Earth System Science

Mike Raupach (EOC), Damian Barrett (CPI), Ian Enting (CAR), John Finnigan (CSS), Mac Kirby (CLW), Chris Moran (HCFP),

Peter Rayner (CAR)

CSIRO Climate Program Meeting, Melbourne, 4-6 August 2003

2

Outline

Definitions and questions Earth System Science

Sample issues and approaches:

• 1: Global change and climate vulnerability

• 2: Greenhouse mitigation

• 3: Water benefits in Australia

• 4: Resilience in socio-ecological systems

Goals and possible structures for an ESS initiative

3

Definitions of Earth System Science

1. Earth science (fluid and solid earth sciences)

2. Extended climate science (CC++)

• atmosphere and ocean plus …

• hydrosphere, biosphere, biogeochemistry, ecology …

• Oriented to extending climate models to the next generation, and providing the observations needed to constrain them

3. The science of the integrated earth system

• The interactions between the biophysical and human parts of the Earth

• Draws from biophysical sciences, ecology, social sciences, economics

• Uses concepts and tools of complex system science (CSS): self-organisation, hierarchy, emergence, adaptation, …

4. Sustainability Science: the science of the integrated earth system, applied to sustainable development

Earth System Science

Advanced Climate Science and Earth Observation

4

Questions for Earth System Science

in the style of the IGBP-GAIM "23 Hilbertian Questions"

Advanced climate science

• What dynamics drove paleoclimates and glacial cycles? (Vostok record)

• What are the risks of major climate vulnerabilities over the next century? associated with thresholds, jumps in climate state, … thermohaline circulation, soil C pools, methane, carbon-water feedbacks, …

Integrated earth system science: physical-ecological-human systems

• What dynamics govern their states and transitions, and lead to properties such as emergence, self-organisation, modularity, hierarchy, phasing?

• How can we understand and guide such systems?

• What is the right mix of technological and institutional emphases to achieve effective guidance?

5

Sample ESS issues and approaches

1:Global change and climate vulnerability

IPCC, GCP, …

6GCP 2001IPCC 2001

Global Change

Atmospheric CO2 and associated warming

7

Sample ESS issues and approaches

2:Greenhouse mitigation

Raupach, M.R., Canadell, J.G., Bakker, D., Ciais, P., José Sanz, M., Fang, J.Y., Melillo, J., Romero, P., Sathaye, J., Schulze, E.-D., Smith, P. and Tschirley, J. Interactions between CO2 stabilisation pathways and requirements for a sustainable earth system. In: Toward CO2 Stabilization: Issues, Strategies, Consequences. (Eds: Field, C.B. and Raupach, M.R.). Island Press.

8

CO2 stabilisation pathways and direct human-induced emissions

Direct-human-induced CO2 emissions

• Case 1 = "Business as usual" (IS92A)

• Case 2 = Case 1 with major CO2 sequestration and disposal

• Case 3 = Case 2 with major energy conservation and use of non-fossil-fuel energy

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Dir

ectly

h

um

an

-in

du

ce

d C

O2 e

mis

sio

n [G

tC

y-1 ]

0

5

10

15

20

25

Stabilisation trajectories

1000

650

450

IS92a scenario CO2 target (ppm) Case

1

2

3

"Business as usual" (IS92A)

Add major sequestration and disposal

Also add major conservation and non-fossil-fuel energy

9

Climate, economic, environmental and socio-cultural impacts associated with mitigation strategies

10

Trajectories of the coupled carbon-climate-human system as emergent properties

uk = uptake proportion of mitigation technology k (as fraction of technical potential)

Consider a total utility of mitigation (U), including benefits and costs in the areas of climate, economics, society-culture, and environment:

Maximise U subject to constraints (supply = demand for energy, food, land, water)

Uptake proportions become control variables in a constrained optimisation problem

wClim, wEcon, wSoc, wEnv are weights expressing "societal choices" [economic, environmental, socio-cultural and policy priorities emerging from societal institutions and structures]. These are key "levers" influencing future trajectories of the carbon-climate-human system.

Total Clim Clim k

Econ Econ k

Soc Soc k

Env Env k

U w U u

w U u

w U u

w U u

Climate utility

Economic utility

Socio-cultural utility

Environmental utility

11

Sample ESS issues and approaches

3:Water benefits in Australia

Chris Moran, Mac Kirby and Healthy Country Team

River ArisA River Somewhere

13

A framework for water benefits accountingChris Moran, Healthy Country (adapted by MRR)

Management decisions

External drivers(climate, terms of trade)

Changes in water use

Changes in water benefits

Changes in water quantity, quality

Changes in water amenity (material

budgets …)

Water benefits accounting

WATER USE AND BENEFIT

CYCLE

DECISION CYCLE

EXTERNALITIES

Institutional frameworks

14

Sample ESS issues and approaches

4:Resilience, adaptive capacity and transformative capacity in socio-ecologiocal systems

Brian Walker and colleagues (overheads selected from a seminar on "Sustainable Development: Managing for resilience in socio-ecological systems" by Brian Walker, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Thursday 31 July 2003)

The MarketClimate

16

Resilience analysis in social-ecological systems(Walker et al, 2002. Resilience management in social-ecological systems: A working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Conservation Ecology 6(1))

Building resilience, adaptive capacity and transformative capacity in social-ecological systems: a participatory approach

17

Outline

Definitions and questions Earth System Science

Sample issues and approaches:

• 1: Global change and climate vulnerability

• 2: Greenhouse mitigation

• 3: Water benefits in Australia

• 4: Resilience in socio-ecological systems

Goals and possible structures for an ESS initiative

18

Earth System Science in CSIRO: who is involved

Climate science is part of Earth System Science, not the other way round

Several groups in CSIRO are working on issues or tools relevant to Earth System Science

Increasingly they recognise a common conceptual framework

Task is to locate this intersection and utilise the energy there

Climate

HealthyCountry

Energy Transformed

CSS, SEI

19

Three Big Goals for Earth System Science

A. Advanced Climate Science Development:

• extend the Australian climate model to include hydrosphere, biosphere, biogeochemistry, ecology …;

• use novel observation and model-data synthesis methods to parameterise the resulting model system;

• use this system to study climate impacts, risks and vulnerabilities in the Australian region

B. Earth System Model Development:

Develop Australian earth system models to explore integrated earth system science questions for the Australian environment

C. Earth System Concept Development:

Introduce scientific awareness of the connectedness of the earth system into the Australian popular and political consciousness, and have it inform national identity and decision-making

20

Models for an Earth System Science initiative

Model 1: Structured conversations

• Working Group (like the BWG) to provide a forum for conversations

• Problems: lack of resource, commitment

Model 2: Institution

• A full ESS structure, say an ESS Emerging Science Area

• Problems: significant overlap with CSS and SEI; proliferation of structures

Model 3: Focus on initiatives

• A: ESS contributions to Advanced Climate Science

• B: Australian ESS Model Stream (in Complex System Science?)

• C: ESS Thinktank

» Series of ~5 day workshops (several over 3 years)

» Participants to be wider than CSIRO

» Product: a concept-transforming book and website (living book)

21

Fitting into the programmatic world

CSIRO Climate

• Impacts and Adaptation

• Mitigation

• Climate Modelling

• Earth Observation

Healthy Country

Complex System Science

Socio-Economic Integration

External Partners

Advanced climate science Hydro, bio, BGC, ecol, … Model-data synthesis Implications for climate

risks and vulnerabilities …

Oz ESS Models Shell Dynamics Agent-based …

Oz ESS Thinktank Ideas …