W. Frisch 1

IT-Revolution -e-Commerce

Its Social and Economic Impacts

Walter FrischUniversity Vienna

Institute of Government and Comparative Social Science

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Issues Covered

Collapsing Channelsfailures, successes, the role of value gaps

Shifting Channelsmarketplace to marketspace, channel pressure, innovation

New Intermediariesexamples, impact, threats, market creation

Auction Models

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Key Issues

1. What are the key trends impacting the way organizations manage their channels?2. What will be the key channel managementissues for the marketing organization?3. What will be the key channel managementissues for the sales organization?4. What will be the key channel managementissues for the customer services organization?

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Channel Shifts

Shifts from physical to virtualhuman intermediaries replaced by interfaces to back-end systems (internal disintermediation - e.g. Dell, Online brokers, ATMs)physical distribution replaced by virtual distribution (e.g. Borders.com/Sprout)physical stores replaced by virtual stores (e.g. Egghead.com)physical content replaced by virtual content -

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Value Gaps

Value Added = A,Expense = X

Value Added = B,Expense = Y

customersretailerdistributorsource firm

Expense Savings = (X+Y) - Cost of New EffortValue Gap = (A+B) - Value Added by New Effort

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Disintermediation1

Price

Unit Sales

Producer Wholesaler Retailer Consumer

Producer Wholesaler Retailer Consumer

Producer Wholesaler Retailer Consumer

Price/Shirt Savings

$52.72

$41.34

$20.45

0%

28%

62%

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1

Channel Pressure

1

supplier distributor retailer customermanufacturer

Traditional Channels

Online Channels

supplier customermanufacturer

suppliermanufacturer customernew intermediaries

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1

Channel Extending Intermediaries

1

supplier customer

CEIsupplier

supplier

supplier

customer

customer

customer

Search for opportunities to add value: e.g. high customer search costs, switching costs, low customer satisfaction

Wield new power by consolidating traditional buyers & customers. Become the first-line interface with consumers. Example: Auto-By-Tel, Schwab OneSource, pcOrder.com

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1

Auction FormatsLiquidation Auctions: (e.g. Priceline, OnSale)

suppliers customersauction

1

Seek lowest price on widely available goods and services

1

1Seek first to maximize existing

channels & reduce inventory

disincentives to use auction shrink supply over time

Market Efficiency Auctions: (e.g. eBay, W.R. Hambrecht)

auctionAuction format is favored over the

inefficiency of existing channels

Seek access to unique / rare products or services

suppliers customers

incentives to use auction increase supply over time

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Network Externalities• A product or service becomes more valuable as it’s

installed base expands• Why do consumers care about installed base?

• Exchange opportunities• StabilityNet• Extrinsic, complementary benefits

More Exchange Opportunities - More Members

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Why are Markets for Network Goods Different?

• Market competition occurs very early and is particularly fierce

• Markets are ‘tippy’ and subject to bandwagons

• Markets exhibit monopolistic tendencies

• The ‘best’ technology or highest quality product doesn’t always win

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What is E-CommerceBusiness transactions conducted on the Internet and/or World Wide Web.

Not just financial transactions:Communications (e.g., e-mail)Information sharing (e.g., inter-organization design support)Automation of business processes (e.g., supply chain management)

Origins:Electronic Data InterchangePersonal ComputersNetworking Technologies (e.g., LANs, WANs)Graphical User Interfaces

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E-Commerce Impacts

Business-to-Business Transactions:Socio-Economic Impacts - Competitive pressures, government regulation, “frictionless capitalism”Technical Impacts - Firm expenditures on technology, advent of the knowledge worker

Business-to-Consumer Transactions:Socio-Economic Impacts - Consumer spending habits, improved information sourcesTechnical Impacts - Web access technologies, privacy and security

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Electronic Commerce in Business

Intra Organizational (within business)

Inter Organizational (business to business)

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Intra Organizational

What is an IntranetApplicationsAdvantages & Disadvantages

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Inter Organizational

Supply Chain ManagementInventory ManagementPayment Management

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Benefits of E-Commerce in Business to Business Transactions

Improved information sharing

Decrease in processing times due to

automation

Cost reductions

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Disadvantages of E-Commerce in Business to Business transactions

The increase in costly Lawsuits/Liability

Potential Loss of Trade Secrets and Proprietary InformationInternet Misuse and Loss of Productivity

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Affect of E-Commerce on Future Businesses

Even small businesses now have the networking ability to communicate with industries around the world at low cost. Larger companies will have advantages in terms of how much capital they have to invest in Web infrastructures.

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E-Commerce & ConsumersSocial-Economic Implications

New implications on marketing Redefining domestic and international boundaries of commerce.

Redefining market segmentation

Redefining uses of the Internet.

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A New Age of Marketers

The growth of online businesses.

Traditional retailers and manufacturers will have to go online to compete.Displacement of workers in the service industry.

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Consumer Power and the Internet

Increased access to suppliers and information.

Growth of new innovations and business alliances.

A computer literate society.

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Business-To-ConsumerConsumer’s Technical Concerns

What equipment do I need, and how much will it cost? How do I connect to the Internet?

How do I know my transaction is secure?

Businesses must also understand these issues when investing in their own E-Commerce infrastructures.

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Consumer’s Equipment Needs

Current computer systems cost between $1000-2000.Web TV offers a tuned down version of a computer for Web access. Cost: approx.. $200Future corporate sponsorships of consumer PCs based on advertising agreements.

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Consumer’s Telecom Needs

ISPs (Internet Service Providers).Traditional Content Providers (e.g., AOL)Cable companies, Phone companies

Communications infrastructure must be monitored and upgraded as more consumers conduct business on the Web.

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Consumer’s Security and Privacy Concerns

Encryption technologies, such as Secured Sockets, are critical for ensuring security and privacy with business transactions.

Consumers need to understand the criticality of these technologies and the consequences if unsecured transactions are conducted.

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Some Cool E-Commerce Sites

Clinton PolicyErnst & Young Study

Online Shopping:Amazon.comToys.comPriceline.com

Business-to-Business:Veritas Software

!

E-Commerce Information

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From location to channel in e-retailing

Traditional 3 Key Factors “Location, Location, Location”Put the shop in the right place and you are probably on to a winner

From “Brick and Mortar to Clicks and Mortar”Location is being translated into channelby interactive television mobile telephones and web sites“visual merchandising” has been transformed by relationship marketing and the creation of of finely-honed offers suitable for each specific channel and it´s niche customers

What are the needs to integrate IT systems so that shoppers can trade seamingless in real or virtual world´s - selecting goods on the web or TV and collecting returning or even paying for them at their nearest real-world stores?

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Multi-channel trading in the retailing sector “e-tailing”

Development in the retailing sector include multi-channel tradinge-shoppingcustomer relationship managementm-store developmentssupply chain and logisticsfulfillmentm-commerce (WAP-based /Wireless Application Protocol)PDA´s (PalmPilot organizers for home shopping schemes

Combined convenience storesCustomers can collect packages from the agents and leave unwanted goods there for collection. (with the help of web-based kiosk in the store shoppers can order a range of lines not stocked and collect them next day) customers can pay for the goods using credit cards at the stores cash desk.(remote cc-purchases without customers signature in Europe

still not allowed)

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Advantages in e-Tailing

Checking pricesSourcing informationOrdering basic linesEntering competitionBuying bargains at auctionsAsking fellow shoppers for their opinions on a stores service levels

- are likely to be electronic popular and influential“Over the next few years retailers will start to understand e-

tailing, just as they know all about selling in the bricks-and-mortar world”

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Real and e-World Operations

The Scope- A market place where shoppers can browse the web, buy in

store, order via the TV, Mobile, PDA´s or deliver unwanted returns to the nearest real-world branche

Developments necessaryRetail systems and logistics fully multi-channel

Early developments are call centers- that should be integrated with the web site i.e. a product

management platform (PPM) and software tools to create offers for TV, Web, CD-ROM, Paper, Catalogues, Wap-telephones and any other venues i.e. web enabled kiosk´s for value added service

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Fulfillment needs

Web sites allows suppliers to closely monitor product demand to increase market share + profitPlanning supplyBring products much faster to the market than any other competitor with Customer relationship management (CRM) technology.

Totally underestimated fulfillment needs is a basic lack of suchthings as merchandising replenishment planningCustomer-driven options will increase flexibility

Self-scanning, wireless systems and internet-linked developments are all aimed at improving customer service and satisfactionIn-store initiatives put technology into the hands of the customer

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Transformation of the Supply Chain

In the network world of e-commerce, collaboration is the name of the game for customers and suppliers.

Fully Integrated Fulfillment SystemsB2B PortalsTrading NetworksProcurement HubsProduction SourcingBuying Associations

The traditional adversarial relationship between customers and their supplier - with each trying to squeeze the other on price or delivery times - has been transformed in the recent years by “Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment” schemes where suppliers have access, via the internet, to the retailers database to check on promotional process, branch sales or forecasts in demand

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Quality of e-Business ServicesKey Vital Factors

Separating Winners from the LosersFulfillment Infrastructure for Excellence in FulfillmentIntegrated Systems for Store, Warehouse, Trading, Head-OfficeEconomies of Scale and Scope will be Critical once the latest batch of electronic channels comes online in force, i.e. WAP, PDA´s, and other Hybrid Devices such as Personal ScannersElectronic Retailing Platforms (ERP) Implementation

Application Service Providers (ASP´s) provide a managed service,everything a retailer may need to do business online.

Cost Reduction QuestionsSecurity QuestionsFirewallsSensitive Customer Data

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“SMEs” Small and Medium Sized Enterprises

Use business-to-business (B2B) exchange platforms The first generation of B2B trading systems reinforced EDI and was primarily designed to help large organizations improve theirprocurement processes

Internet Service Providers and Software Companies are now Providing Business-to-Business Trading Systems for Small to Medium Companies

IT companies have realized that e-business is not just for big buying organizations. SAP the German enterprise software vendor, has designed its new e-commerce strategy, called mySAP.com, with SMEs in mind.

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Employers switch from print to internet adverts

Recruitment advertising on the internet is so successful that some observers say ´print is doomed

Online application forms are a good way, of capturing biographical information in a structures way, but give no indication of softer issues of character such as communication skills.Recruitment online allows incorporation of screening algorithms to allocate scores for educational and other achievements, in a first-stage screening process enabling companies to arrange for appointments when others are still reading CVs.

Conducting tests online speeds up the recruitment process.Be completed under the supervision of an investigator who validates the identity of the candidate.

The human intervention in the screening process, checking, CV authenticity, references, and interviews, will always be

fundamental in ensuring quality.

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Electronic Bill Presentment and Payment (EBPP) Services

Billers three main challengesPresenting the BillProcessing the PaymentMinimizing the Credit-risk Associated with Internet Based Transactions

Not only must these processes be completely secure, they also need to be low cost, robust, scalable - and adaptive to the needs of emerging business models.

To date e-com has largely relied on the Creditcard to settle transactions over the web

Reputable sites employing secure sockets layer technology with data encryption have provided a level of security tolerable for low value transactions (Public Key Infrastructure to Authenticate Users)

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Workflow´s time has come “e-workflow” in B2B Commerce

Workflow over the road (Intranet) isworkflow operating in a traditional value chain where the emphasis is on the flow of material

Workflow over the wireto achieve competitive advantages to reduce time + cost in extranet market places with a heterogeneous infrastructure

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E-Commerce: Legal Firms and Services

Internets are set up for individual transactions, with Electronic Record replacing vast paper trails that big deal generateBoth parties having access via intranet. These allow clients to monitor cases - and legal fees - as well as dramatically reducing the amounts of paperwork.

In the new world, you are running front-office and back-office together, and companies can connect customers and supply chain

IT has changed the way in which companies operate on a global scale

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Motives of using e-Commerce

Competitive (Porter 1985)AdvantagesProduct DifferentiationBusiness ReengineeringNew Products and Services

ProfitabilityRationalizationReduction of Transaction Cost´sEfficiency Increase

Organizational (MacFarlan 1984)Speed up Business Transactions, Quality Control, LowerPricesIncreased Reachability, Integration to Production + DistributionIncreased operating efficiencies, Buyer Productivity, Reduced Acquisition Costs, Better Inventory Control

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Electronic Tradeable Products

Real GoodsConsumer Goods

Nominal Goods + ServicesMoney, Loans, Capital, Finance

ServicesDistributive Services DIN, ISO ISBN, ISSN; FiletransferProductive Services: Insurance, Legal CounselSocial Services: Lecture, HealthPersonal Services: Hotel, Travel, Entertainment, DrycleaningTelebanking, Pay TV, Films, Information Services

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The New Economy

“ The next information revolution will engulf all of modern society. But it has started and gone farthest in business enterprise. It is forcing us to redefine what business enterprise is and actually should be.”- Peter Drucker

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Some Driving Principles of TheNew Economy

1. Matter - It matters less.OLD: Land, Labor, Vapital = Value

NEW: Information = Infinite Value

Bits are more valuable than Atoms

2. SPACE - Distance is deadYour nearest customer ... And closest Competitor

Is just a mouse click away

3. TIME - It´s collapsing

4. PEOPLE - They´re the crown jewels (New Ideas, Training, Financial, Personal Capital, Personal Contacts,Practice)

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5. CROWTH - It´s accelerated by the network.Old Rule: Scarcity = Wealth

New Rule: Ubiquity = Wealth

6. VALUE - It rises with market share.

7. EFFICIENY - The middleman lives.

Infomediaries:- Provide Navigation; Not a Destination

- Expedite; Don´t Own

- Represent; Don´t Supply Inventory

- Aggregate; Don´t Create

- Are Catalysts; Not Participants

8. Markets - Buyers are gaining new power

and sellers new opportunity.

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New Rules for a New Economy

New Buyers

+ New Sellers

+New Marketplace

=New Rules for a New Economy

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Industries in Danger

TravelAuto SalesInsurance SalesSupply Chain ManagementNewspaper Classified Ads

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Industries most Affected

(% increase in number of online purchase 1999-2000)

-Travel + 302 %

-Music + 269%

-Cloting + 250%

-Auto Sales +216%

-Consumer Electronics + 205%

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• Establish successful risk-sharing partnerships with other Web sites.• Rather than focusing on how to replace existing saleschannels, selling organizations should seek ways to combinethem more effectively.• Creating an interactive customer service Web site will take twoto three years. Enterprises must deliver incremental capabilitiesevery three to six months to respond to customer demands and the competitive environment.• Building a customer service Web site for the sole purpose of saving money will not motivate customers to use the sitebecause it does not consider customer requirements.

Bottom Line MultichannelStrategies

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What´s Next ?

„Change is not merely necessary for lifeIt is life“

Alvin Toffler, futurist„In five years, there won´t be anyInternet companies, because they will all be Internet companies or they will die.“

-Andy Grove, futurist

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What is the Internet ?

A Network of NetworksTCP/IP - standard protocol for routing & transport

A medium of exchanging all form of digital datatext, graphics, audio, video, programs, faxes

An infrastructure for various servicese-mail (electronic mail)WWW (world wide web)FTP (file transfer protocol)UseNet newsgroups, PointCast, games, EDI, etc.

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Transmission Speeds

Bandwidthmeasure of transmission speed / capacity

Bits & Bytesbit - smallest form of computer memory - 1 or 0byte - 8 bits, roughly 1 character (Latin alphabet)

How do we measure speeds?bps - bits per secondKbps - kilobit, thousands of bits per secondMbps - megabit, millions of bits per secondGbps - gigabit, billions of bits per second

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How Many People Use the Internet?

We don’t knowNua’s best guess - about 201 million at 9/99Breakdown:

Region Users (millions)Canada & USA 112.4 millionEurope 47.15 millionAsia/Pacific 33.61 millionLatin America 5.29 millionAfrica 1.72 millionMiddle East 0.88 million

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Anatomy of an URL

URLUniform Resource Locator (web address)

http://www2.bc.edu/~frisch/directory/file.html

application protocol(http is assumed by current browsers).Others: FTP, NNTP

host computer(others@ BC:agora,www)

domain name,top level domain

user ID

directory file

case sensitive

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The DNS & IP Addresses

IP AddressUnique number identifying Internet computers. Expressed as four numbers between 0 and 255.ex: infoeagle.bc.edu = 136.167.2.146 (32 bit address)IPv6: 128 bit addressing, more efficient/faster, secure

DNS - Domain Name ServiceA distributed database used to translate domain names, into Internet Protocol (IP) Addresses.

Registry of an Internet domain name:currently in the US for $70 for two years (www.internic.net)

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Network Interconnections

1

dial-inusers (56.6 Kbps)

dormusers

officeusers

dorm LAN office LANmodem pool

web serverwww2.bc.edu

University Campus Network Backbone (10 Mbps)

(IP #s 136.167.xxx.xxx domain)

The Internet

local ISPmicrosoft.comwhitehouse.gov

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TCP/IP

TCP/IP - the Internet’s common languageTCP - Transmission Control Protocol. Breaks up transmissions (e-mail messages, web pages, etc.) into packets of no more than about 1500 characters each, checks the integrity of incoming packets, and reassembles packets on the other endIP - Internet Protocol. Routes packets.

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Packet Traffic

What’s in a packet?source addressdestination addresserror checking (checksum)time to liveoptions (timestamp, record route, etc.)your data!

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1

A Packet Switched Network at Work

packet11

RE-mail

message:Mr. Frisch,

I just wanted to let you know that I got a job based on the stuff I learned in your class...

packet1packet2packet3

E-mail message:packet2

Mr Frisch,I just wanted to let you know ...

R R packet1packet3

RRpacket2packet2

packet3 packet3R = router

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1

TCP vs. UDPTCP - perfect transmission is critical (e.g. e-mail)

TCP will request packets that are lost or damaged

The Internet

1

UDP - low latency is critical (e.g. RealAudio, Video, packet streaming)UDP = User Datagram Protocol

Latency matters - UDP will ignore packets that don’t arrive on time or in good shape

The Internet

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1

Circuit vs. IP Telephony1Circuit Switching

Internet Telephony (e.g. Net2Phone)

IP Telephony over Private Networks (e.g. Qwest)

64 Kbps circuit, guaranteed QoS (quality of service)

packets over the Internet, variable QoS

packets over private network, improved QoS

The Internet

Private IP Network

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Transmission Speeds

The last mile problemaccess to many consumers & businesses may be slow (e.g. 28.8... Kbps modem speeds)

The contendersfaster modems - (at ISP and user end; 56 Kbps)ISDN - (e.g. BellAtlantic; up to 128 Kbps)GEO Satellite (e.g. DirectDuo; 400 Kbps download)LMDS (e.g. CellularVision; 500 Kbps download)Cable Modems (e.g. MediaOne; 1.5 Mbps download)ADSL (e.g. AmeriTech; 1.5 - 7 Mbps download)

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1

Bandwidth Bonanza(download speeds only)

1.500

1.500

500

400

128

56

28,8

0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600

ADSL (Ameritech)

Cable Modem (MediaOne)

LMDS (CellularVision)

DBS (DirectDuo)

Bonded ISDN

56 Kbps

28.8 Kbps

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Fostering Speed & Ubiquity

•Caching servers•get content closer to customers•e.g. Akamai, Inktomi, Digital Island

•Dense Wave Division Multiplexing•prisms split fiber optic signal

•Wireless Access•WAP, i-mode, emerging 3G standards

•Integration of Wireless Devices•Bluetooth

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Theorie & Forschung In der Diskussion um die Auswirkungen von Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien auf die wirtschaftliche Leistungskoordination ist in jüngerer Zeit eine Konzentration der Arbeiten im Bereich industrieökonomischer Ansätze und der neueren Institutionenökonomie festzustellen. Schwerpunkte dieser Arbeiten waren und sind sehr oft die Transaktionskosten- und Agency-Theorie, ergänzt um Ansätze aus dem Porter'schen Wettbewerbsmodell.Weitere wichtige Ansätze für die elektronische Unterstützung desHandels sind auch im Bereich der traditionellen Marketingtheoriezu finden. Hier entwickelt sich unter dem Begriff des elektronischen Marketings eine neue Forschungsrichtung.

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Theorie & Forschung (II) Malone am MITwidmen sich der Erarbeitung einer ganzheitlichen Koordinationstheorie, von der auch neue Anstöße für den elektronischen Handel zu erwarten sind. Weitere Ansätze sind im Bereich makroökonomischer Auswirkungen des Informations- und Kommunikations-technologieeinsatzes und der Informationsökonomie zu finden .Im Bereich der Erforschung der Relationen zwischen den ökonomischen Charakteristika des lT-Einsatzes und relevanten Bereichen gängiger Wirtschaftstheorien werden Bemühungen unternommen.

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Ökonomische Charakteristika des IT-Einsatzes

Hohe Investitionen und substantielle Economies of ScaleLatente NetzwerkexternalitätenUnsicherheit bezüglich der Wirksamkeit des EinsatzesSignifikante Switching-Costs können für Anwender entstehenPotentiale zur Reduktion von Such- bzw. Kommunikationskosten für InformationenDa es sich beim elektronischen Handel um den Einsatz von Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien im wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Umfeld handelt, liegt es nahe, neben ökonomischen Theorien zumindest auch technisch orientierte Erklärungsansätze und Theorien beizuziehen. Im Gegensatz zum ökonomischen Bereich existieren allerdings keine technologie-orientierten Theorien und Forschungsrichtungen, die speziell aufden (elektronischen) Handel ausgerichtet sind.

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Ansätze offener Systeme

Von wesentlicher Bedeutung, nicht nur für den elektronischen Handel, sind Ansätze um offene Systeme im speziellen um offene Informations- und Kommunikationssysteme. Von herausragender Tragweite ist das in diesem Zusammenhang entstandene ISO/OSI-Referenzmodell für offene Kommunikation. Dem Wunsch bzw. der generellen Tendenz nach vermehrter Öffnung von Märkten muß auch aus kommunikationstechnologischer Perspektive Rechnung getragen werden.

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Regulierungsmaßnahmen

Neben der technischen Offenheit, welche durch Aktivitäten internationaler Standardisierungsgremien gewährleistet wird, ist speziell für den elektronischen Handel die juristische bzw. rechliche Offenheit von Bedeutung . Diese kann sowohl durch entsprechende internationaleHandelsgesetzgebung als auch durch staatliche Regulierungsmaßnahmen erreicht werden. Mit der weiteren Diffusion von UN/EDIFACT findet auch ein kleiner Schritt in Richtung allgemeiner Benutzeroffenheit von elektronischen Handelssystemen statt.Das Grundproblem des (elektronischen) Handels besteht darin, dieAktivitäten bzw. Leistungen der beteiligten Akteure in geeigneter Form durch Kommunikationsprozesse zu koordinieren.

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Grundmodelle der ökonomischen Leistungskoordination

Bei den grundlegenden Formen der wirtschaftlichen Leistungskoordination wird in der Regel zwischen den beiden traditionellen Möglichkeiten bzw. Modellen der planerischen Hierarchie und des preisgesteuerten Marktes unterschieden [Coase] [Williamson]. Neuere Ansätze identifizieren zusätzlich auch Unternehmensnetzwerke als ein drittes, grundlegendes Koordinationsmodell‘ .Unter Hierarchien sind in erster Linie die traditionellen Organisationsstrukturen von Unternehmungen zu verstehen, in denen in der Regel durch Managemententscheide koordiniert

wird.Im Sinne der neoklassischen Preistheorie koordinieren die Teilnehmer im idealen Markt mit perfektem Wettbewerb ihr Angebots- und Nachfrageverhalten frei und unabhängig über den Preismechanismus.

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Unternehmensnetzwerke

Verschiedentlich wurden Versuche unternommen, solche Netzwerke nach bestimmten Kriterien zu kategorisieren. So wird z.B. zwischen strategischen Allianzen und Kooperationen, Joint Ventures, ValueAdded Partnerships, Kartellen, Clans und operativen Netzwerkenunterschieden. Ein allgemein akzeptierter Klassifikationsansatz hat sich diesbezüglich aber noch nicht herausgebildet. Malone ein anfänglicher Verfechter der Markt-Hierarchie-Dichotomie, nennt sie allerdings ,,Adhocracy" und wendet es vorwiegend auf innerbetriebliche Koordinationsprozesse an. Williamson tritt mit seinen ,,hybrid organizations" ebenfalls verstärkt in die Diskussion um Unternehmensnetzwerke ein.