BUILDING STRONG®

Ecological Modeling Workshop USACE ERDC Science and Technology Direction and Solutions

Dr. Beth Fleming USACE ERDC CW Business Area Lead Director, USACE ERDC Environmental Laboratory 30 July 2012

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG®

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Overview Why is Ecological Modeling Important?

► Environmental Quality Future Directions ► Civil Works R&D Vision and Strategic Plan

Ecological Modeling, Goals, and Objectives Direct Funded Research (a subset)

► System Wide Water Resources Program (SWWRP) ► Systems Thinking ► Engineering with Nature (EWN) ► Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS)

Applied Technology Solutions

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Biosciences

Computational Materials Science

Computational & Green Chemistry

Operationalizing Sustainability

Academia Warfighters

Collaborators - Stakeholders - Partners Synergized and Aligned Technology

Solutions

Emerging Science

Army Green – Army Strong

Nanosciences

EcoDynamics

Sustainable Army Ranges & Lands

Resilient Facilities & Infrastructure

Science & Risk Based Decision Analysis

Net-Zero Operational and Installation Footprint

Reduced Liabilities/ Total Ownership Costs

Government Labs

Industry Network Science

• Stability Operations

• Homeland Defense

• Fixed Installations

• Forward Operating Bases

Advance and Exploit Science & Technology to Maximize the Long-Term Contributions of Built and Natural Environments to Readiness & Operational Success

Secure & Scalable Energy Systems

Innovation – Development – Transition Environmental Quality/Installations (EQ/I)

Military Unique Requirements Simulation Supported

by Experimentation Systems Approach

Multi-Scale Applications

Cost Effective Solutions

First Principle Phenomenology

Natural Environment

Built Environment

MISSION

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USACE Business Areas Navigation and Hydropower Flood and Coastal, Water

Supply, Emergency Management

Environment - Restoration, Regulation, Stewardship

• FY13 Business Lines

Navigation

Environment Flood & Coastal

4 DRAFT

CW R&D at a Glance

Set-down

Set-down

Infrastructure Navigation

Integrated Water Resources

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5 DRAFT

BoR, DHS, FEMA, NOAA, USACE, USGS Strategic Plan Meeting, 22 Jun 2011

Overarching Strategy • Integrated Water Resources Management Cross-Cutting Strategies • Systems Approach • Collaboration and Partnering • Risk-Informed Decision Making • Innovative Financing • Adaptive Management • State-of-the-Art Technology

HQ USACE Emphasis for CW R&D

Draft Overarching R&D Strategy • State-of-the-art Technology through innovative science, strategic collaboration, and extensive partnering Cross-Cutting Strategies • Ready access to state-of-the-art technology • Adaptive Solutions • Multidisciplinary and Integrated Teams • Research for Tomorrow • Innovation • Technology Transfer

CW R&D Strategic Plan Development

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6 DRAFT

CW R&D Strategic Plan Development

Strategic Capability Topics • Infrastructure • Integrated Water Resources Technology

Strategic Enabling Topics • Advanced Macro and Micro Scale Sedimentation Knowledge • Impacts on the Environment • Planning Methodologies

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ERDC Vision for Ecological Modeling

Goals and Objectives: • Develop a robust , next-generation Ecological Modeling System (EMS) that:

• Accounts for the inherent complexity of natural systems • Facilitates multidisciplinary modeling and problem solving • Empowers users to rapidly develop and apply models of ecological systems in an efficient and scientifically-defensible manner

Technology Leaders for Ecological Modeling Systems

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Background

Hydrological Modeling

Ecological Modeling

Water movement and material transport, including chemical constituents

Population growth Movement of populations Movement of individuals Predator-prey dynamics Resource competition Disease and epidemic Reproduction/survival Genetic adaptation Migration Colonization/invasion Fire impacts Plant succession Habitat fragmentation

Communication Territorial behavior Food networks Population viability Commensalism Parasitism/Symbiosis Nutrient cycling Diversity/Community dynamics Connectivity/refugia Biotic response to chemicals Flocking/schooling behavior Response to disturbance Landscape dynamics

The Ecological Modeling Challenge:

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SWWRP

Riverine Models

Watershed Models

• Restoration Projects • Project Operations • Activities of Others

Estuarine and Coastal Models

Reservoir Models

Ecological

Models

• Improved science/engineering in water resources management – Right level of sophistication – At the correct scale(s) – All operating efficiently and productively

• Improved forecasting and adaptive management approaches keyed to

alternative analysis

• Products that empower USACE to engage multiple stakeholders through a collaborative decision support environment

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Systems Thinking…

“Understanding the performance of system elements in the individual and interconnected contexts, with their dynamic interactions, feedbacks, and perturbations, for characterizing attendant influences from internal and external stressors and drivers, to objectively quantify effects on relevant receptors in assessing and managing mission risks and uncertainties”.

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High-resolution watershed simulations

Operations SME team deliberation and rule- and decision-making

Agent-based operations research engine: • Interception of SME rule- and decision-making • Machine learning and diagnostic/predictive skill enhancement • Pattern analysis, recognition, and solution optimization • Simulation versus event reality hind-casting • Wisdom creation, institutionalization, and adviser

Probabilistic stressor and

scenario driver inputs

Agent wisdom adviser

Real-time field gauging

Systems risk and reliability performance visualization dashboard

River atlas knowledge base

Tradeoffs and consequences management

Water Resources Expert System Technology (WREST)

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Engineering with Nature (EWN)

Engineering With Nature is the intentional alignment of natural and engineering processes to efficiently and sustainably deliver economic, environmental and social benefits through collaborative processes.

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The Essential Ingredients of EWN

Use science and engineering to produce operational efficiencies ► Support sustainable delivery of project benefits.

Use natural process to maximum benefit ► To reduce demands on limited resources, minimize the

environmental footprint of the project, and to enhance the quality of benefits produced

Broaden and extend the benefits provided by projects ► To include substantiated economic, social, and

environmental benefits Use science-based collaborative processes to organize

and focus interests, stakeholders, and partners ► To reduce social friction, resistance, and project delays while

producing more broadly acceptable projects

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Example EWN Opportunities Strategic placement of sediments for beneficial use of dredged material

► Make use of hydrodynamics and natural transport processes to build near-shore habitats

Use of engineering features to focus natural processes ► To minimize navigation channel infilling and to transport and focus

sediments for positive benefits Cost-efficient engineering practices

► For enhancing the habitat value of infrastructure Optimizing the use of natural systems, such as wetlands and other features

► To reduce the effects of storm processes and sea level rise on shorelines and coasts

Science-based communications processes ► To significantly improve stakeholder engagement, collaboration and

communication

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Themes of Ecological Good and Services

Conceptual models to link restoration actions to predicted benefits Empirical, stochastic and mechanistic forecasts of ecosystem response to hydro-geomorphic manipulation Metrics for assessing benefits in different ecosystem types, across regions and applicable at the project and program scale Multi-criteria decision analysis to support risk-informed planning, recognizing local needs while ensuring national interest Environmental benefits quantification in alternatives and post- project evaluation to document contribution to NER account Ecosystem services using economic principals to account for social, economic, and ecological benefits Tools for programmatic assessment at regional and national levels

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Applied Solutions - Integrated Ecological Modeling

Focuses on quantitative, multiscalar modeling approaches to address issues in wetlands and coastal ecology.

Techniques include coupled hydrodynamic-ecological modeling, systems dynamics approaches, habitat suitability and spatial analyses, agent-based modeling, among others

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Applied Solutions - Oyster Modeling in Chesapeake Bay

Oyster reefs

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SHAPE Start with a HEC- RAS model Slope, flow, and x-sections

Highlight important habitat features (LWD, etc)

LWD

Transect data

Applied Solutions - Stream Habitat Analyses (SHAPE) Package

Supplement with aerial photos

Model bathymetry between transects

Develop MultiD environment Add important habitat features

Other data as available… - LIDAR - bathymetry surveys - habitat surveys

Consider desired future conditions

Alternative channel designs Meanders, bank protection, engineered log jams

Mesh modification

Analyze multiD simulation with risk- based biological model

Δ Flow, channel morphology etc

Resp

onse

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Reference

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Project site Conceptual design (one of five alternatives)

Model domain with features from conceptual design

Hydrodynamic output from ADH

Fish movement in CFD

Fish movement analysis as function of CFD and selection of an alternative

Applied Solutions - Implementation of SHAPE for stream restoration design - Baltimore District

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Questions

Providing Solutions to Tomorrow’s

Environmental Problems

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Background

What technical and scientific developments or innovations will be required?

Workshop: Advancing Ecosystem Modeling and Forecasting Capabilities

Develop a virtual environment that supports collaborative problem-solving and a multi-disciplinary modeling approach Develop models and integrated modeling approaches that are easily adaptable across a range of problem sets Facilitate community or participatory model development and application.

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Reimbursable Examples

Integrated Ecological Modeling – Norfolk District Stream Habitat Analysis Package

(SHAPE) – Baltimore District

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Current Path Forward JUL-DEC 12: PgMP development

► Foster continued collaboration with IWR-HEC, USACE Modeling

& Mapping Consequences CX, and science agencies (e.g., NOAA, USGS)

► Cultivate client-partner relationships with Miss River Watershed

(MRW) divisions/districts for: • Identifying WREST MRW general technical requirements • Developing WREST MRW framework model capability • Defining details of WREST MO River development and demonstration

► Near-term briefs to corporately inform on WREST:

• Watershed Operations Management Chiefs, MRW MSCs • MRC • CoPs • HQUSACE

JAN 13: PgMP execution initiation