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DSM for soil erosion risk in Scotland with uncertainty propagation
Laura Poggio, Alessandro Gimona, Jim McLeod, Marie Castellazzi, Andrea Baggio Compagnucci, Justin Irvine
Brief outline
Erosion modelling
Digital Soil Mapping approach for input data :
soil, climate, land management
Correction for organic soils
Uncertainty propagation
R factor K factorC factor P factor
Land useVegetation MorphologyClimate Data Soil Data
K factorpeatsLS factor
RUSLEK * R * C * P * LS
modified from Panagos et al, 2015+
expert knowledge rules for peats (Lilly et al, 2002)
Soil OM
Input point data Points input data interpolated with a scorpan-kriging flavour: Soil properties: e.g. Organic soils Soil C stocks Input for K factor
Soil C stocks (1 m depth, kg/m2)
K Factor
Input point dataPoints input data interpolated with a scorpan-kriging flavour: Soil properties: e.g. Organic soils Soil C stocks Input for K factor
Soil C stocks (1 m depth, kg/m2)
K Factor
R Factor
Climate station data Inputs for R factor
Tested covariates
Snow
NDWI
EVI
Elevation
• MODIS• LANDSAT• Sentinel 1 and 2
Validation and GAM plotsK factor Organic soils R factor
xy *** *** ***
Elevation --- ** *
Slope * * ---
TWI --- --- ---
Soil Organic matter *** NA ---
EVI *** *** ---
NDWI *** * ---
Snow --- --- ---
Productivity * * ---
LST *** ** ---
Seasonality vegetation ** ** ---
Radar (Sentinel 1) *** *** *
Bioclimatic variables --- --- ***
Explained deviance 26.6% 60.5% 35.1%
RMSE 0.01 0.1 0.05
Input spatial data
C & P & S Factors
Spatial layers derived from basic GIS analysis:
C and P factorsRS, land use integration
S(heep) factor Downscale of district data for sheep and cowsDeer grazing(McLeod et al,2014,Unpublished)
Erodibility for Organic soilsExpert knowledge rules (Lilly et al, 2002)
Difference between
RUSLE without
organic soils
correction and with
organic soils
correction
Uncertainty propagation
1. Simulations from each of input factor interpolations with
summary statistics : median, quantiles a lot of
combinations (10^3) ^ 5
This can be simplified with e.g. Latin Hypercube Sampling
Uncertainty propagation
1. Simulations from each of input factor interpolations with
summary statistics : median, quantiles a lot of
combinations (10^3) ^ 5
This can be simplified with e.g. Latin Hypercube Sampling
1. Bayesian approach: e.g. Bayesian Belief Networks for risk
modelling output is a probability distribution of risk
High erosion risk Low erosion risk
Probability distribution of erosion risk
Thank you for your attention
This work was funded by the ScottishGovernment Environment, Land use andRural Stewardship research programme.