Predicting NFL Team Performance, a Closer Look at Fantasy Football

ECE 539Presented: 12/14/2010

Joseph Quigley

ObjectiveTrain a multi-layer perceptron network to

predict the regular season records of NFL Football teams. (Within a range.)Wins in a season:

0-3 4-8 9-12 13-16

PurposeCreates a simple way to turn projected fantasy

football statistics into projected wins and losses.To have the ability to create hypothetical teams

and estimate how many games they would win in a season.What if the 2008 Lions (winless) went back in time

and traded defenses with the 2000 Ravens (one of the best defenses in recent history)?

What if the 2007 Patriots (only 16-0 team ever) traded defenses with the 2006 Redskins (one of the worst defenses in recent memory, and in the last 10 years of fantasy football)?

DataFantasy Football statistics (2005-2010):

QuarterbackRunning backWide ReceiverTight EndKickerDefense/Special Teams

Team Vector

What-if AnalysisCan’t just add another teams fantasy

defense/ST value.Needed to modify offensive production based

on turnovers.Calculated number of offensive possessions in

a season, then the fraction of fantasy points per possession.

Multiplied this by the difference in turnovers between the new and the old defense.

Preliminary What-if results:2008 Lions/2000 Ravens – Win: 6.6-9.6 games2008 Lions/2000 Broncos – Win: 7.4-10.4

games2007 Patriots/2006 Redskins – Win: 6.4-9.6

games.

Predicting the 2010-2011 Season

0-3 4-8 9-12 13-160

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2007-2009 AverageAverage Prediction

Number of Wins

Num

ber o

r Tea

ms

Questions?