Earthquakes in your backyard€¦ · · 2015-10-28Scawthorn "Earthquakes in your backyard" 29 October 2015 EPS 20 1 SPA Risk ... (BSSA, 1930) presents plan for strong motion

Scawthorn "Earthquakes in your backyard" 29 October 2015

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www.sparisk.com 1Scawthorn Lecture EPS 20 Oct 29, 2015

"Earthquakes in your backyard"

Charles Scawthorn, S.E.

Visiting ResearcherPacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, UC Berkeley

Invited Lecture, EPS 20

Oct 29, 2015

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Outline• Self‐introduction

• Brief history of post‐earthquake investigations

• Purpose of post‐earthquake investigations

• Earthquake effects

– In past earthquakes

– In coming US earthquakes

• Reducing Vulnerability / Enhancing Resilience

– In general

– In the Bay Area

• Concluding Remarks

• Q&A

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Outline

• give some examples from your international "collection" of surveys• explain in general remarks what the most devastating

consequences of strong EQ can be as the class is titled "Earthquakes in your backyard" it would be great if you can then focus on some examples from California,

• explain what we can do specifically in Northern California to reduce our vulnerability,

• and lastly, since you have been in this business for decades, assess if things here in California have been improved and if we are better off to deal with a big EQ now than we were 20 years ago.


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http://peer.berkeley.edu/

www.sparisk.com

Lecture pdf posted here

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Charles Scawthorn• Education

• B.E. (The Cooper Union, New York City)

• MSCE (Lehigh University, Penn.)• D.Eng. (Kyoto University, Urban Seismic Risk: Analysis and Mitigation)

• Consulting Engineer (San Francisco, London, Tokyo) 1970s‐2003• Dames & Moore• EQE: Senior Vice President $80 million / year global consulting firm, 10 countries• Founded / ran Tokyo office 1995‐1998• co‐founder EQECAT• Projects all over the world

• Professor, Kyoto University (2003 ‐ 2008)• Earthquake Risk Reduction• Infrastructure Risk Management

• 2008 • Visiting Professor (Stanford, UC Berkeley, Waseda [Tokyo], Beijing Normal University) • Research (NSF, USGS, SSC, WRN…)• Consultant:

• government agencies (World Bank, FEMA, State of California…)• Real estate and insurance entities

6


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Disaster Responses / Investigations

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Earthquake Theories


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• felt across Europe • buildings collapsed, many fires

and a massive tsunami

• massive destruction of Lisbon,

one of the largest and most

beautiful cities in Europe

• 60,000+ dead

• Nov 1: All Saints’ Day

• inspired Voltaire's Candide,

who ridiculed a world closely

overseen by a benevolent deity "the best of all possible worlds“?

1755 Lisbon earthquake

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1755 Lisbon EQ


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Date Hazard Vulnerability Exposure Risk Event/Comment / Other

1755 Lisbon Earthquake – structural, urban planning and other mitigations developed, but don’t spread

1783 Schiantarelli quantifies damage (Calabria earthquake, soon after Lisbon and with greater losses, spurs some attention to earthquakes

1811-12 New Madrid (US) earthquakes – no advances

1828 seismic intensity quantified by Egen (Belgian earthquake), not much used however

1850s Ft. Tejon (US), Edo Ansei (Japan) earthquakes – no advances

1850 Mallet’s Map – lays out bands of seismicity, shows plate boundaries and regions of high risk at a glance. Well-known in seismology, doesn’t seem to have had any

effect related to risk

1867 D.A. Sanborn National Insurance Diagram Bureau established in New York City – growth in

development of fire insurance maps

1874 Rossi (Italian), defines intensity scale

1881 Forel (Swiss) combines his scale with Rossi’s, for Rossi-Forel Scale, with ten degrees of intensity (first scale to be

widely used internationally)

1880 Milne, Ewing, Gray arrive Japan, build first good seismograph;

Seismological Society of Japan founded (world’s first)

1883 Giuseppe Mercalli (1850-1914) improves Rossi-Forel scale but still keeps ten degrees

1886 Charleston (US) earthquake – good documentation including sand blows and building damage, but not much advancement of science or mitigation

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Rossi‐Forel Intensity Scale (1883)


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1887 Mt. Hamilton and Berkeley Seismological Observatories established (first in western

Hemisphere)

1891 Lawson maps San Andreas fault (but believes it’s a thrust fault)

1891 Nobi earthquake – establishment of Imperial Earthquake Investigation Committee (multidisciplinary); Fusakichi Omori (1868-1923) surveys overturned stone-lanterns

etc, draws acceleration isoseismals, develops seven degree intensity scale, fore-runner of today’s JMA scale.

1880s-1890s

Increasing seismic design in San Francisco, use of bond iron, high-rise

buildings (q.v.. Tobriner)

1892 Seismological Soc.Japan dissolved

1902 Adolfo Cancani extends Mercalli scale to twelve degrees, with estimated ground acceleration values but poor

qualitative descriptions, resulting in the Mercalli-Cancani scale.

1905 Anderson defines normal, reverse and strike-slip faulting modes

NBFU survey of San Francisco, identifying great fire risk

1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Fire Isoseismals mapped by Wood,;

significant detail in the city of San Francisco itself, using ad hoc

intensity scale (Lawson, 1908)

Structural effects documented (USGS, 1907), finding that

engineered buildings not substantially damaged by the

earthquake or fire, if reasonably well fire-protected to begin with.

Founding of Seismological Society of America; Japanese engineers visit and investigate effects;

Emphasis on fire, and downplaying of earthquake by City (and engineers). Areas of ‘infirm ground’ noted

and used by the San Francisco Fire Department in subsequent construction of special high pressure

water system

1908 - 1909

Messina (Italy) earthquake Italian committee develops equivalent lateral force (ELF) for seismic design; T.

Sano (Japan) independently develops ELF method

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Cause of Earthquakes – elastic rebound H.L. Reid, based on

observations in 1906 San Francisco earthquake, formulated “theory of elastic rebound”


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1908 - 1909

Messina (Italy) earthquake Italian committee develops equivalent lateral force (ELF) for seismic design; T.

Sano (Japan) independently develops ELF method

1908 Construction of SFFD AWSS

1911 Hugo F. Reid (1859-1944) expounds elastic rebound theory (Reid, 1911), based on studies of

1906 earthquake

1912 Sieberg provides full descriptions of each degree of Mercalli-Cancani scale. Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg or

MCS Scale twelve-degree scale still in use in Southern Europe.

1913-1915

Wegener propounds “Origin of Continents and Oceans” (ie, plate

tectonics). Is ignored.

1920s Modern Caltech and its Seismo Lab established; Wood and

Anderson develop and deploy standard torsion seismograph;

Richter joins in 1925.

Frank Knight publishes Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, a classic in

risk management.

Tokyo earthquake and Fire 1923

IEIC becomes Earthquake Research Institute (Suyehiro first

director)

Naito’s buildings undamaged; Japanese seismic building code using Sano seismic coefficient method (aka, ELF, equivalent lateral force)

ASCE sends team to

investigate

1923-24 Bailey Willis series on “Earthquake Risk in California” in BSSA

1925 Santa Barbara (US) earthquake

Insurance industry earthquake losses, J.R. Freeman takes interest

1926 Palo Alto seismic code

John von Neumann presents first paper on theory of games, at

University of Göttingen,.

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1926 Prof. R. Martel (Caltech) attends Earthquake Conference in Japan, to learn from 1923 events.

1927 UBC seismic code, emulates ELF approach from Japanese code

Mississippi floods

1929 Seismological Soc. Japan re-established J.R. Freeman attends World Engg. Conf. in Tokyo, meets Martel and Suyehiro

1930 Freeman (BSSA, 1930) presents plan for strong motion network and other concepts; subsequently lobbies

vigorously.

1931 Wood and Neumann publish MMI (1931) Gutenberg joins Caltech

.

1932 (a) Strong Motion instrumentation authorized for US Coast and Geodetic Survey, NBS builds instruments with assistance from

MIT and U. Va., instruments deployed in California; (b) USC&GS performs ambient and forced vibration surveys of buildings in

California, leading to rule for building natural period ( T = 0.1 N, where N is number of stories).

Freeman publishes “Earthquake Damage and Earthquake insurance”

Suyehiro invited to US, lectures at Berkeley, Stanford, Caltech and MIT, great interest and

appreciation

1933 Long Beach Earthquake: First strong motion recording (27

individual components); PGA

Field and Riley Acts (California) require seismic design for schools and other

buildings, respectively.

1933 Structural response spectra (Biot, 1933; Housner, 1941)

1935 Richter defines earthquake magnitude (Wadati)

1936 Federal Navigation Act of 1936 requires U.S. Corps of Engineers carry out projects for improvement of

waterways when total benefits of a project to whomsoever exceed the costs of that project.

Beginning of Benefit-Cost Analysis.

Martel, Suyehiro, Gutenberg, Anderson


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1906 San Francisco EQ Intensity map

(RF scale)

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Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale(Wood Neumann, 1931)


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Comparison of Intensity Scales

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Computed Intensity Maps


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EPICENTERM 6.6 January 17, 1994

MMI

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

Pacific Ocean

17 Jan 1994 Northridge Earthquake Intensity Estimate (created 11am, 6 hours after event)

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Northridge Intensity Mapscomputed reported


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Purpose of post‐earthquake investigations

Two fundamental purposes:

1. Initial reconnaissance, to understand • what has happened (and not happened)• what are significant aspects, for more detailed investigations

2. Detailed surveys, to acquire statistically meaningful data

This data is used to construct fragility and vulnerability functions


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Fragility and Vulnerability

fragility

Fragility:Prob (DS | H) = CDF (DS | H) (ie, a probability)

DS = damage stateH = hazard

Used for systems analysis

vulnerability

Vulnerability:Vuln = Σ (cost |DS) pdf (DS |H)

= mean cost | H

Used for benefit‐cost decision‐making

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1964 Niigata earthquake


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Earthquake + Loose Sandy Soil

Soil Settles, Densifies, Water under Pressure,LIQUEFACTION

Liquefaction

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1995 Kobe Earthquake


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1999 Turkey Earthquake

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1999 Turkey Earthquake


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Subsidence south shore of Izmit Bay east of Golchuk – note crane and buildings in water, indicating subsided quay or pier.

Subsidence

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1999 Turkey ‐ faulting


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2.2 m (87 inches) vertical fault scarp, east of Golchuk (nr Ford

plant)

17 Aug 99 Izmit Earthquake

Fault scarp

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Collapsed five story building intersected by faulting – arrow shows where fault intersected the building, with

attendant differential settlement.

Building on Fault


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Building on Fault

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Adapazari


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Overturned building in Adapazari, due to foundation failure (detail of underside of

foundation).

Building Collapse ‐ Adapazari

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Fire at Refinery


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1993 Nansei‐oki earthquake and

tsunami

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1993 Nanseioki

earthquake and tsunami


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1993 Nansei‐oki earthquake and

tsunami

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1993 Nansei‐oki earthquake and tsunami


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BASIC INFORMATION(Japan Meteorological Agency

http://www.jma.go.jp/JMA_HP/jma/indexe.html)

•- Saturday, October 23, 2004 • 5:56 PM (Local time at epicenter)•- Magnitude 6.8•- Location 37.3°N, 138.8°E•- Depth about 20km

MMI

12

10+

9

8+

8‐

6

5

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Typical debris flow, exhibiting a narrow path and long run out (Photo: S. Kieffer)


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Landslide dam in tributary valley formed by debris flow / translational soil sliding, Yamakoshi epicentral area (r) Inundation

homes upstream of landslide dam (Photos: K. Kelson).

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www.sparisk.com 46Scawthorn Lecture EPS 20 Oct 29, 2015Block slide formed by bedding plane (sliding surface) and two sets of

vertical joint release surfaces. (Photo: S. Kieffer)


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Derailed Shinkansen(Photo: C. Scawthorn)

1.9 km to stop

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Sri Lanka – Coastal Transportation Corridor (typ)

Zone of destruction(~ 100s m, typ)

Runup 3 m (typ)10 m max (at Hambantota, SW coast)


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Water


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Banda Aceh Telecom

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EQEHAZ Intensity Distribution

EPICENTERM 6.6 January 17, 1994

MMI

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

Pacific Ocean

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Steel Moment Frame Connection Problem

More than 200 structures in Los Angeles experienced unanticipated brittle fractures in connections

Similar damage has occurred in other earthquakes

— Kobe

— Loma Prieta

— Landers

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Crack propagating from beam-column weld at left, through column flange and then into the column web


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Anheuser ‐ Busch BreweryVan Nuys (Los Angeles), CA

Facility Description

• Original construction in 1954

• Buildings included several reinforced concrete shear wall and steel braced and moment frame structures

• Tremendous B.I. exposure if fermentation tanks damaged

• One of the largest industrial facilities affected by the earthquake

• Total replacement value = $1.3 billion (1993)

980000.700\Modeleq2.ppt\73

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Earthquake Risk Reduction Program (ERRP)Phase 1 Report (PML Excerpt)

* Extended B.I.

LOCATION TYPE PML RISK RISK ISSUES

Brewhouse Concrete 35% High Collapse, B.I.*

Stockhouses Concrete 30% to High to Collapse, B.I. *#1, #2, #3 50% V. high

Power plant Steel 35% High Safety, B.I.

Power plant Concrete 25% Mod. B.I., damage

Fire water tank Steel plate 50% V. high Fire

Fuel oil tank Steel plate 50% V. high Fire

Pumphouse Prefab. bldg. 10% Low

Pipeway bridges Steel 30% High Safety, B.I.


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Before Strengthening After Earthquake

The strengthened brewhouse was not damaged.

Note the new shear wall (missing windows)

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The strengthened boiler (power) plant was not damaged. The exterior bracing was added so that operations would not be interrupted.

Before Strengthening

After Earthquake

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The strengthened (and key) fermentation tanks.

Before Strengthening

After Earthquake

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This is what happens to fermentation tanks when they are not properly anchored.

This is a very good example of why we continue to investigate earthquakes.

The Hakutsuru Sake Brewery in Kobe earthquakewas not retrofitted and was heavily damaged.

980000.700\Modeleq2.ppt\78


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Event Summary

Mw: 9.0

Date: 11 March 2011 Time: LT 2:45pm UTC 5:46am

Name:

Tohoku Region Pacific Offshore Earthquake(Eastern Japan Great Earthquake Disaster)

Epicenter: 38.322°N 142.369°E

Felt: Osaka

Killed: ~ 26,000 (14,161 confirmed dead, 11,536 missing)

Housing damage: 77,000 destroyed, 260,000 damaged

Displaced: 160,000

Economic Loss: $600 billion?

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Same scale

Relevance


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Item Japan California USA

Area (mns sq km) 0.378 .424 9.827

Popul (mns) 127.96 37.26 308.75

Popul Density (p / sq km) 337 234 33.7

GDP nom (bns) $5.46 $1.76 $14.62

GDP pc $42,820 $47.13

2010: 126.22 mn

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Plate boundaries and motions

Bird, P. (2003) An updated digital model of plate boundaries. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 4, 1027‐1079.


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Cascadia rupture from Atwater, B. F., Musumi‐Rokkaku, S., Satake, K., Tsuji, Y., Ueda, K. & D.K. Yamaguchi (2005) The Orphan Tsunami of 1700—Japanese Clues to a Parent Earthquake in North America. U.S.G.S. Professional Paper 1707, Prepared by U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Geological Survey of Japan (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), the University of Tokyo, and the University of Washington. Published in association with University of Washington Press.


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Tohoku Tsunami entering San Francisco Bay


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Kyoto Univ.28‐30 March

PEER – EERI11‐12 April

Kyoto Univ.18‐20 April Survey Routes

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Soma Port


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Soma Energy Port

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Shinchi


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Observations –Tsunami effects

Transport – Rail 4

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Transport – Airports 2


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Ports ‐ Fishing

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Damaged VesselsName DWT

Drilling ship Chikyu 27161

Coral Ring 75395

Shirouma 77739

Shiramizu 91439

C. S. Victory 32385

Chinasteel Integrity 175775

Asia Symphony 6175

Glovis Mercury 6901

Khrizolitoviy 523

Koshin Maru 1592

Emu Arrow 51800

Total 546885


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Energy – Nuclear Power

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Fire following earthquake


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VI

VI

VII

VIII

MMI Population

VI 199,000

VII 90,000

VIII 36,000

Utilities• Potable Water

• Waste Water

• Electric Power

• Natural Gas

• Communications

• Oil (crude and refined)

Transportation• Airport

• Railway

• Highway (x bridges)

• Light Rail

• Bus

• Port

• Ferry

Fire following earthquake

24 Aug 2014 M6 Napa Earthquake

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USGS ShakeOut Exercise

200 million sq ft ($60 bn dollar) loss due to fire following earthquake


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Scawthorn Lecture EPS 20 Oct 29, 2015

M7.05 Mainshock SA(0.3 sec)4:18 PM Wed 18 Apr 2018

Probability: 1 in 200 each year

2.1m 0.9m 0.5‐1.4m

1.7m 0m


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Liquefaction

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Pipeline Breaks due to Shaking

DRAFT ‐‐ DO NOT CITE OR DISSEMINATE ‐‐ FOR SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT ONLY

4,600 breaks due to shaking


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Are we better off than we were 20 years ago?

Well, consider:

• ~24,000 URM buildings in Calif. have been mitigated

• Caltrans has analyzed / retrofitted all its overpasses (in California!)

• San Francisco has instituted CAPSS / soft story program

• Thousands of commercial buildings have been retrofitted

• UC Berkeley campus “entirely” mitigated

• PG&E has replaced all its cast iron pipe

• EBMUD, SFPUC, CCWD, MMWD, SCVWD, SJWC… done or in process

• Bay Bridge has been improved (maybe)

• LA is getting started (!)

• PG&E replaced all its gas meters with “smart meters” (but no gas shutoff device! – only eliminates meter readers)

• Schools have been mitigated since 1930s (but many now need updated retrofitting – Berkeley USD a model for this)

• Hospitals – slooooowly being done

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Concluding Remarks

• Earthquakes cause great suffering and loss

• What damage? Where? Why? has been the subject of > 100 years of investigations and research

• Our understanding accelerated from mid‐20th C

• Some of that understanding has been transmitted to you today

• But there’s still a lot to be done

• That’ll be your job


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Thank you

[email protected]

Copy of this presentation at

http://www.sparisk.com/publications.htm

Documents

Earthquakes in your backyard€¦ · · 2015-10-28Scawthorn "Earthquakes in your backyard" 29 October 2015 EPS 20 1 SPA Risk ... (BSSA, 1930) presents plan for strong motion