DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Module 2 Introduction Context Content Area: Hypothesis Generation Essential Question (Generic): What hypotheses might explain the

DrugEpi 2-2 In the News

Module 2 IntroductionContextContent Area: Hypothesis GenerationEssential Question (Generic): What hypotheses might explain the distribution of health-related events or states?Essential Question (Drug Abuse Specific): What hypotheses might explain drug abuse?Enduring Epidemiological Understanding: Clues for formulating hypotheses can be found by observing the way a health-related condition or behavior is distributed in a population.

SynopsisIn Module 2, students explore how descriptive epidemiological information on person, place, and time (PPT) are used to generate hypotheses to explain “why” a health-related event or state has occurred. Students begin to uncover and develop the following epidemiological concepts and skills: evaluating PPT information; developing hypotheses to explain that distribution; understanding that there may be more than one credible hypothesis; and recognizing when a particular hypothesis does NOT explain the PPT information.

Lesson 2-1: Overview of PPT and What’s My Hypothesis?Lesson 2-2: In the NewsLesson 2-3: Drug Abuse by “Person” Race / Ethnicity Lesson 2-4: Drug Abuse by “Place” States in USA Lesson 2-5: Drug Abuse by “Time” Boundary Effect


Module 2 - Hypothesis Generation

Lesson 2-2 In the News

Content

• Continuation of themes of using person, place, and time (PPT) to describe how a disease or other health-related condition is described in a population

• Review of definition of “hypothesis” and explanation of how PPT is used to generate “educated guesses” based on observation

• Use of news reports to give students practice in sorting clues into “person, place, and time” and identifying hypotheses

Big Ideas

• Person, place, and time (PPT) describes a disease or other health-related condition in terms of “who, where, and when”

• PPT information often leads to more than one reasonable hypothesis• Some news reports give information about PPT and discuss hypotheses• Hypothesis statements in epidemiology should include: 1) the population to be

compared; 2) the hypothesized cause; and 3) the hypothesized health effect or behavior.

This project is supported by a Science Education Drug Abuse Partnership Award, Grant Number 1R24DA016357-01, from the National Institute on Drug Abuse,

National Institutes of Health.


1. How is this disease distributed?

Health-related conditions and behaviors are not distributed uniformly in a population. They have unique distributions that can be described by how they are distributed in terms of person, place, and time.

2. What hypotheses might explain the distribution of disease?

Clues for formulating hypotheses can be found by observing the way a health-related condition or behavior is distributed in a population.

3. Is there an association between the hypothesized cause and the disease?

Causal hypotheses can be tested by observing exposures and diseases of people as they go about their daily lives. Information from these observational studies can be used to make and compare rates and identify associations.

4. Is the association causal?

Causation is only one explanation for an association between an exposure and a disease. Because observational studies are complicated by factors not controlled by the observer, other explanations also must be considered.

5. What should be done when preventable causes of disease are found?

Policy decisions are based on more than the scientific evidence. Because of competing values - social, economic, ethical, environmental, cultural, and political factors may also be considered.

Essential Questions Enduring Understandings

Where are we?


Descriptive Epidemiology

Study of the distribution of a disease or other health-related condition

Uses epidemiological characteristics of Person, Place, and Time (PPT)

Review

Basis for formulating hypotheses


Who?

Where?

When?

Person:

Place:

Time:

PPT Sheet

Review - Descriptive Epidemiology


An educated guess

An unproven idea, based on observation or reasoning, that can be supported or refuted through investigation

Review - Definition of Hypotheses


In The News


“Inhalant Abuse on the Rise Among Children”


Sample Article

Inhalant Abuse on the Rise Among Children by Shankar Vedantam, Washington Post, January 24, 2005; p. A06

Excerpts:

Diane Stem of Old Hickory, Tenn., vividly remembers the day she was called home by her distraught husband and daughter: Her 16-year-old son, Ricky Joe Stem Jr., had been found dead in the house with a plastic bag over his head. He had been sniffing Freon from the house's air-conditioning system . . .

. . . . . A hidden epidemic is gaining momentum in America, experts say. Children as young as fourth-graders are deliberately inhaling the fumes of dangerous chemicals from a variety of household and office products. Inhalants, as they are known, are widely available and hard to detect, and are fueling a dangerous trend: The most reliable annual survey of drug use among children has found that inhalants are the one group of drugs in which abuse is on the rise . . .


Brain, Heart, Kidney, Liver

June 2001

America-in all parts of the country

December 2001

Disease or Other Health-Related Event

Descriptive Epidemiologic Clues

Person Place Time

Children as young as 4th

graders

All parts of America

December 2001

June 2001

Brain, Heart, Kidney, Liver


Hypotheses

Anti-inhalant campaigns might unintentionally suggest the idea, or specific techniques,

to children who do not know about them

Educated Guesses

Ignorance may be the bigger problem

Parents seem to be in the dark


• The hypothesis will sound like a prediction• Be sure to include: 1) the population to be compared; 2) the

hypothesized cause; and 3) the hypothesized health-related effect (type and/or direction)

• Examples from previous slide and possible re-statements

Stating Educated Guesses as Hypotheses

“Anti-inhalant campaigns might unintentionally suggest the idea, or specific techniques, to children who do not know about them.”

Already stated in hypothesis language

“Ignorance may be the bigger problem.”

Teens’ misinformation or lack of information on inhalants is a cause of growing use

“Parent seem to be in the dark.” Lack of parental awareness contributes to a growing trend of inhalant use among teens.


Teams


Presentation


Criteria Got It Getting It Will Get It Soon

ParticipationAll team

members participate Most team

members participateSome team

members participate

Use of Epi TalkAll use is

appropriate and accurate

Most use is appropriate

and accurate

Some use is appropriate

and accurate

Disease or Health-Related Event

IdentifiedNot

identified

Descriptive Epi Clues

All identified and sorted correctly

Most identified and sorted correctly

Some identified and sorted correctly

Hypotheses All identified Most identified Some identified

Presentation Rubric


In the News

Investigation 2-2 has ended.


Big Ideas in this Lesson (2-2)

• Person, place, and time (PPT) describes a disease or other health-related condition in terms of “who, where, and when”

• PPT information often leads to more than one reasonable hypothesis

• Some news reports give information about PPT and discuss hypotheses

• Hypothesis statements in epidemiology should include: 1) the population to be compared; 2) the hypothesized cause; and 3) the hypothesized health effect or behavior.

This project is supported by a Science Education Drug Abuse Partnership Award, Grant Number 1R24DA016357-01, from the National Institute on Drug Abuse,

National Institutes of Health.

Re-Cap


Next Lesson

Documents

DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Module 2 Introduction Context Content Area: Hypothesis Generation Essential Question (Generic): What hypotheses might explain the