Loss of Control Accidents:

An analysis perspective

Ilias Maragakis

EASA Safety Analyst

EASA Safety Conference 4th-5th October 2011, Cologne

Loss of control in writing

Overview

What is the percentage of loss of control accidents?

What are the current trends?

In which phase do they occur?

What is the first event of an accident?

Is there a difference between aircraft design generations?

Data Scope

-Worldwide

-Accidents (2001-2010)

-Commercial Air Transport

-Aeroplanes (fixed wing)

-Mass 5,700 kg and above

LOC-I: According to CICTT

Loss of Control Accidents –All accidents

Loss of control Accidents

5%

Loss of Control Accidents –Fatal Accidents

Loss of control Accidents

25%

Inverted Pyramid

Loss of Control Occurrences

18

39

Accidents

Serious Incidents

Incidents

Fatalities and Fatal Accidents in Loss of Control

Phase of flight

Loss of Control Accidents and injury level

Loss of Control Accidents and damage level

06/10/2011 Annual Safety Review 2010 11

Visibility Conditions

Visibility Conditions

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%

% of Total Number of Records

IMC

VMC 7,69%

28,85%

50,00%

13,46%

Light Conditions

DaylightNight/dark

First Event in accident chain

Engine failure

Aircraft handling

Icing conditions

Take-off overweight/incorrect loading

Weather encounters

Bird Strike

Etc..

Aircraft Generations

First Generation: 50’s -70’s

Second Generation: 70’s and 80’s

Third Generation: 90’s today

Aircraft Generations LOC-I Accidents

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Generations

3rd Generation2nd Generation1st Generation

Aircraft Generations Movements

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0M

2M

4M

6M

8M

10M

12M

14M

16M

18M

Number of flights (millions)

Generations

1st Generation2nd Generation3rd Generation

Rate of LOC-I accidents

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Rat

e o

f ac

cid

ents

per

10

mill

ion

flig

hts

1st Generation2nd Generation3rd Generation

Conclusions

Loss of control, through its severity, is a serious threat to aviation safety

There is no single cause why these accidents occur; there is no single solution

A variety of factors involved, human factors included

Authorities, training organisations, operators, manufacturers and human factors experts need to work together to solve this multifaceted issue.

Annual Safety Review 2010

Ilias.maragakis@easa.europa.eu