Economic Indicators

Item 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E

GDP growth rate (%) 6.68 6.21 6.81 7.08 6.8

Export (billion USD) 162.4 175.9 213.77 244.72 264.3

Growth rate (%) 8.1 8.6 21.1 13.8 8.0

Import (billion USD) 165.6 173.3 211.1 237.51 263.5

Growth rate (%) 12.0 4.6 20.8 11.5 10.9

Trade balance (billion USD) -3.2 2.68 2.7 7.2 0.8

Inflation (CPI) (%) 0.63 2.66 3.53 3.54 3.38

Population (million persons) 91.7 92.7 93.7 94.67 96.20

Labor force (million persons) 47.4 47.7 48.2 48.7 49.2

Unemployment rate (%) 2.33 2.30 2.24 2.19 2.16

Vietnam Paper & Paperboard (1,000 tons)

2,420

2,087

3,796

1,898

189

3,773

2,801

4,265

1,962

498

5,129

3,674

4,946

2,082

810

5,434

4,141

5,372

2,081

850

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Capacity Production Consumption Import Export

2016 2017 2018 2019E

Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

- Capacity: 31.0% per year

- Production: 25.7% per year

- Consumption: 12.3% per year

- Import: 3.1% per year

- Export: 65.1% per year

Total Capacity: Paper and Paperboard (1,000 tons)

Capacity structure 2019E

Annual growth rate increased 31.0% per year:

➢ Main capacity is containerboard, growth mainly in the last three year.

➢ Capacity still lacked of: coated board, coated paper, other special papers…

Capacity: Newsprint, Printing & Writing paper (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate:

➢ Uncoated paper decreased 0.9% per year.

➢ Newsprint, coated paper not available.

Growth rate (uncoated paper)

Capacity: Paperboards (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate increased 40.2% per year:

➢ Containerboard increased 41.0% per year.

➢ Boxboard decreased 2.3% per year.

Growth rate

Capacity: Tissue paper (1,000 tons) Capacity: Joss paper & Other P & PB (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate:

➢ Tissue increased 6.6% per year.

➢ Joss paper increased 4.8% per year.

➢ Other paper & paperboard increased 5.0% per year.

2

Total production: Paper and Paperboard (1,000 tons)

Production grades 2019E

➢ Annual growth rate increased 25.7% per year.

➢ Containerboard, tissue and joss paper have satisfied domestic demand and strong exported for the past three years.

0 0 0 00 0 0 0

264

297319 321

2016 2017 2018 2019E

Newprint Coated paper Uncoated paper

Production: Newsprint, Printing & Writing paper (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate:

➢ Uncoated paper increased 6.7% per year.

➢ Newsprint and coated paper not available.

Growth rate (uncoated paper)

Production: Paperboards (1,000 tons)

1,436

2,102

2,926

3,378

40 35 35 35

2016 2017 2018 2019E

Containerboard Boxboard

Annual growth rate increased 32.2% per year:

➢ Containerboard increased 33.0% per year.

➢ Boxboard decreased 4.4% per year.

Growth rate

Production: Tissue paper (1,000 tons)

178

186

198

2087.9%

4.5%

6.5%5.1%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

215

2016 2017 2018 2019E

Tissue Growth rate %

Annual growth rate increased 5.3% per year.

9499

110113

7582

86 86

2016 2017 2018 2019E

Joss paper Other paper and paperboard

Production: Joss paper, other Paper and Paperboard (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate:

➢ Joss paper increased 6.3% per year.

➢ Other P & PB increased 4.7% per year.

Growth rate

Total Consumption: Paper and Paperboard (1,000 tons)

Consumption grades 2019E

Annual growth rate increased 12.3% per year.

Consumption: Newsprint (1,000 tons) Consumption: Tissue paper (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate:

➢ Newsprint decreased 3.9% per year.

➢ Tissue paper increased 6.6% per year.

Consumption: Printing & Writing paper (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate increased 2.6% per year:

➢ Uncoated paper increased 5.8% per year.

➢ Coated paper decreased 3.0% per year.

Growth rate

Consumption: Paperboards (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate increased 16.1% per year:

➢ Containerboard increased 17.6% per year.

➢ Boxboard increased 10.4% per year.

Growth rate

Consumption: Joss Paper, Other Paper and Paperboard (1,000 tons)

Other paper and paperboard: Include thermal paper, carbonless, cup stock, medical paper, label paper, food wrappings, sack & bags kraft,

insulation paper, decor paper, chipboard, art board…

➢ Other P & PB increased 5.9% per year.

➢ Joss paper remained unchanged.

Growth rate

Total Import: Paper and Paperboard (1,000 tons)

Import grades 2019E

➢ Annual growth rate increased 3.1% per year.

➢ Import of 2 million tons/year, mainly of high quality paper and paperboard that cannot be domestically produced.

Import: Newsprint, Printing & Writing paper (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate:

➢ Newsprint decreased 3.9% per year.

➢ Uncoated paper increased 2.1% per year.

➢ Coated paper decreased 3.0% per year.

Growth rate

Import: Paperboards (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate increased 3.9% per year:

➢ Containerboard decreased 3.8% per year.

➢ Boxboard increased 11.3% per year.

Growth rate

Import: Tissue, Other Paper and Paperboard (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate:

➢ Tissue paper increased 37.5% per year.

➢ Other P & PB increased 6.2% per year.

Growth rate

Total Export: Paper and Paperboard (1,000 tons)

➢ Annual growth rate increased 61.5 % per year.

➢ Export mostly container board, tissue paper and joss paper

Export grades 2019E

Export: Paperboards (1,000 tons)

➢ Annual growth rate increased 178.6% per year.

➢ Growth only for containerboard and mainly in the last three years.

Export: Printing & Writing, Tissue, Joss paper (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate:

➢ Uncoated paper decreased 17.8% per year.

➢ Tissue paper increased 10.7% per year

➢ Joss paper increased 6.7% per year.

Growth rate

Vietnam Forest in 2018 (1,000 ha)

➢ Planted forest: 70% are acacia and eucalyptus.

➢ Export of woodchip in 2018 reached 10.9 million tons.

Vietnam Pulp (1,000 tons)

➢ Production: BHKP.

➢ Import: Mainly BSKP, UKP, Mechanical Pulp, Fluff Pulp, Dissolving

pulp.

Annual growth rate:

➢ Capacity remained unchanged

➢ Production increased 1.9% per year.

➢ Consumption increased 5.5% per year.

➢ Import increased 7.5% per year.

Growth rate

Vietnam Recovered Paper (1,000 tons)

Annual growth rate:

➢ Utilization increased 30.3% per year.

➢ Domestic collection increased 18.5% per year.

➢ Import increased 42.8% per year.

Utilization rate and recovered rate

Company Capital Province Capacity (ton/year) Pulp type

An Hoa Vietnam Tuyen Quang 150,000 LBKP

Thai Binh Xanh Vietnam Quang Tri 700,000 BHKP

Vietracimex Vietnam Quang Nam 400,000 BHKP

Tan Mai Vietnam Kon Tum 70,000 BCTMP

Total capacity 1,320,000

Bleached chemical pulp investment projects in the period 2019 – 2026

Company Capital Province Capacity (ton/year) Paper type

Lee & Man FDI Hau Giang 1,000,000* Testliner, Medium

Cheng Loong FDI Binh Duong 700,000 Testliner, Medium

Marubeni FDI Ba Ria - Vung Tau 800,000 Testliner, Duplex

Chanh Duong FDI Hai Phong 1,200,000* Testliner, Duplex

An Viet Phat Vietnam Ba Ria - Vung Tau 1,000,000 Testliner, Duplex

Giao Long Vietnam Ben Tre 180,000 Testliner, Medium

Rang Dong Vietnam Khanh Hoa 70,000 Testliner, Duplex

Miza Vietnam Thanh Hoa 100,000 Testliner, Medium

Toan Cau Vietnam Hai Duong 70,000 Medium

Hoang Ha Vietnam Hai Phong 100,000* Testliner, Medium

Hung Ha Vietnam Ha Noi 100,000 Testliner, Medium

Tan Mai Vietnam Dong Nai 150,000 Testliner, Medium

Khoi Nguyen Vietnam Binh Phuoc 100,000 Testliner, Medium, Duplex

Others Vietnam 400,000 Testliner, Medium, Duplex

Total capacity 5,870,000

➢ FDI accounts for 63.0%

➢ Confirmed project: 3,570,000 tons

➢ Unconfirmed project (*): 2,300,000 tons

Containerboard and Boxboard investment projects in the period 2019 – 2026

• According to VPPA forecasts, in the next 5 - 10 years, the demand of all paper types will increase from 8 -

10%/year, particularly packaging paper may increase up to 12 - 15%/year.

• By 2030, Vietnam paper industry have to meet domestic demand (both in quantity and product type) and

export:

No. Product typeTotal quantity

(ton/year)

I Pulp

1 Bleached chemical pulp 1,500,000 ÷ 2,000,000

II Paper & paperboard

1 Printing & writing paper 500,000 ÷ 600,000

2 Containerboard and boxboard 12,000,000 ÷ 14,000,000

3 Tissue paper 400,000 ÷ 500,000

4 Special paper and paperboard 50,000 ÷ 100,000

Investment orientation of Vietnam paper industry

DIFFICULTIES IN COLLECTING & IMPORT RECOVERED PAPER

CHALLENGES OF THE VIETNAM PAPER INDUSTRY

➢ The recovery rate is still low, reaching less than 40%.

➢ The collecting of recovered paper is not systematic, and lack of support policies. People still do not have the habits of

classifying recovered paper at the sources, this situation is improving but slowly.

➢ Domestic collection of recovered paper only meets less than 50% of production demands with low fiber quality, high costs,

so it is necessary to import large volume of recovered paper for production.

➢ The import of recovered is controlled strictly: the import permits are only issued for the production units that directly use

recovered as materials for production.

➢ Vietnam’s recycle paper market is heavily dependent on market situation and policy of China.

➢ Have not got the set of National Standards for types of recycled paper yet.

➢ Weak competitiveness compared to other countries in the region due to small scale, outdated equipment and technology,

limited in terms of capital, labour quality, management and business experience.

➢ The fierce competition of FDI business enterprises and imported products.

➢ Not protected because most import taxes for all kinds of paper are 0%, while China still maintains import tariffs of 7%.

➢ Investment of FDI enterprises increased rapidly, but only focused on containerboard, which will create fierce competition in

the coming time.

➢ The imbalance between materials and production: Vietnam is the leading wood chip exporter in the world but has to import

large volume of pulp and paper products; Shortage of recycle paper and dependence on imported sources.

➢ Lack of suitable, consistent and long - term management policies.