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Economic and Housing Opportunities (ECHO) Assessment
April 6, 2011
Association of Bay Area Governments
Introduction
Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative
The Grand Boulevard Initiative is a collaboration of stakeholders united to achieve a shared vision for El Camino Real.
The Grand Boulevard Initiative
The Grand Boulevard Vision
State Rte 82 43 miles, Daly City to
Diridon Station in San Jose
Only major north-south arterial
Paralleled by BART and Caltrain lines
Most productive VTA and SamTrans bus service
The El Camino Real Corridor Opportunity
Realizing the Vision
“Coalition of the willing” Multiple investors
Federal, state and local governments Transportation agencies (SamTrans, VTA, C/CAG,
MTC) Business and development community 19 cities in 2 counties
14 cities, SM County and 7 agencies have adopted the Grand Boulevard Guiding Principles
Economic and Housing Opportunities (ECHO) Assessment
Purpose of the Assignment:
Making the Case for Transformation of the Corridor into the Grand Boulevard
Our Analysis:
1.Estimates of Potential Growth on the Corridor
2.Profile of Transformational Projects
3.Measure the Fiscal and Other Benefits of Transformation
4.Visualize and Study the Physical Implications of Transformation
Findings
Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative
Corridor Growth Scenarios 2010-2035 Estimate Magnitude of Potential Change
Growth Model
Greenbelt Alliance “Grow Smart Bay Area”
ABAG FOCUS PDAs
VTA - GBI Baseline
VTA - GBI Moderate
VTA - GBI Enhanced
Geography of Study Parcels on El Camino Real “Smart Spot” and PDAs
13 city-sponsored PDAs on El Camino Real
TAZs within 1/4 and 1/3 mile buffers of corridor
TAZs within 1/4 and 1/3 mile buffers of corridor
TAZs within 1/4 and 1/3 mile buffers of corridor
Methodology/ Assumptions
Uses ABAG 2009 projections for region. Incorporates PDA assumptions.
Allocates future regional growth on the rest of Corridor through infill of under-utilized land based on density assumptions.
Uses ABAG 2009 projections for region.
Focused growth in locally identified infill opportunities in existing areas near transit
Travel demand model using ABAG 2007 projections for TAZs
Assumes existing land use policies and patterns in allocating densities.
Travel demand model using ABAG 2007 projections for TAZs
Reallocation of growth into the Corridor, and densities increased near transit (bus and rail) to 20 – 55 DU/acre
Travel demand model using ABAG 2007 projections for Counties.
Reallocates growth into the Corridor, and densities increased near transit to 40-75 du/acre
Summary of Growth Scenarios: Projected New Households and Jobs in 2035
98,849
45,071 39,147 57,355
89,270
240,264
107,135
138,543
190,395
246,231
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Greenbelt Alliance FOCUS PDAs GBI Baseline GBI Moderate GBI Enhanced
Households Jobs
These projections are pegged to outdated ABAG forecasts of regional growth
The Corridor has Capacity to Accommodate Future Growth
Land capacity > amount of land required for infill Can be achieved at a range of densities
25-35 DU/AC – 3-4 stories, stacked attached townhomes, tuck-under parking
70-85 DU/AC – 6-8 stories, flats over structured parking/ground floor retail
20-25 DU/AC – 2+ stories, attached townhomes, underground parking
Fiscal Benefits of Infill Development ~ $330 million to $752 million in local tax revenues
Conversion of Low-Performing Retail Sites to Higher Intensity Uses Can be Generate More Revenues
Infrastructure and Service Costs
Economies of scale for some departments – Public Works, Engineering, etc.
Requires further analysis needed at the municipal level
Marginal vs. average costs
Smart growth can lower infrastructure costs
O&M Costs Vary
Source: Calthorpe Associates; Strategic Economics
Other Benefits of Transformation
Revitalization and value enhancement Time and cost savings for households and
employees More stable communities Provide a variety of housing types Access to skilled labor force
• 4 transformed El Camino Real settings depicted with “Grand Boulevard” streetscapes
• Range of types shown are in accordance with local zoning & guidelines
• 2-3 story townhomes at ½ acre South San Francisco location
• 3-4 story stacked flats at ½ acre San Mateo location
• 4-5 story stacked flats with some ground floor retail at assembled 1+ acre Sunnyvale location
• 4-8 story stacked flats in multiple parcels at Downtown Redwood City location
Physical Implications
South SF
Photo Credit: Google
SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT
San MateoSIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT
Photo Credit: Google
Sunnyvale
Photo Credit: Google
SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT
Redwood CitySIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT
Photo Credit: City of Redwood City
Policy Implications
Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative
Visual Character Must Change To Unlock Potential of the Grand Boulevard
Transition from linear strip arterial to a pattern of centers and segments
Development projects that capture, maintain, and add value
Need to create an attractive environment for development
Implementation Issues
Public and private stakeholders must work together to effect change
ECHO Phase II Work: Implementation
TIGER II Grant to fund implementation study In-depth look at major issues in 4 cities:
Removing barriers Infrastructure needs assessment Financing strategies at local and regional level