16
Dutch bargain or Dutch treat? Reference projections for Energy and Emissions in the Netherlands

Dutch bargain or Dutch treat?

  • Upload
    cato

  • View
    68

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Reference projections for Energy and Emissions in the Netherlands. Dutch bargain or Dutch treat?. Why projections ?. Assessing whether the Netherlands will meet the national emission ceilings If not, what further measures/policies are needed? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Citation preview

Page 1: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Dutch bargain

or

Dutch treat?

Reference projections for Energy and Emissions in the Netherlands

Page 2: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 2

Why projections ?

Assessing whether the Netherlands will meet the national emission ceilings

If not, what further measures/policies are needed?

Input for modeling future health and ecosystem impacts.

Latter is used for spatial planning procedures.

Page 3: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 3

How projections ?

projection ≠ prediction; projections are scenario’s

Method:

• Eproj = Aproj * ef proj

• Eproj = possible future Emission

• Aproj = possible future Activity

• ef proj = possible future Emission Factor

Page 4: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 4

Scenario’s envisaged

Pri

vate

resp

on

sib

ility

International co-operation

National sovereignty

Strong EuropeSE

Pu

blic

resp

on

sib

ility

TransatlanticMarket

TM

Global EconomyGE

RegionalCommunities

RC

Page 5: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 5

History of projections

• Lessons from the past

• Late eighties “Concerns for tomorrow”

• 1989-2006: 6 Environmental outlooks

• Quality of projections? What were the

problems?

Page 6: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 6

Historical trend

Page 7: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 7

Policy and measures

starting point is ‘concrete’ policy, meaning

• sufficiently operational, • accompanied by instruments,• funded,• laid down in an official document and• for which powers have been granted.

• Following this CLE, an Additional Measures scenario is constructed

Page 8: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 8

Overview of policy: transport

• Emission standards for (road) transport

• BPM (car and motorcycle); purchase tax differentiation by relative energy efficiency

• sulphur level standards for fuels

Page 9: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 9

Overview of policy: agriculture

• Compulsory use of manure storage covers• Compulsory low-emission application of manure to

land• Low-emission livestock housing• Use standards (manure policy)• BEES1 to reduce NOx emissions in glasshouse

horticulture

• 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree

Page 10: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 10

Overview of policy: other

• NOx ETS

• 1BEES • Dutch Emissions Guidelines (NeR) • IPPC-BAT• Oil to gas fuel switch• NMVOC Reduction Plan• Solvents Decree and• Voluntary Agreements on Working Conditions

• 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree

Page 11: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 11

Measures in the pipeline

• SO2 agreements with refineries and energy producers

• IPPC-BAT• Oil to gas fuel switch• NMVOC Reduction Plan• Solvents Decree and• Voluntary Agreements on Working Conditions

• 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree

Page 12: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 12

Page 13: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 13

Latest projections

• Reference Projections Energy and Emissions 2005-2020

• Two scenarios picked for reference projections: • Global Economy and Strong Europe.

Page 14: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 14

Input for projections

• growth factors for different sectors from CPB (economical), LEI (agricultural), FOI (industry), ECN (energy) and NEAA (population, socio-economic, etc.)

• technological advancements from various international and national institutes (e.g. BREF documents)

Page 15: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 15

2050 Workshop

• request for ‘aspirational’ scenario for 2050. • TFIAM seeking co-operation with other groups. • national experts available who could share

experiences on longer term scenario building ‘backcasting’ the necessary steps.

• ‘2050-workshop’ end 2008 with goal to publish a paper in spring 2009.

• link with climate modeling strategies

please contact [email protected]

Page 16: Dutch bargain or  Dutch treat?

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 16

Thank you !