EALAW Conference29th March 2011

Newport

Minority Ethnic Achievement: Myth or Miracle?

What do the statistics for Wales tell us about Race Equality in schools?

Dr. Jonathan Brentnall

1. Big PictureContext

Inform work with individuals

In the stats – every child matters

At a social level – every child matters

Statistics influence expectations – use them carefully

2. Potential v Attainment

Grouped attainment statistics are NOT a measurement of POTENTIAL (group or individual)

Only tell you what pupils ATTAINED measured against a particular level at a certain time – not what they’re CAPABLE of

3. Achievement v Attainment

A child may ACHIEVE much but NOT ATTAIN a set target level

A child may make great progress but still not ATTAIN the level of their peers

4. Assessments contain bias

Socially constructed

Culturally framed

Biased towards those who share a similar social and cultural framework of experience

Certain kinds of knowledge, understanding and skills are valued more than others

Built-in disadvantage for some

5. Working within the system

Curriculum & testing need to be addressed at a political, policy level

Some room for professional discretion

Tacit acceptance of working within the statutory framework

Ultimately – children & people are judged by their level of success in the education system – as it is

6. Racial/ethnic differences or inequalities?

Gender pay gap = Unequal Pay

Underlying principle – men and women are equal

All equal – equal entitlements – equal opportunities – equal access – equal outcomes

Different educational/assessment outcomes impact on …

further & higher education uptake, career options, earnings, social mobility, quality of life …

7. Explaining the statistics

Pupil population divided up by race/ethnicity

Ethnic identities - intermediate categories

Small numbers = less reliable statistics

Aggregated 2005-2010 = more robust statistics

Attainment – CSI (Eng, Maths, Sci) KS1-4

Gender KS4 (2005-09), Free School Meals (2009/10), Exclusions (2003-09), EAL Stages (2010)

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Distribution of attainment in norm-based assessment

Level of attainment

Number of people

High target level of attainment (few can achieve)

Level of attainment

Number of people

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Lower target level of attainment (more can achieve)

Level of attainment

Number of people

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Low target level of attainment (most can achieve)

Level of attainment

Number of people

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In an EQUAL system - % people attaining the target / expected level

Comparison of different groupings

%

NC Assessment & exams

The statistics represent:

All pupils recorded in PLASC on roll & assessed

Combined figures for 6 years from 2005-2010 drawn from Statistical bulletins SB 16/2008 (2005-2007) and SB 24/2011 (2008-2010)

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10, Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

L2 L4 L5 A*-C

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

81.575.9

60

43.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

White British background

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

81.8 79.5

72.768.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Chinese or Chinese British

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

85.2 85

72.6

51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Mixed White and Asian background

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

84.6

73.4

60.4

51.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Any other Asian Background

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

82.9

75.3

60.8

50.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Indian heritage

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

81.777.5

60.9

45.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Any other Mixed Background

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

71.4 69.5

56.6

45.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Any other White background

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

73.970

54.6

41.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Pakistani heritage

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

72.969.3

51.5

35.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Bangladeshi heritage

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

73.968.8

54.1

44.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Any other ethnic group

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10, Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

8074.2

53.3

30.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

White and Black Caribbean background

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

78.7

67

51.6

34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Black Caribbean heritage

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

72.6

64.2

47.9

31.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Any other Black background

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.1

67.560.9

43.5

29.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Black African heritage

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.142.3

28.222

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Traveller background

% pupils attaining CSI KS1-4 2005-10 agg. Wales

8175.6

59.9

43.136.3

32.3

7.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Gypsy/Gypsy Roma

5 groups' figs. start KS1 & end KS4 above ave. 05-10, Wales

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Chinese or Chinese British

Indian heritage

Any other Asian Background

Mixed White and Asian background

Any other Mixed Background

3 groups' figs start below & end KS4 above ave. 05-10, Wales

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Any other White background

Any other ethnic group

Mixed White and Black African background

2 groups' figs. start below & narrow gap by KS4, 05-10, Wales

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Pakistani heritage

Bangladeshi heritage

4 groups' figs. start below & don't narrow gap, 05-10, Wales

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupils

Black African heritage

Any other Black background

Black Caribbean heritage

Mixed White and Black Caribbean background

2 groups' figures are unacceptably low. 05-10, Wales

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4

All pupilsTravellerGypsy/Gypsy Roma

KS4 CSI by ethnicity, Wales, 2005-10 agg.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

What do the attainment statistics tell us?

Higher proportions of pupils from several minority ethnic groupings attain expected levels:Chinese, Indian, Mixed White & Asian, Any other Asian background, Any other Mixed background

In several minority groupings, the proportion of pupils attaining the expected level increases from KS1-4 compared to the national figure: Any other white background, Any other ethnic group, Mixed White and Black African, Pakistani, Bangladeshi

What do the attainment statistics tell us?

Some groupings start at a disadvantage: Gypsy/Roma, Traveller, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Black African, Black Caribbean, Mixed White & Black Caribbean, Any other Black background, Mixed White & Black African, Any other White and Any other ethnic group.

Some groupings - proportions decline over time:Gypsy/Roma, Traveller, Black Caribbean, Black African, Mixed White and Black Caribbean, Any other Black backgd.

Issues at all Key Stages – most gps decline highest in KS3

Gender & Attainment

Are there any differences between boys’ and girls’ attainments?

Boys and Girls attaining KS4 CSI Wales 2005-09 High attainment groupings

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

All pupils White - British Any other Mixedbackground

Any other Whitebackground

Any other ethnicgroup

Any other Asianbackground

White and Asian Indian Chinese orChinese British

6.1

8.5

8.8 5.4 6.11.1

8.9

6

9.8

Boys and Girls attaining KS4 CSI, Wales, 2005-09 low attainment groupings

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Gypsy/Roma Traveller of IrishHeritage

Black African Black Caribbean White and BlackCaribbean

Any other Blackbackground

Bangladeshi White and BlackAfrican

Pakistani All pupils

1.8

29.2 2.71.5 1.8

11.7 0.6

10.2 6

4.8

Gender gap

Several groupings with low numbers of attainers - smaller gap between boys and girls.

Several groupings with high numbers of attainers - larger gap between boys and girls.

Pakistani & Bangladeshi heritage boys behind.

Chinese, Indian, Any other Asian, Any other Mixed background boys behind.

EAL Stage

How significant is EAL proficiency?

Proportion of EAL pupils at each EAL Stage, Wales 2009/10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All pupils

E

D

C

B

A

EAL Pupils by EAL Stage and Age Group, Wales 2009/10

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Under 5 5 to 10 11 to 15 16 and over

E

D

C

B

A

% pupils on each EAL Stage by Gender, Wales 2009/10

18.0

16.7

18.4

16.5

19.6

19.6

13.3

14.7

30.7

32.4

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Boys

Girls

A

B

C

D

E

Pupils on EAL Stages by racial group, Wales 2009/10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

White Mixed Chinese Black Otherethnicgroup

Asian

not EAL

E

D

C

B

A

FSM eligibility

How significant is socio-economic background?

% pupils eligible for FSM by racial group, Wales 2009/10

47.1

24.521.5

17.5 16.9

5.1

17.8

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0

Black Mixed Any otherethnicgroup

White Asian Chinese All pupils

% pupils eligible for FSM by ethnicity, Wales 2009/10

17.8

67.6

59.8

52.1

32.6 32.129.8

27.121.9 21.5 20.4 20.3 20.3

17.5

11.2 9.86.1 5.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Tota

l

G

ypsy / R

om

a

Tra

veller of Iris

h H

erita

ge

Bla

ck A

fric

an

W

hite a

nd B

lack C

aribbean

Any o

ther Bla

ck b

ackgro

und

W

hite a

nd B

lack A

fric

an

Bla

ck C

aribbean

Pakis

tani

Any o

ther eth

nic

gro

up

Bangla

deshi

Any o

ther m

ixed b

ackgro

und

W

hite a

nd A

sia

n

W

hite B

ritish

Any o

ther Asia

n b

ackgro

und

Any o

ther W

hite b

ackgro

und

In

dia

n

Chin

ese

Exclusions

Do exclusion rates tell us anything about race equality in schools in Wales?

Rates of permanent exclusion, ratio above or below national figure, by racial group - 2003-2009

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

AnyOther

Black NotKnown

Mixed White Asian Chinese Total

ratio to 1

Rates of exclusion of 6 days or more, ratio above or below national figure, by racial group - 2003-2009

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

NotKnown

Black AnyOther

Mixed White Asian Chinese Total

ratio to 1

Rates of exclusion of 5 days or fewer, ratio above or below national figure, by racial group - 2003-2009

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

NotKnown

Black AnyOther

Mixed White Asian Chinese Total

ratio to 1

Conclusions

Equal educational outcomes are not a reality for pupils of all ethnic backgrounds in Wales.

Some of the inequalities are unacceptable.

Girls & boys attainment differs between groups.

In some groupings pupils make very good progress.

Conclusions

A disproportionate number of pupils from several minority ethnic groupings experience socio-economic disadvantage.

Pupils from certain ethnic backgrounds experience a disproportionate number of exclusions.

EAL proficiency appears significant for some but not all attainment patterns

What can we do?

Identify the reasons for low attainment: the factors contributing to low achievement

Identify the best practice strategies for tackling the negative factors and supporting achievement

Define what needs to be done to improve current policy and practice

Focus Groups

Travellers & Gypsy/Roma

Mixed White and Black Caribbean & Mixed White and Black African

Black African

Black Caribbean

Focus Groups

Late Arrivals into Secondary

Pupils in Welsh-medium and bilingual schools

EU migrants (Any other White)

Pakistani & Bangladeshi

Focus Group Tasks

Task 1 – Prioritise good practice strategies

Task 2 – What needs to be done to make policy and practice more effective?

Facilitated task-based discussions.

Written up and put up on EALAW website.

End