional uses (agricultural residues)
Production of heat and power Internal use in forestry and agricultural processing
2005
2030
Competition between biofuel and traditional bioenergy uses
- Total primary energy supply from
primary solid biomass by region and type in 2005
and 2030 -
Opportunity:
Addressing large scale
investments and “land
grab”
for :
biofuelscommodities
fiber
18
Land acquisitions: Verified area for selected countries 2000-2010
Potential land use competition
from first-generation
biofuel expansion in developing countries
Increased Demand for Biofuels Likely to Lead to Consi derable Conversion of Forest Land
Projected increase land for biofuels, 2030
Land Classified as Suitable for feedstocks
Source: IIASA, 2009
1.4 m ha intersections; 418 overlaps
Large Scale Investments in Mozambique
Global environmental
effectsof selected
biofuel feedstocks
22
Commodity Roundtables
can complement
REDD+ in avoiding
deforestation
Standards for land conversion
within major commodity roundtables
“Zero Deforestation
Targets”
Commodity
2010 Global Production 2010 Sustainable Production
% of Total Certified
% Pledge
Standard
Timber 1,567 M m3 (round wood equi.)
132.8 M m3 (round wood equi.)
8.4% FSC
Pulp and Paper
380 Million Mt 200 M Mt (FSC & recycled)
5.6% FSC47% (Rec)
FSC
Soy 251.7 Million Mt 0.5 M Mt 0.2% RTRS
Palm Oil 47 Million Mt 3 M Mt 6.3% RSPO
Cotton 24 Million Mt (cotton lint) 0.1 M Mt 0.4% BCI
Sugar 164 M Mt 0 0% BSI
Biofuels Bioethanol: 6.5 M MtBiodiesel: 6 M Mt; Biomass (pellet production): 100 M Mt
0 0% RSB
Tuna 4 Million Mt 0.02 M Mt 0.5% MSC
Whitefish
8 Million Mt 3.5 M Mt 43% MSC
Salmon Aq.
1.2 Million Mt 0 0% ASC
Shrimp Aq.
2.5 Million Mt 0 0% ASC
Beef Coco
a
Coffee Palm Oil Sugar Soy Cotton Shrimp White Fish
� Laws- that are consistent across countries and favou r legal and sustainable trade. E.g.
� The US Lacey Act and the EU Due Diligence Legislati on both fully ban the import of illegal forest products,
� The EU’s Forest Law Enforcement Governance and Trad e (FLEGT) action plan discourages illegal logging
� Bilateral agreements and MOUs- that directly promote legal and sustainable trade. E.g.
� The EU’s Voluntary Partnership Agreements with trop ical wood exporting countries aim to support improved forest governance and to ensure EU imports from these countries are legal
� Public procurement policies -that require legal and sustainably sourced products. Such policies should recognize credible v oluntary certification schemes
� Promotion of credible certification schemes- needs t o be expanded and scaled up.
� The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), along with mu lti-stakeholder roundtables are initiatives that help companies pro gress toward certified production of commodities such as timber, cotton, s ugar, soy and palm oil.
Opportunity:
Promoting Sustainable
Forest Management
and Good Governance
through consumer demand
and the Value Chain
Promotinglegal
logging through forest
certification
Globally Certified Area by FSC by forest type
Development of carbon stocks
in
- soil- living biomass
and - product
substitution
Scenario A, B
Multiple-benefits of common forestry
practices
Opportunity:Climate Change Mitigation Opportunities in the Forest
Production ChainectorTransportation
About 9% of emissions in FPI Limited opportunities
Plantations
Huge opportunities.Key is previous land-use.
Biofuel & Cogeneration:
Energy > ½ all emissions.
Large opportunities.
Conversions
Limited emissions Limited opportunities
Waste Management
i) Post-consumer recycling. ii) Utilization of waste wood.
Large opportunities.
SFM Natural Forests
Huge opportunities.Carbon in wood harvested & avoided deforestation.
Opportunity 6:
REDD+ and Biodiversity
Risks for biodiversity REDD+ Activity Opportu nities for biodiversityconservation
Displacement of land use change to non-forest or low carbon ecosystems
Reduced deforestation
Spatial planning for biodiversity
Continued extractive pressures
Reduced forest degradation
Slowed habitat loss and fragmentation
Low tree diversity Conservation of forest carbon stocks
Recovery of forest structure
Non-native or non-local species
Sustainable management of forest
Recovery of forest composition
Afforestation of valuable non-forest ecosystems or natural forests
Enhancement of forest carbon stocks
Increased forest area
Increased forest connectivity Typical
Depends strongly on approach
Economic Development
livelihoods
Conservation
Forest values
Biodiversity
Protected areas
Poverty reduction
Economic Development
livelihoods
Conservation
Forest values
Biodiversity
Protected areas
Poverty reduction
Thank You!
www.worldbank.org/forests