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Economic Data as Snapshots in Time Katrina Stierholz Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis IASSIST Conference May 27, 2005

Economic Data as Snapshots in Time

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Economic Data as Snapshots in Time. Katrina Stierholz Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis IASSIST Conference May 27, 2005. FRED, FRASER, & ALFRED. FRED—economic time series database FRASER—an image archive ALFRED—real time economic time series database. 1Q2004 GDP revisions. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Economic Data as Snapshots in Time

Economic Data as Snapshots in Time

Katrina StierholzFederal Reserve Bank of St. LouisIASSIST ConferenceMay 27, 2005

Page 2: Economic Data as Snapshots in Time

FRED, FRASER, & ALFRED

FRED—economic time series database

FRASER—an image archive

ALFRED—real time economic time series database

Page 3: Economic Data as Snapshots in Time

1Q2004 GDP revisions

April 29, 2004 First quarter “advance” GDP is issued (increased 4.2%)

May 27, 2004 First quarter “preliminary” GDP is issued (increased 4.4%)

June 25, 2004 First quarter “final” GDP is issued (increased 3.9%)

July 30, 2004 First quarter GDP is revised to 4.5% (as part of the annual revision)

June 2005 the next annual revision will be released, revising the number again… and did I mention benchmarks?

Page 4: Economic Data as Snapshots in Time

Real-Time Data

Represents the data at a particular point in time

Useful for replication studies, forecast models, evaluating policy decisions (historical), understanding the scope of revisions for various data series

First release information available in press releases

Page 5: Economic Data as Snapshots in Time

Finding old revisions

Press releases Economic serial publications (e.g.,

Economic Indicators, Survey of Current Business, and Federal Reserve Bulletin)They don’t have release datesBut, they do offer a nice “snapshot” view of

the economy at a particular moment in time (over the course of a week or month)

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FRASER

Images Part of GPO digitization project Features

Linked tables OCRd material SuDoc numbers added Searchable High quality scanning Low-cost way of providing this information

OCR cannot be extracted (it is uncorrected)

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FRASER workflowPublication

ScannerTIFF files

PDF files

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org

File cleaningOCR

Archive

Original TIFF files

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ALFRED

Much more sophisticated (interface and user)

Data will go back to December 1996, in the first release (July 2005)

25 major data series have been gathered back to the beginning of their release

Page 10: Economic Data as Snapshots in Time

Database construction

Time as a feature (Snodgrass book) Data point

Time intervalValidity interval

Only twice as many data points as current FRED database.

Will live within FRED, for a while, later it will be a separate site

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Library/Librarian Issues

Loss of information in paper Loss of electronic information Consider snapshots Consider sending it to us

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http://research.stlouisfed.orgPlease contact me at:

[email protected]