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7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice
1/31
Preparations and PrerequisitesPreparations and Prerequisitesfor thefor the
Introduction of InflationIntroduction of InflationTargeting in RomaniaTargeting in Romania
Presentation by Deputy Governor Cristian PopaPresentation by Deputy Governor Cristian Popa
National Bank of RomaniaNational Bank of Romania
NBRNBR--BoEBoE Conference onConference on Inflation Targeting: International Experience andInflation Targeting: International Experience andRomaniaRomanias Prospectss Prospects
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice
2/31
Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
OutlineOutline1.1. Recap: Context and Initial SpecificationsRecap: Context and Initial Specifications
2.2. Internal PreparationsInternal Preparations2.1 Organizational issues2.1 Organizational issues
2.2 The Policy2.2 The Policy--Making ProcessMaking Process
2.3 Forecasting2.3 Forecasting
2.4 Communication issues2.4 Communication issues
3.3. Prerequisites for Inflation TargetingPrerequisites for Inflation Targeting
3.1 Absence of Fiscal Dominance3.1 Absence of Fiscal Dominance
3.2 International Comparisons3.2 International Comparisons
4.4. Steps AheadSteps Ahead
7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
1.1. Recap:Recap: Context and InitialContext and Initial
SpecificationsSpecifications
Inflation targeting mentioned in RomaniaInflation targeting mentioned in Romanias Mediums Medium--Term StrategyTerm Strategyfor Economic Development (2000), confirmed infor Economic Development (2000), confirmed in PEPsPEPs (2002 and(2002 andbeyond)beyond)
Initial specifications:Initial specifications: (i) target specified in terms of CPI;(i) target specified in terms of CPI; (ii) mid(ii) mid--point with band (some tolerance for undershooting target);point with band (some tolerance for undershooting target); (iii) annual targets w. multi(iii) annual targets w. multi--period perspective (initially two years);period perspective (initially two years);
(iv) flexible interpretation of inflation targeting (esp. coexis(iv) flexible interpretation of inflation targeting (esp. coexistence w.tence w.managed float regime);managed float regime);
(v) existence of few(v) existence of few ex anteex antedefineddefinedexceptionsexceptionsconditional toconditional toattaining the target;attaining the target;
(vi) joint announcement of target with government(vi) joint announcement of target with government
7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
2.1 Organizational Issues2.1 Organizational Issues Task force set up to implement the IT framework, led byTask force set up to implement the IT framework, led by
coordinating DGcoordinating DG
Monetary Policy DepartmentMonetary Policy Department Research and Publications DepartmentResearch and Publications Department
Macroeconomic Modeling and Forecasting DepartmentMacroeconomic Modeling and Forecasting Department
Development of a detailed quarterly macroeconomic forecastingDevelopment of a detailed quarterly macroeconomic forecastingframeworkframework
Centralized databaseCentralized database
Data monitoring & reportingData monitoring & reporting
Expectations surveyExpectations survey
NearNear--term forecasting of key variablesterm forecasting of key variables
MediumMedium--term forecasting model, consistent with achievingterm forecasting model, consistent with achieving
multimulti--period inflation targetsperiod inflation targets
7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice
5/31Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Conference onConference onInflation TargetingInflation Targeting
Preparing the Introduction of Inflation TargetingPreparing the Introduction of Inflation Targeting
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
QUARTERLY MODEL PROJECTIONS
inflation and relevant variables
Data managementData management
DETAILED MACROECONOMIC DATA
raw historical data for domestic and
external variables updated on a regular
basis
near-term forecasts for external
variables
Central NBR database
Cut-offdate
NEAR-TERM FORECASTS (NTF)
domestic and external variables
exogenous for the core model
Satellite models
NTFs for domestic exogenous
variables (RPD, MPD and MMFD)
External sources
Consensus Forecasts
CURRENT POSITION OF THE
ECONOMY (initial conditions for the
core model)
equilibrium values for relevant
variables and their medium term
profile
DATA FOR THE CORE MODEL
Satellite models (MMFD)
Expert judgment
The core model
(MAMTF)
3rd party forecasts (surveys)
7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
2.2 The Policy2.2 The Policy--Making ProcessMaking ProcessRole of the NBR BoardRole of the NBR Board Exceptional initial involvement in model specification, startingExceptional initial involvement in model specification, starting
conditions (in order to foster ownership/understanding:conditions (in order to foster ownership/understanding:successfulsuccessfuldialogue with the modeldialogue with the model))
Final decisionFinal decision--making bodymaking body
Focuses on how to best employ forecasts in policy makingFocuses on how to best employ forecasts in policy making
In practical terms:In practical terms:
identifies alternative scenarios to consider or special issues tidentifies alternative scenarios to consider or special issues to beo beexamined from the viewpoint of strategy (examined from the viewpoint of strategy (big decisionsbig decisions); these); theseare then run through model again for consistencyare then run through model again for consistency
judges how the path for the policy interest rate should bejudges how the path for the policy interest rate should be
adjusted to account for uncertainties and risksadjusted to account for uncertainties and risks
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Role of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)Role of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
Institutionalized analytical forum at staff/executiveInstitutionalized analytical forum at staff/executivemanagement levelmanagement level
Critical focus on ensuring that all relevant information isCritical focus on ensuring that all relevant information isbrought to bear on the forecastsbrought to bear on the forecasts
In practical terms:In practical terms:
responsible for reviewing assumptions on initial conditionsresponsible for reviewing assumptions on initial conditionsfor the forecasts, including the outlook for exogenousfor the forecasts, including the outlook for exogenous
variablesvariables reviewing the projections and formulating policyreviewing the projections and formulating policy
recommendations for the Board, including analyses of theirrecommendations for the Board, including analyses of theirtechnical implicationstechnical implications
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Quarterly Forecasting & Decision ScheduleQuarterly Forecasting & Decision Schedule
Final projection meetingFinal projection meetingTask ForceTask Force meetingmeetingTT--1818
Start of Forecasting CycleStart of Forecasting Cycle
Discussion & Eventual Adoption ofDiscussion & Eventual Adoption ofInflationInflationReportReport
BoardBoard meetingmeetingT+6T+6
Discussion of forecasting cycle andDiscussion of forecasting cycle andInflationInflation
ReportReportMPCMPC meetingmeetingT+3T+3
Forecasts andForecasts andInflation ReportInflation Reportsent tosent to
MPCMPCInflation ReportInflation ReportTT
Monetary Policy DecisionMonetary Policy DecisionBoardBoard meetingmeetingTT--1010
Forecasts and risk scenariosForecasts and risk scenariosMPCMPC monthly meetingmonthly meetingTT--1515
Initial conditions, equilibrium conditions,Initial conditions, equilibrium conditions,
exogenous variables and NTFexogenous variables and NTF
MPCMPC meetingmeetingTT--2323
Initial conditions, equilibrium conditions andInitial conditions, equilibrium conditions and
exogenous variablesexogenous variablesTask ForceTask Force meetingmeetingTT--2727
NearNear--Term Forecasts (NTF)Term Forecasts (NTF)Task ForceTask Force meetingmeetingTT--3434
Policy review and decisionPolicy review and decisionBoardBoard regular monthly meetingregular monthly meeting
Policy review and recommendationPolicy review and recommendationMPCMPC regular monthly meetingregular monthly meeting
Other projection detailsOther projection detailsTask ForceTask Force Second issues meetingSecond issues meetingTT--5151
Model meetingModel meetingTask ForceTask Force First issues meetingFirst issues meetingTT--5757DetailsDetailsEventEventTimeTime
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Based on formalized models and expert judgmentBased on formalized models and expert judgment
Two types of modeling approaches:Two types of modeling approaches:
Estimation approach at the shortEstimation approach at the short--run horizonrun horizon
Calibration approach at the mediumCalibration approach at the medium--term horizonterm horizon
Final forecast integrates information from shortFinal forecast integrates information from short--term models,term models,mediummedium--term model and expert judgmentterm model and expert judgment
2.3 Forecasting2.3 Forecasting
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
2.3.1 Near2.3.1 Near--Term ForecastingTerm ForecastingFrameworkFramework TwoTwo--quarter horizon at presentquarter horizon at present
A set of methods (one model approach is risky)A set of methods (one model approach is risky)
Economic theory as a basis of analysis, but applied toEconomic theory as a basis of analysis, but applied to
statistical data (estimation vs. calibration)statistical data (estimation vs. calibration)
Tool for simulating the impact of changes in exogenousTool for simulating the impact of changes in exogenous
variablesvariables
Used for analysis and for establishing the initial conditions foUsed for analysis and for establishing the initial conditions forrthe QFMthe QFM
O O O
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
NearNear--term Inflation Forecastingterm Inflation Forecasting
Two methods:Two methods:
Expert judgement forecast for CPI componentsExpert judgement forecast for CPI components
ARMAX model for the main CPI inflation components (ARMAX model for the main CPI inflation components (yoyyoy data,data,monthly frequency)monthly frequency)
FoodFood
NonNon--food excluding regulated and fuel pricesfood excluding regulated and fuel prices Services excluding regulated pricesServices excluding regulated prices
Exogenous variables: EUR/ROL and EUR/USD exchange rates,Exogenous variables: EUR/ROL and EUR/USD exchange rates,
net wagesnet wages,, regulated prices, fuel pricesregulated prices, fuel prices
The forecast presented to the MPC = weighted average of the resuThe forecast presented to the MPC = weighted average of the resultsltsprovided by the two methods (with 0.65 weight given to the ARMAXprovided by the two methods (with 0.65 weight given to the ARMAX
model)model)
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
NearNear--term GDP Forecastingterm GDP Forecasting
Small semiSmall semi--structural model (structural model (qoqqoq))
Behavioural equations for household consumption, grossBehavioural equations for household consumption, grossfixed capital formation, exports, imports and core inflationfixed capital formation, exports, imports and core inflation
Exogenous variables:Exogenous variables:
EUR/ROL and EUR/USD exchange rates, publicEUR/ROL and EUR/USD exchange rates, public
consumption, net wagesconsumption, net wages,, regulated prices, fuel prices, 3Mregulated prices, fuel prices, 3MEuriborEuribor, euro area GDP, HICP, euro area GDP, HICP
OLS andOLS and 22SLS estimation with error correction mechanismSLS estimation with error correction mechanism
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
2.3.2 Medium2.3.2 Medium--Term ForecastingTerm Forecasting
HistoryHistory
Assembling the Model for Analysis and MediumAssembling the Model for Analysis and Medium--Term ForecastingTerm Forecasting(MAMTF) started in mid(MAMTF) started in mid--20042004
Significant progress achieved, with technical assistance supportSignificant progress achieved, with technical assistance support fromfromtwo IMF missions and bilateral exchanges/expert visits with thetwo IMF missions and bilateral exchanges/expert visits with the CzechCzechNational Bank (MAMTF conceived in similar fashion to Czech QPM)National Bank (MAMTF conceived in similar fashion to Czech QPM)
Two forecasting dry runs to test MAMTF adequacy and the functionTwo forecasting dry runs to test MAMTF adequacy and the functionalalintegration of shortintegration of short--term and expert information; currently in secondterm and expert information; currently in seconddry rundry run
FirstFirst--pass calibration of MAMTF based on priors discussed by thepass calibration of MAMTF based on priors discussed by theBankBanks Boards Board
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Model open to continuous improvement, while maintainingModel open to continuous improvement, while maintaining
the core structurethe core structure
Small semiSmall semi--structural calibrated model with a Newstructural calibrated model with a New--KeynesianKeynesiancore (ST and MT noncore (ST and MT non--neutrality)neutrality)
Economy assumed to converge to wellEconomy assumed to converge to well--defined and stabledefined and stablelonglong--run equilibriumrun equilibrium
Deviations from trendsDeviations from trends thethegapsgaps-- reflect cyclical behaviorreflect cyclical behaviorof the economy, while trends are analogous to steadyof the economy, while trends are analogous to steady--statestate
values (primarily assessed on inflation neutrality)values (primarily assessed on inflation neutrality)
General characteristics of MAMTFGeneral characteristics of MAMTF
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Core inflation determined by its structural persistence, agentsCore inflation determined by its structural persistence, agents expectations,expectations,output gap, and import price inflationoutput gap, and import price inflation
Output gap orOutput gap orexcess demandexcess demandfactor determined by its own persistence and realfactor determined by its own persistence and realmonetary conditions, incl.monetary conditions, incl. gapsgapsof real (bank) interest rates and real exchangeof real (bank) interest rates and real exchange
raterate
Exchange rate determined according to uncovered interest parityExchange rate determined according to uncovered interest parity
relationshiprelationship
including a risk premiumincluding a risk premium
Monetary policy behavior (as implied by flexible inflation targeMonetary policy behavior (as implied by flexible inflation targeting) described by ating) described by aforwardforward--looking policy interest rate rule that reacts to deviations of ilooking policy interest rate rule that reacts to deviations of inflation fromnflation from
target, the output gap and excessive interest rate volatilitytarget, the output gap and excessive interest rate volatility
AgentsAgents expectations modeled as hybrids of backwardexpectations modeled as hybrids of backward--looking (inertial) andlooking (inertial) andforwardforward--looking (looking (modelmodel--consistentconsistent) expectations) expectations
Core structure of MAMTFCore structure of MAMTF
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Low sacrifice ratio (but may vary over time, according to progreLow sacrifice ratio (but may vary over time, according to progressssof disinflation)of disinflation)
Expectations channel quite significant for monetary policy direcExpectations channel quite significant for monetary policy directtinfluence on inflationinfluence on inflation
Exchange rate channel also important, especially for speed ofExchange rate channel also important, especially for speed ofdisinflation (two channels: direct, via passdisinflation (two channels: direct, via pass--through; indirect,through; indirect,
through influences on real sector and asset portfolios)through influences on real sector and asset portfolios)
Aggregate activity (output gap) channel relatively less effectivAggregate activity (output gap) channel relatively less effective ate atpresent, but crucial for ensuring continuity of disinflation propresent, but crucial for ensuring continuity of disinflation processcess
Monetary policy impulses intermediated by relatively sluggish baMonetary policy impulses intermediated by relatively sluggish banknkdeposit and lending ratesdeposit and lending rates
Specifics of the MAMTF transmission mechanismSpecifics of the MAMTF transmission mechanism
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Increasing role of policy rate in influencing inflationIncreasing role of policy rate in influencing inflation
-.008
-.004
.000
.004
.008
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Re sp ons e to a rea l in teres t ra te gap shoc k
Resp onse o f core in f la tion to mon etary po l icy indu ced sh ocks
Sam p le : June 1997 - December 2000
Months
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
5 10 15 20
Output gap
Real interest rate gap
Real exchange rate gap
Core inflation
Variance decomposition of core inflation
Sample: June 1997 - December 2000
Contributions of shocks
(% of total varianc e)
Months
-.006
-.005
-.004
-.003
-.002
-.001
.000
.001
.002
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Re sp o nse t o a r ea l i nt e res t r a t e gap sho ck
R e s p o n s e o f c o r e i nf l at i o n t o m o n et a r y p o l ic y i n d u c e d s h o c k s
S a m p l e : S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 0 - N o v e m b e r 2 0 0 4
Months
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
5 10 15 20
Output gap
Real interest rate gap
Real exchange rate gap
Core inflation
Variance decomposition of core inflation
Sample: September 2000 - November 2004
Months
Contribu tion of shoc ks
(% of total variance)
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Role of nearRole of near--term forecastingterm forecasting Covers short end of forecast horizonCovers short end of forecast horizon
Shapes the initial conditions of the forecastShapes the initial conditions of the forecast
(In the future) Serves as cross(In the future) Serves as cross--check for final forecastcheck for final forecast
Role of expert judgmentRole of expert judgment Flexibility of MAMTF allows direct incorporation of expert inputFlexibility of MAMTF allows direct incorporation of expert input (incl.(incl.
surveysurvey--based information)based information) Forecasts of effects of anticipated exogenous events (e.g. capitForecasts of effects of anticipated exogenous events (e.g. capital accountal accountliberalization)liberalization)
Forecasts of variables not explicitly modeled (e.g. fiscal stimuForecasts of variables not explicitly modeled (e.g. fiscal stimulus)lus)
Model forecasts can beModel forecasts can betunedtunedif unrealisticif unrealistic
Role of mediumRole of medium--term modelterm model Integrates all information in a consistent wayIntegrates all information in a consistent way
Generates an interest rate path which can serve as policy guidelGenerates an interest rate path which can serve as policy guidelineine
Can be used to generate risk scenarios, analyze consistency of aCan be used to generate risk scenarios, analyze consistency of alternativelternativescenariosscenarios
2.3.3 The forecasting process2.3.3 The forecasting process
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Flow of information in the forecasting process atFlow of information in the forecasting process at
the National Bank of Romaniathe National Bank of Romania
Near-term modelsand expert forecast
NTF Inflation, GDP, EUR/ROL etc.
Assessment of initial conditions
and medium-term trends
Exogenous variables forecasts
Trends & Gaps
Medium-term(core)model
Expert judgment
Finalmedium-term
forecast
Anticipatedshocks, fiscal
impulse, etc.
Near-term forecast
Tuning
Uncertainty
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Restructuring of the existing inflation reportRestructuring of the existing inflation report
Policy made more transparentPolicy made more transparent
Supporting external communicationSupporting external communication
2.4 Communication issues2.4 Communication issues
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Plays the central role in the communication strategy under ITPlays the central role in the communication strategy under IT
To be published quarterly, reflecting the forecasting cycle; firTo be published quarterly, reflecting the forecasting cycle; firststquarterly report (2005Q1) expected July, also serving to emphasiquarterly report (2005Q1) expected July, also serving to emphasizezemultimulti--period preoccupation for attaining the inflation targetsperiod preoccupation for attaining the inflation targets
Based on the same information set used in the forecasting procesBased on the same information set used in the forecasting processs
Compared to existing 6Compared to existing 6--month Inflation Reports: (i) more timelymonth Inflation Reports: (i) more timelypublishing; (ii) transparent inclusion of NBR inflation forecastpublishing; (ii) transparent inclusion of NBR inflation forecast, policy, policydecision, detailed risk assessment; (iii) balance favors forwarddecision, detailed risk assessment; (iii) balance favors forward--lookinglookinganalysis over backwardanalysis over backward--looking reporting; (iv) will replace a substantiallooking reporting; (iv) will replace a substantialportion of analysis currently included in NBR Annual Reports, soportion of analysis currently included in NBR Annual Reports, somemestreamlining of monthly bulletins also a resultstreamlining of monthly bulletins also a result
Unpublished draft inflation reports for the two dryUnpublished draft inflation reports for the two dry--run forecastingrun forecasting
rounds, for purposes of internal analysisrounds, for purposes of internal analysis
2.4.1 The New Inflation Report2.4.1 The New Inflation Report
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
Increased frequency and quality of communication withIncreased frequency and quality of communication with
public on policy issuespublic on policy issues
Prior announcement of calendar for policyPrior announcement of calendar for policy--related Boardrelated Boardmeetingsmeetings
Press releases on contents of betweenPress releases on contents of between--forecast meetingsforecast meetingsand on the monetary policy decisionsand on the monetary policy decisions
Prior announcement of confirmation of fullyPrior announcement of confirmation of fully--fledgedfledgedimplementation of IT regime, with details on bandwidth,implementation of IT regime, with details on bandwidth,formalized exceptions, etc.formalized exceptions, etc.
2.4.2 Increased Policy Transparency2.4.2 Increased Policy Transparency
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
The NBR website will be reThe NBR website will be re--designed to allow easier access todesigned to allow easier access topolicy related information and to include backgroundpolicy related information and to include background
information on inflation targetinginformation on inflation targeting
Dedicated briefings on benefits of IT and the related policyDedicated briefings on benefits of IT and the related policyprocess to be organizedprocess to be organized
Brochure series targeted for broader audienceBrochure series targeted for broader audience
Background papers to be publishedBackground papers to be published
Conferences, interviews, public speechesConferences, interviews, public speeches
2.4.3 Supporting external communication2.4.3 Supporting external communication
P i d P i i f h I dP ti d P i it f th I t d i f I fl i T i i R iti f I fl ti T ti i R i
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Recursive log NBR steriliz. flow estimates
2 S.E.
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Recursive log MoF debt is suance
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
IIN T E R L F L U X L V O L M O F
V a ri a n c e D e c o m p o s it i o n o f I I N T E R
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3.2 International Comparisons
Credit to Non-Government*
61.5
23.0
49.3
37.6
16.4
58.2
8.3
23.917.5
71.7
94.4
31.7
113.8112.0
76.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
CZ(199
7)
PL(199
8)
HU
(200
1)
CL(199
0)
BR
(199
9)
MX(199
9)
IS(199
2)
TH
(200
0)
NZ(199
0)
UK(199
2)
SE(199
3)
ZA(200
0)
AL(2004
)**
UA(2004)**
RO(2004)***
percent of GDP
Source: EUROSTAT, NBR, NIS, IMF
*) at the time of shifting to inflation targeting
**) intends to adopt inflation targeting
***) to shift to inflation targeting in 2005
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Bank Assets*
56.0
69.1
53.9
127.2
104.4
229.0
92.5
49.8 39.4
138.0
38.3
136.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
CZ(1997)
PL(1998)
HU
(2001)
BR
(1999)
IS(1992)
TH
(2000)
NZ(1990)
UK(1992)
ZA(2000)
AL(2004
)**
UA(2004
)**
RO(2004)
***
percent of GDP
Source: Websites of central banks and national statistics institutions
*) at the time of shifting to inflation targeting
**) intends to adopt inflation targeting
***) to shift to inflation targeting in 2005
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Stock Market Capitalisation*
24.1 20.1
45.0 42.9 45.0
24.4 20.0
86.5
160.0
0.9
17.6
52.6
32.1
12.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
CZ(1997)
PL(1998)
HU
(2001)
CL(1990)
BR
(1999)
MX(1999)
IS(1992)
TH
(2000)
NZ(1990)
UK(1992)
SE(1993)
ZA(2000)
UA(2004
)**
RO(2004)***
percent of GDP
Source: EUROSTAT, NIS, BSE, RASDAQ
*) at the time of shifting to inflation targeting
**) intends to adopt inflation targeting
***) to shift to inflation targeting in 2005
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Insurance Premia*
2.0 1.72.5
6.1
1.3
16.9
2.82.92.9 3.5****
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
CZ(199
7)
PL(199
8)
HU
(200
1)
BR
(199
9)
MX(199
9)
TH
(200
0)
SE(199
3)
ZA(200
0)
UA(2004)**
RO(2004)***
percent of GDP
Source: EUROSTAT, Swiss Re, ISC, NIS ****) 2003
*) at the time of shifting to inflation targeting
**) intends to adopt inflation targeting
***) to shift to inflation targeting in 2005
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Fiscal Surplus/Deficit*
-2.2
-4.4
-9.9
-2.2
-4.4
-6.4
-1.8
-5.4
-11.4
-9.2
-1.1
-3.0
-1.1
0.7
-1.3
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
CZ(199
7)
PL(199
8)
HU
(200
1)
CL(199
0)
BR
(199
9)
MX(199
9)
IS(199
2)
TH
(200
0)
NZ(199
0)
UK(199
2)
SE(199
3)
ZA(200
0)
AL(2004
)**
UA(2004
)**
RO(2004)***
percent of GDP
Source: EIU, MPF, NIS
*) at the time of shifting to inflation targeting
**) intends to adopt inflation targeting
***) to shift to inflation targeting in 2005
Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA
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Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects
Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005
4.4. Steps AheadSteps Ahead Additional scope in data reporting, surveys: integratingAdditional scope in data reporting, surveys: integrating
reliable information & expectations regarding housing &reliable information & expectations regarding housing &financial assetsfinancial assets
Improvements in nearImprovements in near--term forecasting and integrationterm forecasting and integrationinto decisioninto decision--making: ARMAX, expert judgmentmaking: ARMAX, expert judgment
Improvements in MAMTF: (i) refining calibration; (ii)Improvements in MAMTF: (i) refining calibration; (ii)adding extraadding extrawrinkleswrinkles; (iii) interaction with additional; (iii) interaction with additionalblocks (satellite subblocks (satellite sub--models): external accounts, fiscal;models): external accounts, fiscal;(iv) extending range to 6 and 8 quarters ahead(iv) extending range to 6 and 8 quarters ahead
Transparency & communication: improvements inTransparency & communication: improvements incontent of QIR; briefing sessions on regular basis;content of QIR; briefing sessions on regular basis;possible publication of minutes/voting recordspossible publication of minutes/voting records