Dublin Crane Survey - Deloitte United States1. National Statement of Housing Supply and Demand 2016 and Outlook for 2017-18. 2. Economic and Social Research Institute Quarterly Economic

Dublin Crane SurveyFebruary 2018

ContentsThe report 01

Key findings 03

Development snapshot 04

1 Residential 06

2 Office 11

3 Education and student housing 15

4 Hotel, retail & leisure 19

5 Development table 23

6 Contacts 35

01

The reportWhat?A report that measures the volume of development taking place across Dublin City Council and its impact. Property types include office, residential, student accommodation and hotels.

Where?Dublin, covering the Dublin City Council area.

Who?Developers building new schemes or undertaking significant refurbishment of the following: Minimum size:

• Residential - 25 units

• Office – 10,000 sq. ft.

• Education & Student Accommodation – 10,000 sq. ft.

• Hotel – 35 rooms

When?The report covers the period from December 2016 to November 2017.

How?Our Real Estate team in Dublin has monitored construction activity across the city by looking at commencement notices filed with Dublin City Council over the past 18 months, coupled with Deloitte market knowledge and walking the city identifying sites under development.

Phoenix Park

St Stephen’s Green

St Anne’s Park

National BotanicGardens

Terenure

Rathmines

Greenhills

Tallaght

Drimnagh

Ballyfermot

Palmerstown

Dublin zoo

Ballsbridge

Booterstown

Monkstown

Glasthule

Blackrock

Drumcondra

Ballymun

Cabra

Santry

Sutton

Baldoyle

Donaghmede

Kilbarrack

BullIsland

UCD

Dundrum

Milltown

Clontarf

Whitehall

Dublin

Dublin bay

Howth

85

79

69

65

82

55

80

7188

87

5870

86

76

84

75

72

89

64 67

90

7362

57

77 91

92

93

60

83

68

78

81

6354

74 6153

5666

62

59

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

Dublin port

M50

M50

Phoenix Park


St Anne’s Park


Dublin

Dublin bay

Howth

11

138

24

7

1212

1

10 6

3 9

5

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

Terenure

Rathmines

Greenhills

Tallaght

Drimnagh

Ballyfermot

Palmerstown

Ballsbridge

Booterstown

Monkstown

Glasthule

Blackrock

Drumcondra

Ballymun

Santry

Sutton

Baldoyle

Donaghmede

Kilbarrack

BullIsland

UCD

Dundrum

Milltown

Clontarf

Whitehall

Dublin port


Trinity CollegeDublin

Dublin Castle

IveaghGardens

National College of

Ireland

MerrionSquare

4239

51

36

48

45

3049

2629

2840

43

31

27

50

25

47

46

37

3444

38

23

2433

4135

6

Mountjoy Square Park

Harold’s Cross

Jameson Distillery

St Patrick’s Cathedral

Cathal Brugha Barracks

Aviva Stadium

Ringsend

Stella Gardens

Irishtown

Sandymount

Dublin Bay

The Gibson

Clayton Hotel Burlington

Road

Ballsbridge

East wall

EastPoint Business Park

Dublin Port Tolka Quay Rd

Marker Hotel

Dublin

Phoenix Park


St Anne’s Park


Dublin

Dublin

Dublin bay

Howth

Terenure

Rathmines

Greenhills

Tallaght

Drimnagh

Ballyfermot

Palmerstown

Ballsbridge

Booterstown

Monkstown

Glasthule

Blackrock

Drumcondra

Ballymun

Santry

Sutton

Baldoyle

Donaghmede

Kilbarrack

BullIsland

UCD

Dundrum

Milltown

Clontarf

Whitehall

Dublin port18

17 19

14 21

15

20

91 22

16

94

93

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

Dublin port

M50

M50

1. Residential

3. Education and student housing

2. Office

4. Hotel, retail and leisure

03

Key findingsCrane survey results: Outlook:

More than 3,634 residential units under construction 2017

Housing deficit and strong economic fundamentals in the Irish economy driving residential development

Over 4,026,431 sq. ft. of new and redeveloped office space under construction in 2017

North and South Docklands the epicentre for development activity in the commercial space

13 major student accommodation schemes under construction in 2017 will deliver 4,529 beds when complete

Strong development in the student accommodation space projected to continue into 2018

Brexit effects remain subdued; Dublin hotels nor the commercial office market appear to be impacted greatly at this point in time. However, a solution to housing deficit may increase attractiveness of Dublin as a location for the future

929 hotel rooms developed over the course of 2017

04

Development Snapshot

42 Residential

29 Office

13 Student Accommodation

9Hotels

12 Office

Which sectors are the most active? (Number of schemes under construction)

Total residential units under construction

3,634

Total officespace underdevelopment

4,026,431 sq.ft.

Number ofstudent bedsunder development

4,529

Total hotel rooms underdevelopment

929

06

IntroductionThe sustainability of Ireland’s recovery and economic future is dependent on a number of interdependent factors, including continued growth in the tradeable sector of the economy, Ireland’s ability to compete and attract talent to its cities and for its cities to adopt meaningful solutions, which address the real needs of its inhabitants. Fundamental to enabling economic prosperity is the provision of housing to meet the demand. Ireland is simply not producing enough housing, either in number or tenure type, to meet current and future demand. Housing completions fell from a peak of near 90,000 units in 2006 to a low of less than 10,000 in 2013. While there have been some tentative signs of improvement, housing completions remain exceptionally low with approximately 15,000 units completed in 2016.1 As of 2017, it is estimated that Ireland will have to build 25,000 residential units per annum to meet demand. The government continues to introduce new initiatives to address the imbalance in supply and demand,2 however, it will take time for these initiatives to create the desired and necessary impact.

Central to meeting housing demand is strong residential development activity and the existence of a proper functioning marketplace. Irish residential property prices peaked in 2007 followed by a fall of more than 50% over the period 2007 – 2013 and a bottoming out in 2013. The effect of the housing market collapse and high loan-to-value ratios saw many developers get into financial difficulty and left the banks with high levels of non-performing loans on their balance sheets, eroding trust and confidence in the banking sector. In late 2009, as part of its

response to the Irish financial crisis and the sudden deflation of the Irish property bubble, the Irish government created the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA). What followed was a prolonged period of reduced house building with developers exiting the market amid significant debt exposure. A dysfunctional and stagnant housing market ensued, with sale prices in many instances falling below the cost of construction. As market participants, and in particular banks, struggled to cope with the economic collapse, their focus shifted rapidly from development to one of survival and deleveraging. The pervading landscape of the markets is evidenced by the reduction in overall mortgage lending, which declined from a peak of €39.9bn in 2006 to just €2.5bn in 2011, five years later.3

This period of reduced house building along with improving economic conditions (Ireland being the Euro area’s fastest growing economy in 2016) has now created attractive market conditions for homebuilders in the short-to-medium term, as both house prices and rental rates increase across the capital. In the past five years, housing prices in Dublin have risen by an average of 61% or €134,300.4 This strong and sustained demand, combined with a supply shortage, has underpinned the increased construction activity being seen in the Capital.

2017 has been a positive step forward for residential development in the Dublin City Council area, with approximately 42 residential sites under construction. These schemes will add a total of 3,634 new residential units when complete. The increased level of activity in the sector has been driven by a number of factors, including

1 Residential

1. National Statement of Housing Supply and Demand 2016 and Outlook for 2017-18.

2. Economic and Social Research Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary

3. Banking and Payments Federation of Ireland: Mortgage Drawdowns Q2 2017

4. Daft.ie House Price Report Q3 2017

07

1 Residential | Dublin crane survey

renewed developer confidence, increased availability of credit from both traditional and alternative sources and the drive to meet increasing demand in a city which is experiencing a severe housing shortage.

Major developments

• Kennedy Wilson and NAMA have commenced construction of one of Dublin’s largest mixed use developments, Capital Dock, in the city’s docklands. The scheme is made up of 7 blocks, ranging from 3 to 19 storeys. When completed, the development will include 204 luxury apartments. A feature of the development is that businesses that locate in the office blocks will have priority access to the scheme’s apartments. JP Morgan has confirmed that it will acquire one of the schemes office blocks.

• On the site of the former Berkeley Court Hotel, Chartered Land is developing 5 pavilion-style seven and eight storey apartment blocks that will include 215 luxury apartments when completed. The penthouse has been pre-sold for €6.5m, the highest price ever paid for an apartment in the State.

• There are two major residential schemes underway in Ashtown (Dublin 15). Ballymore Properties is developing 156 housing units at their Royal Canal Park scheme. The development is a mix of houses and apartments. Similarly, Castlethorn Construction has commenced Phase 1 of a development at Rathborne Park consisting of 60 units. Phase 1 is part of a scheme that will ultimately include 208 three and four bedroom houses, a crèche and two five-a-side playing pitches.

• Marlet Property Group is developing 180 apartments at its Mount Argus development on Kimmage Road (Dublin 6). Located in Harold’s Cross, the scheme is made up of eight blocks ranging in height from three to five storeys.

• In Clongriffin (Dublin 13), Gannon Homes is in advanced stages of Phase 1 of its Beltree Park development which comprises of 114 three and four bedroom houses. Phase 2 and Phase 3 will add a further 29 and 28 houses respectively to this scheme.

• Dwyer Nolan Developments is developing a 106 unit scheme in St Margaret’s Road, Poppintree (Dublin 11). The development consists of 60 duplex units, 46 houses and associated roads, drainage and landscaping works.

New market strategies – PLCs and build-to-rentThe pipeline for new residential development across Dublin is strong and looks set to continue into the medium term as new entities enter the market. Glenveagh Properties, a joint venture between US private equity firm Oaktree Capital and Maynooth-based homebuilder Bridgedale, raised €500m through their IPO in 2017. Glenveagh has stated that it’s intention is to use the capital raised to build 1,000 homes per year by 2020 and 2,000 per year in the longer term.

Cairn Homes, the London-listed homebuilder, was the most active developer in the Dublin area over the past year with c.609 residential units in the pipeline. In the Grand Canal Dock area (Dublin 2), an area popular with young professionals and in close proximity to many blue chip companies, Cairn is building at Six Hanover Quay. The project consists of a 122 unit seven storey

08

mixed use development over a basement car park. Residential accommodation is proposed from first to seventh floors with retail units provided at ground level. In Rathgar (Dublin 6), Cairn is building the Marianella scheme which will include c.275 units across a range of formats, from one to four bedroom apartments to three bedroom townhouses. The scheme includes a residents’ clubhouse encompassing a gym, wellness suite, lounge and private cinema.

Dublin’s build-to-rent investment market reached €280m in 2017, with global institutional investors seeking to apply the professional letting model to the city. This is up from €220m and €250m in 2015 and 2016 respectively.5 The build-to-rent concept is commonplace in markets such as the US and is becoming an increasingly popular investment option across Europe and the UK. While still a relatively new model in Ireland, the Irish residential sector is attracting more institutional capital than before and build-to-rent schemes are beginning to appear on the landscape. Higher property prices linked to supply shortages are increasing pressure on an already

limited rental market. The highest number of households ever recorded (c. 500,000 according to the Central Statistics Office) are now renting. The ratio of homeownership to renting in Ireland was 70:30 in 2016 compared to 80:20 in 2006, confirming an increasing trend towards renting rather than buying among households.6 Ires REIT, the Canadian property investment company and Ireland’s largest landlord outside of the government, is one of the largest players in the build-to-rent market in Dublin. Other institutional investors in the market include US-headquartered Kennedy Wilson and Hines, with Irish Life expected to announce its entrance in the coming year. To date, most build-to-rent investors have bought already developed properties rather than developing greenfield sites. The largest residential investment transaction in Dublin City Council in 2017 was Kennedy Wilson’s purchase of 124 apartments at North Bank in the North Docklands (Dublin 1) for €45m.

5. Hooke & MacDonald Dublin Multi Family / Build to Rent Investment Market – Review and Outlook for 2018

6. CBRE - Alternative investment in Ireland 2017


09


ConclusionThe strong year for residential development in Dublin City Council was not without issue.

Challenges remain with respect to the efficiency of processes, availability of land, and reducing build costs to improve overall economics of homebuilding, including:

• Government policies such as the release of state land and recent tax reforms should help discourage the hoarding of land, but implementation of same may prove challenging.

• Further to this, the new National Planning Framework should help improve and expedite the granting of planning permissions. Infrastructure needs must also be addressed. Across the country, there have been calls to expand the Local Infrastructure Housing Activation Fund beyond the current €300m. To date, local authorities have sought €800m, indicating that the funds available are simply not sufficient.7

• Work remains to be done on reducing the average sale timeframe, with conveyancing taking on average 22 weeks in Ireland compared to the global average of 11 weeks.8 9

• From a financing cost perspective, access to senior debt remains difficult and particularly so for development assets. Traditional Irish senior lenders continue to apply a very narrow underwriting approach and with limited budgets. As a result, developers are turning to more expensive sources of capital through alternative funders to fulfil their requirements. The prevailing funding

landscape is unlikely to change dramatically over the short to medium term, and the presence of alternative lenders has become the new norm.

Ultimately, the increase in the supply of housing needs to be maintained in order to ensure that Dublin City remains an attractive destination for new business investment. This is particularly relevant as the impact of Brexit continues and UK based companies consider future EU location needs.

7. Deloitte Housing Report December 2017

8. www.lawsociety.ie/news/media/press-releases/econveyancing/

9. World Bank – Doing Business 2018

Total housing units being developed

FOR SALE

Average sale time

Ireland 22 weeks

Globally 11 weeks

Highest price ever paid for an apartment Penthouse at Lansdowne Place

€6.5m

3,634

Largest residential investment transaction Kennedy Wilson

€45m

10

Phoenix Park


St Anne’s Park


Terenure

Rathmines

Greenhills

Tallaght

Drimnagh

Ballyfermot

Palmerstown

Dublin zoo

Ballsbridge

Booterstown

Monkstown

Glasthule

Blackrock

Drumcondra

Ballymun

Cabra

Santry

Sutton

Baldoyle

Donaghmede

Kilbarrack

BullIsland

UCD

Dundrum

Milltown

Clontarf

Whitehall

Dublin

Dublin bay

Howth

85

79

69

65

82

55

80

7188

87

5870

86

76

84

75

72

89

64 67

90

7362

57

77 91

92

93

60

83

68

78

81

6354

74 6153

5666

62

59

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

Dublin port

M50

M50

11

IntroductionThe Irish economy performed strongly in 2017 with output rising at a rate of 5.8% per year compared to an average of 2% across the EU.10 Irish GDP growth is forecasted to be 5% in 2017 with 4.2% forecasted in 2018.11 This positive performance and outlook has resulted in jobs growth which has reduced the unemployment rate to 6.1%, down from over 10% in May 2015. Unemployment is expected to reach 5.4% in 2018.12 13

Office development in 2017 continued at a fast pace and economic indicators suggest strong market appetite exists for the year ahead. As per Deloitte Crane Survey count, there are 29 major developments underway that will culminate in c.4,026,431 sq. ft. of new office space when complete.

Major developmentsIn Dublin City Centre, office development has been the most active market segment. General sentiment is that the office market will level off in 2018, with this year marking the peak of the current development cycle.

• The Factory Building, Bolands Quay (Dublin 2) is one of the largest office developments in the Dublin City Council area. On completion, the scheme will encompass 309,592 sq. ft. of office space across two blocks, 12 and 13 storeys respectively, along with 41 residential units.

• Green REIT, the Irish real estate investment company, are developing One Molesworth Street (Dublin 2), a 137,304 sq. ft. six storey office block with retail units on ground floor. The building

is located in close proximity to Trinity College, the Grafton Street shopping area and Merrion Square. Barclays and Goshawk, the aircraft lessor, are among the companies which have already signed leases for office space at the new development.

• Targeted Investment Opportunities (an investment vehicle owned by Oaktree Capital, Bennett Development and NAMA) have two prominent developments underway in the Dublin 2 area at 76 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, and 5 Hanover Quay. At Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, TIO is developing a nine storey mixed use block, along with a further two storeys of office space and café/retail space. The development includes a total of 120,373 sq. ft. in office space along with 72 apartments. The 5 Hanover Quay development is a seven storey office building on the waterfront which will comprise of 191,921 sq. ft. of office space. Nearby at 13-18 City Quay, Irish Life is developing an eight storey office development on the River Liffey which will comprise of approximately 107,000 sq. ft. with a further 10,000 sq. ft. of retail space at the ground level. The property is expected to be completed by summer 2018 with Grant Thornton contracted as the tenants.

• As referenced within the Residential section of this report, Kennedy Wilson and NAMA’s Capital Dock scheme will bring three new office buildings to Dublin 2’s South Docklands. The buildings have a combined total of 343,483 sq. ft. of office space. JP Morgan have acquired one of the buildings, 200 Capital Dock and recruitment company Indeed will enter into 20-year leases for the other two office buildings, 100 and 300 Capital Dock respectively.

2 Office

10. Savills Research Q3 2017

11. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

12. CSO

13. ESRI

12

• The Reflector development is underway at 8 Hanover Quay. The scheme is a mixed use office and residential development in the South Docklands and is being developed by Park Developments Group. The project is to include a six storey office element with a total of 145,507 sq. ft. of office space and seven storey residential element comprising of 40 individual units. The development includes car parking, bicycle parking and a roof garden. Completion is expected in the third quarter of 2018.

• Under construction in North Wall Quay is The Landings mixed use development which will add over 1 million sq. ft. of office, residential and retail space. The project is one of the largest ever of its kind in the capital and will include 270 luxury apartments,

650,000 sq. ft. of office space, restaurants, a gym and a hotel. The National Treasury Management Agency have agreed a 25-year lease for one of the buildings, No. 1 Dublin Landings.

• In close proximity to each other in Dublin 2, there have been two significant developments in 2017 by the Clancourt Group. At 10 Earlsfort Terrace, law firm Arthur Cox signed a long-term lease for the new 132,000 sq. ft. office block that is their new Dublin headquarters. On the same street, 3 Park Place is under construction and due to complete in the first half of 2018. This addition to Hatch Street will add a further 170,908 sq. ft. of office space to one of Dublin’s prime business districts.

13

2. Office | Dublin crane survey

• On Fitzwilliam Street Lower, the ESB is building a new headquarters. The project involves the demolition of the existing buildings, the retention and refurbishment of a number of protected Georgian structures and the construction of a new seven-storey office block. The new headquarters will include 484,375 sq. ft. of office space.

• Hibernia REIT are developing a seven storey mixed use scheme at Cardiff Lane (Dublin 2). The development will include 152,126 sq. ft. of office space along with retail units at ground floor.

• At 1 Windmill Lane (Dublin 2), Hibernia REIT is developing 14 new residential units alongside 122,000 sq. ft. of office space and 7,000 sq. ft. of retail space. The building is another addition to the bustling Docklands and IFSC area which has seen strong activity in the past year.

ConclusionThe pipeline for new office space remains strong. Some of Dublin’s biggest ever office schemes are now under construction, including Capital Docks, Boland’s Mill and the Landings. The office market is bolstered by strong fundamentals (strong economic growth, low unemployment, low interest rates, low inflation) in the underlying Irish economy and the outlook is positive for 2018.

Since the UK voted to leave the EU in June 2016, there has been much speculation as to the likelihood of international firms relocating to Dublin in order to maintain the passporting rights required to sell services into Europe. A large uptake in office property was expected, however, this has yet to materialise in a meaningful manner as companies have delayed announcing

any major relocations due to uncertainty over the true impact of Brexit. Brexit may result in an added layer of activity to the Dublin property market, however, it is clear that a resolution to the housing supply issue must be found to make Dublin an attractive proposition for international companies.

4,026,431Total office space under development

sq.ft.

Number of major developments underway29

14


Trinity CollegeDublin

Dublin Castle

IveaghGardens

National College of

Ireland

MerrionSquare

4239

51

36

48

45

3049

2629

2840

43

31

27

50

25

47

46

37

3444

38

23

2433

4135

6

Mountjoy Square Park

Harold’s Cross

Jameson Distillery

St Patrick’s Cathedral

Cathal Brugha Barracks

Aviva Stadium

Ringsend

Stella Gardens

Irishtown

Sandymount

Dublin Bay

The Gibson

Clayton Hotel Burlington

Road

Ballsbridge

East wall

EastPoint Business Park

Dublin Port Tolka Quay Rd

Marker Hotel

Dublin

15

3 Education and student housingIntroductionIreland has the youngest and fastest growing population in Europe. Each year, around 56,000 students complete their final school exams and progress to third-level education. However, the growth in the student population has not been matched by an increased supply of student housing and as a result Dublin lags behind other cities in purpose built student accommodation. The existing stock of student accommodation caters for just over 13% of the 78,791 students based in Dublin, compared with 30% in London.14

Underdevelopment has led to a structurally undersupplied market in Dublin, resulting in many new schemes being launched as developers aim to take advantage of the high prevailing market rates and excess demand. As of May 2017, the Dublin area had 12,432 beds designated for student accommodation, which is insufficient to service the demand of 30,298 beds. Looking forward, this deficit is estimated to reduce marginally to 17,771 by 2019 and to 13,569 beds by 2024.15

The number of students studying in Dublin is now 43% of Ireland’s total student population with 61,500 full-time students enrolled at Dublin’s four biggest third-level institutions (University College Dublin, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin Institute of Technology and Dublin City University).16 To compound the undersupply of student accommodation, Dublin’s third level institutions are in a period of high growth, with DIT’s new campus in Grangegorman, Trinity’s planned technology campus at Grand Canal Dock and DCU’s planned €230m expansion all set to increase student numbers in the city.

This study has tracked 13 of the major schemes underway in the Dublin City Council area which will bring 4,529 beds to the market when completed. This development activity is in line with the Irish Government’s Rebuilding Ireland initiative which has set a target of bringing an additional 7,000 beds on stream by 2019.17

Major developments – student accommodation

• The largest student accommodation development in Dublin is the Point Campus in Dublin 1. The scheme is being developed by Michael O’Flynn and fund manager BlackRock Real Estate. The scheme will provide a total of 970 beds across two seven storey buildings with associated student amenities and facilities. The development is expected to complete in the second quarter of 2018.

• To the west of the Point Campus, there is a 374 bed development at Summerhill in Dublin 1. The project is being developed by McAleer & Rushe and is well located for students at both DIT Bolton Street and Trinity College. The project is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2018.

• At Dorset Point, Hines has developed a student accommodation complex that will add 477 beds. Located just north of the river, near the Grangegorman campus, Dorset Point will have a range of formats from 2 to 7 bedroom apartments along with amenities such as gym, study and cinema rooms.

• On 27-31 Church Street, Mortar Developments is developing a new 232 bed student accommodation scheme. The project will

14. Knight Frank Dublin Student Housing Report 2017

15. National Student Accommodation Strategy

16. Department of Education and Skills


16

3. Education and student housing | Dublin crane survey

include 226 single bedrooms and a further 6 twin bedrooms. The development will also include amenities such as a social space, a gym and a laundry room.

Taking a closer look at some of the developers, Global Student Accommodation (“GSA”) is building a 571 bed scheme at Brunswick Street, also serving the Grangegorman campus. GSA is a global investor in student accommodation and one of many foreign investors that have entered the Irish property market in recent years. Construction at Brunswick Street is expected to complete in the second quarter of 2018. GSA is also involved in the 491 bed development at Kavanagh Court on Gardiner Street (Dublin 1). Kavanagh Court is well placed to serve both Trinity College and DIT Bolton Street students.

17

ConclusionThe majority of new student accommodation developments are focused within the City Centre and despite some being more conveniently located to serve certain institutions, all are within manageable commuting distance from any of the Dublin third level institutions.

Recent activity also shows a changing dynamic in the student accommodation market. Student accommodation has traditionally been provided by third-level institutions, with 65% of developments built by the institutions themselves.18 Current activity demonstrates the increased appetite among the private sector in the student housing market.

The outlook going forward is positive. After a prolonged shortage, the market is responding and attempting to bridge supply. This is a task made difficult by the growing number of students entering third level education. Ireland has a young and fast growing population with increasingly high progression rates from secondary into third level education. Another trend is the rising influx of international students, particularly from Asian countries with a rapidly expanding middle class. For the Dublin region, the combination of catch up on the supply side and increasing demand suggests that the market will be an active one in 2018.

18. Knight Frank Dublin Student Housing Report 2017


Total beds under development4,529

Number of schemes underway13

Excess demand for student accommodation in 2017

17,866beds 19

3. Education and student housing | Dublin crane survey

18

Phoenix Park


St Anne’s Park


Dublin

Dublin bay

Howth

11

138

24

7

1212

1

10 6

3 9

5

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

Terenure

Rathmines

Greenhills

Tallaght

Drimnagh

Ballyfermot

Palmerstown

Ballsbridge

Booterstown

Monkstown

Glasthule

Blackrock

Drumcondra

Ballymun

Santry

Sutton

Baldoyle

Donaghmede

Kilbarrack

BullIsland

UCD

Dundrum

Milltown

Clontarf

Whitehall

Dublin port

19

IntroductionIreland’s economic recovery continues to drive demand across the hotel, retail and leisure sectors. In 2017, Ireland welcomed approximately 10.65 million overseas visitors, generating revenue of c.€5.78 billion.20 With tourism playing a large role in the success of this sector, market watchers are wary of a fall in UK tourists as the effects of Brexit and a weaker Sterling take hold. The UK is Ireland’s largest tourist market. This issue is likely to be somewhat offset by the strong US economy and dollar boosting tourism from America.

HotelThe Dublin hotel market had a strong year in 2017 with occupancy levels at c.84% for the year and average room rates of €177. The market dynamics in the Capital have increased the attractiveness of the market and led to an increase in planning permissions being sought and new hotels being developed. Furthermore, the Government’s decision to keep the VAT rate at 9% for hotel related trade has boosted the sector. A continuing challenge to the hotel and tourism market is the shortage of room availability in Dublin hotels.

Over the past 12 months, Dublin saw development activity that will add 929 rooms across the city, this included developments at the Iveagh Garden Hotel (152 bedrooms), the Dylan Hotel (28 bedroom extension) and Trinity City Hotel (77 bedroom extension).

Notable developments under construction include:

• The new hotel and aparthotel scheme at 35-37 Charlemont Street in Dublin 2. The new development will consist of 172 bedrooms with a further 6 aparthotel bedrooms. The five storey development will be a four star Clayton branded hotel run by Dalata when completed in October 2018.

• On Kevin Street (Dublin 8), Dalata is developing a 150 bedroom hotel. The development began in January 2017 and is expected to complete in May 2018. The project involved the demolition of the existing factory/warehouse that previously occupied the space. The hotel, operated under the Maldron name, is due to be operational from mid-2018.

• In Ranelagh, Press Up Entertainment Group is developing a boutique hotel that will consist of 41 bedrooms, a rooftop restaurant and a 50 seat arthouse cinema in the basement. The three storey hotel will also include a large open plan bar in the ground floor and conference facilities.

• At 1 Mill Street in Dublin 8, a 202 bedroom hotel is being developed. The seven storey hotel includes two restaurants and a gym on the ground floor which form separate tenancies. The property will be run by US hotel group Marriot International and operated under their Aloft brand.

4 Hotel, retail and leisure

20. Fáilte Ireland

20

• On Harcourt Street (Dublin 2), an area popular for nightlife, the Iveagh Garden Hotel, a new four star hotel is set to be complete in early 2018. The McGill Family are developing the property which will be the sixth hotel on the street and include 152 bedrooms.

Other hotels which are at various stages of planning include a 95 bedroom hotel planned at the former Loreto Hall in St Stephens Green, Dublin 2, and a 78 bedroom, six storey hotel planned for Donnybrook, Dublin 4, being developed by Emmet O’Neill’s Kouchin Holdings.

Retail and leisureDespite the growth of online shopping, Irish bricks-and-mortar retail has continued to perform well in 2017. On the demand side, Ireland’s underlying macroeconomics have been supportive of a robust retail sector. Unemployment is low at 6.1% with forecasts for it to continue to fall towards 5.4% in 2018. Improving employment dynamics and an increase in discretionary income have resulted in increased consumer spending. The prevailing low interest rate environment dissuades saving while at the same time more and more credit options become available to the consumer, from financing packages on cars and holidays to the broad range of credit card products that exist in the marketplace. Recent headlines in the sector include the potential creation of a new REIT focusing solely on retail property. Sigma Retail Partners are identified as being the likely promoters.

Notable developments in the retail and leisure space include:

• Refurbishments at 78-79 Grafton Street, Bewleys Café. The iconic venue reopened for business in November, having been closed since February 2015.

• Nearby at 28-29 Grafton Street, the IPUT owned building has undergone a major refurbishment and signed a long term lease with Victoria’s Secret.

• At the junction of Lennox Street and South Richmond Street (Dublin 8), Glebrier Construction is developing a four storey mixed use building. The project will include a gym in the basement, a retail unit on the ground floor and office space in the upper floors. The development will include a total of 45,768 sq. ft. of retail/leisure space and a further 21,506 sq. ft. of office space.

• On the Swords Road in Santry (Dublin 9), J Manning & Son is developing retail units at the Omni Park Shopping Centre. The new units have total area of 39,396 sq. ft.

ConclusionGiven the ongoing demand, it appears that the hotel sector will continue to increase capacity in the medium term. Strong occupancy levels coupled with increasing average room rates should ensure the economics of these new hotels stand. Within the Dublin City Council area under consideration, retail and leisure development is likely to continue with brownfield redevelopments/refurbishments rather than totally new build facilities.

Hotel developments underway9

Hotel rooms under development929

21

Phoenix Park


St Anne’s Park


Dublin

Dublin

Dublin bay

Howth

Terenure

Rathmines

Greenhills

Tallaght

Drimnagh

Ballyfermot

Palmerstown

Ballsbridge

Booterstown

Monkstown

Glasthule

Blackrock

Drumcondra

Ballymun

Santry

Sutton

Baldoyle

Donaghmede

Kilbarrack

BullIsland

UCD

Dundrum

Milltown

Clontarf

Whitehall

Dublin port18

17 19

14 21

15

20

91 22

16

94

93

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

Dublin port

M50

M50

22

23

No. Name/Address Developer/Contractor

Main use Total size (sq.ft./units)

Comments

1 10 Mill Street, Newmarket, Dublin 8

The Creedon Group Education & Student Accommodation

406 Construction of a mixed use student accommodation facility. To contain 406 Bedspaces.

2 Gardiner Street, Summerhill, Dublin 1

Global Student Accommodation

Education & Student Accommodation

491 Construction of a seven story student accommodation facility. To contain 491 bedspaces.

3 212/213 Pearse Street, Dublin 2

Trinity College Dublin


250 Construction of a mixed use student accommodation facility. To contain 250 Bedspaces.

4 Brunswick Street, Dublin 7 Global Student Accommodation


571 Construction of a mixed use student accommodation facility. To contain 571 bedspaces.

5 Point Campus, Dublin 1 O’Flynn Construction Education & Student Accommodation

970 Construction of a seven story student accommodation facility. Total development is 970 bed spaces

6 Protestant row / 14/15 Wexford Street, Dublin 2

Safestore (Ireland) Ltd


49 Construction of student accommodation facility. To contain 49 bedspaces.

7 27-31 Church Street, Dublin, Dublin 7

Mortar Developments


232 Construction of a mixed use student accommodation facility. To contain 232 bedspaces.

8 123-128 Summerhill, Mountjoy, Dublin 1

McAleer and Rushe Education & Student Accommodation


9 183-188 Pearse Street, Dublin 2

John Delaney Education & Student Accommodation

24 Construction of student accommodation facility. To contain 24 Units.

10 Junction of Mill Street and Blackpitts, Dublin 8

BAM Building Ltd Education & Student Accommodation

303 Construction of a 7 story student accommodation facility. To contain 303 Bedspaces.

5 Development table

24

5. Development table | Dublin crane survey



Comments

11 Grangegorman Road Lower, Grangegorman, Dublin 7

Iveragh Group Education & Student Accommodation


12 30 & 32-36 Thomas Street and 10 Hanbury Lane, Dublin 8

Hattington Capital Education & Student Accommodation

250 Construction of student accommodation facility on a site at Thomas Street and 10 Hanbury Lane, Dublin 8. The development consists of 2 new & 5 renovated buildings.

13 107 Dorset Street Upper, Inns Quay, Dublin 1

Targeted Investment Opportunities Ltd.


477 Development of 477 bed student accommodation.

14 Trinity City Hotel, Pearse Street, Dublin 2

John Paul Construction Limited

Hotel 77 The works comprise of a 45 bed new build and a 32 bed roof top extension.

15 Dylan Hotel, Eastmoreland Lane, Dublin 4

- Hotel 28 Extension adding 28 new beds to the Dylan Hotel.

16 72-74 Harcourt Street, Dublin 2

McGill Family Hotel 152 Development of a 4-star hotel that will comprise of 152 bedrooms and include a bar and bistro among the amenities.

17 1 Mill Street, Junction of Mill Street and Blackpitts, Dublin 8

BAM Ireland Hotel 202 Construction of a new 202 bedroom hotel consisting of 7 floors over ground. At Ground level there are two restaurants and gym which form separate tenancies.

18 81 & 82 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Dublin 1

Oakmount Hotel 58 Retention of existing protected structure facade with construction of new 5 story over double basement hotel with associated conference facilities, cafe, bar and restaurant. To provide 58 Rooms.

25



Comments

19 Kevin Street, Dublin 8, J.J. Rhatigan and Company

Hotel 150 Construction of a 150 bedroom hotel consisting of six storey over basement level building.

20 117-119 Ranelagh, Ranelagh, Dublin 6

Oakmount Hotel 41 The construction of a new three storey over basement building with a setback, penthouse top floor. Total of 41 guest bedrooms on the first and second floor levels and a roof-top Restaurant at the penthouse level.

21 Pearse Street, Dublin 2 John Paul Construction Limited

Hotel 43 Construction of seven storey extension to Trinity City Hotel to rear from second to sixth floor level comprising 43 bedrooms.

22 35/37 Charlemont St, Dublin 2

Dalata Hotel 178 Construction of new hotel & aparthotel scheme consisting of 172 bedrooms and 6 aparthotel bedrooms.

23 5 Hanover Quay, Dublin 2 TIO (an investment vehicle owned by Oaktree Capital, Bennett Development and NAMA)

Office 237,990 Construction of a new office building of 7 storeys, including 2 office/enterprise units at ground floor.

24 The Factory Building, Bolands Quay, Barrow St, Dublin 2 and Bolands Mill, Ringsend Road/Barrow Street, Grand Canal Dock, Dublin 4

NAMA Office 395,671 Bolands Quay mixed use development comprising 8 no. buildings known as Buildings A, B, C & D, 1, 2 & 3 and The Factory comprising office, residential, retail and assembly use.

25 10 Pembroke Place , Ballsbridge, Dublin 4

Pembroke Place Developments

Office 23,680 Construction of new 4 storey over basement office and new 4 storey over basement aparthotel.


26



Comments

26 3 Park Place, Dublin 2 Clancourt Group Office 170,908 Under construction and due to complete in the first half of 2018. This new addition to Hatch Street will add a further 170,908 sq. ft. of office space.

27 Vertium, 1 Burlington Road, Dublin 4

Ronan Group Office 172,724 Five storey office building, over two levels of basement, with office accommodation at upper basement level, parking and ancillary facilities at lower basement level. The total net internal office area is 16,000 sq m (172,724 sq. ft.) together with 95 car spaces.

28 21 Charlemont, Dublin 2, Ireland

Rohan Holdings Office 36,813 Development of a 6 storey over basement office building.

29 The Sharp Building, Hogan Place, Dublin 2

McGarrell Reilly Group

Office 44,745 44,745 sq m of modern Grade A office space set over seven floors.

30 5 Earlsfort Terrace, Dublin 2 IPUT Office 65,000 Redevelopment of building into modern office accommodation with car parking at basement level.

31 Fitzwilliam Street Lower, Dublin 2

ESB Office 484,375 The project involves the demolition of the existing buildings, the retention and refurbishment of a number of protected Georgian structures and the construction of a new seven-storey office block.

32 Elm Park Development, Dublin 4

Starwood Capital Office 182,500 The Seamark Building.

33 Waterways House, Grand Canal Quay, Dublin 2

Esprit Investments Limited

Office 38,600 Development of seven storey office building fronting onto Grand Canal Dock.


27



Comments

34 30-32 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay

IPUT Office 28,276 IPUT are undertaking a high quality refurbishment of the unique warehouse building to the front, with the potential to develop a modern office building on the site to the rear.

35 Dublin Exchange Facility, Mayor Street Lower, IFSC, Dublin 1

IPUT Office 136,895 The construction of a new six storey office building with a cafe/retail unit at ground level.

36 13-17 Dawson Street, Dublin 2

Bam Building Office 137,304 Construction of a six storey office building over three below ground levels.

37 Cardiff Lane, Dublin 2, Dublin 2

Hibernia Reit Office 152,126 Construction of a mixed use development in a building extending to 7-storeys (over lower ground & basement level), including retail/ non-retail services at ground floor, and commercial office development throughout the remainder of the proposed building.

38 76 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Grand Canal Dock, Dublin 2

TIO (an investment vehicle owned by Oaktree Capital, Bennett Development and NAMA)

Office 120,373 Construction of an office building comprising of 9 floors of office space with top floor set back facing Sir John Rogerson’s Quay along with 2 floors of office space located off Britain Quay and a cafe / retail unit.

39 1-6 Sir John Rogersons Quay, Dublin

Hibernia Reit Office 110000 Mixed use office/commercial development with all associated site works.

40 55 Charlemont Place , Dublin 2

Oakmount Office 70,999 Six storey office development.


28



Comments

41 New Wapping Street, Mayor Street Upper and Castleforbes Road, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1

Ballymore Office 114,087 The development will consist of construction of a new office building, along with the construction of a two level basement area below ground level.

42 13-18 City Quay, Dublin 2 Irish Life Office 118,000 The proposed development comprises a new eight storey office building with own door commercial units at ground floor located over a single storey basement car park.

43 10-11 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

IPUT Office 137,057 The development consists of a six storey office building (Ground + 5 upper levels) over three levels of basement (Basement-2, Basement-1 and Lower Ground Floor).

44 Capital Dock, Sir John Rogersons Quay, Dublin 2

Kennedy Wilson Office 343,483 The construction of a mixed-use development, including 7 blocks (Blocks A - G) ranging in height from 3 to 19 storeys delivering 204 apartments, together with retail units (Blocks E, F); cultural use (Block E, F), residential amenity services (Block E, F), a crèche (Block D) and restaurants (Block D, F, G). Two levels of basement will accommodate 391 no. car parking spaces and 650 no. bicycle parking spaces.

45 4-5 Harcourt Road, Dublin 2 JSL Group Ltd Office 75,993 Construction of a part seven part eight storey office building over one level of basement.

46 Grand Canal Quay, Dublin 2 Paul Hackett Office 37,771 Construction of a 7 Storey Over Basement Office Building


29



Comments

47 10-12 Hogan place, Dublin 2 Raymond Reilly Office 64,357 Construction of new 6 storey over basement office building, with 1 commercial unit at ground level.

48 One Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Green Reit Office 137,304 137,304 sq. ft. six storey office block with retail units on ground floor.

49 10 Earlsfort Terrace, Dublin 2 Clancourt Group Office 132,000 132,000 sq. ft. office block completed in the 2017.

50 No.1 Ballsbridge, Shelbourne Road, Dublin 4

The Comer Group Office 135,400 135,400 sq ft of premium grade-A office space and will achieve LEED Gold accreditation.

51 1 Windmill Lane, Dublin 2 Hibernia Reit Office 122,000 Development totals 122,000 sq. ft. of offices, 7,000 sq. ft. of retail and 14 residential units

52 Lansdowne Place, Dublin 4 Chartered Land/Abu Dhabi Investment Authority

Residential 215 215 luxury apartments across five pavilion-style seven- and eight-storey blocks.

53 Capital Dock, Sir John Rogersons Quay, Dublin 2

Kennedy Wilson Residential 204 The construction of a mixed-use development, including 7 blocks (Blocks A - G) ranging in height from 3 to 19 storeys delivering 204 apartments, together with retail units (Blocks E, F); cultural use (Block E, F), residential amenity services (Block E, F), a crèche (Block D) and restaurants (Block D, F, G). Two levels of basement will accommodate 391 no. car parking spaces and 650 no. bicycle parking spaces.

54 Beltree, Clongriffin, Dublin 13

Gannon Homes Limited

Residential 171 The construction of 171 no. houses in a number of phases.


30



Comments

55 Royal Canal Park , Pelletstown , Dublin 15

Ballymore RCP Developments Limited

Residential 156 The development will consist of 156 residential units and 3 retail units. To be completed in a number of phases, along with the development of an Aldi retail Unit (Shell & Core Only).

56 5 Hanover Quay, Grand Canal Dock, Dublin 2

Cairn Homes Residential 122 Seven storey mixed use development over a basement car park. Residential accommodation is proposed from first to seventh floors, consisting of 122 units, with retail units provided at ground level.

57 Poppintree, Ballymun, Dublin 11

Dwyer Nolan Developments Ltd

Residential 106 Development of a 106 unit scheme. The development consists of 60 duplex units, 46 houses and the associate roads, drainage and landscaping.

58 Dolphins Barn, Dublin 8 Purcell Construction Ltd

Residential 100 The refurbishment of 72 apartment units located in three four storey blocks resulting in 63 refurbished and upgraded apartments. The construction of of 28 apartments and the construction of 9 houses.

59 No.1 Ballsbridge, Shelbourne Road, Dublin 4

The Comer Group Residential 88 88 luxury apartments.

60 Main Street, Clongriffin, Dublin 13

GEM Construction Company Limited

Residential 84 The construction of 84 residential units and 2 commercial Units.

61 76 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Grand Canal Dock, Dublin 2

TIO (an investment vehicle owned by Oaktree Capital, Bennett Development and NAMA)

Residential 72 Construction of a Residential apartment block comprising of 72 apartments.


31



Comments

62 St. Joseph’s Centre, Gracepark Road, Dublin 9

CTN Developments Residential 62 Phase 1 of development, consisting of 42 housing units and Phase 2 of development, consisting of 20 houses. Commencing as part of a 137 unit development.

63 Parkside Boulevard, Balgriffin, Dublin 17

Cairn Homes Residential 48 Development comprises of 2 residential blocks providing a total of 48 units.

64 Broome Lodge, Fassaugh Road, Cabra, Dublin 7

Glasgiven Contracts Ltd

Residential 43 Construction of a three storey building containing 43 apartments for use as sheltered housing.

65 Saint Helena’s Drive, Finglas, Dublin 11

ABM Construction / ABM Design & Build Ltd.

Residential 40 Development of 40 Rapid Build units.

66 8 Hanover Quay, Dublin 2 Park Developments Residential 40 The construction of a mixed use development comprising of a 6 storey over basement office building and a 7 storey over basement residential element accommodating 40 residential units.

67 144 Richmond Road, Drumcondra, Dublin 3

J.J. Rhatigan and Company

Residential 39 Construction of a 4-storey over basement mixed-use development consisting of 39 apartments and 2 commercial units.

68 Belcamp Avenue, Darndale , Dublin 17

PJ Carey(Contractors) Ltd.

Residential 38 Development of 38 social housing units.

69 Ballymun Road, Ballymun, Dublin 9

Blacklough construction Ltd

Residential 31 Construction of 31 Apartments in a single 4 storey block, over an already completed basement and 11 Town houses in 3 blocks.


32



Comments

70 Mourne Road, Drimnagh, Dublin 12

ABM Construction / ABM Design & Build Ltd.

Residential 29 Development of 29 Rapid build modular social housing units.

71 Clancy Quay, Islandbridge, Dublin 8

Kennedy Wilson Residential 163 Phase 2 of Clancy Quay development will add 163 new units.

72 Elm Park Development, Dublin 4

Starwood Capital Residential 340 The development includes two blocks of multifamily housing totalling 332 units and a terrace of eight houses.

73 Grace Park Wood, Drumcondra, Dublin 9

Castlethorn Construction

Residential 123 Development of 123 housing units overphases.

74 1 Windmill Lane, Dublin 2 Hibernia Reit Residential 14 Development totals 122,000 sq. ft. of offices, 7,000 sq. ft. of retail and 14 residential units

75 75 Orwell Road, Rathgar, Dublin 6

Cairn Homes Residential 275 Construction of four residential apartment blocks and 12 semi-detached houses.

76 Mount Argus, Kimmage Road, Harolds Cross, Dublin 6w

Marlet Property Group

Residential 180 Construction of a residential development of 180 units.

77 Hampton Wood Drive, Poppintree, Dublin 11

Dwyer Nolan Developments Ltd

Residential 106 Construction of 106 residential units.

78 13 Malahide Road, Balgriffin, Dublin 17

Cairn Homes Residential 93 Development of 3 apartment blocks providing a total of 93 units.

79 Ardilaun Court, Sybil Hill Road, Raheny, Dublin 5

MKN Developments Ltd

Residential 76 The construction of 76 no. residential units.

80 Orchard Lawns, Cherry Orchard, Dublin 10

MDY Construction Residential 72 Construction of 72 residential] units.


33



Comments

81 Belmayne, Balgriffin, Dublin 17

Cairn Homes Residential 71 Construction of 71 residential units. The development comprises of 56 terraced, 10 semi-detached and 5 detached units and a mix of 28 three bed units and 43 four bed units. The proposed development includes 159 car parking spaces.

82 Rathborne, Ashtown, Dublin 15

Castlethorn Construction

Residential 60 Phase 1 of development at Rathborne Park, consisting of 60 housing units, commencing as part of 208 dwellings, a creche and two 5-a-side playing pitches.

83 Tonlegee road, Raheny, Dublin 4

DHD Construction Ltd

Residential 47 Construction of a 3 storey 47 unit apartment block for the elderly.

84 Terenure Road West, Dublin Kimpton Vale Ltd Residential 46 Construction of 46 residential units over a number of phases. Total development consists of 51 Units.

85 North Wall Quay, Dublin, Dublin 1

Michael McCarthy Residential 38 Construction of an 11 storey tower fronting onto North Wall Quay containing 38 residential apartments.

86 Raleigh Square, Crumlin, Dublin 12

Glenman Corporation

Residential 33 Construction of 33 apartments for social housing.

87 5-6 Johns Lane West, Dublin 8

Duggan Brothers (Contractors) Ltd

Residential 33 Apartment development consisting of 33 apartments.

88 Arbour Hill, Dublin, Dublin 7 Richmond Homes/Avestus

Residential 25 Construction of 25 houses.

89 288 Bannow Road, Cabra, Dublin 7

Paddy O Leary Residential 24 Development of 24 residential units.


34



Comments

90 Hampton, Grace Park Road, Drumcondra, Dublin 9

Verdi Developments Limited

Residential 21 The construction of 21 units. Overall Project consists of 101 residential units.

91 Cedarview, Northwood, Dublin 9

Cosgraves Residential 40 Development of 40 three-, four- and five- bed houses.

92 Wilkin's Court, Walkinstown, Dublin 12

Jackie Green Construction

Residential 30 Construction of about 30 three- and four- bed homes.

93 St Pancras, Mount Tallant Ave., Dublin 6W

Archtree Residential 36 Development of four bed houses , two- and three- bed apartments.

94 North Corner at junction of Lennox Street and South Richmond Street , Dublin 8

Glenbrier Construction

Retail and Lesiure 67,274 Development of a four storey over basement mixed use building providing the gym, retail and office space.

95 Swords Road, Santry , Dublin 9

MKN Developments Ltd

Retail and Lesiure 39,396 Construction of retail Unit 4/5 and Unit 6 (Shell and Core only) in Onmi Park Shopping Centre.

96 28-29 Grafton Street, Dublin 2

IPUT Retail and Lesiure 26,909 Major refurbishment into a flagship store for Victoria Secret.

97 78- 79 Grafton Street, Dublin 2

Ronan Group Retail and Lesiure Major refurbishment to Bewleys Café.


35

6. ContactsMichael FlynnReal Estate & Infrastructure National LeaderT: +353 1 417 2515E: [email protected]

Padraic WhelanPartner, Real Estate TaxT: +353 1 417 2848E: [email protected]

Vincent SorohanDirector, Financial Advisory Real EstateT: +353 1 4178849E: [email protected]

David CarsonPartner, Financial Advisory Real EstateT: +353 1 417 2513E: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]




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Documents

Dublin Crane Survey - Deloitte United States1. National Statement of Housing Supply and Demand 2016 and Outlook for 2017-18. 2. Economic and Social Research Institute Quarterly Economic