East Asian Peace - Presentation.pptx

8/14/2019 East Asian Peace - Presentation.pptx

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UNDERSTANDINGTHEEASTASIAN

PEACEInformal and formal conflict preventionand peace-building in the Taiwan Strait


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EASTASIA


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THETAIWAN

SITUATION

Stablepeace War

RELATIVE PEACE


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Is Taiwan a sovereign state of de jure independence? Or is it a

part of China to be reunified with the Mainland?

China: Only one China, and Taiwan is part of that China (ONE

CHINA PRINCIPLE) Taiwan: Independent nation separate from China

Ongoing; a rather intense conflict stalemated at a crisis level

However, cooperation and integration has proliferated with acommon goal towards stable peace

Some aspects of cross-strait relations have been peaceful

(especially the economic connection), whereas the diplomatic

situation is still in crisis mode

Issue: Taiwans legal and international status


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Mainland Chinese have conducted commercial

activities in Taiwan since 500AD

Yuan Dynasty (1271-1368): First Chinesegovernment was established in Taiwan

Qing Dynasty (1683): Annexed Taiwan to China,

made a province

Thereafter, Taiwan remained under Chinese rule

Historical context of the China-Taiwan relations


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1912: Dr. Sun Yat-sen of the Kuomintang party founded the

Republic of China (ROC: espoused democracy)

Three decades of warlordism and fragmentation followed,ending in a civil war between the ruling KMT and the

Chinese Communist Party

1949: Mao Zedong officially proclaimed the Peoples

Republic of China (PRC: communist)

Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT forces then withdrew from

the mainland to Taiwan and declared it as the provisional

headquarters of the ROC government

Roots of the Current Conflict


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The cross-strait conflict has ever since been stalemated at

a high level of conflict intensity

1970: The United Nations expelled the ROC and

recognized the PRC as Chinas legitimate representative

1979: The US shifted its recognition to the ROC, under the

premise that PRC was to resolve the Taiwan issue by

peaceful means

1980: Honeymoon periodrelations reached new positive

heights

One Country, Two System policy for peaceful reunification

Economic relations grew stronger

Roots of the Current Conflict


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The 1992 consensus: One China principlethere is only one

undivided China to which both the Mainland and Taiwan belong

The Lee Teng-Hui government broke off from the consensus:Taiwan not a part of China, but a state of its own.

Initiated the bidding for UN membership, visits to several

neighboring countries, and discouraged Taiwanese economic

relations with the Mainland

The Chen Shui-bian government: Taiwan is an independent

country, not a part of the PRC

The current status


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Chen was reelected, and relations between the two sides further

deteriorated

Mainland passed the anti-secession law which created a

legalistic framework for taking actions against Taiwan seeking de

jure independence

The US became the intermediary between the two sides

Political relations are increasingly strained, but there is an

increased engagement in the economic sphere

PRC is content with the status quo and the idea of a

reunification in the future.

The current status


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+REASONSBEHINDTHE

RELATIVEPEACE1. Elite interaction

2. Economic integration and interdependence

3. Functional cooperation

4. The United States factor


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Personal networks

Track two diplomacy

Track two meetings and workshops

Academic exchanges and dialogues

CCP-KMT inter-party connections

Unofficial military exchange and contacts

Back-channel negotiations and secret envoys

ELITE

INTERACTION


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INTERACTION Developing a thick web of linkages among the elite in the political

and military sphere of both sides is viewed as an irreplaceableresource and social capital

Catalyst for the development of positive relations

Trust and confidence building process Promote mutual win, smoothen relations and defuse issues and

tensions with conflict escalation potential

Trust is gained, understanding of the other side facilitated, and

communication made more effective (result of regular interactionand open channels of communication)

Willingness to listen and find common grounds

Avoidance of misunderstandings and miscalculations


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INTERACTION Increased ability for cooperation, as the two sides are

geographical neighbors deeply interlinked through economic

relations and a shared history and a Chinese heritage

Institutionalized positive relations

Important part of longer term peace-building

Transcends borders

United in the common goal of building a durable peacecommunity including people that share certain norms, values,

and goals, who are committed to a peaceful and prosperous

future

A buffer zone as been formed


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ELITE

INTERACTION Seminars, receiving researchers, inter-party relationsCommon US education: common language and framework

for understanding, schooled in the same internationalrelations discourse, same terminology and concepts,common language and educational experience

The Cross Strait Cultural, Education, and EconomicExchange Association is composed of members from both

sides with good connections and influenceAble to discuss softer issues such as humanitarian relief,

repatriation, etc.

Military fraternity

Illustration:


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ANDINTERDEPENDENCEMainland received 25% of Taiwans total exports

8% of Taiwans imports came from the Mainland

Import and export dependency had increased to 28%

Increased Taiwanese investments

Substantial economic interdependence became a drivingforce for cross-strait cooperation and integration

Economic zeal, political chilleconomic links grow stronger

while political differences show no sign of reconciliation


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ANDINTERDEPENDENCEDevelopment of a market economy is seen as an

important catalyst for the opening up and

democratization process on the Mainland

With a free market, identities and interests will

transform on the Mainland

Lead to shared values, norms, and

understandinga shared identity and shared

interests

Good instrument to build long-term peace


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ANDINTERDEPENDENCEPresence of Taiwanese businesspeople has led to

opening of schools with Taiwanese teachers,

medical facilities with Taiwanese doctors, etc.Direct charter flights, special direct cargo flights, and

other examples of innovative measures that cater to

the needs caused by the economic integration

Close contacts of businesspersons with seniorpolicymakers affect the private, academic, and

policy sectors (direct conflict preventive impact)

Illustration:


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FUNCTIONALCOOPERATION

Institutionalized integration and interaction across

the Strait

Manages functional and technical issues of the twosides (day-to-day interaction, people-to-people

exchange)

Trust and confidence building mechanism

Trade, cultural, and economic areas

De facto government-to-government channel


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FUNCTIONALCOOPERATION

Assisting mainland Chinese regarding

travel documents

Trade conflicts, disputes over fishing

rights, repatriation of fishermen

Illegal migration

Illustration:


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THE

U.S.FACTORImportant role for crisis management and short

term conflict prevention

Prevented the level of hostility from escalating into

war

Stabilizing force, created a framework for

acceptable behavior for both sides

Channel of communication and de facto

intermediate between Beijing and Taipei

Enhanced the Taiwanese feeling of security (Taiwan

ally)


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THE

U.S.FACTOR It is in the US interest that the two sides resolve the Taiwan

question peacefully (any military action is a grave threat toWestern peace)

The US recognition of the PRC was made on the premise thatBeijing would use a peaceful approach to resolve the Taiwanissue

The US also maintained cultural, commercial, and otherunofficial relations with Taiwan

No intention of infringing on Chinese sovereignty and territorialintegrity, or interfering in Chinas internal affairs, or pursuing apolicy of two Chinas or one China, one Taiwan

Strategic ambiguitymore support for Taiwan


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THE

U.S.FACTORTaiwan Relations Act passed by theU.S. Congress (1982)Pressuring Taiwan to tone down its

independence rhetoric and actions, to

avoid antagonizing the Mainland

Illustration:

Documents

East Asian Peace - Presentation.pptx