During the 18th century… The first limits for the human life span

At each period of the history of mankind, since the most At each period of the history of mankind, since the most primitive times, a small number of individuals were able to primitive times, a small number of individuals were able to live up to 100 years and to thus carry out the potential live up to 100 years and to thus carry out the potential maximum longevity of the species. maximum longevity of the species.

Biology of aging and longevityBiology of aging and longevity

R Cutler, 1985R Cutler, 1985

There is no evidence that the maximum human life span has There is no evidence that the maximum human life span has changed from what it was about a hundred thousand years changed from what it was about a hundred thousand years ago… ago…

… … If the human life span is really increasing, then, for If the human life span is really increasing, then, for example we might find that the oldest humans were reaching example we might find that the oldest humans were reaching the age of 100 years in 1850, 115 years in 1900, and 120 the age of 100 years in 1850, 115 years in 1900, and 120 years in 1950. This would be good evidence that maximum years in 1950. This would be good evidence that maximum life span is increasing, especially if large numbers of people life span is increasing, especially if large numbers of people in each period reached these very old ages.in each period reached these very old ages.

Hayflick, 1996Hayflick, 1996

European Health ForumEuropean Health ForumGastein, October 5th 2005Gastein, October 5th 2005

Perspectives for extendingPerspectives for extendinghealthy life expectancyhealthy life expectancy

Jean-Marie RobineJean-Marie RobineINSERM, Health and Demography, CRLC, University of INSERM, Health and Demography, CRLC, University of

Montpellier, FranceMontpellier, France

During the 18th century…During the 18th century…The first limits for the The first limits for the human life spanhuman life span Alexandre de Moivre (1724) : 86 ansAlexandre de Moivre (1724) : 86 ans Isaac de Graaf (1729) : 92 ans Isaac de Graaf (1729) : 92 ans

As for what is alleged, that by some observations of late years, it appears, that life is carried to 90, 95, and even to 100 years ; I am not more moved by it, than by the example of Parr, or Jenkins, the first of which lived 152 years, and the other 167.

de Moivre, 1724

Increase in life expectancyIncrease in life expectancy

Female life expectancy in the record-holding country since 1840…

Oeppen & Vaupel, 2002

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Increase in life expectancy in SwitzerlandIncrease in life expectancy in Switzerland

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

SMe0

SMe60

SMe80

Extrapolation linéaire



80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

SFe0

SFe60

SFe80




Robine & Paccaud, 2005

… … fall of mortality among the fall of mortality among the oldest-oldoldest-old

Mortality Mortality decline at decline at age 80age 80

Thatcher, 1999

England& Wales

Mortality rates at ages100-104 and 105 and Mortality rates at ages100-104 and 105 and over in Japan since 1975, femaleover in Japan since 1975, female

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Females 100-104

Females 105+

Trend 100-104

Trend 105+

Robine & al, 2003

Mortality trajectories?Mortality trajectories?

Modelisation…Modelisation…

Thatcher-Kannisto, database, 1998

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120

Prob

abil

ity

of d

eath

Vincent

Vaupel et al

Thatcher et al

Th-K Database IDL

Tokyo, June 2004, females, n=517

Robine & Vaupel, 2005

… … emergence of the oldest-oldemergence of the oldest-old

Emergence of the oldest-old in France Emergence of the oldest-old in France during the 20th centuryduring the 20th century

France 1901-1999, females

100

1000

10000

100000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

8081828384858687888990919293949596979899

23,000 centenarians in Japan in 200323,000 centenarians in Japan in 2003

Robine & Saito, 2003

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

24000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Total

Males

Females

More than 800 persons aged 105 and More than 800 persons aged 105 and over in Japan in 2002over in Japan in 2002


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Total

Males

Females

105+

Emergence of super-centenarians: more than 20 cases in Japan in 2002


0

5

10

15

20

25

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

110+

Lenghening of lifeLenghening of life

Distribution of deaths in SwitzerlandDistribution of deaths in Switzerland1876-1880, 1929-1932, 1988-19931876-1880, 1929-1932, 1988-1993

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

20 40 60 80 100 120

1876-80

1929-32

1988-93

Increase in the modal length of life and decrease in the Increase in the modal length of life and decrease in the standard deviation,standard deviation,

males and females, Switzerland,1876-1880 to 2001-2002males and females, Switzerland,1876-1880 to 2001-2002

65

70

75

80

85

90

1876-18801881-18851886-18901891-18951896-19001901-19051906-19101911-19151916-19201921-19251926-19301931-19351936-19401941-19451946-19501951-19551956-19601961-19651966-19701971-19751976-19801981-19851986-19901991-19951996-20002001-2002

M(N

orm

al)

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

SD(M

+),M

(Nor

mal

),dx(

LT)

M(Normal)

SD(M+),M(Normal),dx(LifeTable)

Males

65

70

75

80

85

90

1876-18801881-18851886-18901891-18951896-19001901-19051906-19101911-19151916-19201921-19251926-19301931-19351936-19401941-19451946-19501951-19551956-19601961-19651966-19701971-19751976-19801981-19851986-19901991-19951996-20002001-2002

M(N

orm

al)

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

SD(M

+),M

(Nor

mal

),dx(

LT)

M(Normal)

SD(M+),M(Normal),dx(LifeTable)

Females

Cheung, Robine, Paccaud, 2005

Maximum age reported at death, SwitzerlandMaximum age reported at death, Switzerland

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Sexe masculin

Sexe féminin

Maximum age reported at death, Switzerland 1876-2001

Robine & Paccaud, 2005

Frail population…Frail population…

Frail persons…Frail persons…

Distribution of the deaths according to the seasons

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Perc

enta

ge o

f obs

erve

d de

aths

Super-Centenarians

French Centenrians

Robine & Vaupel, 2001

In this context…In this context…

To give a priority to the quality of life even if this probably will lengthen it more.

Trends in LE and DFLE at age 65 in the European Union, 1995-2003, for women

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Ex

pe

cte

d y

ea

rs o

f lif

e

Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece

Ireland Italy Netherland Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom

LE

DFLE

Jagger and the EHEMU team, 2005

Trends in proportion of life spent disability-free at age 65

in the European Union, Women

= gain of 5% +

= loss of 5% +

= gain or loss of less than 5%

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f L

E s

pen

t d

isab

ility

-fre

e at

ag

e 65

Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece

Ireland Italy Netherland Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom

Jagger and the EHEMU team, 2005

Who will care for the oldest old?

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

BR (HMD)

BR (IDB)

Adj BR (Sc 0)

Adj BR (Sc NLTCS)

Adj BR (Sc 1)

Adj BR (Sc 2)

Rapport entre le nombre des personnes de 85 ans et pluset les femmes âgées de 50 à 75 ans en France de 1900 à 2050;

rapport ajusté selon les taux de dépendance du NLTCS et divers scénarios

Keeping the share betweenKeeping the share betweeninformal, informal + formal and formal LTC?informal, informal + formal and formal LTC?

More oldest old?More oldest old? More oldest old with LTC needs?More oldest old with LTC needs?

Disability declineDisability decline Use of technical equipmentUse of technical equipment

More families with oldest old (actual numbers / proportion)?More families with oldest old (actual numbers / proportion)? More available children?More available children?

ChildlessChildless Number of living childrenNumber of living children

Same willingness to care for?Same willingness to care for? Impact of divorce (father/daughter)…Impact of divorce (father/daughter)… Son participation in caringSon participation in caring

Same demand / same expectationSame demand / same expectation Ability to afford paid servicesAbility to afford paid services Level of education (SES differentials)Level of education (SES differentials)

Same level of disability for the oldest old with LTC needs?Same level of disability for the oldest old with LTC needs? Ability to care forAbility to care for

Informal use onlyInformal use only Informal and formalInformal and formal Formal onlyFormal only

Thank youThank you

Horizontalization of Horizontalization of the survival curve, the survival curve,

women, Switzerland, from women, Switzerland, from 1876-80 to 2001-021876-80 to 2001-02

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 20 40 60 80 100 120Age

Pro

port

ion

surv

ivin

g to

age

x (l

x)

1876-80

1956-60

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 20 40 60 80 100 120Age

Pro

po

rtio

n s

urv

ivin

g t

o a

ge

x (l

x)

2001-02

1956-60


Verticalization of the Verticalization of the survival curves,survival curves,

women in Switzerland, 1876-women in Switzerland, 1876-80 and 2001-0280 and 2001-02

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 20 40 60 80 100 120Age

Pro

port

ion

surv

ivin

g to

age

x (l

x)1876-80

Theoretical SC

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 20 40 60 80 100 120Age

Pro

port

ion

surv

ivin

g to

age

x (l

x)

2001-02

Theoretical SC


Documents

During the 18th century… The first limits for the human life span