e 20050330 Vice

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    1/31

    Preparations and PrerequisitesPreparations and Prerequisitesfor thefor the

    Introduction of InflationIntroduction of InflationTargeting in RomaniaTargeting in Romania

    Presentation by Deputy Governor Cristian PopaPresentation by Deputy Governor Cristian Popa

    National Bank of RomaniaNational Bank of Romania

    NBRNBR--BoEBoE Conference onConference on Inflation Targeting: International Experience andInflation Targeting: International Experience andRomaniaRomanias Prospectss Prospects

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    2/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    OutlineOutline1.1. Recap: Context and Initial SpecificationsRecap: Context and Initial Specifications

    2.2. Internal PreparationsInternal Preparations2.1 Organizational issues2.1 Organizational issues

    2.2 The Policy2.2 The Policy--Making ProcessMaking Process

    2.3 Forecasting2.3 Forecasting

    2.4 Communication issues2.4 Communication issues

    3.3. Prerequisites for Inflation TargetingPrerequisites for Inflation Targeting

    3.1 Absence of Fiscal Dominance3.1 Absence of Fiscal Dominance

    3.2 International Comparisons3.2 International Comparisons

    4.4. Steps AheadSteps Ahead

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    3/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    1.1. Recap:Recap: Context and InitialContext and Initial

    SpecificationsSpecifications

    Inflation targeting mentioned in RomaniaInflation targeting mentioned in Romanias Mediums Medium--Term StrategyTerm Strategyfor Economic Development (2000), confirmed infor Economic Development (2000), confirmed in PEPsPEPs (2002 and(2002 andbeyond)beyond)

    Initial specifications:Initial specifications: (i) target specified in terms of CPI;(i) target specified in terms of CPI; (ii) mid(ii) mid--point with band (some tolerance for undershooting target);point with band (some tolerance for undershooting target); (iii) annual targets w. multi(iii) annual targets w. multi--period perspective (initially two years);period perspective (initially two years);

    (iv) flexible interpretation of inflation targeting (esp. coexis(iv) flexible interpretation of inflation targeting (esp. coexistence w.tence w.managed float regime);managed float regime);

    (v) existence of few(v) existence of few ex anteex antedefineddefinedexceptionsexceptionsconditional toconditional toattaining the target;attaining the target;

    (vi) joint announcement of target with government(vi) joint announcement of target with government

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    4/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    2.1 Organizational Issues2.1 Organizational Issues Task force set up to implement the IT framework, led byTask force set up to implement the IT framework, led by

    coordinating DGcoordinating DG

    Monetary Policy DepartmentMonetary Policy Department Research and Publications DepartmentResearch and Publications Department

    Macroeconomic Modeling and Forecasting DepartmentMacroeconomic Modeling and Forecasting Department

    Development of a detailed quarterly macroeconomic forecastingDevelopment of a detailed quarterly macroeconomic forecastingframeworkframework

    Centralized databaseCentralized database

    Data monitoring & reportingData monitoring & reporting

    Expectations surveyExpectations survey

    NearNear--term forecasting of key variablesterm forecasting of key variables

    MediumMedium--term forecasting model, consistent with achievingterm forecasting model, consistent with achieving

    multimulti--period inflation targetsperiod inflation targets

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    5/31Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Conference onConference onInflation TargetingInflation Targeting

    Preparing the Introduction of Inflation TargetingPreparing the Introduction of Inflation Targeting

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    QUARTERLY MODEL PROJECTIONS

    inflation and relevant variables

    Data managementData management

    DETAILED MACROECONOMIC DATA

    raw historical data for domestic and

    external variables updated on a regular

    basis

    near-term forecasts for external

    variables

    Central NBR database

    Cut-offdate

    NEAR-TERM FORECASTS (NTF)

    domestic and external variables

    exogenous for the core model

    Satellite models

    NTFs for domestic exogenous

    variables (RPD, MPD and MMFD)

    External sources

    Consensus Forecasts

    CURRENT POSITION OF THE

    ECONOMY (initial conditions for the

    core model)

    equilibrium values for relevant

    variables and their medium term

    profile

    DATA FOR THE CORE MODEL

    Satellite models (MMFD)

    Expert judgment

    The core model

    (MAMTF)

    3rd party forecasts (surveys)

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    6/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    2.2 The Policy2.2 The Policy--Making ProcessMaking ProcessRole of the NBR BoardRole of the NBR Board Exceptional initial involvement in model specification, startingExceptional initial involvement in model specification, starting

    conditions (in order to foster ownership/understanding:conditions (in order to foster ownership/understanding:successfulsuccessfuldialogue with the modeldialogue with the model))

    Final decisionFinal decision--making bodymaking body

    Focuses on how to best employ forecasts in policy makingFocuses on how to best employ forecasts in policy making

    In practical terms:In practical terms:

    identifies alternative scenarios to consider or special issues tidentifies alternative scenarios to consider or special issues to beo beexamined from the viewpoint of strategy (examined from the viewpoint of strategy (big decisionsbig decisions); these); theseare then run through model again for consistencyare then run through model again for consistency

    judges how the path for the policy interest rate should bejudges how the path for the policy interest rate should be

    adjusted to account for uncertainties and risksadjusted to account for uncertainties and risks

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    7/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Role of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)Role of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

    Institutionalized analytical forum at staff/executiveInstitutionalized analytical forum at staff/executivemanagement levelmanagement level

    Critical focus on ensuring that all relevant information isCritical focus on ensuring that all relevant information isbrought to bear on the forecastsbrought to bear on the forecasts

    In practical terms:In practical terms:

    responsible for reviewing assumptions on initial conditionsresponsible for reviewing assumptions on initial conditionsfor the forecasts, including the outlook for exogenousfor the forecasts, including the outlook for exogenous

    variablesvariables reviewing the projections and formulating policyreviewing the projections and formulating policy

    recommendations for the Board, including analyses of theirrecommendations for the Board, including analyses of theirtechnical implicationstechnical implications

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    8/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Quarterly Forecasting & Decision ScheduleQuarterly Forecasting & Decision Schedule

    Final projection meetingFinal projection meetingTask ForceTask Force meetingmeetingTT--1818

    Start of Forecasting CycleStart of Forecasting Cycle

    Discussion & Eventual Adoption ofDiscussion & Eventual Adoption ofInflationInflationReportReport

    BoardBoard meetingmeetingT+6T+6

    Discussion of forecasting cycle andDiscussion of forecasting cycle andInflationInflation

    ReportReportMPCMPC meetingmeetingT+3T+3

    Forecasts andForecasts andInflation ReportInflation Reportsent tosent to

    MPCMPCInflation ReportInflation ReportTT

    Monetary Policy DecisionMonetary Policy DecisionBoardBoard meetingmeetingTT--1010

    Forecasts and risk scenariosForecasts and risk scenariosMPCMPC monthly meetingmonthly meetingTT--1515

    Initial conditions, equilibrium conditions,Initial conditions, equilibrium conditions,

    exogenous variables and NTFexogenous variables and NTF

    MPCMPC meetingmeetingTT--2323

    Initial conditions, equilibrium conditions andInitial conditions, equilibrium conditions and

    exogenous variablesexogenous variablesTask ForceTask Force meetingmeetingTT--2727

    NearNear--Term Forecasts (NTF)Term Forecasts (NTF)Task ForceTask Force meetingmeetingTT--3434

    Policy review and decisionPolicy review and decisionBoardBoard regular monthly meetingregular monthly meeting

    Policy review and recommendationPolicy review and recommendationMPCMPC regular monthly meetingregular monthly meeting

    Other projection detailsOther projection detailsTask ForceTask Force Second issues meetingSecond issues meetingTT--5151

    Model meetingModel meetingTask ForceTask Force First issues meetingFirst issues meetingTT--5757DetailsDetailsEventEventTimeTime

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    9/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Based on formalized models and expert judgmentBased on formalized models and expert judgment

    Two types of modeling approaches:Two types of modeling approaches:

    Estimation approach at the shortEstimation approach at the short--run horizonrun horizon

    Calibration approach at the mediumCalibration approach at the medium--term horizonterm horizon

    Final forecast integrates information from shortFinal forecast integrates information from short--term models,term models,mediummedium--term model and expert judgmentterm model and expert judgment

    2.3 Forecasting2.3 Forecasting

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    10/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    2.3.1 Near2.3.1 Near--Term ForecastingTerm ForecastingFrameworkFramework TwoTwo--quarter horizon at presentquarter horizon at present

    A set of methods (one model approach is risky)A set of methods (one model approach is risky)

    Economic theory as a basis of analysis, but applied toEconomic theory as a basis of analysis, but applied to

    statistical data (estimation vs. calibration)statistical data (estimation vs. calibration)

    Tool for simulating the impact of changes in exogenousTool for simulating the impact of changes in exogenous

    variablesvariables

    Used for analysis and for establishing the initial conditions foUsed for analysis and for establishing the initial conditions forrthe QFMthe QFM

    O O O

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    11/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    NearNear--term Inflation Forecastingterm Inflation Forecasting

    Two methods:Two methods:

    Expert judgement forecast for CPI componentsExpert judgement forecast for CPI components

    ARMAX model for the main CPI inflation components (ARMAX model for the main CPI inflation components (yoyyoy data,data,monthly frequency)monthly frequency)

    FoodFood

    NonNon--food excluding regulated and fuel pricesfood excluding regulated and fuel prices Services excluding regulated pricesServices excluding regulated prices

    Exogenous variables: EUR/ROL and EUR/USD exchange rates,Exogenous variables: EUR/ROL and EUR/USD exchange rates,

    net wagesnet wages,, regulated prices, fuel pricesregulated prices, fuel prices

    The forecast presented to the MPC = weighted average of the resuThe forecast presented to the MPC = weighted average of the resultsltsprovided by the two methods (with 0.65 weight given to the ARMAXprovided by the two methods (with 0.65 weight given to the ARMAX

    model)model)

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    12/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    NearNear--term GDP Forecastingterm GDP Forecasting

    Small semiSmall semi--structural model (structural model (qoqqoq))

    Behavioural equations for household consumption, grossBehavioural equations for household consumption, grossfixed capital formation, exports, imports and core inflationfixed capital formation, exports, imports and core inflation

    Exogenous variables:Exogenous variables:

    EUR/ROL and EUR/USD exchange rates, publicEUR/ROL and EUR/USD exchange rates, public

    consumption, net wagesconsumption, net wages,, regulated prices, fuel prices, 3Mregulated prices, fuel prices, 3MEuriborEuribor, euro area GDP, HICP, euro area GDP, HICP

    OLS andOLS and 22SLS estimation with error correction mechanismSLS estimation with error correction mechanism

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    13/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    2.3.2 Medium2.3.2 Medium--Term ForecastingTerm Forecasting

    HistoryHistory

    Assembling the Model for Analysis and MediumAssembling the Model for Analysis and Medium--Term ForecastingTerm Forecasting(MAMTF) started in mid(MAMTF) started in mid--20042004

    Significant progress achieved, with technical assistance supportSignificant progress achieved, with technical assistance support fromfromtwo IMF missions and bilateral exchanges/expert visits with thetwo IMF missions and bilateral exchanges/expert visits with the CzechCzechNational Bank (MAMTF conceived in similar fashion to Czech QPM)National Bank (MAMTF conceived in similar fashion to Czech QPM)

    Two forecasting dry runs to test MAMTF adequacy and the functionTwo forecasting dry runs to test MAMTF adequacy and the functionalalintegration of shortintegration of short--term and expert information; currently in secondterm and expert information; currently in seconddry rundry run

    FirstFirst--pass calibration of MAMTF based on priors discussed by thepass calibration of MAMTF based on priors discussed by theBankBanks Boards Board

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    14/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Model open to continuous improvement, while maintainingModel open to continuous improvement, while maintaining

    the core structurethe core structure

    Small semiSmall semi--structural calibrated model with a Newstructural calibrated model with a New--KeynesianKeynesiancore (ST and MT noncore (ST and MT non--neutrality)neutrality)

    Economy assumed to converge to wellEconomy assumed to converge to well--defined and stabledefined and stablelonglong--run equilibriumrun equilibrium

    Deviations from trendsDeviations from trends thethegapsgaps-- reflect cyclical behaviorreflect cyclical behaviorof the economy, while trends are analogous to steadyof the economy, while trends are analogous to steady--statestate

    values (primarily assessed on inflation neutrality)values (primarily assessed on inflation neutrality)

    General characteristics of MAMTFGeneral characteristics of MAMTF

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    15/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Core inflation determined by its structural persistence, agentsCore inflation determined by its structural persistence, agents expectations,expectations,output gap, and import price inflationoutput gap, and import price inflation

    Output gap orOutput gap orexcess demandexcess demandfactor determined by its own persistence and realfactor determined by its own persistence and realmonetary conditions, incl.monetary conditions, incl. gapsgapsof real (bank) interest rates and real exchangeof real (bank) interest rates and real exchange

    raterate

    Exchange rate determined according to uncovered interest parityExchange rate determined according to uncovered interest parity

    relationshiprelationship

    including a risk premiumincluding a risk premium

    Monetary policy behavior (as implied by flexible inflation targeMonetary policy behavior (as implied by flexible inflation targeting) described by ating) described by aforwardforward--looking policy interest rate rule that reacts to deviations of ilooking policy interest rate rule that reacts to deviations of inflation fromnflation from

    target, the output gap and excessive interest rate volatilitytarget, the output gap and excessive interest rate volatility

    AgentsAgents expectations modeled as hybrids of backwardexpectations modeled as hybrids of backward--looking (inertial) andlooking (inertial) andforwardforward--looking (looking (modelmodel--consistentconsistent) expectations) expectations

    Core structure of MAMTFCore structure of MAMTF

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    16/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Low sacrifice ratio (but may vary over time, according to progreLow sacrifice ratio (but may vary over time, according to progressssof disinflation)of disinflation)

    Expectations channel quite significant for monetary policy direcExpectations channel quite significant for monetary policy directtinfluence on inflationinfluence on inflation

    Exchange rate channel also important, especially for speed ofExchange rate channel also important, especially for speed ofdisinflation (two channels: direct, via passdisinflation (two channels: direct, via pass--through; indirect,through; indirect,

    through influences on real sector and asset portfolios)through influences on real sector and asset portfolios)

    Aggregate activity (output gap) channel relatively less effectivAggregate activity (output gap) channel relatively less effective ate atpresent, but crucial for ensuring continuity of disinflation propresent, but crucial for ensuring continuity of disinflation processcess

    Monetary policy impulses intermediated by relatively sluggish baMonetary policy impulses intermediated by relatively sluggish banknkdeposit and lending ratesdeposit and lending rates

    Specifics of the MAMTF transmission mechanismSpecifics of the MAMTF transmission mechanism

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    17/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Increasing role of policy rate in influencing inflationIncreasing role of policy rate in influencing inflation

    -.008

    -.004

    .000

    .004

    .008

    2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

    Re sp ons e to a rea l in teres t ra te gap shoc k

    Resp onse o f core in f la tion to mon etary po l icy indu ced sh ocks

    Sam p le : June 1997 - December 2000

    Months

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    5 10 15 20

    Output gap

    Real interest rate gap

    Real exchange rate gap

    Core inflation

    Variance decomposition of core inflation

    Sample: June 1997 - December 2000

    Contributions of shocks

    (% of total varianc e)

    Months

    -.006

    -.005

    -.004

    -.003

    -.002

    -.001

    .000

    .001

    .002

    2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

    Re sp o nse t o a r ea l i nt e res t r a t e gap sho ck

    R e s p o n s e o f c o r e i nf l at i o n t o m o n et a r y p o l ic y i n d u c e d s h o c k s

    S a m p l e : S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 0 - N o v e m b e r 2 0 0 4

    Months

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    5 10 15 20

    Output gap

    Real interest rate gap

    Real exchange rate gap

    Core inflation

    Variance decomposition of core inflation

    Sample: September 2000 - November 2004

    Months

    Contribu tion of shoc ks

    (% of total variance)

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    18/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Role of nearRole of near--term forecastingterm forecasting Covers short end of forecast horizonCovers short end of forecast horizon

    Shapes the initial conditions of the forecastShapes the initial conditions of the forecast

    (In the future) Serves as cross(In the future) Serves as cross--check for final forecastcheck for final forecast

    Role of expert judgmentRole of expert judgment Flexibility of MAMTF allows direct incorporation of expert inputFlexibility of MAMTF allows direct incorporation of expert input (incl.(incl.

    surveysurvey--based information)based information) Forecasts of effects of anticipated exogenous events (e.g. capitForecasts of effects of anticipated exogenous events (e.g. capital accountal accountliberalization)liberalization)

    Forecasts of variables not explicitly modeled (e.g. fiscal stimuForecasts of variables not explicitly modeled (e.g. fiscal stimulus)lus)

    Model forecasts can beModel forecasts can betunedtunedif unrealisticif unrealistic

    Role of mediumRole of medium--term modelterm model Integrates all information in a consistent wayIntegrates all information in a consistent way

    Generates an interest rate path which can serve as policy guidelGenerates an interest rate path which can serve as policy guidelineine

    Can be used to generate risk scenarios, analyze consistency of aCan be used to generate risk scenarios, analyze consistency of alternativelternativescenariosscenarios

    2.3.3 The forecasting process2.3.3 The forecasting process

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    19/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Flow of information in the forecasting process atFlow of information in the forecasting process at

    the National Bank of Romaniathe National Bank of Romania

    Near-term modelsand expert forecast

    NTF Inflation, GDP, EUR/ROL etc.

    Assessment of initial conditions

    and medium-term trends

    Exogenous variables forecasts

    Trends & Gaps

    Medium-term(core)model

    Expert judgment

    Finalmedium-term

    forecast

    Anticipatedshocks, fiscal

    impulse, etc.

    Near-term forecast

    Tuning

    Uncertainty

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    20/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Restructuring of the existing inflation reportRestructuring of the existing inflation report

    Policy made more transparentPolicy made more transparent

    Supporting external communicationSupporting external communication

    2.4 Communication issues2.4 Communication issues

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    21/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Plays the central role in the communication strategy under ITPlays the central role in the communication strategy under IT

    To be published quarterly, reflecting the forecasting cycle; firTo be published quarterly, reflecting the forecasting cycle; firststquarterly report (2005Q1) expected July, also serving to emphasiquarterly report (2005Q1) expected July, also serving to emphasizezemultimulti--period preoccupation for attaining the inflation targetsperiod preoccupation for attaining the inflation targets

    Based on the same information set used in the forecasting procesBased on the same information set used in the forecasting processs

    Compared to existing 6Compared to existing 6--month Inflation Reports: (i) more timelymonth Inflation Reports: (i) more timelypublishing; (ii) transparent inclusion of NBR inflation forecastpublishing; (ii) transparent inclusion of NBR inflation forecast, policy, policydecision, detailed risk assessment; (iii) balance favors forwarddecision, detailed risk assessment; (iii) balance favors forward--lookinglookinganalysis over backwardanalysis over backward--looking reporting; (iv) will replace a substantiallooking reporting; (iv) will replace a substantialportion of analysis currently included in NBR Annual Reports, soportion of analysis currently included in NBR Annual Reports, somemestreamlining of monthly bulletins also a resultstreamlining of monthly bulletins also a result

    Unpublished draft inflation reports for the two dryUnpublished draft inflation reports for the two dry--run forecastingrun forecasting

    rounds, for purposes of internal analysisrounds, for purposes of internal analysis

    2.4.1 The New Inflation Report2.4.1 The New Inflation Report

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    22/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    Increased frequency and quality of communication withIncreased frequency and quality of communication with

    public on policy issuespublic on policy issues

    Prior announcement of calendar for policyPrior announcement of calendar for policy--related Boardrelated Boardmeetingsmeetings

    Press releases on contents of betweenPress releases on contents of between--forecast meetingsforecast meetingsand on the monetary policy decisionsand on the monetary policy decisions

    Prior announcement of confirmation of fullyPrior announcement of confirmation of fully--fledgedfledgedimplementation of IT regime, with details on bandwidth,implementation of IT regime, with details on bandwidth,formalized exceptions, etc.formalized exceptions, etc.

    2.4.2 Increased Policy Transparency2.4.2 Increased Policy Transparency

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    23/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    The NBR website will be reThe NBR website will be re--designed to allow easier access todesigned to allow easier access topolicy related information and to include backgroundpolicy related information and to include background

    information on inflation targetinginformation on inflation targeting

    Dedicated briefings on benefits of IT and the related policyDedicated briefings on benefits of IT and the related policyprocess to be organizedprocess to be organized

    Brochure series targeted for broader audienceBrochure series targeted for broader audience

    Background papers to be publishedBackground papers to be published

    Conferences, interviews, public speechesConferences, interviews, public speeches

    2.4.3 Supporting external communication2.4.3 Supporting external communication

    P i d P i i f h I dP ti d P i it f th I t d i f I fl i T i i R iti f I fl ti T ti i R i

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    24/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    -12

    -8

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

    Recursive log NBR steriliz. flow estimates

    2 S.E.

    -16

    -12

    -8

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

    Recursive log MoF debt is suance

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    25/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    IIN T E R L F L U X L V O L M O F

    V a ri a n c e D e c o m p o s it i o n o f I I N T E R

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    26/31

    3.2 International Comparisons

    Credit to Non-Government*

    61.5

    23.0

    49.3

    37.6

    16.4

    58.2

    8.3

    23.917.5

    71.7

    94.4

    31.7

    113.8112.0

    76.0

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    CZ(199

    7)

    PL(199

    8)

    HU

    (200

    1)

    CL(199

    0)

    BR

    (199

    9)

    MX(199

    9)

    IS(199

    2)

    TH

    (200

    0)

    NZ(199

    0)

    UK(199

    2)

    SE(199

    3)

    ZA(200

    0)

    AL(2004

    )**

    UA(2004)**

    RO(2004)***

    percent of GDP

    Source: EUROSTAT, NBR, NIS, IMF

    *) at the time of shifting to inflation targeting

    **) intends to adopt inflation targeting

    ***) to shift to inflation targeting in 2005

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    27/31

    Bank Assets*

    56.0

    69.1

    53.9

    127.2

    104.4

    229.0

    92.5

    49.8 39.4

    138.0

    38.3

    136.0

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    CZ(1997)

    PL(1998)

    HU

    (2001)

    BR

    (1999)

    IS(1992)

    TH

    (2000)

    NZ(1990)

    UK(1992)

    ZA(2000)

    AL(2004

    )**

    UA(2004

    )**

    RO(2004)

    ***

    percent of GDP

    Source: Websites of central banks and national statistics institutions

    *) at the time of shifting to inflation targeting

    **) intends to adopt inflation targeting

    ***) to shift to inflation targeting in 2005

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    28/31

    Stock Market Capitalisation*

    24.1 20.1

    45.0 42.9 45.0

    24.4 20.0

    86.5

    160.0

    0.9

    17.6

    52.6

    32.1

    12.9

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    CZ(1997)

    PL(1998)

    HU

    (2001)

    CL(1990)

    BR

    (1999)

    MX(1999)

    IS(1992)

    TH

    (2000)

    NZ(1990)

    UK(1992)

    SE(1993)

    ZA(2000)

    UA(2004

    )**

    RO(2004)***

    percent of GDP

    Source: EUROSTAT, NIS, BSE, RASDAQ

    *) at the time of shifting to inflation targeting

    **) intends to adopt inflation targeting

    ***) to shift to inflation targeting in 2005

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    29/31

    Insurance Premia*

    2.0 1.72.5

    6.1

    1.3

    16.9

    2.82.92.9 3.5****

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    CZ(199

    7)

    PL(199

    8)

    HU

    (200

    1)

    BR

    (199

    9)

    MX(199

    9)

    TH

    (200

    0)

    SE(199

    3)

    ZA(200

    0)

    UA(2004)**

    RO(2004)***

    percent of GDP

    Source: EUROSTAT, Swiss Re, ISC, NIS ****) 2003

    *) at the time of shifting to inflation targeting

    **) intends to adopt inflation targeting

    ***) to shift to inflation targeting in 2005

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    30/31

    Fiscal Surplus/Deficit*

    -2.2

    -4.4

    -9.9

    -2.2

    -4.4

    -6.4

    -1.8

    -5.4

    -11.4

    -9.2

    -1.1

    -3.0

    -1.1

    0.7

    -1.3

    14

    12

    10

    8

    6

    4

    2

    0

    2

    CZ(199

    7)

    PL(199

    8)

    HU

    (200

    1)

    CL(199

    0)

    BR

    (199

    9)

    MX(199

    9)

    IS(199

    2)

    TH

    (200

    0)

    NZ(199

    0)

    UK(199

    2)

    SE(199

    3)

    ZA(200

    0)

    AL(2004

    )**

    UA(2004

    )**

    RO(2004)***

    percent of GDP

    Source: EIU, MPF, NIS

    *) at the time of shifting to inflation targeting

    **) intends to adopt inflation targeting

    ***) to shift to inflation targeting in 2005

    Preparations and Prerequisites for the IntrodPreparations and Prerequisites for the Introduction of Inflation Targeting in Romaniauction of Inflation Targeting in Romania

    NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

  • 7/30/2019 e 20050330 Vice

    31/31

    Inflation Targeting: International Experience and RomaniaInflation Targeting: International Experience and Romanias Prospectss Prospects

    Bucharest, 30 March 2005Bucharest, 30 March 2005

    4.4. Steps AheadSteps Ahead Additional scope in data reporting, surveys: integratingAdditional scope in data reporting, surveys: integrating

    reliable information & expectations regarding housing &reliable information & expectations regarding housing &financial assetsfinancial assets

    Improvements in nearImprovements in near--term forecasting and integrationterm forecasting and integrationinto decisioninto decision--making: ARMAX, expert judgmentmaking: ARMAX, expert judgment

    Improvements in MAMTF: (i) refining calibration; (ii)Improvements in MAMTF: (i) refining calibration; (ii)adding extraadding extrawrinkleswrinkles; (iii) interaction with additional; (iii) interaction with additionalblocks (satellite subblocks (satellite sub--models): external accounts, fiscal;models): external accounts, fiscal;(iv) extending range to 6 and 8 quarters ahead(iv) extending range to 6 and 8 quarters ahead

    Transparency & communication: improvements inTransparency & communication: improvements incontent of QIR; briefing sessions on regular basis;content of QIR; briefing sessions on regular basis;possible publication of minutes/voting recordspossible publication of minutes/voting records