Dynamic Position Analysis for July 1, 2020’(See assumptions on the Position Analysis Results website)’ Tue Jul 7 07:30:05 2020 WSM Bene Base Low Inter High HLM The width for each

Dynamic Position Analysis for July 1, 2020

SFWMM Model Simulation of 41 years ( 1965-2005 )

Modeling AssumptionsDiscussion of UPA Results

• Lake Okeechobee Projection within the Next 2 Months• Lake Okeechobee

o Percentileso Dry Yearso Wet Yearso AMO / ENSO Sub-Samplingo Spaghetti Ploto All ENSO Years

• Lake Okeechobee Probability Resultso Zone Probability Graphso Probability Band Width Grapho Zone Probability Tableo LORS Releases to the Estuarieso LORS Releases to the WCA's

• WCA-1 o Percentileso Dry Yearso Wet Yearso Canal Sub-Sampling Yearso AMO / ENSO Sub-Sampling

• WCA-2A o Percentileso Dry Yearso Wet Yearso Canal Sub-Sampling Yearso AMO / ENSO Sub-Sampling

• WCA-3A o Percentileso Dry Years o Wet Years o Canal Sub-Sampling Yearso AMO / ENSO Sub-Sampling

• Upper Kissimmee Stage and Flow o Lake Kissimmee Stage at S65o Lake Toho Stage at S61

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20-%20release%202/operational%20planning

July 1, 2020 Dynamic Position Analysis

Using Hybrid LOWSM Modeling Assumptions

• July 1, 2020 DPA is based on regular Position Analysis applying V6.7.4 of the SFWMM, and assuming the current Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook (LONINO) for each year simulated. It is based on historical climatic conditions spanning the period 1965-2005

• The model is reinitialized June 1st of each year

• The Lake Okeechobee operations follow the Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule (LORS2008). Modeling assumptions consistent with modeling performed for LORS-2008 Supplemental, Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS).

• LOK Temporary Forward Pump operations will be in place, whenever necessary, to improve water supply deliveries from the Lake under low Lake stages.

• STAs reflect current operational conditions

• Lake Okeechobee Water Shortage Management (LOWSM) is included in the simulation which reflects the currently approved 40E-21 and 40E-22 water shortage rules.

• Water supply restrictions simulated for the urban areas reflect current District water shortage management policies.

• Wet and Dry years selected by examining all years and choosing the wettest or driest years in both near and far-term.

Lake Okeechobee Water Shortage Triggering Line

01/01 03/31 04/30 05/30 05/31 09/30 10/01 10/31 11/30 12/31

12.15 11.70 10.95 10.50 10.50 13.00 13.00 12.80 12.40 12.16

• ENSO-neutral conditions are present. There is a ~60% chance of ENSO-neutral during summer 2020, with roughly equal chances (40-50%) of La Niña during the autumn and winter 2020-21

• ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) years (El Niño, La Niña and ENSO Neutral) are selected by locating the current month as it falls in the middle of the 3-month average in the official ONI table from NOAA/CPC:

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

If the current month is within an official ENSO event (5 consecutive 3-month periods) then that year is considered an ENSO year for that month, these years are compiled ahead of the model simulations for all ENSO events within the period of record of the model simulation. Each month will have a different set of years. The strength of the ENSO event may vary among the selected years, and the DPA simulation of these years may show wide variability in modeled stages.

• S-65E inflows entering Lake Okeechobee in the SFWMM simulation were obtained by adding S-65 flows, obtained from the UK-OPS simulation in a PA mode, and local runoff contribution from the Lower Kissimmee, computed as the difference of S65E and S65 historical flows for the period 1965-2005. Runoff contribution on any given day of the current PA month is adjusted based on a correlation function of Palmer Drought Index, rainfall and historical flows.

• Back pumping of excess runoff from the EAA into Lake Okeechobee takes place only under flood control conditions (Interim Action Plan).

• Operations for structures in the SDCS are more consistent with Increment 1.1/1.2

• Temporary deviation of operations:

1. L-29 Canal constraint of 8.5 2. S-357 discharging to C-111SD Northern Detention Area

• Information for the initial conditions can be viewed here. Initial stages for specified canals are shown here and gages are shown here.

• Please view the Documentation for the SFWMM.

Back to Operational Planning Main Page

: https://www.sfwmd.gov/sites/default/files/documents/sfwmm_final_121605.pdf

https://www.sfwmd.gov/science-data/operational-planning

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Lake Okeechobee SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisPercentiles PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 07:36:34 2020

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MAXP95P90P75P50P25P10P5MIN

Water Shortage Management Band

HLM High Inter Low BasFlo BenUse

High Lake Management Band

(See assumptions on the Position Analysis Results website)

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Lake Okeechobee SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisPercentiles PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:30:55 2020

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Tue Jul 7 06:30:55 2020






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Lake Okeechobee SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisDry Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:31:21 2020

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Tue Jul 7 06:31:21 2020

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(See assumptions on the Position Analysis Results website)(See assumptions on the Position Analysis Results website)

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Lake Okeechobee SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisWet Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:31:26 2020

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Tue Jul 7 06:31:26 2020

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Lake Okeechobee SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisAll ENSO Neutral Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:31:31 2020

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Lake Okeechobee SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisAll Simulated Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:34:14 2020

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1965−661966−671967−681968−691969−701970−711971−721972−731973−741974−751975−761976−771977−781978−791979−801980−811981−821982−831983−841984−851985−861986−871987−881988−891989−901990−911991−921992−931993−941994−951995−961996−971997−981998−991999−002000−012001−022002−032003−042004−05






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Lake Okeechobee SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisAll ENSO Neutral Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:31:31 2020

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020406080

100

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020406080100

Tue Jul 7 07:27:09 2020

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Lake Okeechobee − Band Probabilities’(See assumptions on the Position Analysis Results website)’

Tue Jul 7 07:27:09 2020

HLM

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WS

M

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Base

Bene

WSM

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and

(%)

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Lake Okeechobee − Probabilities for Operational Bands’(See assumptions on the Position Analysis Results website)’

Tue Jul 7 07:30:05 2020Tue Jul 7 07:30:05 2020

WSM

Bene

Base

Low

Inter

High

HLM

The width for each band gives the probability of stage falling in that band, as defined by theoperational schedules.

Lake Okechobee Band Probabilities (%) at the Begining of Each Month’(See assumptions on the Position Analysis Results website)’ Initial Stage 11.43 ft. for 06/01/2020

Date HLM High Inter Low Base Bene WSM2020 06 01 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.1 2.42020 07 01 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.1 2.42020 08 01 2.4 0.0 0.0 10.5 45.7 38.9 2.42020 09 01 2.4 0.0 0.3 26.6 46.9 10.5 13.22020 10 01 3.1 0.9 1.8 28.2 47.8 -0.0 18.32020 11 01 2.4 2.3 3.9 35.3 44.9 1.7 9.42020 12 01 2.4 -0.0 3.1 37.4 39.9 7.7 9.52021 01 01 2.4 -0.0 3.2 43.1 31.7 7.4 12.12021 02 01 2.4 -0.0 5.9 50.5 15.2 10.4 15.52021 03 01 2.7 1.6 6.4 44.2 14.8 10.6 19.82021 04 01 2.6 4.4 2.7 36.1 20.0 14.7 19.52021 05 01 2.4 -0.0 5.5 33.8 12.1 28.8 17.3

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Lake Okeechobee − LORS2008 Releases to the EstuariesUnconditional PA Operations (See assumptions on the Position Analysis Results website)

Tue Jul 7 07:24:44 2020

Stage in Base Flow Band or AboveRegulatory Discharge

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Lake Okeechobee − LORS2008 Releases to the WCA’sUnconditional PA Operations (See assumptions on the Position Analysis Results website)

Tue Jul 7 07:23:29 2020

Stage in Base Flow Band or AboveRegulatory Discharge

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Tue Jul 7 07:23:29 2020

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WCA1 SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisPercentiles PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:30:59 2020

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MAXP95P90P75P50P25P10P5MINFloor

Zone A−1 Zone A−2 Zone B Zone C


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WCA1 SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisDry Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:31:41 2020

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WCA1 SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisWet Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:31:46 2020

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CA1 Canal SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisPA_DPA Dry Years Plot

Tue Jul 7 06:32:46 2020

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WCA1 SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisAll ENSO Neutral Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:31:50 2020

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WCA2A SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisPercentiles PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:31:04 2020

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WCA2A SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisDry Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:31:59 2020

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WCA2A SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisWet Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:32:04 2020

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L38 Canal SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisPA_DPA Dry Years Plot

Tue Jul 7 06:33:12 2020

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WCA2A SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisAll ENSO Neutral Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:32:09 2020

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1966−671967−681968−691978−791979−801980−811981−821984−851989−901990−911992−931993−941996−972001−022003−042005−06Floor


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WCA3A SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisPercentiles PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:31:08 2020

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Zone A Zone D Zone E Zone E1


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WCA3A SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisDry Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:32:18 2020

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WCA3A SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisWet Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:32:23 2020

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1999−001995−961994−952001−021969−70Floor



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CA3 Canal SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisPA_DPA Dry Years Plot

Tue Jul 7 06:33:38 2020

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WCA3A SFWMM July 2020 Position AnalysisAll ENSO Neutral Years Plot PA_DPA

Tue Jul 7 06:32:28 2020

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1966−671967−681968−691978−791979−801980−811981−821984−851989−901990−911992−931993−941996−972001−022003−042005−06Floor



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)S65 UK−OPS Jul 1 2020 Position Analysis

UK−OPS Unconditional PA

Tue Jul 7 06:39:48 2020

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Zone A Zone B Zone C


dmorancy

Text Box

* Regulation schedules shown on this graphic represent the standard operating schedules

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UK−OPS Unconditional PA

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Zone A Zone C


dmorancy

Text Box

* Regulation schedules shown on this graphic represent the standard operating schedules

For the Dynamic Position Analysis the Upper Kissimmee Operations Screening (UK-OPS) Model is used to simulate water levels and releases from Lakes Kissimmee-Cypress-Hatchineha, Tohopekaliga, and East Lake Tohopekaliga. The UK-OPS Model operating assumptions are updated as needed to represent the intended operations strategy for the upcoming year. While SFWMD staff efforts continue toward improving the modeling tools for the Kissimmee basins, an intermediate solution is to use the UK-OPS Model.

AREA :Canal Name :SFWMM Name:Location :SFWMD sensor stage(ft) WPB :C-18 :C18 :G92-H : 13.24 WPB :C-17 :C17 :S44-H : 7.25 WPB :C-51W :C51W :S5AE-T : 12.68 WPB :C-51 :C51 :S155-H : 8.44 WCA :WCA-1 L-40 :CA1 :1-8C : 16.00 FTLD :Hillsboro Canal :HLSB :G56-H : 8.68 WCA :WCA-2A L-38 :L38 :S11B-H : 11.49 WCA :WCA-2A L-39 :CA2A :S10A-T : 13.07 FTLD :C-14 :C14 :S37B-H : 6.63 FTLD :C-14E :C14E :S37A-H : 3.46 FTLD :Pompano :POMP :G57-H : 4.43 FTLD :C-12 :C12 :S33-H : 3.67 FTLD :C-13 :C13 :S36-H : 4.85 FTLD :North New River Canal :NNRC :G54-H : 4.03 MIAMI :L-33 :L33 :S30-H : 5.95 MIAMI :C-304 :C304 :S31-H : 7.78 MIAMI :C-9 :C9 :S29-H : 2.48 MIAMI :C-9 DEN :C9DEN :S29-H : 2.48 MIAMI :C-8 :C8 :S28-H : 2.04 MIAMI :C-7 :C7 :S27-H : 1.33 MIAMI :C-6 :C6 :S26-H : 2.79 MIAMI :C-2/C-4 :C4 :S25B-H : 2.96 MIAMI :L-30 :L30 :S335-H : 7.00 WCA :WCA-3A L-29 :CA3 :S333-H : 9.36 WCA :S-12A :S12AD :S12A-T : 7.99 WCA :S-12B :S12BD :S12B-T : 7.96 WCA :S-12C :S12CD :S12C-T : 9.34 WCA :S-12D :S12DD :S12D-T : 9.35 MIAMI :L-29 :L29 :S334-H : 7.90 MIAMI :C-100C :C100C :S119-H : 3.31 MIAMI :C-100 :C100 :S118-H : 3.20 MIAMI :C-100A :C100A :S123-H : 2.57 HMST :C-1/S-148 :S148U :S148-H : 3.91 HMST :L-31N :L31N :S331-H : 5.09 HMST :C-1N :C1N :S149-H : 2.93 MIAMI :S-21 :S21 :S21-H : 2.26 HMST :L-31S :L31S :S176-H : 4.31 MIAMI :C-102N :C102N :S21A-H : 2.12 HMST :C-102 :C102 :S165-H : 3.04 MIAMI :C-103S :C103S :S167-H : 3.33 HMST :C-103N :C103N :S166-H : 3.16 HMST :C-103 :S179 :S179-H : 2.83 HMST :L-31W :L31W :S332-H : 4.27 HMST :C-111 :C111 :S177-H : 3.40 HMST :CNO :CNO :S179-H : 2.83 HMST :C-111E :C111E :S18C-H : 2.48 HMST :S-197 :S197 :S197-H : 2.21 EAA :L-23E :L23E :S8-T : 11.11 EAA :C-60 :C60 :S140-T : 11.37

SFWMM Name col row STAGE Source Data match domain match areas 1-7 31 48 16.22 USACE PA CA1 1-8T 34 47 15.92 USACE PA CA1 1-9 33 46 16.22 USACE PA CA1 2-17 29 40 12.47 USACE PA CA2 2-159 28 43 13.68 SFWMD-ARDAMS PA CA2 3-99 30 35 9.63 USACE CA2 3A-2 18 36 11.52 USACE PA CA3 3A-3 25 37 11.06 USACE PA CA3 3A-28 19 24 9.48 USACE PA CA3 3A-4 21 29 10.27 USACE PA CA3 3A-NW 18 40 11.97 SFWMD-ARDAMS CA3 3A-NE 23 40 10.88 SFWMD-ARDAMS CA3 3A-SW 16 30 9.79 SFWMD-ARDAMS CA3 3A-S 20 33 10.45 SFWMD-ARDAMS CA3 3-76 27 30 7.89 USACE 3-71 24 26 7.83 USACE SHARK 24 23 7.66 USACE CA3 3BS1W 26 23 7.39 SFWMD-ARDAMS HOLY1 19 45 12.21 SFWMD-ARDAMS WMA HOLY2 21 42 12.21 SFWMD-ARDAMS WMA ROTTN 15 46 12.81 SFWMD-OPERATIONS WMA ROTTS 16 43 12.83 SFWMD-OPERATIONS WMA NP205 15 20 0.84 USACE ENP NP201 19 21 7.47 USACE ENP NP36 17 14 4.24 USACE ENP NP38 16 9 1.93 USACE ENP NP46 17 7 1.64 USACE ENP NP67 22 7 2.39 USACE NP33 20 17 6.34 USACE ENP NP34 13 17 2.57 USACE ENP NP44 19 11 4.17 USACE ENP NP206 21 15 6.18 USACE ENP NESR2 25 21 7.41 USACE ENP THSO 23 9 4.02 USACE RG2 23 15 5.99 USACE ENP G3273 24 17 6.94 USACE PA ENP ANGEL 25 17 6.47 USACE PA ANGEL 26 17 6.47 USACE PA EVER4 25 8 -0.16 USACE PA SA3 E112 23 10 4.82 USACE ENP G620 18 19 6.47 USACE ENP

Temporarily Unavailable



Lake Okechobee Band Probabilities (%) at the Begining of Each Month’(See assumptions on the Position Analysis Results website)’ Initial Stage 11.43 ft. for 06/01/2020

Date HLM High Inter Low Base Bene WSM2020 06 01 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.1 2.42020 07 01 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.1 2.42020 08 01 2.4 0.0 0.0 10.5 45.7 38.9 2.42020 09 01 2.4 0.0 0.3 26.6 46.9 10.5 13.22020 10 01 3.1 0.9 1.8 28.2 47.8 -0.0 18.32020 11 01 2.4 2.3 3.9 35.3 44.9 1.7 9.42020 12 01 2.4 -0.0 3.1 37.4 39.9 7.7 9.52021 01 01 2.4 -0.0 3.2 43.1 31.7 7.4 12.12021 02 01 2.4 -0.0 5.9 50.5 15.2 10.4 15.52021 03 01 2.7 1.6 6.4 44.2 14.8 10.6 19.82021 04 01 2.6 4.4 2.7 36.1 20.0 14.7 19.52021 05 01 2.4 -0.0 5.5 33.8 12.1 28.8 17.3

Monthly Supply Side Management Results for the Lake Okeechobee Service Area Report by Water Years Oct-Sep (Volumes in 1000 ac-ft)

Run: SFWMM v6.7.4 - July 01, 2020 DPA Final LOK Stage 12.32

Note: SSM stands for Supply Side Management SSMwC.B. stands for Supply Side Management with cutback

Year Mon SSM Convey. % # Days # Days Supplem. Cutback % SSM Cutback Cutback Total % Total SSM SSMwC.B. Volume Volume Cutback Volume Convey. Cutback Cutback ---- --- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1965 10 0 0 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1965 11 0 0 46.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1965 12 0 0 40.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1966 1 0 0 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1966 2 0 0 15.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1966 3 0 0 62.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1966 4 0 0 58.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1966 5 0 0 49.49 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 1966 6 0 0 41.98 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.70 0.29 0.70 1966 7 0 0 3.91 0.00 0.00 0.08 2.09 0.08 2.09 1966 8 0 0 0.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1966 9 0 0 1.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00








































Annual Supply Side Management Results for the Lake Okeechobee Service Area Report by Water Years Oct-Sep (Volumes in 1000 ac-ft)

Run: SFWMM v6.7.4 - July 01, 2020 DPA Final LOK Stage 12.32

Note: SSM stands for Supply Side Management SSMwC.B. stands for Supply Side Management with cutback

Wat_Year SSM Convey. % # Days # Days Supplem. Cutback % SSM Cutback Cutback Total % Total SSM SSMwC.B. Volume Volume Cutback Volume Convey. Cutback Cutback ---- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1966 0 0 321.67 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.12 0.38 0.12 1967 0 0 733.92 0.00 0.00 1.81 0.25 1.81 0.25 1968 4 0 517.18 0.00 0.00 0.41 0.08 0.41 0.08 1969 0 0 361.21 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.14 0.50 0.14 1970 0 0 370.32 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.12 0.45 0.12 1971 137 73 794.38 144.50 18.19 9.32 1.17 153.83 19.36 1972 44 12 465.76 11.06 2.37 0.57 0.12 11.63 2.50 1973 239 42 475.39 36.71 7.72 1.81 0.38 38.52 8.10 1974 41 13 640.78 11.58 1.81 1.25 0.20 12.83 2.00 1975 0 0 563.98 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.10 0.55 0.10 1976 8 0 519.82 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.06 0.33 0.06 1977 16 2 541.85 2.04 0.38 0.43 0.08 2.47 0.46 1978 0 0 340.73 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.11 0.37 0.11 1979 18 0 357.39 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.11 0.40 0.11 1980 8 0 329.80 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.09 0.30 0.09 1981 243 107 788.34 178.88 22.69 7.41 0.94 186.29 23.63 1982 67 27 532.87 14.62 2.74 0.78 0.15 15.40 2.89 1983 0 0 461.18 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.16 0.73 0.16 1984 0 0 359.84 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.12 0.43 0.12 1985 97 30 588.42 42.90 7.29 0.86 0.15 43.76 7.44 1986 0 0 457.14 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.12 0.53 0.12 1987 40 12 478.86 15.60 3.26 0.64 0.13 16.24 3.39 1988 24 0 443.14 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.09 0.40 0.09 1989 66 9 642.22 3.47 0.54 1.66 0.26 5.13 0.80 1990 7 0 468.95 0.00 0.00 0.77 0.16 0.77 0.16 1991 0 0 364.14 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.08 0.30 0.08 1992 0 0 471.64 0.00 0.00 1.18 0.25 1.18 0.25 1993 52 6 516.26 7.55 1.46 0.31 0.06 7.86 1.52 1994 14 0 351.68 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.14 0.50 0.14 1995 0 0 300.15 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.12 0.35 0.12 1996 32 11 443.01 6.85 1.55 0.42 0.09 7.27 1.64 1997 209 49 413.53 24.41 5.90 1.67 0.40 26.08 6.31 1998 0 0 374.45 0.00 0.00 0.71 0.19 0.71 0.19 1999 0 0 536.45 0.00 0.00 1.43 0.27 1.43 0.27 2000 18 0 629.24 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.06 0.36 0.06 2001 188 101 820.57 155.26 18.92 7.61 0.93 162.87 19.85 2002 0 0 572.56 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.06 0.35 0.06 2003 0 0 368.27 0.00 0.00 0.41 0.11 0.41 0.11 2004 0 0 643.56 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.15 0.99 0.15 2005 0 0 457.53 0.00 0.00 1.02 0.22 1.02 0.22

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Documents

Dynamic Position Analysis for July 1, 2020’(See assumptions on the Position Analysis Results website)’ Tue Jul 7 07:30:05 2020 WSM Bene Base Low Inter High HLM The width for each