EAA Aluminium Penetration in Cars Final Report Public Version

This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from Ducker Worldwide LLC.

Advancing Growth

EAA Aluminium penetration in cars

Final Report

March 13, 2012

Public version

Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide 89, Route de la Reine | 92773 Boulogne-Billancourt | France www.ducker.com

2

Introduction

• The US arm of Ducker Worldwide has collected data on the growth and development ofaluminium content in automotive light vehicle applications on a bi annual basis since 1991

• For the first time, in 2011, Ducker Europe began to collect similar data for cars in Europe • The study was conducted in two phases• The first Phase of the methodology had the scope to gather internal information from EAA

members as well as of Ducker internal sources on the chosen components• In Phase II interviews with parts makers and OEMs in Europe have been conducted in order to

get all the missing information from Phase I, confirm or correct already existing data and clarify contradictions

• Data is collected on a “bottom-up” basis, meaning the market has been analysied on an OEM, platform-by-platform and product-by-product basis

• Primary research with OEMs, automotive suppliers, aluminum producers and other expert sources

• The contents of this report are not developed to be utilized as a “business planning document”; it was created with a trend line, marketing and public relations frame work to help educate the public on automotive applications of aluminum in Europe

• Information contained within this report should be considered “point in time;” and can change rapidly along with several external variables

Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide 1250 Maplelawn | Troy | Michigan | 48084 248.644.0086 www.ducker.com

Ducker examined all the components on this page for this study with a heavy concentration on the components in red which were chosen by the EAA members

3

Engines Steering Trim and Interiors Transmissions Body and Closures

Blocks Steering Knuckles Sun roofs Automatic, CVT & Dual Clutch Transmission cases

Complete body structures

Cylinder heads Column housings Sport racks Transfer Case Partial Body

Oil pans Rack & pinion housings Trim Power take off units Radiator supports

Intake manifolds Steering Wheels Wiper Arms Differential Carriers Instrument panel structures

Pistons Ball joint yokes Wiper motor housings Drive shafts Bumper beams

Water pump housings Chassis and Suspension Sun roof motor housings Yokes Crash boxes

Alternator cases Control arms Starter motor housings Heat Transfer Door intrusion beams

Fuel rails Lateral links Seat motor housings Radiators Front endsFront covers Sub-frames Seat pans Heater cores DoorsBed plates Cross members Seat frames Transmission coolers Hoods/bonnets

Powertrain Mounts Cradles Seat tracks Condensers Fender/wings

Timing chain covers Wheels and Brakes Seat belt spools and retractors Evaporators Deck lids/boots

Accessory brackets Wheels Air bag canisters Compressors Housings Lift gatesOil filter adapters Brake calipers Computer housings Compressor scrolls Tailgates

Cam covers Master cylinders Overhead rails Compressor pistons Roofs

Thermostat housings Brake pistons DVD enclosures Connection hardware Shock towers

Water outlet tubes ABS housings Running boards Oil coolers Truck bed rails

Valve Plates Drums & rotors Heat Sinks Receiver/dryers Ladder Frames

Heat shields

Introduction


4

These 57 vehicles were chosen by the EAA members for detailed analysis Segment Example Segment Example

Fiat 500(312) Audi A4(AU481)Fiat Panda(139) Audi Q5(AU416)Audi A1(AU210) BMW 3 (F30)Audi TT(AU324) Mercedes-Benz B-Class(W246)Citroen C3 Picasso(A58) Mercedes-Benz C-Class(W204)Citroen C3(A51) Opel Insignia(GM G3700)Lancia Ypsilon(846) Peugeot 508(W2)Opel Meriva(GM S4470) Porsche Panamera(970)Peugeot 208(A9) Volkswagen Passat(VW471)Renault Clio(X98) Volvo S60(Y283)Toyota Yaris(850L) Audi A6(AU571)Volkswagen Up Audi A7(AU573)Volkswagen Polo(VW250) Audi A8(AU641)Alfa Romeo Gulietta Audi Q7(AU716)Audi Q3 (AU 316) BMW 5 (F10)Audi A3(AU370) BMW 7 (F01/02)BMW 1 (F20) Jaguar XF(X250)Citroen C4(B7) Jaguar XJ(X351)Ford C-Max(C344) Land Rover Ranger Rover (L405)Ford Focus(C346) Mercedes-Benz E-Class(W212) )Ford Kuga Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W221)

Honda Civic(2HC) Mercedes-Benz-S-Class (W222)Jaguar XK(X150) Porsche Cayenne(E2)Land Rover Range Rover Evoque(L538) Volkswagen Touareg(VW526)

Mini Countryman(R60)Opel Astra(GM P3400)Opel Zafira(GM A3370)Peugeot 5008(T87)Renault Megane(X95)

Volkswagen Golf(VW370)Volkswagen Touran(VW368)

Volvo C30(Y279)Volvo XC60(Y413)

D

E

A

B

C

7,646,770 VehiclesRepresenting 44.4%

of the 2012 EU forecast

Introduction


Introduction

5

2012 Sample Vehicles Segmented by OEM

One half of the total production of these OEMs is represented by the sample

79% 73%52% 44% 44%

91%

62% 65%

40%19%

92%

35% 32%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Sample Share of Total 2012 Units for These OEMs

7,646,770 Sample Vehicles

OEM Sample Units OEM Sample UnitsBMW 975,403 Honda Civic 111,766GM 783,274 Volvo 190,899Audi 937,560 Porsche 81,670

Mercedes 698,611 Tata 187,188PSA 929,086 Volkswagen 1,041,596Fiat 573,868 Ford 553,987

Renault 361,472 Toyota Yaris 220,390Grand Total 7,646,770

* only one vehicle in the sample

VW14%

BMW13%

Audi12%

PSA12%

GM10%

Mercedes9%

Fiat8%

Ford7%

Renault5%

Toyota*3%

Tata3%

Volvo2%

Honda*1%

Porsche1%


Introduction

6

17,233,811 EU 27 Vehicles in 2012

VW19%

PSA13%

Renault11%

Ford10%

BMW8%

Mercedes8%

Audi7%

Fiat8%

GM5%

Toyota4%

Hyundai3%

Tata1%

All other3%

• Ideally we would have put 50% of each OEMs anticipated 2012 production into the sample

• This does not take into account the selection criteria of picking only recently launched vehicles. 96% of the sample was launched in the last 62 months

• On this basis, the sample contains 56% of all the vehicles launched in the EU in the last 62 months

SampleShare

Total EU Share

VW 14% 19%BMW 13% 8%Audi 12% 7%PSA 12% 13%GM 10% 5%

Mercedes 9% 8%Fiat 8% 8%Ford 7% 10%

Renault 5% 11%Toyota 3% 4%Tata 3% 1%

All Other 4% 6%

2012 EU Forecast


7

Introduction

When compared to total 2012 EU light production, the sample is over weighted with D & E segment vehicles. The sample does not contain any full frame vehicles. These decisions had a negative effect on the total EU aluminum content versus the sample

7,646,770 Vehicles 17,232,935 Vehicles

Total EU VehiclesSplit by Segment Sample Vehicles

Split by Segment

A6%

B22%

C35%

D22%

E15%

A7%

B31%

C34%

D16%

E8%

Other Full Frame

2%

Full Size Full Frame

2%


8

0

100

200

300

400

500

600Fi

at 5

00(3

12)

Fiat

Pan

da(1

39)

Vol

ksw

agen

Up

Ren

ault

Clio

(X98

)R

enau

lt M

egan

e(X9

5)La

ncia

Yps

ilon(

846)

Toyo

ta Y

aris

(850

L)O

pel M

eriv

a(G

M S

4470

)C

itroe

n C

3(A

51)

Citr

oen

C3

Pic

asso

(A58

)Vo

lksw

agen

Pol

o(VW

250)

Ope

l Zaf

ira(G

M A

3370

)Vo

lksw

agen

Gol

f(VW

370)

Peu

geot

208

(A9)

Ope

l Ast

ra(G

M P

3400

)P

euge

ot 5

008(

T87)

Aud

i A1(

AU

210)

Alfa

Rom

eo G

ulie

ttaFo

rd C

-Max

(C34

4)C

itroe

n C

4(B

7)B

MW

1 (F

20)

Ford

Foc

us(C

346)

Volk

swag

en T

oura

n(VW

368)

Ford

Kug

a(C

394)

Vol

ksw

agen

Pas

sat(V

W47

1)M

ini C

ount

rym

an(R

60)

Peug

eot 5

08(W

2)H

onda

Civ

ic(2

HC

)Vo

lvo

C30

(Y27

9)A

udi A

4(A

U48

1)O

pel I

nsig

nia(

GM

G37

00)

Mer

cede

s-B

enz

B-C

lass

(W24

6)A

udi A

3(A

U37

0)Vo

lvo

XC60

(Y41

3)A

udi Q

3(A

U31

6)V

olvo

S60

(Y28

3)M

erce

des-

Ben

z C

-Cla

ss(W

204)

BM

W 3

(F30

)La

nd R

over

Ran

ge R

over

Evo

que(

L538

)A

udi Q

5(A

U41

6)Vo

lksw

agen

Tou

areg

(VW

526)

Jagu

ar X

F(X

250)

Mer

cede

s-B

enz

E-C

lass

(W21

2)A

udi Q

7(A

U71

6)P

orsc

he C

ayen

ne(E

2)A

udi A

6(A

U57

1)B

MW

5 (F

10)

Aud

i TT(

AU

324)

Por

sche

Pan

amer

a(97

0)A

udi A

7(A

U57

3)M

erce

des-

Ben

z S-

Cla

ss(W

221)

BM

W 7

(F01

/F02

)M

erce

des-

Ben

z S-

Cla

ss(W

222)

Jagu

ar X

K(X

150)

Jagu

ar X

J(X

351)

Aud

i A8(

AU

641)

Land

Rov

er R

ange

Rov

er(L

405)Kilo

gram

s pe

r Sam

ple

Vehi

cle

Aluminum Intense(Doors and /or partial bodyand suspensions)

Executive Summary

Complete Bodies and

Suspensions

Aluminum hoods and suspensions

Below average aluminum content

Aluminum content ranges from 74.5 kg for the Fiat 500 to 561 kg for the Land Rover Range Rover. The average is 160 kg for the sample vehicles


Executive Summary

9

A-Segment 2012 Units kg/vehicle C-Segment 2012 Units kg/vehicleFiat Panda(139) 237196 75.5 Jaguar XK(X150) 5304 453Fiat 500(312) 169151 74.5 Land Rover Range Rover Evoque(L538) 99447 194.5B-Segment Volvo XC60(Y413) 100246 203.7Audi TT(AU324) 22336 269.7 Audi Q3(AU316) 91888 200.9Citroen C3 Picasso(A58) 71610 150.6 Audi A3(AU370) 43994 169.6Peugeot 208(A9) 295702 124.3 Audi A4(AU481) 222021 139Audi A1(AU210) 145125 119 Volvo C30(Y279) 22023 151.8Volkswagen Polo(VW250) 383198 102.3 Honda Civic(2HC) 111766 141.3Opel Meriva(GM S4470) 143234 102.8 Citroen C4(B7) 150235 133.7Citroen C3(A51) 202748 109.1 BMW 1 (F20) 216375 114.6Volkswagen Up 74964 86.2 Mini Countryman(R60) 98413 165.5Toyota Yaris(850L) 220390 96 Volkswagen Touran(VW368) 109670 141.4Renault Clio(X98) 115943 98.2 Ford Kuga(C394) 46099 129.3Lancia Ypsilon(846) 88315 78 Ford C-Max(C344) 131666 133.9D-Segment 2012 Units kg/vehicle Alfa Romeo Gulietta 79206 112.5Porsche Panamera(970) 26700 306.9 Ford Focus(C346) 376222 131.9Audi Q5(AU416) 117353 228 Peugeot 5008(T87) 73892 109.5BMW 3 (F30) 369718 198.4 Opel Zafira(GM A3370) 140453 130.3Mercedes-Benz C-Class(W204) 199313 202.9 Volkswagen Golf(VW370) 140323 126.8Volvo S60(Y283) 68630 184.3 Opel Astra(GM P3400) 364879 106.3Mercedes-Benz B-Class(W246) 164117 166 Renault Megane(X95) 245529 105.1Peugeot 508(W2) 134499 175.6 E-Segment 2012 Units kg/vehicleVolkswagen Passat(VW471) 260689 147.1 Audi A7(AU573) 33007 322.3Opel Insignia(GM G3700) 134708 148.6 BMW 5 (F10) 231809 307.3E-Segment 2012 Units kg/vehicle Audi A6(AU571) 168436 287.0Land Rover Range Rover(L405) 19717 561.3 Porsche Cayenne(E2) 54970 279.4Jaguar XJ(X351) 19169 546.3 Audi Q7(AU716) 50719 263.2Audi A8(AU641) 42681 538.2 Mercedes-Benz E-Class(W212) 275896 254.3Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W222) 6224 388.0 Jaguar XF(X250) 43551 238.5BMW 7 (F01/F02) 59088 353.4 Volkswagen Touareg(VW526) 73152 219.2

Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W221) 53061 331.7 Total 7,646,770 160.1


Executive Summary

The 2012 sample aluminum content is 1.224 million tons. The BMW 3 Series, BMW 5 Series and the Mercedes E Class are 17% of the total. 15 vehicles represent over 50% of all the sample tons. Total EU 27 aluminum content is estimated to be 2.4 million tons. The sample contains 52% of the total EU 27 content

10

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Jagu

ar X

K(X

150)

Vol

vo C

30(Y

279)

Vol

ksw

agen

Up

Ford

Kug

a(C

394)

Aud

i TT(

AU

324)

Aud

i A3(

AU

370)

Citr

oen

C3

Pica

sso(

A58)

Pors

che

Pana

mer

a(97

0)La

ncia

Yps

ilon(

846)

Peu

geot

500

8(T8

7)R

enau

lt C

lio(X

98)

Alfa

Rom

eo G

ulie

ttaJa

guar

XF(

X25

0)Ja

guar

XJ(

X35

1)A

udi A

7(A

U57

3)La

nd R

over

Ran

ge R

over

(L40

5)A

udi Q

7(A

U71

6)V

olvo

S60

(Y28

3)Fi

at 5

00(3

12)

Min

i Cou

ntry

man

(R60

)Po

rsch

e C

ayen

ne(E

2)O

pel M

eriv

a(G

M S

4470

)V

olks

wag

en T

oura

n(V

W36

8)O

pel Z

afira

(GM

A33

70)

Vol

ksw

agen

Tou

areg

(VW

526)

Hon

da C

ivic

(2H

C)

Vol

ksw

agen

Gol

f(VW

370)

Ford

C-M

ax(C

344)

Mer

cede

s-B

enz

S-C

lass

(W22

1)A

udi Q

3(A

U31

6)A

udi A

1(A

U21

0)V

olvo

XC

60(Y

413)

Fiat

Pan

da(1

39)

Peu

geot

508

(W2)

Citr

oen

C4(

B7)

BMW

7 (F

01/F

02)

Land

Rov

er R

ange

Rov

er…

Toyo

ta Y

aris

(850

L)C

itroe

n C

3(A

51)

Ope

l Ins

igni

a(G

M G

3700

)R

enau

lt M

egan

e(X

95)

Aud

i A8(

AU

641)

Aud

i Q5(

AU

416)

Mer

cede

s-B

enz

B-C

lass

(W24

6)BM

W 1

(F20

)A

udi A

4(A

U48

1)P

euge

ot 2

08(A

9)V

olks

wag

en P

assa

t(VW

471)

Mer

cede

s-B

enz

C-C

lass

(W20

4)V

olks

wag

en P

olo(

VW

250)

Ope

l Ast

ra(G

M P

3400

)A

udi A

6(A

U57

1)Fo

rd F

ocus

(C34

6)BM

W 5

(F10

)M

erce

des-

Ben

z E

-Cla

ss(W

212)

BMW

3 (F

30)

2012 Tons of Sample Aluminum Content

0 50000 100000

Audi Q5(AU416)Mercedes-Benz B-Class(W246)

BMW 1 (F20)Audi A4(AU481)

Peugeot 208(A9)Volkswagen Passat(VW471)

Mercedes-Benz C-Class(W204)Volkswagen Polo(VW250)

Opel Astra(GM P3400)Audi A6(AU571)

Ford Focus(C346)BMW 5 (F10)

Mercedes-Benz E-Class(W212)BMW 3 (F30)

Tons

Top 15 Vehicles


Executive Summary

Jaguar is the aluminum content leader in the sample. Fiat has the lowest aluminum content. Ducker believes that with the proper mix adjustment, these estimates, with the possible exception of Renault, are representative of each OEM’s total 2012 production

11

342.7

292.1275.9

226.3 218.4 218.2

181.6

140.1 130.3 126.8 125.5 119.696 91.1 82.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Kilo

gram

s pe

r Veh

icle

Weighted Average 2012 Aluminum Content by OEMfor the Sample Vehicles


12

Executive Summary

1.22 million tons or 160.1 kg per vehicle of aluminum content for the whole sample by segment

A2% B

16%

C32%

D22%

E28%

8%

9%

10%

12%

17%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

A

B

C

D

E

2012 Sample Aluminum Segment Share of Curb Weight

Segment Curb Weight kg Aluminum kg PercentA 930 75 8%B 1183 109 9%C 1358 135 10%D 1534 184 12%E 1795 301 17%

75103 109

135

184

301

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

A A/B B C D E

2012 Sample Aluminum Content by Segment

11.5% of curb weight for the Sample

Is aluminum


13

VW19%

PSA13%

Renault11%

Ford10%

BMW8%

Mercedes8%

Audi7%

Fiat8%

GM5%

Toyota4%

Hyundai3%

Tata1%

All other3%

VW14%

BMW13%

Audi12%

PSA12%

GM10%

Mercedes9%

Fiat8%

Ford7%

Renault5%

Toyota*3%Land Rover

2%

Volvo2% Jaguar

1%Honda*

1%Porsche

1%

2012 Sample

A6%

B22%

C35%

D22%

E15% A

7%

B31%

C34%

D16%

E8%

Other Full Frame

2%

Full Size Full Frame

2%

2012 Total EU

2012 Sample 2012 Total EU

Executive Summary

Applying the sample content per OEM to

the total EU production yields

144 kg/vehicle160kg/vehicle

160Kg/vehicle

Applying the sample content per

segment to the total EU production

yields

145kg/vehicle

This tells us that most of the difference

between the sample and the EU total was

simply due to OEM and vehicle mix not content


14

Sample aluminum content of 160 kg

Non sample aluminum content of 124 kg

Total EU 27 aluminum content of 140 kg

Executive Summary

The non sample vehicles contain 24% less aluminum per vehicle than the sample vehicles. This is due primarily to OEM and mix differences, not content differencesby segment for the sample and for the total production

+


Executive Summary

• The total increase in EU light vehicle aluminum content from 2006 to 2012 is estimated at 19.2 kg

• The increase in aluminum content over the same period in North America is estimated at only 13 kg. This is 50% of the aluminum growth experienced in North America in the period 2000 to 2006

• 40% of the aluminum part growth (excluding wheels ) in the sample is structural components. Currently, the EU leads the world in the use of high tech aluminum automotive components

15

In order to makehistorical

comparisons,these

component categorieshad to be

used

0.2

0.7

0.2

1

0.7

0.3

0.7

2.2

0.9

5.6

6.7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

All Other Components includingTrim and Sun roofs

Heat Exchangers

Brakes

Closures

Body & IP Beams

Heat Shields

Bumper Beams and Crash Boxes

Engines with Mounts

Transmission & Driveline

Chassis, Suspension & Steeringwith Knuckles

Wheels with Spares

2006 - 2012 EU Aluminum (kg) Content Increase


16

Summary by Segment

30.5 Thousand tons or 75.1 kg per vehicle of aluminum

in the A Segment

Wheels24%

Transmission18%

Heads17%

Heat Exchangers10%

Other Engine10%

Crash Management6%

Other steering and brakes

6%

Heat Shields3%

All other Parts3%

Driveline1%

PT mounts1%

Sun roofs1%

Sample A Segment

Wheels26%

Blocks13%

Transmission12%

Heads10%

Other Engine9%

Heat Exchangers8%

Other steering and brakes6%

Subframes5%

Heat Shields3%

All other Parts2%

Crash Management2%

BIW1%

PT mounts1% Sun roofs

1%Arms, IP beams, Closures, Knuckles, Driveline, Trim

0%

Sample B-Segment

192.5 Thousand tons or109 kg per vehicle of

aluminum in the B Segment

Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate


17

Summary by Segment

Wheels26%

Transmission12%

Blocks13%

Heads11%

Other Engine9%

Heat Exchangers8%

Other steering and brakes6%

Subframes5%

Heat Shields3%

Crash Management2%

All other Parts2%

BIW1%

PT mounts1% Sun roofs

1%Driveline, IP beams, Closures,

Arms, knuckles, Trim<1%

Sample A/B-Segment

223.1 Thousand tons or103 kg per vehicle of aluminum

in the A/B Segment

Wheels21%

Transmission12%

Heat Exchangers9%

Blocks8%Other Engine

11%

Heads9%


5%

Knuckles3%

Crash Management4%

Subframes3%

Arms3%

Heat Shields2%

Driveline2%

Closures2%

All other Parts2%

PT mounts2%

Trim1%

Sun roofs1%

IP beams, BIW <1%

Sample C-Segment

388.3 Thousand tons or135.3 kg per vehicle of

aluminum in the C Segment



18

Summary by Segment

Wheels21%

Other Engine11%

Transmission9%

Heat Exchangers9%

Heads7%

Blocks7%

Subframes6%


5%

Closures4%

Knuckles4%

Crash Management3%

Arms3%

BIW3%

Driveline2%

Heat Shields2%

PT mounts2% All other Parts

1%

Trim1%

IP beams1%

Sun roofs1%


aluminum in the D Segment

Sample D-Segment• The D segment in Europe is

very similar in aluminum content to the D/E segment in North America.

• This segment is12% aluminum as a share of curb weight

• 50% of the vehicles have aluminum hoods and bumpers, and some vehicles have partial aluminum body structures

• Aluminum content in this segment is ripe for continued growth.



19

Wheels15%

Closures13%

BIW11%

Other Engine9%Transmission

8%Heat Exchangers

7%

Heads6%


5%

Subframes5%

Knuckles4%


3%Arms3%

Driveline2%

Crash Management2%

Heat Shields2%

All other Parts1% Trim

1%


aluminum in the E Segment

Summary by Segment

Sample E Segment • In totality, the E Segment is not the most important segment going forward, but for the last 15 years it has been the global benchmark for new aluminum structural applications in autos

• The average content for the sample and for the entire segment is near 300kg per vehicle

• Only U.S. pickup trucks as a vehicle segment are likely to ever rival this European segment for aluminum content

• 40% of the components in this segment, not including wheels, are high tech structural parts

• At 17% of curb weight, aluminum penetration is nearing the practical limit in this segment



20

With the exception of the E Segment, the sample average segment content differences versus total EU and versus other regions are minimal compared to the OEM mix differences which cause most of the variation

Summary by Segment

7096 105

130175

290

128

050

100150200250300350

A A/B B C D E FullFrame

2012 EU TotalAverage of 140 kg

75103 109

135

184

301

7096 105

130

175

290

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

A A/B B C D E

SampleTotal

2012 EU SampleAverage of 160 kg

EU Sample160 kg versus Total 140 kg

72% of delta is mix and 28% is content

110135

151

190

96130

175

290

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

A/B C D E

North AmericaEU

EU Total 140 kg/vand NA Car 145 kg/v

75103 109

135

184

301

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

A A/B B C D E


21

0500000

100000015000002000000250000030000003500000400000045000005000000

North America

EU 27

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

A/B 4%

C 17%

D 20%

E 5%

SUV26%

MPV6%

Full Frame22%

North America

A/B 27%

C 21%D

13%

E 8%

SUV14%

MPV11%

Full Frame6%

EU 27

Same number of D+E Cars

A look at the segment differences between Europe and North America

UnitsShare

Summary by Segment

The big difference between

European and North American

light vehicle mix is the large share of A/B vehicles in Europe

and the high share ofD Segment and SUVs

in North America. The big difference between the full frame use is not relevant

for this study


Product Form Analysis

Rolled, extruded and forged wrought products were a surprisingly high 30% share of the total aluminum content in the sample. These product forms are estimated to be 27% of the total content of 2.4 million aluminum content tons

22

1.22 Million Tons of aluminum for the sample segmented by

product form

Product Forms for the Sample of 7.65 Million Vehicles

Cast70%

Rolled14%

Extruded11%

Forged 4%

Cobapress1%


• Compared to the sample wrought product total of 30%, the 2012 Total EU wrought product share is 27% and the 2010 wrought product share is 26%

23

Cast73%

Rolled13%

Extruded10%

Forged 4%

Total EU 2012 140 kg/vehicle

Cast74%

Rolled13%

Extruded10%

Forged 3%

Total EU 2010 134 kg/vehicle

Cast70%

Rolled14%

Extruded11%

Forged 5%

2012 Sample 160 kg/vehicle

Product Form Analysis


24

US 2025:107

EU 2020: 95

Japan 2020: 105China 2020: 117

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Gra

ms

CO

2pe

r kilo

met

er, n

orm

aliz

ed to

NED

CUS-LDV

California-LDVCanada-LDV

EU

Japan

China

S. Korea

Australia

Solid dots and lines: historical performanceSolid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targetsHollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal

[1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower.[2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.

Global fleet CO2 emissions performance andcurrent or proposed standards adjusted for the European test cycle

Emissions and Fuel Economy Analysis

Europe has very aggressive targets for CO2 reduction

Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide 1250 Maplelawn | Troy | Michigan | 48084 248.644.0086 www.ducker.com 25

Ducker has assumed several characteristics about the future in order to determine the most likely aluminum light vehicle content in Europe by 2015, 2020 and beyond

Aluminum will provide 50% to 75% of this weight reduction

• Regulations will require OEMs in their totality to reduce CO2 emissions by 40 grams per kilometer over the next eight years

• Average car curb weight (adjusted for new safety and comfort features) will decline by 5% between 2012 and 2025

Comments:Assumptions:

• Aluminum is 80% to 30% effective for weight reduction versus steel depending on the type of steel it replaces

• Aluminum indirectly provide another 30% weight savings. Advanced high strength steel and footprint reduction will provide the remaining 20%

The estimates we have for similar requirements in the U.S. are relevant to Europe

• The similarities between EU and U.S. car characteristics, their similar CO2 reduction targets by 2020 and the overlap of OEMS strategies provides insight on what will happen to aluminum growth in Europe over the next eight - ten years

• North American cars will need to add 40 kg of aluminum by 2020 and 64 kg by 2025

Alternative powertrain acceptance will remain at less

than 10% of the solution through 2025

• Gasoline or diesel/electric hybrids or plug-in electric) acceptance is moving at a snails pace in Europe. Regulators are counting on a surge in acceptance, but the cost and inconvenience will inhibit consumers much more than the regulators anticipate

100 kg of weight reduction saves 8 grams of CO2 per

kilometer. This is a 5% reduction

Market DriversFuture Aluminum Content Analysis


Future Aluminum Content Analysis

26

2012 Values EU Light Vehicles U.S.Car

U.S. Light Truck

U.S. Combined

Curb Weight kg 1372 1435 2016 1743Footprint square meters 3.97 4.2 5 4.55

kg/square meter 346 342 419 383Aluminum Content kg 140 145.6 165 156

Aluminum kg/m2 35.3 34.7 33 34.3CO2/kilometer 135* 163** 215** 183**2020 CO2/km 95* 113** 163** 132**

CO2 2012 - 2020 Delta 40* 50** 52** 51**2025 CO2/km 70*** 89** 126** 101**

Except for the CO2 emissions, the similarities for vehicle characteristics and 2012 aluminum content between the EU 27 and the U.S./NA are much greater than the differences (see below). Cars in the U.S have to reduce CO2 by 30% by 2020, and 45% by 2025. The required reduction in Europe is 29% by 2020, and 48% by 2025. Cars in North America and Europe should add similar quantities of aluminum over the next 8 years on a kilogram per square meter basis, and similar quantities from 2020 to 2025

***Ducker Forecast for 2025. As yet, there is no

EU regulation for 2025*NEDC Test Cycle **EPA CAFÉ Test Cycle



Analysis of the cost/benefit of lightweighting with EU Regulation EC 443/2009• The table below shows that with a 95€ / g CO2 penalty every kg of light weighting is worth

7.6 € with a footprint based legislation and 3.26 € with a mass based legislation. The reason for the big change is that while a 100 kg weight reduction actually saves 8 g and with a footprint based regulation moves you 8 g closer to the target, it only moves you 3.43 g closer with a mass based regulation.

• Indeed with a mass based regulation each 100 kg of light weighting means a 4.57g tougher target. With a footprint based regulation the target does not shift if the mass is changing.

• Given that the cost for light weighting with aluminium is normally in the range of 2-8 €/kg (depending on the application). Obviously a cost/benefit calculation for aluminium light weighting will have a better chance for positive results with a footprint based regulation than with a mass based regulation.

27


A previous short term trend analysis predicted 144 kilograms of aluminum content by 2015. The current trend analysis and market evidence supports a forecast of 150 kg per vehicle in 2015, and the theoretical CO2 based analysis supports 180 kg by 2020

28

121

131

136

144

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2006 Forecast for 20152012 Forecast for 2015

121

134140

150

180

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200 2012 Forecast 2015 - 2020


Estimate

StudyMarket

Model150


Ducker believes the aluminum additions in the A/B and C segments are more important than the additions to the D and E segments. Without the smaller vehicles, aluminum content can not get to 180 kg per vehicle

29

Required Aluminum Additions to Raise Aluminum Content by 40 kg

96130

175

290

128 140

34

55

35

15

1540

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

A/B C D E Full Frame Total

Kilo

gram

s pe

r Veh

icle Added by 2020

2012


Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide 89, Route de la Reine | 92773 Boulogne-Billancourt | France www.ducker.com

30

This concludes our report. Thank you.

This presentation was prepared by Ducker Research SAS. Opinions and estimates constitutejudgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Anyinterpretations derived from these findings are the sole responsibility of the client. Reproductionwithout the explicit consent of Ducker Research SAS is strictly prohibited.

For 50 years, Ducker Worldwide has enabled clients to navigate and thrive in a dynamic, global marketplace.Our unique and proven combination of custom market intelligence, critical thinking and strategic consultingcreate valuable opportunities that deliver critical results.

For more information regarding our strategic services, expertise and to learn how Ducker Worldwide can helpyou, please contact one of our team members at +33 1 46 99 59 60 or visit our website at www.ducker.com

Documents

EAA Aluminium Penetration in Cars Final Report Public Version