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  • 7/28/2019 Dukascopy market research.pdf

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    Market Research

    21/01/2013

    EUR

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    Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

    Monday, January 21, 201316:30 GMTDominant Events for the Euro

    Yellow Area

    January 14

    06:00 - 16:00

    Eurozone Industrial

    Producon [link]

    Chicago FedPresident Speech

    [link]

    Turquoise Area

    January 15

    01:00 - 21:00

    U.K. CPI [link]

    Eurozone Trade

    Balance [link]

    U.S. Retail Sales

    [link]

    U.S. PPI [link]

    Blue Area

    January 16

    06:00 - 16:00

    Japanese

    Consumer

    Condence [link]

    Swiss Retail Sales

    [link]

    Eurozone CPI [link]

    U.S. CPI [link]

    Purple Area

    January 17

    07:00 - 19:00

    Swiss PPI [link]

    U.S. Housing Starts

    [link]

    U.S.

    Unemployment

    Claims [link]

    U.S. Philly Fed

    Manufacturing

    Index[link]

    Orange Area

    January 18

    07:00 - 17:00

    Japanese Industrial

    Producon [link]

    U.K. Retail Sales[link]

    U.S. UoM

    Consumer

    Senment[link]

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19244/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19244/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19245/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19245/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19299/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19299/http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-15012013-AP/EN/6-15012013-AP-EN.PDFhttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-15012013-AP/EN/6-15012013-AP-EN.PDFhttp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19354/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19354/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19353/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19353/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19350/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19350/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19351/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19351/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19408/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19408/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/housing-starts-in-u-s-jump-more-than-forecast-to-four-year-high.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/housing-starts-in-u-s-jump-more-than-forecast-to-four-year-high.htmlhttp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19406/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19406/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19398/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19398/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19462/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19462/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19461/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19461/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19460/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19460/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19460/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19461/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19462/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19398/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19406/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/housing-starts-in-u-s-jump-more-than-forecast-to-four-year-high.htmlhttp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19408/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19351/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19350/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19353/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19354/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-15012013-AP/EN/6-15012013-AP-EN.PDFhttp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19299/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19245/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19244/mailto:[email protected]
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    Relative Currency Strength

    Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

    Monday, January 21, 201316:30 GMT

    Currency Index Change

    Days EUR USD JPY GBP CHF AUD CAD SEK NZD5 0.44% 0.96% 0.07% -1.06% -1.71% 0.69% 0.08% -0.22% 0.78%

    20 1.69% 1.53% -6.92% -1.48% -1.49% 1.85% 1.20% 1.10% 1.80%130 7.42% -1.43% -16.89% -0.25% 3.45% -0.67% 0.28% 5.09% 2.89%

    Ap

    preciaon

    Base

    De

    preciaon

    Yens precipitous depreciaon has created a

    favourable for the Euros value environment,

    being that demand for the single European

    currency was also spurred by a successful bond

    aucon in Spain and an increased chance of

    Portugal returning back to open internaonal

    debt market. However, the other majorcurrencies remained impervious to these events

    and traded sideways during the whole week.

    Surprisingly, even U.S. unemployment claims and

    building permits failed to evoke strong changes in

    exchange rates that remained relavely sll. The

    only notable event was a detachment process of

    the Euro and Swiss Franc values, lower

    correlaon between which is expected to become

    a new characterisc of the market.

    ECBs decision not to encourage lending in the

    Eurozone by keeping the key interest rate unchangedhas lost its relevance over the weekend. The Euro

    thus slowly weakened amid soer data on the bloc,

    while the market was awaing another strong signal,

    absence of which accounts for a standsll unl Jan

    17. The consolidaon phase of the prices was then

    disturbed by corroboraon of the implied by the

    Japanese PM easing measures, announcement of

    which is most likely to take place during the nearest

    publicaon of the BoJ monetary policy statement on

    Jan 22.

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Volatility

    Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

    Monday, January 21, 201316:30 GMT

    Elevated Volality (% of the observed period)Market EUR/

    USDUSD/

    JPYGBP/

    USDAUD/

    USDUSD/

    CADUSD/

    CHFEUR/

    JPYEUR/

    GBPEUR/

    CHFUSD/

    SEKNZD/

    USD55 43 60 42 30 17 61 66 37 92 33 25

    Market EUR/USD

    USD/

    JPYGBP/

    USDAUD/

    USDUSD/

    CADUSD/

    CHFEUR/

    JPYEUR/

    GBPEUR/

    CHFUSD/

    SEKNZD/

    USDMax 1.6 2.8 2.3 2.3 2 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.3 4.3 2 3.9Min 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4

    Average 1 1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 2 0.9 0.9

    Volality Index (for the observed period)

    Turbulent

    Normal

    Tr

    anquil

    Among the currency pairs studied we may spot a

    strong polarizaon in terms of sensivity to

    dierent events, since USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/

    JPY and EUR/CHF were turbulent for more than a

    half of the me. However, the rest of the

    constuent of the DBVI remained more or less

    tranquil, without constantly exceeding theirnormal pace of change.

    The highest volality comparavely to its

    historical changeability was demonstrated by

    EUR/CHF, surpassing it 4.3 mes. However, the

    second more responsive currency pair proved to

    be NZD/USD, as New Zealand GDP gure released

    on Jan 17 has missed expectaons.

    Previously we have marked the similaries of

    volalies in the market and in EUR/USD currencypair, as their peaks, troughs and general levels

    largely coincided in the past, something that has not

    been observed in the last week. The changeability

    and therefore the range of EUR/USDs volality index

    has greatly increased, with the most recent

    maximum and minimum values being 2.8 and 0.4,

    respecvely, whereas the same measures of

    Dukascopy Bank Volality Index were 1.6 and 0.4,

    even though the averages were exactly the same1.

    This could be aributed to the fact that the Euro hasnow lost its inuence on the Swiss Franc and EUR/

    USD is no longer a reliable proxy to markets

    variability.

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

    Currency SignificanceMonday, January 21, 2013

    16:30 GMT

    Days EURJPY EURGBP EURCHF EURAUD EURCAD EURNZD EURSEK5 0.73 0.63 0.39 0.75 0.85 0.54 0.32

    20 0.67 0.65 0.27 0.69 0.78 0.45 0.27130 0.74 0.67 0.27 0.5 0.68 0.39 0.12

    Average Correlaon Coecient (with EURUSD)

    One of the tendencies that have been observed

    lately is the sharply rising interdependences

    between EUR/USD and EUR crosses with

    commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD),

    which were already signicant before, but now

    are even of a greater weight and concern to those

    who seek to reduce risk but at the same meremain exposed to the Euro. The similar trend is

    observed among all of the EUR crosses, but to a

    considerably smaller extent. Accordingly, these

    currency pairs provide more modest benets of

    diversicaon than they formerly did. The lowest

    average 50-hour rolling correlaon was recorded

    between EUR/JPY and EUR/SEK0.12.

    As indicated by the average correlaon coecient,

    the importance of the Euro has been declining fromthe elevated levels, but managed to stay near 0.4

    with mixed success. Consequently, the currency is

    highly unlikely to exhibit the impact of the same

    strength seen on Jan 10 and Jan 11, but is

    nevertheless inuenal in the context of the foreign

    exchange market. This is especially noceable in

    EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY and EUR/CAD currency pairs that

    historically have been closely linked to EUR/USD.

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

    Confidence Intervals for Next 24 HoursMonday, January 21, 2013

    16:30 GMT

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
  • 7/28/2019 Dukascopy market research.pdf

    7/8Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

    Interquarle Range

    Median

    Relave Density

    ValuesofObservatons

    Violin PlotViolin Plot is a combinaon of a Box Plot

    and rotated Kernel Density Plot

    EXPLANATIONS

    MethodologiesVolality Index

    Condence Interval

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2012/04/19/Volatility%20Index.pdfhttp://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2012/04/19/Volatility%20Index.pdfhttp://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2012/04/19/Confidence%20Interval.pdfhttp://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2012/04/19/Confidence%20Interval.pdfhttp://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2012/04/19/Confidence%20Interval.pdfhttp://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2012/04/19/Volatility%20Index.pdfmailto:[email protected]
  • 7/28/2019 Dukascopy market research.pdf

    8/8Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

    DisclaimerEverything in this arcle, including opinions and gures, is provided for informaonal purposes only and may not be interpreted as nancial advice or solicitaon of

    products. Dukascopy group assume no responsibility for the completeness or the accuracy of any data contained in this arcle. Financial gures indicated in this

    arcle have not been veried by the Dukascopy group. Views, opinions and analyses are those of the author of the arcle, and are not endorsed by the Dukascopy

    group.

    Dukascopy group waive any and all warranes, express or implied, regarding, but without limitaon to, warranes of the merchantability or the tness for aparcular purpose, with respect to all informaon in this arcle. Dukascopy group shall under no circumstances be responsible for any direct, indirect, consequenal,

    conngent or any other damages sustained in connecon with the use of this arcle.

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