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EBFM and Modelling. Beth Fulton CSIRO Marine Research. Australian Modelling Successes . Successes and failures with all types (just tools) single species (linked) multispecies (target, bycatch, habitat). Multispecies Model Success. Sainsbury on Northwest Shelf - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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www.csiro.au
EBFM and Modelling
Beth Fulton
CSIRO Marine Research
EBFM and Modelling
Australian Modelling Successes
Successes and failures with all types (just tools)
— single species (linked)
— multispecies (target, bycatch, habitat)
EBFM and Modelling
Multispecies Model Success
Sainsbury on Northwest Shelf
— alternative hypotheses (identified time to reduce uncertainty)
— evaluated alternative long & short term strategies (& costs)
EBFM and Modelling
Australian Modelling Successes
Successes and failures with all types (just tools)
— single species (linked)
— multispecies (target, bycatch, habitat)
— Ecopath (fisheries-marine mammal overlap)
— ecosystem models (biophysical, multi-sector; Atlantis, InVitro)
EBFM and Modelling
Management Strategy Evaluation
Unifying factor in success = Management Strategy Evaluation
Process = consultative
— science, management and industry
Models (single species, multispecies, ecosystem)
EBFM and Modelling
Management Strategy Evaluation
Biophysical
Exploitation
Observation
Management
EBFM and Modelling
Management Strategy Evaluation
Biophysical
Exploitation
Observation
Management
EBFM and Modelling
MSE Reporting
StrategyIn
dica
tor
A B C D E I
II
II
I
IV
EBFM and Modelling
MSE Ecosystem Model - Atlantis
Biological and physical main processes and groups thought important in temperate marine
ecosystems
EBFM and Modelling
MSE Ecosystem Model - Atlantis0
50
150
250
750+
Sediment
Epibenthic
Pelagic
Within each cell have ecology (51 functional groups/species) and fisheries (32 fleets)
EBFM and Modelling
MSE Ecosystem Model - Atlantis
Biological and physical main processes and groups thought important in temperate marine ecosystems
Anthropogenic fishing (including discarding, habitat modification etc) other (changing nutrient loads, temperature profiles)
Fleet dynamics and management multiple fleets (ports, displacement, targeting, gear) management (closures, effort control, quotas, mitigation, changing gear,
changing practices)
Monitoring and assessment data from surveys and fisheries records (with error) common assessment models and index estimation
EBFM and Modelling
MSE Locations and Lessons
EEZ
Claimable shelf
Previous MSEOngoing MSE
Modelling lessons
— scales/focus
— formulations
Ecological indicators
— simpler = better
Data/monitoring gaps shown
Value of qualitative info
Trade-offs always involved
— highlights issues missed by assessments
Adds value to models
EBFM and Modelling
Issues For Discussion
Examples of models in EBFM
Changes in governance/policy/administration required
Models we’ve overlooked (e.g. from other fields)
New models/data required
— functional responses, interactions etc
— handling uncertainty
— fitting to data, making sure models and questions match