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Earth at Night from Shuttle. 1200—400 million people 1300—400 million people 1400—350 million people 1500—450 million people 1600—550 million people 1700—600 million people 1800—900 million people 1900—1.5 billion people 2000—6.0 billion people 2010—7+ billion people. Exponential - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Earth at Night from Shuttle
•1200—400 million people•1300—400 million people•1400—350 million people•1500—450 million people•1600—550 million people•1700—600 million people•1800—900 million people•1900—1.5 billion people•2000—6.0 billion people•2010—7+ billion people
Lag phase
Exponentialgrowth
Exponential growth
J-Curve
2 4 6 8 10 etc.
2 2 2 2 etc.
Linear Growth
Time
#’s
2 4 8 16 32 etc.
2 4 8 16 etc.
Exponential Growth
Time
#’s
Biotic Potential
Logistic Growth/ S-Curve
Carrying Capacity•“Niche spaces”•Limiting Factors
Limiting factors•Density dependent•Density independent
Density dependent factors•Habitat•Food•Water•Shelter•Etc
•Disease•Behavior
Density independent factors•Climate (?)•Geology•Geography•Etc
# live births
Mid-year population BR = x 1000
# Deaths
mypDR = x 1000
BR - DR10
APGR =
20 - 810
APGR = = 1.2 %
10010
11011
12112
133Etc
#’s
Time
APGR70DT =
1.2 %70
DT = = 58.33 years
1954 = 2.7 billion; Current = <7 billion
# Immigrants - # Emigrants myp
Net Migration =
x 1000
Net migration10
Adjusted Growth Rate =
+ APGR
Adjusted GR70
Adjusted DT =
#Births = 40,000#Deaths = 20,000Mid-year population = 2,000,000 Immigrants = 12,000 Emigrants = 2,000
40,000
2,000,000BR = x 1000
40,000,000
2,000,000BR = = 20
20,000
2,000,000DR = x 1000
20,000,000
2,000,000DR = = 10
20 - 1010
APGR = = 1%
1.0 %70
DT = = 70 years
12,000 - 2,0002,000,000
Net Migration =
x 1000
10,000,0002,000,000
Net Migration =
= 5
510
Adjusted Growth Rate =
+ 1.0
0.5
Adjusted Growth Rate =
+ 1.0= 1.5%
1.570
Adjusted DT = = 46.66 years
TFR= Total Fertility Rate
Replacement TFR• In developed countries, 2.1•In less developed countries 2.5-3.3
AMA= Average Marrying Age
AMA TFR
MDC’s LDC’s
APGR 0.5 2+
DT 140 yrs 35 yrs
TFR 2.3 3.5+
AGE STR Uniform Bottom heavy
Human Population Carrying Capacity•Unknown•Quality of life
Should population growth be slowed?•Ecologists •Economists
How to slow growth•Education of women•Economic development•Empowerment of women•Family planning•Reproductive laws
Disease•Infectious disease•Non-infectious
Infectious disease•Direct•Vector transmitted•Endemic•Epidemic•Pandemic
Disease•Acute•Chronic
Control of Non-human Populations•Hunting/harvesting•Trapping•Poisoning•Introduced pathogens/predators
Control of Non-human Populations•Hunting/harvesting•Trapping•Poisoning•Introduced pathogens/predators
Birth Control•Abstinence•Rhythm method•Barrier methods•Hormonal methods•Spermicides•Sterilization•Abortion
