EBO – language, meaning and the effects- based approach

Authors: Simon Ng and Donald Lowe

Presenter: Thea Clark

Defence Science and Technology Organisation

Department of Defence, Australia

EBO – language, meaning and the effects-based approach

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EBO – the fundamentals

• The general aim of EBO is to maximise effectiveness, better integrate activities and minimise wasted effort

• The basic idea of EBO is not new, but the language and formalisms are

• But do we agree upon what EBO and effects really mean and how best to describe them?

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What is understood by effects and EBO?Are Effects …

• impacts?• consequences?• end-states?• outcomes?• objectives?• goals?

Is EBO …• a process?• an approach?• a methodology?• a plan?• a concept?

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What is EBO?Sample definitions

“Effects-based operations are coordinated sets of actions directed at shaping the behavior of friends, foes, and neutrals in peace, crisis, and war”

(Ed Smith, 2002)“effects-based operations: military actions and operations designed to produce distinctive and desired effects through the application of appropriate movement, supply, attack, defense, and maneuvers”

(Mann et al., 2001)“effects-based operations represent the identification and engagement of an enemy’s vulnerabilities and strengths in a unified, focused manner, and uses all available assets to produce specific effects consistent with the commander’s intent.”

(Batschelet, 2002)Effects-based operations are “actions that change the state of a system to achieve directed policy aims using the integrated application of select instruments of power.”

(US JFCOM, 2003)

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What are Effects?Sample definitions

“An effect is a result or impact created by the application of military or other power.”(Ed Smith, 2002)

“effects: the physical, functional, systemic, and/or psychological outcomes, events, or consequences that result from specific military action.”

(Mann et al., 2001)An effect is “the cumulative consequence across the security environment of one or more actions (or tasks) taken at any level with any instrument of Government”

(UK JDCC, 2003)“An effect is, simply, ‘the physical and, or behavioral state of a system that results from a military or non-military action or set of actions.’ ”

(US JFCOM, 2003)

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Kinds of effects (Smith)

(after Figure 40, Smith (2002))

Psychological attritionPhysical Attrition

Foreclosure

Chaos / EntropyChaos / Entropy

ShockDestruction

PsychologicalPhysical

Effects

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Kinds of effects (Davis)

(after Figure 2.3, Davis (2001))

Paralyze, SlowDisrupt processes

Influence

Divert, confuseKill people

DemoralizeDamage equipment, systems

BehavioralPhysical

Effects (by type of target)

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Kinds of effects (Mann et al.)

(after Figure 4, Mann, Endersby and Searle (2002))

CascadingPhysicalCumulative

PsychologicalPsychological

Systemic

CollateralCollateral

FunctionalFunctional

Indirect (2nd/3rd order)Direct (1st order)

Effects (linked to type of outcome)

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Kinds of effects (Williams)

(after Figure 3, Williams (2002))

Effects

DesirableDesired

UndesirableUndesired

UnpredictedPredicted

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Kinds of effects (UK JDCC)

after UK JDCC (2003)

• An Effect - “The cumulative consequence across the security environment of one or more actions (or tasks) taken at any level with any instrument of Government”

Actions can be focused on one or more dimensions• On any actor (Red, Blue, White)• Generated by MEANS• On Will and/or Capability• Intended, Unintended, desired, un-desired, expected, un-expected, +ve and -ve

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Aim

• To develop a basis set of EBO terms and definitions to provide a foundation upon which an EBO language can be constructed

• This set should be• clear and precise• self-consistent• useable at different scales (tactical to strategic) i.e. fractal• universally applicable

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The (prototype) Axioms

1. States are descriptions of the value of an entity at a moment in time1.1 An entity is an object that can be described as existing in a defined state

2. A delta is the difference between two states of an entity3. An action produces an effect that moves an entity from one state to another

state4. A system is defined by one or more entities that interact with one another5. An effect is any change in the state of an entity caused by an action on the

system of which the entity is a part5.1 An effect removes a delta

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Properties

• States may be desirable or undesirable• Effects may be intended or unintended• Actions may be directly causal or indirectly causal• States, effects and actions may all be anticipated or unanticipated

• An objective is a state of an entity that is desirable and not yet attained• A constraint is a state of an entity that is desirable and to be maintained

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Comparisons• The construct essentially utilizes the same properties also used by the UK JDCC and Williams

• Effects and actions are explicitly defined and the properties are further refined, ascribing them specifically to one or more of these terms

• The descriptions of Davis and Smith are seen to be higher-level effects concepts - they are more complex and richer descriptions of effects that can be distilled using this framework. The basic categorizations of physical and psychological/behavioural effects would be rephrased as the change of state of an entity e.g.

• "Foreclosure" (Smith) could be viewed as the inability for certain psychological states of entities being able to be realized (implying that certain effects cannot occur)• "Disrupt Processes" (Davis) can be viewed as the state of entities (as a collective system) not physically functioning at capacity

• Mann, Endersby and Searle’s concept of “direct effects” would be instead described as actions that directly produce a change of state

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Example: initial condition of scenarioScenario

• A nation, Green, is in crisis.• Green is struggling under the weight of ethnic tensions between various red ad orange factions and social failure that is compounded by bureaucratic incompetence.• Blue has been asked to intervene in order to help restore law and order and to address the wider socio-economic problems besetting the country.•An analysis has been performed on the situation in order for Blue and Green to have a whole-problem picture.

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Example: identifying the significant entitiesIdentify the main entities

• The main entity of concern to Blue is readily apparent:a) Regional Stability

• Other entities of relevance to the situation within Green territory are:b) Level of government corruption in Greenc) Ability of Green government to maintain law and orderd) Seriousness of social problems in Greene) Effectiveness of Green government institutionsf) Level of ethnic conflict in Green

• More entities directly impact on the key entities above:g) Migrantsh) Level of aid giveni) External confidence in Green government handling of aidj) Resolve of Green government to stamp out corruptionAnd so on….

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ExampleDevelop an influence diagram linking entities

b Level of government corruption

h Level of aid given

Level of investment

a Regional stability

c Ability to maintain

L&O

i External confidence in government handling of funds/aid

e Effectiveness of

government institutions

Level of social

services provided

j Green resolve to stamp out corruption

d Seriousness of social problems

Utilisation of natural resources

Level of development

activity

Number of jobs

f Levels of ethnic

conflict

Population

g Ethnic migrants

into Green

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Link the current and future status of each entity via an effect

b0 Level of government corruption

HIGH

h0 Level of aid given

LOW

Level of investment

LOW

a0 Regional stabilityLOW

c0 Ability to maintain

L&OPOOR

i0 External confidence in government handling of funds/aid

LOW

e0 Effectiveness of


LOW

Level of social services provided

MODERATE

j0 Green resolve to stamp out corruption

LOW

d0 Seriousness of social problems

HIGH

Utilisation of natural

resources MODERATE


activity MODERATE

Number of jobs LOW

f0 Levels of ethnic conflictMODERATE

PopulationMODERATE

g0 Ethnic migrants

into Green HIGH

b0 Level of government corruption

LOW

h0 Level of aid given

ADEQUATE

Level of investment

ADEQUATE

a0 Regional stabilityHIGH

c0 Ability to maintain

L&OGOOD

i0 External confidence in government handling of funds/aid

HIGH

e0 Effectiveness of


HIGH

Level of social services provided

ADEQUATE

j0 Green resolve to stamp out corruption

HIGH

d0 Seriousness of social problems

LOW

Utilisation of natural resources GOOD


activity GOOD

Number of jobs HIGH

f0 Levels of ethnic

conflictLOW

PopulationSUSTAINABLE

g0Ethnic migrants

into Green SUSTAINABLE

CURRENT STATE FUTURE DESIRED STATE

ELIMINATE government corruption

MINIMISE REQUIREMENT

for aid given

TARGET investment

INCREASE regional stability

IMPROVE ability to maintain

L&O

IMPROVE external

confidence in government handling of funds/aid

IMPROVE effectiveness

of government institutions

IMPROVE provision of

social services

STRENGTHEN green resolve to

stamp out corruption

ELIMINATE social

problems

IMPROVE utilisation of

natural resources

INCREASE development

activity

INCREASE number of

jobs

REDUCE levels of ethnic conflict

ADJUST Population

ADJUST Ethnic migrants into

Green

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Example: identify intervention points


MINIMISE REQUIREMENT

for aid given

TARGET investment



L&O

IMPROVE external

confidence in government handling of funds/aid



IMPROVE provision of

social services

STRENGTHEN green resolve to

stamp out corruption

ELIMINATE social

problems

IMPROVE utilisation of

natural resources


activity

INCREASE number of

jobs


ADJUST Population

ADJUST Ethnic migrants into

Green

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Example: identify loops


TARGET investment

INCREASE Regional stability


L&O

IMPROVE external

confidence in

government handling of funds/aid



IMPROVE social

service provision

ELIMINATE social

problems


activity

INCREASE number of

jobs in Honiara

REDUCE levels of ethnic

conflict

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

LOOP

POLITICAL EFFECTIVENESS

LOOP

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Example: tackle the loopsExploration of possible actions

• The primary effect is to:• Effect <INCREASE regional stability>

• Intervention points for BLUE:• Effect <IMPROVE ability to Maintain L&O> • Effect <RAISE level of foreign investment in Green>• Effect <IMPROVE effectiveness of Green government institutions>

• Directly causal actions for effect <IMPROVE ability to Maintain L&O>

• Direct military or policing support to Green government enforcement of Law and Order.• Psychological intervention to deter disorderly and illegal behaviour

• Indirectly causal actions for effect <IMPROVE ability to Maintain L&O>• Aid programmes to target socio-economic loop (A)

TARGET investment



L&O


activity

INCREASE number of

jobs


A

Socio-economic loop

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Some key questions

• Does it make sense?

• Where does it break?• Is it clear and precise?• Is it sufficiently coherent and comprehensive?• Is it universally applicable?• Is it scalable?

• Is it useful?

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Finally, something to ponder …

For Perfect EBO, we require …• Perfect information / awareness / knowledge of the system• Perfect understanding of the system and system dynamics• Perfect execution / cause-effect

• Obviously, this is unattainable, so …How do we do “Good Enough” EBO?

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Further Information

• Dr Donald [email protected]• Dr Simon [email protected]

Documents

EBO – language, meaning and the effects- based approach