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Dynamic CO-CIN report to SAGE and NERVTAG (Allcases)
Dynamic content updated: 2020-11-16 03:34:40.
Executive summaryIncludes all patientsThere are 101749 patients included in CO-CIN. Of these, 25974 patient(s) have died and 12587 required ICU. 54089 have been discharged home.
AdmissionFigure 1
Status in patients admitted >=14 days from todayFigure 11
Dependent: death No Yes OR (univariable) OR (multivariable)
50-69 19116(80.7)
4566 (19.3) 4.76 (4.37-5.20, p<0.001) 4.40 (3.99-4.86, p<0.001)
70-79 12484(64.7)
6820 (35.3) 10.89 (9.99-11.88, p<0.001) 9.02 (8.18-9.97, p<0.001)
80+ 17252(55.7)
13700(44.3)
15.82 (14.56-17.23,p<0.001)
13.02 (11.82-14.38,p<0.001)
Sex at Birth Male 32945(67.9)
15548(32.1)
Female 28201(73.5)
10168(26.5)
0.76 (0.74-0.79, p<0.001) 0.70 (0.67-0.73, p<0.001)
Notspecified
0 (NaN) 0 (NaN)
Chronic cardiac disease NO 41680(75.4)
13623(24.6)
YES 15810(59.9)
10564(40.1)
2.04 (1.98-2.11, p<0.001) 1.16 (1.11-1.20, p<0.001)
Chronic pulmonary disease (notasthma)
NO 48722(72.6)
18375(27.4)
YES 8652 (60.5) 5641 (39.5) 1.73 (1.66-1.79, p<0.001) 1.27 (1.21-1.33, p<0.001)
Chronic neurological disorder NO 50566(71.6)
20038(28.4)
YES 6440 (63.1) 3764 (36.9) 1.47 (1.41-1.54, p<0.001) 1.17 (1.11-1.23, p<0.001)
Chronic hematologic disease NO 54687(71.0)
22381(29.0)
YES 2165 (62.2) 1316 (37.8) 1.49 (1.38-1.59, p<0.001) 1.17 (1.07-1.27, p<0.001)
Chronic kidney disease NO 49111(73.2)
18013(26.8)
YES 8108 (57.7) 5933 (42.3) 2.00 (1.92-2.07, p<0.001) 1.30 (1.25-1.37, p<0.001)
Dementia NO 49924(73.6)
17929(26.4)
YES 7122 (54.5) 5947 (45.5) 2.33 (2.24-2.42, p<0.001) 1.38 (1.31-1.44, p<0.001)
Obesity (as defined by clinical staff) NO 45067(70.5)
18828(29.5)
YES 6564 (74.4) 2259 (25.6) 0.82 (0.78-0.87, p<0.001) 1.26 (1.19-1.33, p<0.001)
Malignant neoplasm NO 52170(72.1)
20210(27.9)
YES 4713 (57.2) 3526 (42.8) 1.93 (1.84-2.02, p<0.001) 1.47 (1.39-1.55, p<0.001)
Number in dataframe = 91706, Number in model = 69178, Missing = 22528, AIC = 73658.1, C-statistic = 0.721, H&L = Chi-sq(8) 127.42 (p<0.001)
Figure 13 - Adjusted odds ratio plot
Cox proportional hazards modelThe methodology for this is now up and running, but models are still being explored. What is presented here is not a final model, but todemonstrate methodology. The results are correct, but important variables have not yet been included.
Time from symptom onset.
Dependent: Surv(time, status) all HR (univariable) HR (multivariable)
Age on admission (years) <50 13739 (14.9)
50-69 25326 (27.4) 4.35 (4.00-4.74, p<0.001) 4.14 (3.73-4.59, p<0.001)
70-79 20649 (22.3) 8.97 (8.26-9.75, p<0.001) 8.24 (7.44-9.13, p<0.001)
80+ 32787 (35.4) 12.26 (11.30-13.30, p<0.001) 10.98 (9.92-12.15, p<0.001)
Sex at Birth Male 51829 (55.8)
Female 41000 (44.2) 0.81 (0.79-0.83, p<0.001) 0.79 (0.76-0.81, p<0.001)
qSOFA score on admission 0 34277 (43.8)
1 34837 (44.5) 1.63 (1.58-1.68, p<0.001) 1.74 (1.68-1.80, p<0.001)
2 8261 (10.6) 3.19 (3.07-3.32, p<0.001) 2.95 (2.82-3.08, p<0.001)
3 889 (1.1) 5.22 (4.79-5.68, p<0.001) 4.66 (4.23-5.13, p<0.001)
Symptomatic at presentation No symptoms 5440 (6.1)
Symptoms 84249 (93.9) 1.65 (1.55-1.76, p<0.001)
Chronic cardiac disease NO 57918 (67.8)
YES 27541 (32.2) 1.83 (1.78-1.87, p<0.001) 1.14 (1.11-1.18, p<0.001)
Chronic kidney disease NO 70286 (82.8)
YES 14623 (17.2) 1.78 (1.73-1.83, p<0.001) 1.23 (1.19-1.28, p<0.001)
Moderate or severe liver disease NO 82465 (98.0)
YES 1663 (2.0) 1.30 (1.20-1.41, p<0.001) 1.41 (1.28-1.57, p<0.001)
Chronic neurological disorder NO 73936 (87.5)
YES 10592 (12.5) 1.40 (1.35-1.45, p<0.001)
Malignant neoplasm NO 75774 (89.8)
YES 8572 (10.2) 1.69 (1.63-1.75, p<0.001) 1.35 (1.30-1.41, p<0.001)
Chronic hematologic disease NO 80665 (95.7)
YES 3592 (4.3) 1.38 (1.30-1.46, p<0.001)
Obesity (as defined by clinical staff) NO 66830 (87.8)
YES 9249 (12.2) 0.84 (0.80-0.88, p<0.001) 1.16 (1.10-1.22, p<0.001)
Dependent: Surv(time, status) all HR (univariable) HR (multivariable)
Diabetes without complications NO 68705 (84.2)
YES 12911 (15.8) 1.27 (1.23-1.31, p<0.001)
Rheumatologic disorder NO 74296 (88.4)
YES 9773 (11.6) 1.19 (1.15-1.24, p<0.001)
Dementia NO 71136 (84.0)
YES 13542 (16.0) 2.05 (1.99-2.11, p<0.001) 1.17 (1.13-1.22, p<0.001)
Malnutrition NO 77036 (97.3)
YES 2134 (2.7) 1.48 (1.38-1.59, p<0.001)
smoking_mhyn_2levels NO 49178 (56.6)
YES 4817 (5.5) 0.87 (0.81-0.92, p<0.001)
N/K 32920 (37.9) 1.22 (1.19-1.25, p<0.001)
Number in dataframe = 93201, Number in model = 63975, Missing = 29226, Number of events = 17683, Concordance = 0.724 (SE = 0.002), R-squared = 0.160( Max possible = 0.998), Likelihood ratio test = 11140.533 (df = 13, p = 0.000)
Figure 16a - Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model
Figure 16b - Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model (age, sex, comorbidities only)
ROC = 0.7237218
Figure 17 - Predictions calibration plot
Figure 18 - Prognostic model predictionsAgain, for demonstration of methods.
Employed as a healthcare worker? NO YES p
Total N (%) 81062 (95.5) 3790 (4.5)
NEWS score on admission Median (IQR) 4.0 (4.0) 4.0 (4.0) <0.001
Death No 51341 (68.5) 3382 (92.8) <0.001
Yes 23569 (31.5) 262 (7.2)