ECONOMICS 301 PROJECT 2NOELLE, JANELLA, WESLEY

Extra Topics:

• Education Attainment of State and Federal Prisoners

• Murder Rates and Mental Illness• Murder Rates, Poverty and Gun Ownership

1. WEAPONS USED IN CRIMES

• Weapons Most Used in Murder Offenses• Types of Firearms Used• Weapons Used by Region

WEAPONS MOST USED IN MURDER OFFENSES

• The data are based on the aggregated data from agencies within each state for which supplemental homicide data (i.e., weapon information) were reported to the FBI

• Firearms are the most commonly used weapons in murder crimes, at 67.91%

• Knives and Other Weapons come in next with both about a 13% percentage.

• Large percentage of firearms use may influenced by the large scope of “firearms”• Firearms consists on handguns,

rifles, etc.

67.91%

13.06%

13.51%

5.53%Firearm

Knives/cutting instruments

Other Weapons

Hands, fists, feet

UCR Data

FIREARMS USED IN MURDER OFFENSES

• Rifles and shotguns account for a very small percentage of firearms used in murder offenses, at around 6% combined which makes sense since fewer people own the two types.

• Among firearms, a large percentage of murders 68.46% were committed with the use of a handgun.• Handguns are the most

commonly owned in the US• The probability that a murder is

committed with a handgun, given that the weapon is a firearm is around 46%

68.46%3.05%

3.23%

25.26% Handguns

Rifles

Shotguns

Firearms (unknown)

UCR Data

WEAPONS USED IN MURDER OFFENSES BY REGION (SUPPLEMENT)

• Consistently across the regions, numbers of murders that used knives, hands, fists, and other weapons are significantly low than the firearms use.

• As you can see on the graph, a large number of murders committed with firearms are in the southern states.

• This may be due to the cultural norms of the region which increases the ownership, and thus the use of firearms. UCR Data

MIDWEST SOUTH NORTHEAST WEST 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500Type of Weapons Used in Murder by Region

firearmsKnives orcuttinginstrumentsOtherweaponsHands, fists,feet, etc.2

2. LIFE EXPECTANCY

• Compared by Ages• Compared by Race and Gender• Death Rates by Age, Sex, and Race• Hispanics with the highest life expectancy

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY AGE

0 20 40 60 80 100 1200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

7877.6

58.9

40

22.6

8.8

2.3

Life Expectancy by Age• At a given age, life expectancy is the average number of years that is likely to be lived by a group of individuals exposed to the same mortality conditions until they die.

• In the US, the mean life expectancy is 78 years old according to 2008 CDC Data.

• At the age of 20, life expectancy of the average American is 58.9, and continuously decreases.

• Life expectancy may also be determined by sex, race and Hispanic origin, or other characteristics by using age-specific death rates for the population with that characteristic

• Collectively exhaustive since data/events includes all possible ages of the population.

Word Bank Data

CDC Data

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH BY RACE• Life expectancy at birth is also a measure of overall quality of life in a country and summarizes the mortality at all ages.

• Since the US has a very diverse population, a total average life expectancy does not measure the quality of life of different populations.

• According to CDC data, mean life expectancy of the black male population was 5 years lower than that of the white population, while the mean life expectancy of the black female population is 3.4 years lower than their white counterpart.

• The Hispanic population contradicts the idea that life expectancy measures quality of life for they have the highest mean life expectancy of 83.3 for females and 78 for males, although many are associated with poverty, lack of insurance, and education. CDC Data

White Male

White Female

Black Male

Black Female

Hispanic Male

Hispanic Female

75.9

80.8

70.9

77.4

78

83.3

Life Expectancy at Birth by Race and Gender

DEATH RATES BY AGE, SEX, AND RACE

CDC Data

• This significant difference in mean life expectancy of the black male population compared to their white counterpart can be explained by the high death rates which skews their mean life expectancy to the left.

• As seen on the graph, the black male population (yellow) has almost twice as much chance of dying compared to their white counterpart (dark grey) starting at their teenage years. This gap continues as they become older.

• The higher black male death rates may be due to increased risk in disease, homicide, violence, cancer, stroke, and perinatal conditions, especially those who reside in impoverished neighborhoods.

15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 490.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

57.7 114.6 131.3 148.5 173.2 240.4376.9

94.2173.7 205.5 232.7

272.2

351.4

532.5

Death Rates by Age, Sex, and Race

White Male White Female Black Male Black Female

3. ABORTIONS

• Percentages by Race and Age• Percentages by Income and Marital Status

ABORTION BY AGE AND RACE• As you can see by the peak of the graph, most abortions occur between ages 20 to 24 in women

Of those surveyed…• 36.9% were Non-Hispanic White, 36.2% were Non-Hispanic Black, 7.02% were Non-Hispanic Other, and19.8% Hispanic.

• When categorized by maternal race and race/ethnicity a consistent pattern existed for abortions by age across all race/ethnicity groups• The likelihood of abortions occurring

among adolescents who younger than 15 years is (0.3%–0.6%)

• Women aged 20 to 24 years (27.0%–33.5%) has a higher probability

<15 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 ≥400

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Abortions by Age

Total NH-White NH-Black NH-Other HispanicCDC Data

ABORTION BY MARITAL STATUS• 85% of all women having abortions are unmarried

•Of those surveyed, 36.9% were white, 36.2% were black, 7.02% were other, 19.84% were Hispanic

• Percentage of abortions was higher for non-Hispanic black women (92.2%) than for non-Hispanic white (84.0%) or Hispanic women (82.6%)

• A consistent pattern also existed for abortions by marital status across all race/ethnicity groups• higher likelihood of abortions occurring

among women who were unmarried (67.8%–92.2%) than among those who were married (7.8%–32.2%)

• However, for abortions among unmarried women, the percentage was higher for non-Hispanic black women (92.2%) than for non-Hispanic white (84.0%) or Hispanic women (82.6%)

NH-White

NH-Black

NH-Other

Hispanic

Total

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000

Married vs Unmarried

Married UnmarriedCDC Data

ABORTION BY INCOME

• 42% of women who got an abortion lives 200% or more above the poverty line while 15.9% of women surveyed are 200% or more above the poverty line.

• Thus, likelihood of a woman to get an abortion if they are above the poverty line by 200% or more is around 7%.

• 65.4% of women who is below the poverty line got an abortion while the 31.1% of women at below the poverty line.

• Thus, the probability that a women gets an abortion given that they are below the poverty level (100%) is around 20%

CDC Data≥2 0 0 1 0 0 - 1 9 9 <1 0 0

42.426.5 31.1

15.9

18.6

65.4

Likelihood of Getting an Abortion Based on Poverty

Percentage of Women% of those women who got an abortion

4. MURDER RATES FOR THE MOST POPULOUS STATES

• New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, Houston

MURDER RATES OF THE MOST POPULOUS AREASIn Order:

1. New York is at 3.9% with a population of 8,175,133 million.2. LA is at 6.7% with a population of

3,792,621 million.3. Chicago at 15.1% with 2,695,596 million.4. Houston at 10.9% with 2,100, 263 million.5. Philadelphia 15.9% with 1,526, 006 million.

• Although New York has the highest population, it has the lowest amount of murders compared to the other four cities. • Number of population may

understate the crime rate if not counted properly

20072008

20092010

20112012

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Houston Police DeptLos Angeles Police Dept

Philadelphia Police DeptChicago Police Dept

New York City Police Dept

Murder Rate per 100,000: 2007-2012

Houston Police Dept Los Angeles Police Dept Philadelphia Police DeptChicago Police Dept New York City Police Dept

UCR Data

5. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

• Variation Across States in Primary, Secondary, and College Education• Proportion of the Population with a Bachelors Degree

SECONDARY EDUCATION ATTAINMENT BY STATE

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

88.2 89.1

Percentages of Secondary Education Attainment by State0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.020.0

10.9 11.9

Percentage of those Who Only Completed Primary Education• Educational attainment refers to the highest level of education that an individual has completed. Each plot on the graph represents a state

• The mean percentage of American who complete education less than high school is 10.9% while the median is 11.9%. This indicates an almost normal distribution in primary education attainment by state.

• In secondary education as well, mean of 88.2% and median of 89.1% are very close to each other. This percentage by state also illustrates an almost normal distribution in educational attainment.

• Another indication that attainment of primary and secondary education by state demonstrates a normal distribution is the calculated skew of each data set.• Secondary education had a negative skew of -.451 while primary education had a positive skew of .244.

• We can only assume it is close to a normal distribution after applying Chebysheff’s Theorem. We can be 89% of data points to lie within 3 standard deviations from the mean. If we assume that it has a full normal distribution,

• Attainment of primary education and secondary education has an intersection since both events include “primary” / elementary school attainment.

NCES Data

SECONDARY EDUCATION ATTAINMENT BY STATE AND RACE

NCES Data

• Although educational attainment has a normal distribution in the country, percentages of people who complete high school differ by race. This differentiation in race is consistent as we look through each state (each point on the graph).

• The white population (blue) has the highest average percentage of secondary educational attainment at 91.9%. • A standard deviation of 3.08 indicates

a small variation of this percentage between states.

• As you can see on the graph, percentages are highly concentrated above the 90% mark.

• Hispanics (yellow) have the lowest average percentage of people completing a high school education, at 68.1%• A standard deviation of 9.84 indicates

a higher variability of this percentage across states. This can be seen on the graph that the Hispanic rates are more spread out compared to the White rates.

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

Percentage of Secondary Education Attainment by Race and State

Race White Race Black Race Hispanic Race Asians

BACHELORS DEGREE ATTAINMENT BY STATE• The average percentage of Americans attaining a bachelors degree is 29.4%

• Bachelor degree attainment from each state has a slight right skew, with the median being 28.3% and the mean is 29.4.%

• As you can see on the graph, slightly more data points lie below the 30% mark. Thus, the tail to the right may be due to the outliers affecting the mean which are the 54% bachelors degree attainment in the District of Columbia and the 40.1% in Massachusetts.• z-score: D.C. percentage is 4.17 standard

deviations away from the mean, indicating its far right position.

• z-score: Massachusetts percentage is 1.97 standard deviations away from the mean, indicating its slight right position.

• Range of the data is 35.7 due to outliers, but standard deviation is 6 indicating that the average spread of each data point is close to the mean. Most of the states are close to the mean bachelors degree attainment rate in the US of 29.4%.

•Additionally, 50% of that data lies between the values 32.3 and 26, indicating a small range of 6.3, because IQR is not affected by outliers.

NCES Data0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

40.1

54.5

Percentage of those with a Bachelor's Degree of Higher per State

6. BURGLARY, AUTO THEFT, AND ROBBERY

• What are the odds of being a victim of burglary?• Would my odds change if I owned a home and/or a car?

WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF BEING A VICTIM OF A BURGLARY, AUTO THEFT, OR ROBBERY IN THE US?

• Your odds of being a…• Victim of burglary

0.67%• Victim of auto theft

0.23%• Victim of robbery

0.11%• Rates are determined

by taking the national average, comparing by state

V io le n t C r i m e R o b b e r ie s P r o p e r ty C r i m e B u r g la r y A u to T h e f t12

.14

3.55

89.7

5

21.0

4

7.21

# of incidents (by 100,000)

WOULD MY ODDS CHANGE IF I OWNED A HOME AND/OR A CAR?

Odds of… Burglary 2011: 2.8% Auto theft rate 2011: 1.4% Home ownership & Burglary: 1.7%

2.8% > 1.7% = less likely to be burglarized if you own a home

Home ownership & Auto theft: 0.011% 1.4% > 0.011% = less likely to be an auto theft

victim if you own a home If you owned a Honda Accord in 2014,

you’re more likely to get your car stolen, than someone with a Nissan Maxima.

Car Burglary Instances by Maker/ Model

Honda

Accor

d

Honda

Civic

Ford P

ickup

(Full

Size)

Chev

rolet

Picku

p (Ful

l Size

)

Toyota

Camry

Dodge

Picku

p (Ful

l Size)

Dodge C

arava

n

Nissan

Altim

a

Acura

Integr

a

Nissan

Maxim

a0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,00051,290

43,936

28,68023,196

14,60511,07510,483 9,109 6,902 6,586

7-B. GUN OWNERSHIP, MURDER, AND POVERTYTHE CORRELATION

HOW PEOPLE MURDERED ANNUALLY IN THE US?

4.3% of Americans were murdered in 2011 Top 10% of States that have the highest

murder rates: District of Columbia 15.9 (Outlier) Louisiana 10.8 Alabama 7.2 Mississippi 6.5 Maryland 6.4 Michigan 6.4

The South was the region with the highest murder rates.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Murder Rates

UCR Data

WHAT ARE THE GUN OWNERSHIP RATES ACROSS THE US?

32.9% of Americans legally own a gun

The South has the highest concentration of gun ownership.

45.1% of states have a 1 and 3 chance of owning a gun 23/51 states lay within 10% of the

top murder rates (< 33%) Mean= 32.95 Median = 32.2

Skew=0.101 We can assume the distribution is

normal, which, according to the empirical rule, 68% of the data lies within 1 standard deviation away from the mean.

Delaware

New Yo

rk

New Ham

pshire Ohio

Califo

rniaMain

e DCOreg

on

Pennsyl

vania

N. Caro

lina

Verm

ont

Oklaho

maUtah

Arizon

a

Indian

a

Color

ado

S. Dako

ta

Minneso

ta

Tenne

ssee

Mississ

ippi

Louisia

nna

N. Dako

ta

New Mexi

co

Wyoming

Idaho

Alaska

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Gun Ownership Rates

UCR Data

WHAT % OF PEOPLE ARE IN POVERTY IN THE US?

14.3% of Americans are below the poverty line

Normally Distributed: Mean =14.3 Median = 14.25

“The SPM extends the official poverty measure by taking account of many of the government programs designed to assist low-income families and individuals that are not included in the current official poverty measure.” Biased of the collection of data based

on the government definition of poverty The South has the highest

concentration of impoverished individuals and/or households.

0

5

10

15

20

25

Distribution of Poverty Rate by State

Census Data

CORRELATION BETWEEN GUN OWNERSHIP, POVERTY, AND MURDER RATESCorrelations between: • 4.3% of Americans were murdered in 2011• 32.9% of Americans legally own a gun• 14.3% of Americans are below the poverty line

• Given that you live in a seriously impoverished area, you have a 59% likelihood of getting murdered.

•If you legally own a gun, you’re 14.6% more likely to commit a murder.

• If you legally own a gun and live in poverty, your likelihood of getting murdered increases to 18%

• Data shows the intersection of events of gun ownership and murder.

0 10 20 30 40 50 600.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0 Dispersion of Rates by State

Rate Murder Linear (Rate Murder)Rate Poverty Linear (Rate Poverty)Rate Gun Ownership Linear (Rate Gun Ownership)Census Data

7-C. GUN VIOLENCE AND MENTAL ILLNESSTHE CORRELATION

7-B. GUN VIOLENCE AND PERCENTAGE OF INCIDENTS

26%

54%

1%9

%4%2%4%

Percentages of Incidents

Deaths

Injuries

Mass Shootings

Officer involved shoot-ings

Home Invasions

Defensive use

Accidental shootings

Gun Violence in 2015Total number of incidents

41,853

Number of deaths 10,564

Number of injuries 21,462

Mass Shootings 273Officer involved shootings

3,513

Home Invasions 1,784Defensive use 960Accidental shootings 1,495NCIS Data

7-B. POPULATION WITH MENTAL ILLNESS (SUPPLEMENT)

• According to the CDC, Mental illness refers collectively to all diagnosable mental disorders including sustained abnormal alterations in thinking, mood, or behavior associated with distress and impaired functioning.

• Studies report that 25% of all U.S. adults have a mental illness and that nearly 50% of U.S. adults will develop at least one mental illness during their lifetime.

0 10 20 30 40 50 600.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

17.68%

14.66%

22.35%

Percentage of Population with Mental Illness

CDC Data

CORRELATION BETWEEN GUN OWNERSHIP, MENTAL ILLNESS, & MURDER RATES

Alaba

maAla

ska

Arizon

a

Arkan

sas

Califo

rnia

Color

ado

Conn

ecticu

t

Delaware

District

of Co

lumbiaFlo

rida

GeorgiaHaw

aiiIda

hoIllin

ois

Indian

aIow

aKa

nsas

Kentu

cky

Louisia

naMain

e

Marylan

d

Massach

usetts

Michiga

n

Minnesot

a

Mississ

ippi

Missou

ri

Montan

a

Nebras

ka

Nevada

New Ham

pshire

New Je

rsey

New Mexi

co

New Yo

rk

North C

arolina

North D

akota

Ohio

Oklaho

ma

Oregon

Pennsyl

vania

Rhod

e Isla

nd

South

Carolina

South

Dakota

Tenness

eeTex

asUtah

Verm

ont

Virgin

ia

Washing

ton

West Vi

rginia

Wiscon

sin

Wyoming

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

murder gun ownership mental illness

7-A. PRISONERS’ EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTCORRELATION BETWEEN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND INCARCERATION

• State and Federal Prison Inmates compared to the General Population• Prison Inmates, Education, and Race• Prisoners’ Educational Attainment by Offense• High Percentage of GED Attainment

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRISON INMATES• 22% of the population attained a

college degree, but the probability that a state prison inmate attained a college degree is 2.4% while the probability of a federal prison inmate attained a college degree is 8.1%.

• This higher probability in federal prison who attained a college degrees may be due to the fact that prisoners in federal prison have different offenses such as white-collar crime.

• Probability that prison inmate has a GED is around 23% for a Federal Prison Inmate, and around 28% for a State Prison Inmate.

Department of Justice Data

8th grade or less

Some high school

GED *

High school diploma

Postsecondary/some college

College graduate or more

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Educational Attainment of Prison Inmates Compared to the General Population

General Population Prison Inmates Federal

PRISONERS’ EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY RACE

Department of Justice Data

• The probability that the white person from the general population attained a college degree is 23.4% in 1997. On the other hand, the probability that a white prisoner attained a college degree is 1.9%.

• The probability of the black general population attained less than 8th grade education is 2.3 % while prison inmates have 9.9%

• The probability that the white prisoner only completed high school is 61% while the probability of a white person in the general population will complete only high school is 32.1%

• The probability that the Hispanic prisoner attained a college degree is 1.4% while the probability of the Hispanic general population attained a college degree is 8.9%

• Thus events of incarceration and educational attainment are statistically dependent. Educational Attainment is correlated to the probability of being incarcerated.

Gen. Population

State prison inmates

Gen. Population

State prison inmates

Gen. Population

State prison inmates

Whi

teBl

ack

Hisp

anic

9.6

17.8

13.3

34

20.4

27.7

32.1

61

40.5

47.9

27

41.6

30.7

9.3

32.4

7.1

22.8

5.3

23.4

11.5

8.9

9.9

9.9

20.9

24.1

Educational Attainment of Prison Inmates and General Population by Race

8th grade or less Some high school High school diploma Postsecondary/some college

PRISONERS’ EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY OFFENSE

• Prison inmates who attained some high school education has a higher chance of being involved in a drug crime, at 31.6%

• This may be due to high school students having a higher risk and access to substances around their teenage years.

• There is a large percentage of prison inmates who attained a GED and committed a violent crime.

8th grade or less

Some high school

GED

High school diploma

Postsecondary/some college

College graduate or more

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

25.9

30.132

Educational Attainment of State Prison Inmates by Offense

Offense Violent Offense PropertyOffense Drug Offense Public-order

Department of Justice Data

REASON FOR HIGH GED ATTAINMENT

S i n c e a d m is s i o n O th e r i n c a r c e r a t i o n O u ts id e p r i s o n / j a i l

8.3

17.4

9.1

9.4

14

9.4

TIME/Place of GED AttainmentState Federal

• 31.4% of prison inmates (states 17.4) and (federal 14) attained their GED during a prior prison sentence through correctional facility programs.

• 17.7% attained after this current admission in prison.

Department of Justice Data