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Economic Analysis of a Natural Disaster
DISCUSSION
October 15, 2008
Presented by
Patrick O’Neil
Brady Smith
Analysis Components
• Vulnerability Assessment
• Impact Analysis of a Catastrophic Event
• Effects of current and future mitigation strategies
• Package analysis template (model) for future use and transferability
Vulnerability Assessment
• Define geographic study area• Primary (coastal planning area) and Secondary (rest of county)
• Number of Businesses• Property Appraiser (value)• County Licenses• ES-202 data
• Number of Residences• Property Appraiser • Census
• Single-family• Multi-family
• Linkage and distribution of businesses• Some businesses will be impacted by others being out of
business• Survival of some businesses will be dependent upon their
market being there
Impact Analysis of a Catastrophic Event
• Moderate (Cat 3) & high end (Cat 5)• Net impacts
• Economic activity lost (costs)• Lost income and sales
• Tourism• Business closures and lost production
• Economic activity generated (gains)• Reconstruction
• Utilities, contractors, debris removal• Tax collection impacts
• Property taxes• Sales taxes
• Recovery cycle• Short run – 1 year• Medium – 3 year• Long-term – 5 to 7 years94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
NormalDisaster
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Avera’s Impact Hypothesis
BoomBust
Effects of current and future mitigation strategies
• Planning• Construction mitigation
• Hardening, elevation, “relocation of activities”
• Business Preparedness• Mitigation• Continuity
• Recovery• State and Federal Assistance• Implementation of mitigation measures to
reduce future impacts• Mitigation Return on Investment (ROI)
Future Use and Transferability
• Package analysis template (model) for future use
• Work with other Florida Regional Planning Councils to develop models based on the template and using their localized datasets
Discussion
Patrick O’Neil, MBASenior [email protected]
ext. 31
Brady SmithSenior [email protected]
ext. 42
Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council
(727) 570 – 5151 (727) 570 - 5151