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Dynamics of Sustained Use and Abandonment of Clean Energy Systems in Rural India*
January 24, 2015
1. Praveen Kumar, PhD Student and McDonnell International Scholar, Washington University in St. Louis, USA; [email protected] 2. Nishesh Chalise, PhD Student, Washington University in St. Louis, USA; [email protected] 3. Gautam N. Yadama, Professor and Assistant Vice Chancellor for International Affairs-‐India, Washington University in St. Louis, USA; [email protected] *Research Funding by: Washington University’s Institute for Clinical and Translational Science (ICTS), afAiliate of national Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) initiative (National Institutes of Health).
• To understand the dynamics of SUSTAINED USE/ABANDONMENT of Clean Energy Technologies (Bio Gas/Improved Cookstoves) in POOR COMMUNITIES in India.
• To provide insights for application of System Dynamics Modeling for NIH funded
R21 Randomized Control Trial project in India
PROJECT OBJECTIVE
• SUSTAINED USE or ABANDONMENT of Clean Energy Technologies (Bio Gas/ Improved Cookstoves) was the outcome for selection of case and control groups.
CASE-‐CONTROL STUDY DESIGN
Project Background
• Helps to understand Social-‐Ecological-‐Technological interaction that drive sustained use or abandonment of Clean Energy Technologies (bio gas digesters and
improved cook stoves).
COMMUNITY BASED SD MODELING
Communities with biogas digesters and improved cook stoves in Rural Rajasthan, India
Map showing communities with biogas plants: Gatuna Ka Jhopda and Jhalim ka Jhopda
Map showing communities with Improved Cookstoves: Nichli Karech and Uppli Karech
Literature review, Data Analysis, Conceptual Model
Building
1
Undertake Field Visits, Community Based Group Model Building
Feedback from the communities on Winal model
2
4
3
• Review of key secondary literature. • Initial Development of Reference Mode and
• Development of conceptual System Dynamics Model 1
2 • Field Visits and interactions with community members
• Data collection through participatory and consultative procedure during the Wield visits.
• Discussion on Reference Modes and conceptual models focusing on social-‐ecological-‐technological interaction.
• Group Model Building
3 • Finalization of Reference Mode and System Dynamics Conceptual Model
• Feedback from the communities over the Winal SD model and undertaking modiWications (if any)
4
Final Results of the Simulation
Reference Mode and SD Model Finalization
Simulation of the Model
Community Based SD Modeling: Methodology
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Households using Improved Cookstoves
Upli Karech
Nichli Karech
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Households using biogas digesters
Gatuna ka Jhopra
Jalim ki Jhopra
Clean stove users30
22.5
15
7.5
02 2
2
22
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21 1
1
1
1
1
1
11 1 1 1 1 1 1
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028Time (Year)
ho
use
ho
lds
Clean stove users : Sustained use of clean stoves 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Clean stove users : Abandonment of clean stoves 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Reproducing the behavior for sustained use and abandonment of clean stoves: Reference Mode
Reference Mode
Families withoutclean stoves
Families usingboth clean and
traditional stoves(stackers)
Familiespredominantly
using clean stoves-
++
InstallationRate
Fraction of householdsthat adopt clean stoves
per month
+
Completeadoption rate
Installationthrough advocacy
+
AdvocacyEffectiveness
Installation throughWord of Mouth
+-
Contact Rate
InstallationFraction
Clean stoveusers
++
+
Knowledge ofclean stoves inthe communityLearning about
clean stoves
Number of issuesSolvingissues
New issues
Motivation forsustained use of
clean stovesChange in motivation forsustained use of clean
stoves
Time an issue isunsolved for
+-
Time householdexperiment with clean
stove +
Perceivedbenefits of clean
stoves
Changingbenefits
R2
Improvingcommunity-level
percieved benefits
R1
Word ofMouth
B1
MarketSaturation
R3
Knowledge ofclean stoves
R4
Motivation andsolving issues
Time to solveissues
-
+
-
+
Families withnon-functionalclean stoves
Rate ofabandonment by
stackers
Rate ofabandonment by
adoptersComplete
abandonment
+
+
External recognitionand encouragement
++
+
<Clean stoveusers>
+
+
+
Design model based on community based System Dynamics modeling
Clean stove users20
15
10
5
02 2
2
2
22
2
22
22 2 2 2 2
1 1
1
1
11
11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028Time (Year)
house
hold
s
Clean stove users : no repair 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Clean stove users : with repair 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Simulation showing results of repair intervention
Simulation showing results of increasing technical support
Clean stove users20
15
10
5
02 2
2
2
22
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21 1
1
1
11
11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028Time (Year)
hous
ehol
ds
Clean stove users : with TS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Clean stove users : no repair 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Simulation Results
Clean stove users30
22.5
15
7.5
02 2
2
22
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21 1
1
1
1
1
1
11 1 1 1 1 1 1
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028Time (Year)
ho
use
ho
lds
Clean stove users : Sustained use of clean stoves 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Clean stove users : Abandonment of clean stoves 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Simulation showing combination of repair, encouragement, and technical support
Reproducing the behavior for sustained use and abandonment of clean stoves: Reference Mode
Key Simulation Result reproducing the Reference Mode
Syntheses of Results: What do these lead to?
• Social advertising and motivation by external agencies are critical for sustained use of clean stoves
• Women can serve as opinion leaders and change agents
• Women’s social networks are critical in adoption and dissemination strategy of clean stoves
• Timely Maintenance and Repair • After-‐Market Support Strategy helps stackers to evolve as predominant clean stove users
• Development of Local-‐Expertise for minor maintenance issues, irrespective of imported or locally manufactured stoves
• Grooming of women for minor maintenance
Channel Strategy
Marketing Strategy
Praveen Kumar PhD Student and McDonnell International Scholar Washington University in St. Louis. Email: [email protected] Cell No: +1-‐314 566 6637
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