IIII nnnnssss iiii

ddddeeee :::: Teens, Substance Abuse,

and Driving...............6

Survey and Analysis Retrospective...........10

Hot off the Press.........13

• UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE • JULY–SEPTEMBER 2001 • VOLUME 32, NUMBER 3 •

U M T R I

The Importance ofBeing seenon page1

Nonmotorist VVVVIIIISSSSIIIIBBBBIIIILLLLIIIITTTTYYYY::::

ISSN 0739 7100

Writer and Editor: Monica MillaDesigner and

Cover Photographer: Shekinah ErringtonPrinter: UM Printing Services

The UMTRI Research Review is published four times

a year by the Research Information and Publications

Center of the University of Michigan Transportation

Research Institute, 2901 Baxter Road, Ann Arbor,

Michigan 48109-2150 (http://www.umtri.umich.edu). The subscription price is $35 a year, pay-

able by all subscribers except those who are staff members

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soring research at the Institute. See the subscription

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The University of Michigan, as an equal opportunity/affirma-tive action employer, complies with all applicable federal andstate laws regarding nondiscrimination and affirmative action,including Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972 andSection 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973. The Universityof Michigan is committed to a policy of nondiscrimination andequal opportunity for all persons regardless of race, sex, color,religion, creed, national origin or ancestry, age, marital status,sexual orientation, disability, or Vietnam-era veteran status inemployment, educational programs and activities, or admissions.Inquiries or complaints may be addressed to the University'sDirector of Affirmative Action and Title IX/Section 504Coordinator, 4005 Wolverine Tower, Ann Arbor, Michigan48109-1281, (734) 763-0235, TTY (734) 647-1388. Forother University of Michigan information call (734) 764-1817.

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• UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE • JULY–SEPTEMBER 2001 • VOLUME 32, NUMBER 3 •

CONFERENCES& EVENTS

Fundamentals of Seat Ride DynamicsOctober 17–18, Troy, Michiganhttp://www.sae.org/

calendar/sempart.htm#ride

Transportation 2001: A Time& Space OdysseyOctober 22–24, Williamsburg,Virginiahttp://www.utexas.edu/depts/

ctr/trf/conference/index.html

Injuries, Anatomy, Biomechanics,and Federal RegulationOctober 29–30, Troy, Michiganhttp://www.sae.org/

calendar/semsafe.htm#injuries

SAE 2001 India Mobility ConferenceNovember 1–3, Chennai, Indiahttp://www.saeindia.org/Even

ts/conference2001.html

First Human-CenteredTransportation SimulationConferenceNovember 4–7, Iowa City, Iowahttp://www.nads-sc.uiowa.

edu/hctsc/

Motor Vehicle Accident ReconstructionNovember 5–7, Troy, Michiganhttp://www.sae.org/calendar/

semsafe.htm#motor

International Truck and BusMeeting and ExhibitionNovember 12–14, Chicago, Illinoishttp://www.sae.org/

calendar/itb/

Current Issues in Using Crash Injury DataNovember 13, Troy, Michiganhttp://www.sae.org/calendar/

semsafe.htm#current

45th STAPP Car Crash ConferenceNovember 15–17, San Antonio, Texashttp://www.stapp.org/

2001: Road Safety Research, Policing, andEducation ConferenceNovember 18–20, Melbourne, Australiahttp://www.monash.edu.au/

oce/roadsafety

Second InternationalConference on Smart Urban TransportNovember 19–21, Brisbane, Australiahttp://www.

transportroundtable.com.auRRRR

U M T R I

UMTRI Research Review 1

continued…

the importance of

being seenRetroreflectiveGarments Save

Nonmotorists’ Lives

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Each year in theUnited States,pedestrians, pedal-

cyclists, and workers inroad construction zones arekilled by motor vehicles be-cause drivers couldn’t detectthe nonmotorist in time.

In 1999, 4,906 pedestrians werekilled and 85,000 were injured in traf-fic crashes. In the same year, 750 pedalcyclists were killed, and 51,000injured. Jim Sayer, assistant researchscientist in UMTRI’s Human FactorsDivision, says, “At nighttime pedestri-ans and pedalcyclists dramatically overestimate their ability to be seen,and drivers dramatically overestimatetheir ability to see.” In any given year,between 120 and 130 roadway work-ers die in road construction activities.

About 23 percent of these pedestrian roadworkers are struck by traffic pass-ing through a work zone and 19 percent are struck by con-struction vehicles in the work zone.Overall, nonmotorist fatalities accountfor 14 percent of all traffic fatalities.When involved in a traffic accident,pedestrians are as much as six timesmore vulnerable to fatality when compared with injuries incurred bymotorists involved in traffic accidents.Children and the elderly, in particular,are disproportionately represented inpedestrian fatalities because the formerare more likely to rely on walking as aprimary mode of transit and the lattermay be frail.

Motorists and nonmotorists alikeoverestimate their ability to see and beseen at night, and the comparative riskof pedestrian crashes in darkness is as

much as 4.14 times higher than in daylight. According to a recentUMTRI study, the elevated risk topedestrians in darkness is likely theresult of inadequate visibility distance,as provided by low-beam headlamps,for motor vehicle speeds normally ob-served in darkened conditions. Inother words, motorists tend to “outdrive” the ability of low-beam head-lamps and therefore fail to detect andavoid pedestrians in the dark.

Visibility in Darkness and Light

Color contrast between an objectand its surrounding area contributes

significantly to daytime visibility.However, at night, the dominant fac-tor is most often luminance contrast.Luminance contrast can be achieved byilluminating the object itself (eitherinternally or externally) or by relyingon motor vehicle headlights to illumi-nate the object. Although we rely onheadlamps to illuminate objects in theroadway environment at night, retrore-flective materials are special because wealso rely on special optical propertiesof the objects themselves to redirectlight back to the driver. The amountof light returned to the source willdepend on the lighting geometry andretroreflective properties of the illu-minated material. Road signs, lanemarkings, and road edge delineatorsare just a few examples of retroreflec-tive materials used to aid nighttimedriving. Sayer explains, “Research hasshown that, at night, retroreflectivematerial worn by pedestrians is mostnoticeable to motorists if it is placedon major joints or the extremities,such as the wrists and ankles.” Whenpedestrians wear retroreflective

materials on their extremi-ties, the motions associatedwith walking make it easierfor motorists to identify theobject with retroreflectors as a pedestrian. This effecthas been referred to as

biomotion. However, placing retrore-flective material on the torso is alsobeneficial because the torso providesroom for large amounts of retroreflec-tive material.

Pedestrians VersusRoadworkers

Roadworkers often contend withdifferent roadway environments thanthose that pedestrians or ped-alcyclists face. State laws typically govern the wearingof reflective clothing by road-workers, particularly if workis being performed in a post-ed road construction zone.Under these circumstances,motorists often expect to seeroadworkers when they entera construction zone, andtemporary signs reinforce thisexpectation while forcingtraffic to slow down. However, as pre-viously stated, roadworkers are also indanger of being struck by constructionvehicles within the work zone. Thereare also some regulations for pedalcy-clist markings, including state-by-stateregulations and industry standards for

bicycle reflectors, but the accident statistics might suggest that these stan-dards are not enough. And there areno regulations at all to require the useof retroreflectors by pedestrians. Innighttime situations when visibility dis-tances are relatively short, motoristsare less likely to see a pedestrian orpedalcyclist who is not wearingretroreflective materials. As a result,

two-thirds of all pedestrian and cyclistaccidents occur at night. The mostcommon pedestrian accidents are atintersections or when a pedestrian iscrossing a street, while pedalcyclistaccidents more frequently occur whenthe pedalcyclist is traveling parallel to

the motor vehicle traffic.Sayer says, “The ideal

is for high visibility bothduring the day and night,and it would be even bet-ter if you could providedrivers with visual cues asto whether the person isa pedestrian, pedalcyclist,or roadworker. Oneapproach to distinguish-ing between classes ofnonmotorists might be toplace retroreflectors onpersons in such a mannerthat a motorist could

2 July–September 2001

FIGURE 1. A diagram ofthe experimental setup forsome recent UMTRI studies.

“At night, pedestrians and

pedalcyclists dramatically over-

estimate their ability to be seen,

and drivers dramatically over-

estimate their ability to see.”

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distinguish between nonmotoristsclasses by recognizing movementsthat are characteristic of what a classof nonmotorists is doing.”

Still, there are many similaritiesamong classes of nonmotorists. Sayercontinues, “When talking about fatal-ities, you can’t separate the nonworkerfrom the roadworker. The same qual-ities of retroreflective material holdfor both. Pedestrian deaths in recentyears have decreased, but the rate isstill high when you consider the percentage of people walking. Thefundamental qualities of materials intended to improve roadworker visi-bility are just as applicable to pedestrianvisibility and vice versa.”

Countermeasures toNonmotorist Fatalities

at Night

Various countermeasures havebeen proposed to reduce nonmotoristfatalities. One such countermeasure isthe introduction of educational cam-paigns aimed at school-aged children.Educational campaigns have been cred-ited for significantly reducing the number of child-pedestrian deaths andinjuries. However, most of the pro-

posed countermeasures rely heavily onchanges to the roadway infrastructure;some are easily implemented at a reasonable cost, but others requiresubstantial restructuring of the road-way environment to separate vehiclesand pedestrians. Unfortunately, manyof these infrastructure-based counter-measures are either cost prohibitive orimpractical, particularly for rural set-tings with lower levels of pedestriantraffic and limited infrastructures cur-rently in place.

The least expensive countermeasuremay be educating and encouragingnonmotorists of all ages to wear high-visibility garments, such as light-coloredgarments and especially those that

include retroreflective markings, whenexposed to traffic. Currently, federalregulations in the United States governthe safety apparel worn by flaggers androadworkers. Flaggers must wearreflectorized garments at night, androadworkers must wear garments thatare reflectorized or made of high-visibility materials. Since 1975, theConsumer Product Safety Commissionhas required bicycle manufacturers toequip new bicycles with a series ofretroreflectors to help motorists detectpedalcyclists at night. However, Sayersays, “It is very unlikely that any stateor federal authority will mandate thatpedestrians wear high-visibility orreflectorized garments-despite theirknown safety benefit.”

Various studies show that wearingretroreflective materials, or lightedmarkings, significantly increases thedistance at which drivers can detectnonmotorists. Sayer says, “Researchhas shown that at night motorists tendto out drive their headlamps by travel-ing at speeds that limit their ability torespond in time to obstacles once they

UMTRI Research Review 3

A roadworker commented

that the vests “make us look

like bright orange pumpkins.”

CONSTRUCTIONAHEAD

CONSTRUCTIONAHEADA B

FIGURE 2. A diagram of the cluttered condition for evaluating the selection ofretroreflective materials used in roadworker safety vests.

continued…

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are illuminated by the headlamps.”At night, the visibility distance of adark-clad pedestrian who is illuminatedby low-beam headlamps is approxi-mately one-half the distance requiredto stop a vehicle that is traveling 55mph. However, the nighttime visibili-ty distance for nonmotorists can beincreased if the nonmotorist is wear-ing retroreflective markings.

UMTRI StudiesShed Light on

retroreflectors

In a recent nighttime field studyconducted by Sayer and Mary LynnMefford, research associate atUMTRI, the effects of retroreflectivematerial area, distribution, and coloron judgments of conspicuity wereassessed. Results indicate that color(white, fluorescent yellow-green, and fluorescent red-orange) significantlyaffected judgments of notice-ability. Yet for all three colors,neither the distribution ofthe material nor the age or gender of the observeraffected how noticeable the retro-reflective stimuli appeared. However,the amount of material (area) had asignificant effect on visibility—withmore material resulting in higherjudgments of noticeability. Sayer says,“It appears to be important for mate-rials to contrast with the surroundingenvironment so the nonmotoriststands out from the background. Yet,familiarity is also likely to influencethe noticeability of a nonmotorist. Forexample, people expect orange andwhite clad roadworkers in work zones,but a variety of other orange and whiteobjects also exist in the work zone,such as barrels. By adding fluorescentyellow to roadworker vests, for exam-ple, you are likely to increase the colorcontrast between the worker and the

surrounding materials, while still main-taining roadworker familiarity.”

Not all retroreflective materialsreflect color, but for those that do,color may be effective in increasing thevisibility of nonmotorists. As the resultof a psychological phenomenon knownas the Helmholtz-Kohlrausch effect,people perceive colored stimuli (suchas red and green) to be brighter than

neutral stimuli (suchas white and gray)when the stimuli arematched photometri-cally (i.e., a lightmeter would say thatthey are giving offequal amounts oflight). “At night, theuse of color can be

effective becauseyou may be ableto use less of acolored retrore-flective materialthan of a whitethat is photomet-rically equal,because coloredmaterial is per-ceived to bebrighter.” Sayersays. “Our

research has shown,for example, that forlarge amounts ofmaterial, equivalentto that used in aroadworker vest,you’d have to usemuch more whiteretroreflective mate-rial than red materialif the materials arephotometricallymatched. However,most retroreflectivematerials of variouscolors are not photo-metrically matched,

and in fact vary in their retroreflectivepower (the efficiency of reflecting lightback to the source of illumination).Therefore, in many instances a retrore-flective material that is white or silver,as opposed to colored, will make thenonmotorist more noticeable at nightsimply because of its efficiency inreflecting light. Whether it is whitelight or colored light that is reflected

4 July–September 2001

UMTRI research has shown the following facts

about the visibility ofretroreflective materials:

• The greater the area of retro-reflective material, the greaterthe visibility.

• Color contrast within the garment, as well as relative tothe surroundings, affects judg-ments of noticeability duringthe daytime.

• A suggested color combinationthat might provide the mostnoticeable roadworker safetyapparel for daytime conditionsis fluorescent yellow and fluo-

rescent orange.

• The color of a retroreflective marking(red, yellow, or green) affects the dis-tance at which a pedestrian can bedetected at night; colored retroreflectivemarkings were detected at longer dis-tances than a photometrically matchedwhite marking.

• Whether white or colored light is reflected back to amotorist, more light is always better as it increases thedistance at which a motorist can detect a nonmotorist.

50 mm

orangeyellowwhiteyelloworange

50 mm

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back to a motorist, more light is alwaysbetter as it increases the distance atwhich a motorist can detect you.”

In another recent study, Sayer andMefford examined how color contrast(in daytime and nighttime) affectsnoticeability of roadworker vests. Theymatched fluorescent orange and yellowfabrics with orange, yellow, or silverretroreflective trim arranged to looklike a roadworker safety vest. Compar-isons were made between stimuli todevelop a scale of how noticeable vari-ous color combinations appearedunder cluttered and uncluttered view-ing conditions. (See figure 2.) Theresults showed that color contrastwithin the safety vest, as well as relativeto environmental surroundings, affectsjudgments of noticeability during theday. At night, color contrast was notidentifiable in this study because all ofthe retroreflective materials used ap-peared white when illuminated. As aresult, the retroreflective power of thetrim material accounted for almost allof the relative judgments of noticeabil-ity. The results suggest that a designfor roadworker safety apparel that in-cludes a combination of fluorescent

yellow and fluorescent orange materi-als (providing color contrast) is likelyto improve the daytime conspicuity of roadworkers.

Sayer et al. also conducted a night-time field study to assess the effects ofcolor on the detection of retroreflec-tive pedestrian markings. Observerswere seated in a stationary vehicle withits headlights on and were asked toindicate at what distance a moving pe-destrian, wearing small retroreflectivemarkings on her legs, was first detect-able. (See figure 1.) Independent variables in the study included color ofthe marking (matched for retroreflec-tive power), retroreflective power, andobserver age. The study showed thatthe color of a retroreflective marking(red, yellow, or green) affects the dis-tance at which a pedestrian can bedetected; colored retroreflective

markings were detected at longer dis-tances than a photometrically matched white marking.

Let There be Light

The results of UMTRI research onnonmotorist visibility show that theretroreflective power, color, and place-ment of retroreflective materials canmake the nonmotorist more easily de-tected. The studies, most of which werefunded by the Human Factor’s IndustryAffiliate Program, produced resultsthat may help to improve safety forroadworkers and pedestrians in general.

Sayer says, “For optimum visibility,one must combine approaches andissues, consider the amount and place-ment of the retroreflective materials,and make decisions about tradeoffs incolor and retroreflective power.”

One roadworker commented thatthe vests “make us look like brightorange pumpkins.” Not much of afashion statement, but a good atten-tion grabber for both passing motoristsand fellow crew members who areoperating heavy machinery.

UMTRI Research Review 5

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Teens,SubstanceAbuse, andDriving

Jean Shope, head ofUMTRI’s Social andBehavioral Analysis

(SBA) Division, is workingwith experts from severalUniversity of Michigandepartments on researchprojects regarding teens,substance abuse, and injuryin motor vehicle crashes.

Teens and MotorVehicle Crashes

Motor vehicle crashesare the major cause of deathand serious disability inteenagers and young adults.The SBA Division is work-ing with both the UMSchool of Public Health andthe Medical School on along-term collaborativeproject regarding youngpeople and alcohol use,related to motor vehiclecrashes. The project, spon-sored by the NationalInstitute on Alcohol Abuseand Alcoholism, aims tounderstand the predictorsthat explain adolescent andyoung-adult high-risk driv-ing behavior—particularlyalcohol-related drivingbehavior—and to enhancethe design of interventionsaimed at modifying high-risk driving behavior.

The study debuted in1991 with principal investi-gators Shope and Patricia F.Waller, then the director ofUMTRI and now retired.Over the years, the studyexpanded and involvedmore researchers, includingRoderick Little, departmentchair of the UM BiostatisticsDepartment and professorat the School of PublicHealth; Trivellore E.Raghunathan, associate pro-fessor in the UM School ofPublic Health; C. RaymondBingham, assistant researchscientist in psychiatry at theUM Medical School;Michael R. Elliot, a formergraduate student researchassistant and now an assistant professor at theUniversity of PennsylvaniaSchool of Medicine; andSujata Patil, a graduate student research assistant,recently appointed to a

6 July–September 2001

Alcohol-related driving behavior is highest in young adults. A recent follow-up survey of respon-dents at ages twenty-three and twenty-four found how parental influence and substance use intheir teen years affected the respondents’ later driving behavior.

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postdoctoral fellowship withthe UM Substance AbuseResearch Center.

Shope says, “Manyexperts, from various UMdepartments, have madeessential contributions tothis study over theyears. The knowl-edge, resources,and perspectivesof different disci-plines combine tomake the study a success.”

The projectwas piggy-backedonto earlierresearch, based inthe UM MedicalSchool in whichShope was in-volved, with initialdata collectionstarting in 1984from fifth andsixth graders insix southeasternMichigan publicschool districts. Data werecollected from self-adminis-tered questionnaires thatincluded psychosocial andsubstance-use measures.The respondents completedmore questionnaires whenthey reached tenth andtwelfth grades. Starting in1992, students’ names andbirth dates were submittedannually to the MichiganSecretary of State’s office,and driver history data wereobtained for over 13,000subjects. The data havebeen updated each year asdrivers age. Most of the stu-dents completed the surveybefore they started driving,

so their predriving experi-ences can be used as predictors of subsequentdriving behavior.

Recently, the study wasextended from the teenyears through the young

adult years, when alcohol-related driving behavior isthe highest of any agegroup. A follow-up phonesurvey was conducted whenthe respondents were five tosix years out of high school(at ages twenty-three totwenty-four). The surveygathered self-reported driv-ing information and updat-ed demographic, substanceuse, and psychosocial data.

Specifically, the follow-up examined how substanceuse (of alcohol, cigarettes,and marijuana) and otherinfluences act as predictorsof offenses and crashes. Oneset of analyses examined

parental influences in termsof monitoring, nurturing,permissiveness, family con-nectedness, and familystructure. The results showthat predictor trends aresimilar for men and women,

and that, in general, morepositive parentalinfluences reportedbefore licensure—particularly moni-toring, nurturing,and family con-nectedness—weresignificantly asso-ciated with lowersubsequent ratesof serious offensesand serious crash-es. Also, for bothsexes, higher self-reported use ofcigarettes, mari-juana, and alcoholbefore licensurewas significantlyassociated with

higher subsequent rates ofserious offenses and seri-ous crashes.

As illustrated in the fig-ure, the likelihood of havingat least one serious offensefor those with negative parental influences and highsubstance abuse is 73 per-cent for men and 40 percentfor women, whereas withpositive parental influencesand low substance abuse,the rates are 52 percent formen and 25 percent forwomen. The likelihood ofhaving at least one seriouscrash is 42 percent for menand 27 percent for womenwith negative parental

UMTRI Research Review 7

The longitudinal study:

• Examines the relationship of alcohol use/misuse and pre-

vious school-based alcohol prevention programs to high-

risk adolescent and young adult driving

• Looks at problem-behavior theory risk factors, as well as

protective factors, to determine their relationship with high-

risk driving behavior among adolescents and young adults

• Develops recommendations for prevention efforts in the

policy, education, and enforcement areas targeted toward

high-risk driving behavior, particularly alcohol-related, of

adolescents and young adults

Collaborations

influences and high substanceabuse, and 28 percent formen and 17 percent for wo-men with positive parentalinfluences and low sub-stance abuse.

However, even thebest-scenario numbers arehigh due to significant riskydriving during the earlyyears of licensure. The pre-vention implications thatcame out of the studyinclude supporting parents’roles, providing substanceabuse prevention programs,and encouraging parents’involvement in young peo-ple’s driving. Shope says,“Substance abuse preven-tion among young peoplehas been an importanteffort, and is worthy ofbeing sustained and enhancedin the broadest sense toreduce the consequences ofsubstance use both frommotor vehicle crashes aswell as from other high-risk behaviors.”

For more informationon this study, see “Adolescentantecedents of high-riskdriving behavior into youngadulthood: substance useand parental influences,” in Accident Analysis &Prevention, volume 33, issue5, September 2001, pp.649–658.

Adolescent InjuryPrevention

Shope is also involvedin a project to prevent alco-hol-related adolescentinjury, which is sponsoredby the National Center forInjury Prevention and Con-trol, Centers for DiseaseControl and Prevention.Other investigators on theproject include Dr. RonaldF. Maio, principal investiga-tor of this project, associateprofessor and associate chairof research in emergencymedicine, and assistant re-search scientist with UMTRI;and Dr. Frederic C. Blow,associate professor of psy-chiatry and psychology, andsenior associate research sci-entist at UMTRI.

The study was devel-oped around the fact thatinjury is a major cause ofadolescent morbidity andmortality, and alcohol is fre-quently associated withinjury. The goal of this three-year project is to preventalcohol use and misuseamong adolescents, therebydecreasing their risk of alco-hol-related injuries. Theproject will ideally reinforceother alcohol preventionefforts in homes, churches,schools, and communities.

To meet this goal, theteam developed an interac-tive computer program thattakes adolescents throughvarious drinking scenariosand makes them think abouttheir alcohol use. The pro-gram hopes to:

• Increase knowledgeabout the effects of alcohol

• Promote more posi-tive attitudes aboutnot using or abus-ing alcohol

• Encourage more positive behavior-al intentions.The study has been

conducted in two sites: anacademic medical center anda community teaching hos-pital. Teens aged fourteento eighteen, who came intothe emergency room forinjuries other than majortrauma, suicide attempts,sexual assault, or poisoning,were asked to participate inthe study. The interactivecomputer software runs ona laptop with animated gra-phics and consists of a survey,an interactive house party,and a post-party survey.

The initial survey con-sists of thirty-three questionsthat assess demographics,knowledge, attitudes, andalcohol behavior. The houseparty section lets teens randomly assigned to theintervention group choose a“party pal” and visit differ-ent rooms in the house,while they learn about alcohol use and misuse.After leaving the virtualparty, they are asked twenty

8 July–September 2001

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additional questions, includ-ing how they can say no toalcohol in various situations.

At three and twelvemonths after completing theprogram, the teens partici-pate in a follow-up phonecall that measures how theprogram has affected theirsubsequent behavior.

Most teens said theyliked the software and it madethem think about their alco-hol use. One participantcommented, “I really en-joyed the program andthought it was interesting. Ididn’t know all of the factsincluded in the program.”

UMTRI Research Review 9

Teens use the interactive computer program developed in thestudy. It takes them through various drinking scenarios andmakes them think about alcohol use.

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Ken CampbellRetires fromUMTRIA Career ofContribution to Survey and Analysis

Ken Campbell, head ofthe Survey and Analysis Division,recently retired from UMTRI aftertwenty-six years of service. He hasaccepted a position as program manag-er of transportation safety at the OakRidge National Laboratory, whichbuilds on his experience at UMTRI.

Campbell holds a Ph.D. inmechanical engineering from theUniversity of Wisconsin and startedworking at UMTRI in 1974 as anassistant research scientist. He had pre-viously worked as a research engineerfor General Motors. He was promotedto associate research scientist in 1977,to research scientist in 1991, and tosenior research scientist in 1997.Campbell had led the group since theearlier Systems Analysis Division dis-solved in the mid-1980s.

While in school, Campbell focusedon traffic safety, including a disserta-tion on occupant safety using accidentdata. His first job was with GeneralMotors in biomechanics, working onthe neck of the hybrid II test dummy.He also worked at the GM ProvingGrounds doing barrier crash testingand field data collection. In 1974, hecame to UMTRI to pursue his interestin passenger occupant protection.UMTRI was part of a landmark devel-opment in that area and had field accident investigation teams. Campbellexplains, “UMTRI, in collaboration

with the UM Institute for SocialResearch, first proposed the notionthat NHTSA needed nationally repre-sentative accident data, and UMTRI

developed the original designof the National AccidentSampling System (NASS, nowknown as the NationalAnalysis Sampling System).”

Starting in 1975,Campbell led a multiyear pro-gram to assess the nationalsafety impact of a new truck

air brake standard, FMVSS 121. Theproject culminated with Campbellbeing called to present the study find-ing of no significant safety benefit to aSenate committee. The standard wassubsequently dropped until improvedbraking systems were developed.

In the early 1980s, the statisticalmodeling taking place at UMTRI wasthe best in its day. An example was theanalysis of the National CollisionSeverity Study (NCSS, the precursor toNASS) data. Phyllis Gimotty and TedChira-Chavala developed multivariateprobit models relating the probabilityof injury to the type of collision,restraint use, and occupant age. TheNCSS study was the pilot test for anaccident reconstruction algorithm tocalculate collision severity. The algo-rithm was developed at Calspan (nowVeridian) and used energy estimationtechniques developed by Campbell,which are still used today both inNorth America and in Europe.

Survey and Analysis Growsunder Campbell

The Survey and Analysis Divisionconsists of three main groups: theCenter for National Truck Statistics,the Transportation Data Center, andStatistical Analysis. There is also a newinitiative under the TransportationData Center, the Center forInternational Transportation Data.

Center for National Truck Statistics

Campbell served as the directorfor the Center for National TruckStatistics from its inception in 1988until 2001 (Dan Blower, assistantresearch scientist in the Survey andAnalysis Division, has now taken over).The Trucks Involved in Fatal Accidents(TIFA) Survey was started in 1980.From 1985 through 1987, a majornational survey of truck travel, theNational Truck Trip InformationSurvey (NTTIS), was conducted. In1988, this program was formalized asthe Center for National TruckStatistics to collect and analyze truckaccident and travel data.

Campbell’s work also includes a 1991 project on large truck crash-worthiness. The study assessed thepotential safety benefit of restraint use,improvements in cab interior surfaces,and cab structural improvements. Theproject used information from in-depthinvestigations carried out by the Nation-al Transportation Safety Board andintegrated it with national data on heavytruck occupant fatalities from TIFA.

More recently, Campbell and histeam were involved in hours-of-serviceresearch to develop baseline estimatesof the prevalence and risk of truckdriver fatigue in fatal accidents.Estimates of the vehicle miles of traveland accidents involving fatigue are tab-ulated for various segments of thetrucking industry. The incidence offatigue accidents is combined with thetravel data to estimate the overall riskof fatigue in fatal accidents, The studyuses data from UMTRI’s TIFA filesand the 1992 Truck Inventory and Use Survey, conducted by the Bureauof the Census.

Currently, the center is addressinga methodology to study the causes ofheavy truck accidents. The method,

10 July–September 2001

developed by Blower, has been adopt-ed for a major national study, the LargeTruck Crash Causation Study, to beconducted by the National HighwayTransportation Safety Administrationfor the Federal Motor Carrier SafetyAdministration. Campbell currently sitson a Transportation ResearchBoard advisory committee forthis study.

Transportation Data Center

The Transportation DataCenter started in 1968,before Campbell arrived atUMTRI, to study transporta-tion safety using real-worlddata. Campbell says, “In late1968, analyzing accident datapresented a computing chal-lenge. The TDC group wasformed to provide the soft-ware to meet this challenge.Motor vehicle manufac-turers were the primary sponsors and the data centerprovided data for researchersand manufacturers.”

The primary purpose wasdata access and computingability. Campbell explains, “In thosedays, data was stored on magnetic tapeand all the formatting information foreach file had to be passed to an analy-sis program. By the early 1970s, TDChad developed an easy interface thatsimply prompted for an eight-charactername to access the data, making thecomplexity of data storage transparentto the user.”

Today the TDC continues to helpreduce injury and suffering, and the associated costs of crashes, by provid-ing transportation safety researchersworldwide with expert consulting anda readily accessible source of motorvehicle crash data. It is currently in-volved in several ongoing projects withmembers of the traffic safety community.

Statistical AnalysisThe Statistical Analysis group

applies statistical methods in the analysisof traffic safety, including collision-avoidance and crashworthiness issues.Projects generally involve the analysisof accident and travel data to study the

risk of accident involvement or the riskof injury in a collision.

In the 1990s, Dawn Massie pro-duced a series of interesting studies ofthe relationship of accident risk todriver age and gender for the Insur-ance Institute for Highway Safety.Massie combined travel data from theNationwide Personal TransportationSurvey with data on fatal and nonfatalaccidents from NHTSA. Initial resultswere controversial because theyshowed women to have higher ratesfor nonfatal accidents. Subsequentmultivariate models revealed that thisresult was a consequence of an inter-vening variable, annual travel.

Campbell and Massie initiated work onthe development of collision typologiesthat classify accidents in ways that facil-itate identification of collision situationswith the greatest potential for ad-vanced collision avoidance technology.More recently, Campbell was a mem-

ber of the independent eval-uation team for the IVIGeneration 0 field operationtests, which address amethodology for estimatingsafety benefits of collisionavoidance technology.

Campbell and Blowerexamined injury-producingcontact rates. Using datafrom the NHTSA NationalAccident Sampling System(NASS) CrashworthinessData System (CDS), theydeveloped injury-producingcontact rates for passengervehicle drivers in tow-awayfrontal collisions. The injuryrate was calculated as thenumber of injury-producingcontacts per 100 driversinvolved in a collision. Thecontact rates were specific toinjury severity, body region

injured, and contact point of theinjury. These injury-producing contactpoints were used to compare fourrestraint configurations: unrestrained,three-point belted, driver airbag alone,and driver airbag plus three-point belt.

More recently, Hans Joksch, aresearch scientist at UMTRI, hasdeveloped some innovative analyticapproaches for the study of airbageffectiveness and vehicle compatibility in collisions for NHTSA. Joksch hasdeveloped estimates of the probabilityof fatality for drivers at the make-model level by combining FARS andGES data. His work on airbag effec-tiveness has focused on situationswhere the effectiveness is unusually

UMTRI Research Review 11

The Survey and Analysis Division has threegroups that analyze transportation safety issuesbased on the actual highway experience:

• Center for National Truck Statistics

• Statistical Analysis

• Transportation Data Center

This is an important complement to the laboratory-based research carriedout in the other divisions. As an interdisciplinary team, the divisionaddresses the driver, vehicle, and roadway dimensions of the transporta-tion system. The foundation of the division’s approach is a commitmentto data quality developed from experience with field data collection, sur-vey methods, and state and federal data files. The Transportation DataCenter maintains a library of transportation-related datasets.

The interdisciplinary approach includes consideration of the interactionbetween the driver, vehicle, and roadway. Factors associated with the riskof a collision, and the risk of injury in a collision, are identified by apply-ing multivariate statistical methods. Overall, the goal is to produce objective information on the performance of the transportation system.

continued…

high or low. Such situations can provide insights to improve airbag performance. To address vehicle com-patibility issues, Joksch has addedinformation from the New CarAssessment Program (NCAP) onstructural stiffness and vehicle geome-try, the two main sources of vehicleincompatibility in collisions. Again,multivariate models are developed torelate these factors to the increased riskof fatality that arises from a lack ofstructural compatibility when vehiclesof differing design collide.

The members of the StatisticalAnalysis group often work with otherdivisions in providing experimentaldesigns or in developing statisticalmodels, for example to identify factorsassociated with misadjusted truck airbrakes or to study heavy truck mirrors.

Center for InternationalTransportation Data

Campbell initiated the Center forInternational Transportation Data(CITD) in 2000 as an expansion of theefforts of the UMTRI TransportationData Center to encompass globalissues. Campbell says, “By sharinginformation globally, we hope toimprove road safety and the qualityand consistency of data worldwide.”Cooperative projects include determin-ing the effects of drinking age onOntario drivers in the United Stateswith the University of Western Ontarioin Canada, and defining U.S. crashcharacteristics in rollovers, frontalcrashes, and collision types to makebetter protection systems with AutolivResearch & Development in Germany.

CITD was formed based on aHarvard report, the Global Burden ofDisease and Injury. This project was aworldwide collaboration of over 100researchers (sponsored by the WorldHealth Organization and the World

Bank, based at the Harvard School ofPublic Health) that investigated trendsof all major causes of death worldwide.Among medical causes, transportation-related injuries and deaths were fore-cast to move from the ninth to thethird leading causes of injuries anddeaths in the next twenty years, withthe growth taking place in developingcountries. “The global picture of trans-portation safety is becoming more andmore important,” Campbell says.“Historically, UMTRI has focused onanalyzing only U.S. data, but it wouldbe beneficial to compare techniquesand methods with those of othercountries,” Campbell says. “The ini-tial goal of the CITD is to identify and catalog all international datasources and to act as a referral service.The program is promising but re-quires funding.”

An Eye on the FutureCampbell has enjoyed his work at

UMTRI, and watching his divisiongrow over the years. He says, “I stayedat UMTRI for a long time because it’sa great place to work. The staff isexcellent and I enjoyed the people Iworked with. They are engaged inwork that tries to save lives. Our grouphas benefited greatly from the oppor-tunity to collaborate with outstandingpeople in other UMTRI units that are leading their fields, such asBiosciences, Engineering Research,and Human Factors.

Still, when the position at OakRidge presented itself, Campbell saw itas a good opportunity. He says, “Myfamily thought the time was right for achange. I’m looking forward to exchang-ing cold weather and flat land for awarmer clime and mountains. I’ve definite-ly had second thoughts about leavingUMTRI, but the chance to be in anorganization building new capabilitiesand training new people addresses a crit-ical need in transportation.”

Oak Ridge is associated with therecently completed National Transpor-tation Research Center, a collaborationwith the University of TennesseeTransportation Center.

As to the future of the Survey andAnalysis Division, Campbell says, “DanBlower is already adding buses to the truckprogram, and there are prospects of ahazardous material supplement, as well as an expansion to nonfatal acci-dents.” A search is underway to hire a new head of UMTRI’s Survey Analysis Division.

12 July–September 2001

Ken Campbell enjoys a moment with hiswife Paula and daughter Masha at hisretirement party at UMTRI.

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Conference PapersEby, D.; Molnar, L. 2000. “Feature preferences for advanced traveler infor-

mation systems by United States tourists.” Michigan University, AnnArbor, Transportation Research Institute, Social and BehavioralAnalysis Division. 8 p. ISATA International Symposium on AutomotiveTechnology and Automation, 33rd, Intelligent TransportationSystems/Surface Transportation. Epsom, England, ISATA, 2000, pp.93–100. Sponsored by Michigan University, Ann Arbor, ITS ResearchCenter of Excellence. Report No. 00ITS004.

Flynn, M. S.; Belzowski, B. M.; Alkire, K. F.; Kang, G. 2000. “Globalization,restructuring, and e-commerce: a North American view.” MichiganUniversity, Ann Arbor, Transportation Research Institute, Office for theStudy of Automotive Transportation. 7 p. ISATA InternationalSymposium on Automotive Technology and Automation, 33rd,Safety/Automotive Interiors. Epsom, England, ISATA, 2000, pp. 11–17.

Green, P. 2001. “Safeguards for on-board wireless communications.”Michigan University, Ann Arbor, Transportation Research Institute,Human Factors Division. Plastics in Automotive Safety Conference, 2ndAnnual, 5 Feb 2001, Troy, Mich.13 p.

Klinich, K. D.; Schneider, L. W.; Moore, J. L.; Pearlman, M. D. 2000.“Investigation of crashes involving pregnant occupants.” MichiganUniversity, Ann Arbor, Transportation Research Institute, BiosciencesDivision/Michigan University, Ann Arbor, Medical School. 19 p.Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine. 44th annualconference. Proceedings. Chicago, Ill., Association for the Advancementof Automotive Medicine, 2000, pp. 37–55. Sponsored by GeneralMotors Corporation, Warren, Mich.

Streff, F. M.; Molnar, L. J. 2000. “Estimating blood alcohol content from anational telephone survey.” Michigan University, Ann Arbor,Transportation Research Institute, Social and Behavioral AnalysisDivision. 10 p. Association for the Advancement of AutomotiveMedicine. 44th annual conference. Proceedings. Chicago, Ill.,Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine, 2000, pp.379–388. Sponsored by National Highway Traffic SafetyAdministration, Washington, D.C.

Journal ArticlesEby, D. W.; Molnar, L. J.; Olk, M. L. 2000. “Trends in driver and front-right

passenger safety belt use in Michigan: 1984–1998.” MichiganUniversity, Ann Arbor, Transportation Research Institute, Social andBehavioral Analysis Division. 7 p. Accident Analysis and Prevention,Vol. 32, No. 6, Nov 2000, pp. 837–843. Sponsored by MichiganOffice of Highway Planning, Lansing; National Highway Traffic SafetyAdministration, Washington, D.C.

Eby, D. W.; Kostyniuk, L. P.; Vivoda, J. M. 2001. “Restraint use patterns forolder child passengers in Michigan.” Michigan University, Ann Arbor,Transportation Research Institute, Social and Behavioral AnalysisDivision. 8 p. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 33, No. 2, 2001,pp. 235–242. Sponsored by Traffic Safety Association of Michigan,Detroit; National Safety Council, Chicago, Ill.

Reed, M. P.; Manary, M. A.; Schneider, L. W. 2000. “The effects of forwardvision restriction on automobile driving posture.” Michigan University,Ann Arbor, Transportation Research Institute, Biosciences Division. 17p. Transportation Human Factors, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2000, pp. 173–189.Sponsored by American Automobile Manufacturers Association,Detroit, Mich.

Waller, P. F.; Elliott, M. R.; Shope, J. T.; Raghunathan, T. E.; Little, R. J. A.2001. “Changes in young adult offense and crash patterns over time.”Michigan University, Ann Arbor, Transportation Research Institute,Social and Behavioral Analysis Division/[Michigan University, AnnArbor, Institute for Social Research and Biostatistics]/[MichiganUniversity, Ann Arbor, School of Public Health]. 12 p. AccidentAnalysis and Prevention, Vol. 33, No. 1, 2001, pp. 117–128.Sponsored by National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism,Rockville, Md.

Technical ReportsBareket, Z.; Blower, D. F.; MacAdam, C. 2000. Blowout resistant tire study

for commercial highway vehicles. Michigan University, Ann Arbor,Transportation Research Institute, Engineering Research Division. 56 p.Sponsored by Transportation Department, Washington, D.C. ReportNo. DOT/HS 809 172/UMTRI-2000-28.

Eby, D. W. 2000. How often do people use safety belts in your community?A step-by-step guide for assessing community safety belt use.Michigan University, Ann Arbor, Transportation Research Institute,Social and Behavioral Analysis Division. 45 p. Sponsored by MichiganOffice of Highway Planning, Lansing; National Highway Traffic SafetyAdministration, Washington, D.C. Report No. UMTRI-2000-19.

Eby, D. W.; Vivoda, J. M.; Fordyce, T. A. 2000. The effects of standardenforcement on Michigan safety belt use: a 3-month follow-up; [The effect of standard enforcement on Michigan safety belt use: a 3-month follow-up] Michigan University, Ann Arbor, TransportationResearch Institute, Social and Behavioral Analysis Division. 59 p.Sponsored by Michigan State Office of Highway Safety Planning,Lansing. Report No. UMTRI-2000-33.

Eby, D. W.; Shope, J. T.; Molnar, L. J.; Vivoda, J. M.; Fordyce, T. A. 2000.Improvement of older driver safety through self evaluation: the devel-opment of a self-evaluation instrument. Michigan University, AnnArbor, Transportation Research Institute, Social and BehavioralAnalysis Division. 134 p. Sponsored by Transportation Department,Washington, D.C.; General Motors Corporation, Warren, Mich. ReportNo. UMTRI-2000-04.

Eby, D. W.; Molnar, L. J.; Shope, J. T. 2000. Driving decisions workbook.Michigan University, Ann Arbor, Transportation Research Institute,Social and Behavioral Analysis Division. 47 p. Sponsored byTransportation Department, Washington, D.C.; General MotorsCorporation, Warren, Mich. Report No. UMTRI-2000-14.

Eby, D. W.; Kostyniuk, L. P.; Vivoda, J. M.; Fordyce, T. A. 2000. Patterns ofchild restraint use in Michigan. Michigan University, Ann Arbor,Transportation Research Institute, Social and Behavioral AnalysisDivision. 81 p. Sponsored by Michigan State Office of Highway SafetyPlanning, Lansing. Report No. UMTRI-2000-30.

Ervin, R.; MacAdam, C.; Walker, J.; Bogard, S.; Hagan, M.; Vayda, A.;Anderson, E. 2000. System for Assessment of the Vehicle MotionEnvironment (SAVME): volume I. Michigan University, Ann Arbor,Transportation Research Institute, Engineering ResearchDivision/Veridian Environmental Research Institute of MichiganInternational, Ann Arbor, Mich./Nonlinear Dynamics. 116 p.Sponsored by National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,Washington, D.C. Report No. UMTRI-2000-21-1.

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Ervin, R.; MacAdam, C.; Walker, J.; Bogard, S.; Hagan, M.; Vayda, A.;Anderson, E. 2000. System for Assessment of the Vehicle MotionEnvironment (SAVME): volume II. Michigan University, Ann Arbor,Transportation Research Institute, Engineering ResearchDivision/Veridian Environmental Research Institute of MichiganInternational, Ann Arbor, Mich./Nonlinear Dynamics. 137 p.Sponsored by National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,Washington, D.C. Report No. UMTRI-2000-21-2.

Flynn, M. S.; Belzowski, B. M.; Alkire, K. F.; Senter, R. H.; Hill, K.; Cragen, J.C.; Mateyka, J. A.; Wujciak, D. K. 2000. Competing for customers: thefuture of automotive retailing. Michigan University, Ann Arbor, Transporta-tion Research Institute, Office for the Study of Automotive Transportation/Kearney, A. T., Chicago, Ill. 69 p. Report No. UMTRI-2000-29.

Green, P. 2000. Crashes induced by driver information systems and what canbe done to reduce them. Michigan University, Ann Arbor,Transportation Research Institute, Human Factors Division. 10 p.Automotive Electronics: Delivering Technology’s Promise. Warrendale,SAE, 2000, pp. 27-36. Report No. SAE 2000-01-C008.

Kantowitz, B. H. 2000. “Effective utilization of in-vehicle information: inte-grating attractions and distractions.” Michigan University, Ann Arbor,Transportation Research Institute. 7 p. Automotive Electronics:Delivering Technology’s Promise. Warrendale, SAE, 2000, pp. 43–49.Report No. SAE 2000-01-C011.

Reed, M. P.; Ebert, S. M.; Flannagan, M. J. 2001. Mirror field of view in lighttrucks, minivans, and sport utility vehicles. Michigan University, AnnArbor, Transportation Research Institute, Human Factors Division. 43p. Sponsored by Michigan University, Ann Arbor, Industry AffiliationProgram for Human Factors in Transportation Safety. Report No.UMTRI-2001-1.

Sivak, M.; Flannagan, M. J.; Schoettle, B.; Nakata, Y. 2001. Field measure-ments of direct and rearview-mirror glare from low-beam headlamps.Michigan University, Ann Arbor, Transportation Research Institute,Human Factors Division. 21 p. Sponsored by Michigan University, AnnArbor, Industry Affiliation Program for Human Factors inTransportation Safety. Report No. UMTRI-2001-3.

Streff, F. M.; Kostyniuk, L. P. 2000. Survey of public perceptions of trafficlaw enforcement in Michigan. Michigan University, Ann Arbor,Transportation Research Institute, Social and Behavioral AnalysisDivision. 117 p. Sponsored by Michigan Office of Highway Planning,Lansing; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington,D.C. Report No. UMTRI-2000-37.

Tsimhoni, O.; Watanabe, H.; Green, P.; Friedman, D. 2000. Display of shorttext messages on automotive HUDs: effects of driving workload andmessage location. Michigan University, Ann Arbor, TransportationResearch Institute, Human Factors Division. 49 p. Sponsored by NissanResearch Center, Kanagawa (Japan) Report No. UMTRI-2000-13. RRRR

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