Economic Development as a Tool to Reduce Secessionism in Jammu and Kashmir

Zachary Jones, Corey Singletary, Bartosz Szkatula, Farha Tahir

2

Kashmir Conflict

Key events

• 1947 Accession to India

• Wars in 1947, 1965, 1971

• 1972 Simla Agreement

• 1999 Kargil Conflict

• 2001 Srinigar Conflict

3

Overview Evaluate current development efforts and their

predicted effects on secessionism Key economic sectors

Our prediction: current development efforts will reduce secessionist sentiment

U.S. Government can help through diplomatic, financial, and technical assistance

4

Violence in Jammu and Kashmir

Source: Indiastat

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Total Incidents Trend (Total Incidents)Civilians Killed Security Forces Personnel Killed

Year

Num

ber

5

Secessionism in Jammu and Kashmir Examples of secessionist groups

Harakat ul-Jihad-I-Islami, Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front, Kashmir Freedom Movement, Lashkar-e-Taiba

Primary Objectives Creation of independent state Accession to Pakistan

Platform Identity politics: ethno-nationalism Denial of rights Unfulfilled potential (social, political, economic)

Main effect on most residents: economic

6

Economic Development as Tool to Reduce Secessionism

Secessionism Popular cost-benefit analysis of union vs.

independence Often viewed and addressed as social or political

Economic approach underutilized

7

Analytical Framework: Theorized Effects on Secessionism

Economic Factor Effect

Absolute level of development +

Relative level of development +/-

Trade dependency -

Net capital flows -

Economic decentralization +/-

Source: Bookman (1991, 1993) with modifications

8

Key Economic Sectors Agriculture

80% of population’s livelihood 40% of employment Existing land, labor, and capital

Tourism 30% of employment Popularity of existing religious sites

Infrastructure Limiting factor for above sectors Untapped potential

9

Agriculture Current development efforts

Technology Information Market access Insurance

Effects on secessionism Higher capital inflow decrease Greater trade dependency decrease Higher absolute level of development increase

10

Tourism Current development efforts

Heritage conservation Accommodations Accessibility Marketing

Effects on secessionism Higher capital inflow decrease Higher absolute level of development increase

11

Infrastructure Current development efforts

Rail Roads Power

Effects on secessionism Higher capital inflow decrease Uncertainties

Physical capital Relative level of development

Importance of coordination

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Summary Predictions

 

FACTOR

Absolute Level of Development

Relative Level of Development

Trade Dependency

Net Capital Flows

Economic Decentralization TOTAL

SECTOR

Agriculture Likely Increase Likely Decrease Likely Decrease Very Likely Decrease

Likely (Minor) Increase Likely Decrease

Tourism Likely Increase Likely Decrease Uncertain Likely Decrease Unlikely Increase Likely Decrease

Infrastructure Likely Increase Uncertain Likely Decrease Likely Decrease Uncertain Uncertain

TOTAL Likely Increase Likely Decrease Likely Decrease Very Likely Decrease

Unlikely Increase  

13

Additional Considerations Popular perception of effects

Reliance on national planning, funding, and trade Explicit intent of efforts to reduce

secessionism Coordination of efforts

Between sectors Between agencies

Political, military, economic

14

Opportunity Analysis Leverage American reputation in Kashmir

U.S. seen as “honest broker” Help legitimize India

Financial support to India Direct through national government

Technical assistance

15

Thank you!

Questions?

The La Follette School of Public AffairsUniversity of Wisconsin Madison

1225 Observatory DriveMadison, WI 53706

(608) 262-3581

info@lafollette.wisc.edu

Economic Development as a Tool to Reduce Secessionism in Jammu and Kashmir

Zachary Jones, Corey Singletary, Bartosz Szkatula, Farha Tahir

May 6, 2010

Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin Madison1225 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706 • (608) 262-3581 • info@lafollette.wisc.edu

Predicted Effect of Economic Development on Secessionism

 

FACTOR

Absolute Level of

Development

Relative Level of

DevelopmentTrade

DependencyNet Capital

FlowsEconomic

Decentralization TOTAL

SECTOR

Agriculture Likely Increase

Likely Decrease

Likely Decrease

Very Likely Decrease

Likely (Minor) Increase

Likely Decrease

Tourism Likely Increase

Likely Decrease Uncertain Likely 

DecreaseUnlikely Increase

Likely Decrease

Infrastructure Likely Increase Uncertain Likely 

DecreaseLikely 

Decrease Uncertain Uncertain

TOTAL Likely Increase

Likely Decrease

Likely Decrease

Very Likely Decrease

Unlikely Increase