Dynamics of the Global Fruit Juice Marketjuicesummit.onetec.eu/Juice/1a_Philip Coverdale.pdfDynamics of the Global Fruit Juice Market Philip Coverdale, Director of Consulting, GlobalData

Dynamics of the Global Fruit Juice MarketPhilip Coverdale, Director of Consulting, GlobalData

4th October 2017

[email protected] | 0044 7734 324198 | Skype: philipcoverdale

Agenda

About GlobalData

Global Performance of Juice and Nectars

7 Top Trends Impacting the Industry

Summary

Canadean is now GlobalData

…plus 10 more

In 2017, 19 market research companies were integrated under the GlobalData brand

About GlobalData

23Offices

1,800Analysts of which 400 are FMCG

80 Countries with analysts on the ground

GlobalData office locations

GlobalData is now one of the world’s largest consumer research, market intelligence and consulting companies

500,000 Annual survey responses

Our portfolioGlobalData works with successful, world-leading brands across the value chain

Beverage brands Retailers Foodservice / suppliers

Ingredients suppliers Packaging/equipment Investors and consultancies

AIJN 2017 Liquid Fruit Market Report

• Key to our research is our partnership with Fruit Juice brands, producers and suppliers throughout Europe.

• Thank you to all of you who participated in this research programme.

Agenda

About GlobalData



Summary

Fruit Juice & Nectar Performance Globally

AfricaAPAC

Europe

LATAM

MENA

N America

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

2016 Juice & Nectars Litres per Capita

20

14

-20

16

CA

GR

%

• Our research shows that Total Fruit Juices and Nectars in EU declined by -2.4% from ‘15-’16.

• This picture hides the real opportunity in Europe, where winning brands are focussing on driving value growth.

• Successful brands are aligning with changing consumer trends.

Juice & Nectar Performance by Region

Bubble size = 2016 Volume

Source: GlobalData 2017

Fruit Juice Performance in EU

-

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Vo

lum

e (

M L

itre

s)

Chilled

Ambient

5y CAGR +1.6%

-

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Vo

lum

e (

M L

itre

s) From concentrate

Not from concentrate

5y CAGR +3.3%

Chilled vs Ambient Fruit Juice in EU From concentrate vs Not from concentrate in EU


Juice Price Performance in France and UK


3y CAGR 14-16 France UK

Premium 14.4% 10.3%

Mainstream 0.8% 2.4%

Discount -3.9% -6.6%

• Despite a negative overall picture, the Premium end of the price spectrum is growing strongly.

GlobalData’s Bayesian Forecasts

-

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Vo

lum

e (

M L

itre

s)

Juice Volume M Litres Nectars Volume M Litres

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Val

ue

(M

Eu

ros)

Juice Value M EUR Nectars Value M EUR

VOLUME Forecast, FJN in Europe, M Litres

VALUE Forecast, FJN in Europe, M Euros

-3.5% CAGR

-4.5% CAGR

-0.4% CAGR

-0.7% CAGR

-4.6% CAGR

-5.1% CAGR

-1.6% CAGR

-3.3% CAGR

Forecasts based on:

• Mean Household Disposable Income

• GDP per capita• Employment Rate• Temperature• Precipitation• Gini Indices• Life Expectancy• Inflation• Population• Net Migration• # Tertiary Students• Urban Population (%)• Age Demographic

Agenda

About GlobalData



Summary


Intro Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4 Trend 5 Trend 6 Trend 7

Healthy Hydration

1

Gut Happy

2

Adultification

3

Cold is Hot

4

5

Savory and Spice

6

Plant Power Beautiful Packaging

7

#1 Healthy Hydration


What’s the trend?

• Health is a key driver in soft drinks purchase decisions.

• Better for you has transitioned from nice-to-have to necessity.

High in vitamins

High in anti-

oxidants

Enhanced NaturalBetter for you

Fresh / Raw

Few ingredients

1 Implications and Actions

• Use terms such as raw, pure and clean on-pack.

• Focus on nutritional benefit of fruit and veg.

• Develop functional and enhanced juices highlighting vitamins, nutrients and benefits.

Views of “healthy”

OrganicFunctional

#2 Gut Happy


2 What’s the trend?

• Digestive Health is the 3rd most desired health benefit in food and drink globally.

• 76% of consumers find the product claim “good for digestion and gut health” appealing in food and drink

Global: consumer interest in food and drink that

improves digestive health, by age and gender, 20151

#3 Adultification



• Rising alcohol avoidance is driving demand for more sophisticated “adult soft drinks” suited to occasions typically associated with alcohol.

• Over 20% of every age bracket (except 65+) globally say they are actively trying to reduce alcohol consumption.

Implications and Actions

• Use pack designs that position juice as a credible alcohol alternative.

• Use sophisticated and experimental flavors.

• Emphasise quality of ingredients, provenance, authentic production methods and heritage.

#4 Cold is Hot



• The term “cold” addresses the desire for a cleaner diet. It is emerging as consumer-friendly way to express the clean label concept.

• Cold generates connotations of a fresher, more natural and more raw product.

• Where consumers may have negative health perceptions of juice, cold pressed juice evokes a reaction which overcomes this perception.

RawFresh

RealNaturalPure

Cold taps into some key on-trend industry buzzwords:

#5 Savory and Spice



• Savory and spicy flavors are appealing to those that want more exciting flavors but also seek healthy alternatives.

Global: consumers who think the following have a positive impact on health

66% 56%80%Ginger Cinnamon Turmeric

Implications and Actions

• Include on-trend spices such as turmeric, chilli and ginger.

• Add flavors with a spicy kick.

• Combine sweet and savoury flavours.

#6 Plant Power



• Brands are capitalising on the healthy and natural halo associated with plants and botanicals.

Global: consumers who think "botanicals/ plant extracts" have a positive impact on health, 2015

Implications and actions

• Capitalize on the naturally functional properties of botanicals and plants by promoting these on-pack.

#7 Beautiful Packaging



• Capturing the premium end of the market requires beautiful packaging.

• The rise of online also means that brands must grab the shopper’s attention within a split second, whilst also being suitable for home delivery.

Agenda

About GlobalData



Summary

Summary

►At a global level, Europe and North America are still in decline.

►MENA and APAC are the fastest growing markets and offer great opportunity.

►In Europe, although FJN Volume is declining, Value remains strong. This points to premiumisation in the market.

►Winning in Europe will require catering to changing market trends. These can be summarised in two points:

1. Premiumisation: High quality ingredients, processing techniques, provenance, heritage and beautiful packaging.

2. Counter negative health perceptions: healthy hydration, promoting digestion, using on-trend savoury, spicy and botanical ingredients and catering to alcohol avoiders.

Thank you.If you would like to contact me, please do so at:

Philip Coverdale, Director of ConsultingEmail: [email protected]: 0044 7734 324198

INNOVATION & INSIGHT

OPPORTUNITY ASSESSMENT

MARKET & PRODUCT STRATEGY

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FORECASTING

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Documents

Dynamics of the Global Fruit Juice Marketjuicesummit.onetec.eu/Juice/1a_Philip Coverdale.pdfDynamics of the Global Fruit Juice Market Philip Coverdale, Director of Consulting, GlobalData