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Drivers of Homelessness August 2018

Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

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Page 1: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Drivers of Homelessness

August 2018

Page 2: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The Department of Commerce touches many aspects of community and economic development. We work with local governments, businesses, and civic leaders to strengthen communities so all Washington residents may thrive and prosper.

Safety / Crime Victims

BusinessAssistance

We Strengthen Communities

Planning Infrastructure CommunityFacilities

Housing

Page 3: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Commerce Organization

Community Services & Housing (CSHD)

______________

Office of Economic Development & Competitiveness

______________

Local Government ______________

Administrative Services______________

Policy, Strategy & Communications

______________

Energy

______________

Page 4: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Community Services and Housing Division Organization

Community Economic Opportunities

______________

James Helling

360.725.4144

Community Services and Housing Division

______________

Assistant Director

Diane Klontz

360.725.4142

Office of Crime Victim Advocacy and Public Safety

______________

Rick Torrance

360.725.2905

Housing Assistance

______________

Tedd Kelleher

360.725.2930

Housing Finance

______________

Corina Grigoras

360.725.4134

Page 5: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Diane Klontz

Assistant Director

EMS Band 3, #0216

Connie Shumate

Fiscal Ops Mgr

WMS Band 2

#0523

Naomi Ramos

Budget Analyst 4

#0522

Vacant

Budget Analyst 4

#0798

Vicki Thomte

Budget Analyst 4

#0972

Bill Johnston

Com Spec 4

#0587

Molly Onkka

Com Spec 5

#0979

Joyce Beebe

Com Spec 3

#0980

Susan Kempf

Com Spec 3

#1171

Jordan Deja

Com Spec 2

#1209

Robb Iyall

Com Spec 1

#1095

Karen Dunn

Com Spec 5

#0965

Karl Hoffman

Com Spec 3

#1132

Monica Bhavnani

Com Spec 1

#0402

Cecil Daniels

Com Spec 5

#0552

David Hoadley

Com Spec 2

#0519

Lisa Lipsey

Com Spec 1

#1052

Joe Brown

Com Spec 2

#0518

Rick Torrance

MD, OCVA / Public

Safety

WMS Band 2, #0515

Pearl Gipson Collier

Com Spec 5

#1061

Anita Granbois

Com Spec 3

#0759

Jodi Honeysett

Com Spec 3

#0962

Tara Wolfe

Com Spec 5

#0716

Sherina James

Com Spec 3

#0732

Nicky Gleason

Com Spec 5

#1137

Stephanie Pratt

Com Spec 3

#0850

Susanne Guinn

Com Spec 3

#1081

Vacant

Com Spec 2

#0811

Cheryl Rasch

Com Spec 2

#0934

Tedd Kelleher

Senior MD, HAU

WMS Band 2 #0505

Jennifer Lane

Admin Asst 3

#0809

Corina Grigoras

MD, HFU

WMS Band 2 #0914

Pam Denham

Com Spec 3

#0667

Leilani Hesser

Com Spec 3

#0622

Deborah Ornellas

Com Spec 2

#1233

TyeRae Guined

Com Spec 5

#1014

James Porter

Com Spec 2

#0475

Katrina Matson

Com Spec 1

#1228

Ann Campbell

Com Spec 5

#0736

Susan Butz

Com Spec 3

#0629

Sarah Dunn

Com Spec 3

#0922

Sean Harrington

Com Spec 3

#0630

Michael Cady

Com Spec 3

#0583

Sarah Alway

Com Spec 3

#1016

Darcy Eggeman

Com Spec 5

#1097

Vacant

Com Spec 3

#0737

Kathryn Stayrook

Admin Asst 2

#0799

Lori Salzer

Admin Asst 3

#0536

Nick Mondau

Data Systems Mgr

WMS Band 2

#1222

Maylee Stevenson

Com Spec 2

#1181

Jennifer Garrett

Com Spec 2

#1214

Kathryn Dodge

Com Spec 3

#1215

Kim Justice

ED Office of

Homeless Youth

#E1262

Kathy Kinard

Homeless Housing

Grants Ops Mgr -

WMS Band 2

#1221

Sarah Harrison

Com Spec 3

#0672

Jeff Spring

Com Spec 3

#1045

Talia Scott

Com Spec 5

#1043

August 2018

Community Services and Housing Division

Administration

Community Economic Opportunities Unit (CEO)

Housing Assistance Unit (HAU)

Housing Finance Unit (HFU)

Office of Crime Victims Advocacy/Public Safety

(OCVA)

Developmental Disabilities Council (DDC)

Carol Gjerstad

Com Spec 2

#1134

Tracy Gunter

Com Spec 3

#1218

My-Le Tang

Com Spec 2

#1268

Ian Kinder-Pyle

Com Spec 2

#1213

Michelle Reilly

Com Spec 3

#1053

Nathan Peppin

Com Spec 5

#0049Keith Yates

Com Spec 2

#1151

Alicia Osborne

Com Spec 1

#1229

Vacant

Office Asst 3

#0808

James Helling

MD, CEO

WMS Band 2 #1198

Diane Addison-

Martin

Com Spec 3

#1040

Brigid Henderson

Com Spec 3

#1007

Megan Baskett

Com Spec 2

#1244

Leslie Wolff

Mgmnt Analyst 5

#1185

Graham Parrington

Mgmnt Analyst 4

#1176

Emily Grossman

Lead Policy

Alignment Advisor

#0632

Robert Wikstrom

Com Spec 2

#1250

Arrie Hanson

Com Spec 3

#0977

Matt Mazur-Hart

Com Spec 3

#1144

Nancy Ogden

Com Spec 1

#1100

Dina Perry

Admin Asst 2

#0994

Kelly Tracy

Admin Asst 3

#1004

Julie Montgomery

Com Spec 3

#0548

Jessica Simon

Com Spec 3 P/T

#1022

Derek Cockle

Com Spec 2

#1005

Sarah Coggins

Admin Asst 4

#1187

Mark Porter

Com Spec 2

#1186

Jason Davidson

Portfolio Manager

WMS Band 2

#1072

Cynthia Sanderson

Com Spec 3

#1003

Dannette Summers

Com Spec 1

#1258

Bob Angeline

Com Spec 2

#1141

Maria Shattuck

Com Spec 1

#1269

Amy Thome

Com Spec 1

#1270

Nona White

Mgmnt Analyst 5

#1083

Mary Baldwin

Com Spec 2

#1089

Jessica Garrett

Com Spec 1

#0935

Sherrilyn Reed

Com Spec 2

#0918

Ed Holen, DDC

Exec Director

EMS Band 2 #1200

Aziz Aladin

Budget Analyst 4

#1201

Emily Rogers

Com Spec 1

#1205

Linda West

Com Spec 1

#1208

Brian Dahl

Com Spec 3

#1206

Aundreaha

Martinez

Com Spec 1

#1207

Philip Rasmussen

Office Asst 1

#1202

Donna Patrick

Com Spec 3

#1203

Alissa Hawks

Com Spec 3

#1318

Vacant

Com Spec 2

#1274

Jen Friedlander

Com Spec 2

#1275

Ashley Storey

Com Spec 2

#1273

Mary Soderquist

Com Spec 3

# P445

Kaletra Welch

Com Spec 2

#1276

Christopher

Poulos

ED Statewide

Reentry Council

#E1263

Peter Tassoni

Disabilities

Workgroup

WMS Band 2

#1278

Chris Gagnon

Com Spec 3

#1283

Michelle Bradley

Admin Asst 2

#1282

Lisa Sanchez

Com Spec 3

#1286

Regina McDougall

Com Spec 3

#1317

Jayme Khoo

Mgmnt Analyst 2

#1289

Megan Kendig

Com Spec 3

#5191

Zoe Myers

Com Spec 2

#1219

Cole Ketcherside

Com Spec 3

#1292

Emily Burgess

Mgmnt Analyst 5

#1293

Cary Retlin

BHSH Manager

WMS Band 2

#0984

Vacant

Admin Asst 3

#0511

Chanita Jackson

Com Spec 3

#1260

Tanya Mercier

Com Spec 5

#1297

Vacant

Mgmnt Analyst 5

#5198N

Scott Schumacher

Com Spec 3

#1302N

Nick Yuva

Com Spec 4

#1306

Tami Clark

Budget Analyst 4

#1310

Jennifer Caraway

Com Spec 2

#P461

Brian Fullerton

Com Spec 1

#1311

Vacant

Com Spec 3

#1312

Vacant

Com Spec 2

#1320

Paris Rogers

Com Spec 3

#1319

Page 6: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Increased Rents in Washington

Source: one bedroom http://www.zillow.com/home-values/

Page 7: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Rents in King County

Source: one bedroom http://www.zillow.com/home-values/

Page 8: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Rents in Whatcom County

Source: one bedroom http://www.zillow.com/home-values/

Page 9: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Rents in Spokane County

Source: one bedroom http://www.zillow.com/home-values/

Page 10: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Rents in Lower Cost Areas Served by Sound Transit

Source: one bedroom http://www.zillow.com/home-values/

Page 11: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

As Rents Grow, Homelessness Increases

Sources:Rent: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey one-year estimates for Washington State, B25058, inflation adjusted using Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-UHomelessness: WA point in time count, adjusted by : U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey one-year population estimate for Washington State1 - Journal of Urban Affairs, New Perspectives on Community-Level Determinants of Homelessness, 20122 - Dynamics of homelessness in urban America, arXiv:1707.09380

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

$660

$680

$700

$720

$740

$760

$780

$800

$820

$840

$860

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

WA

un

shel

tere

d p

er 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tio

n

WA

med

ian

ren

t 2

00

6 $

Median rent 2006 $ Per capita unsheltered homelessness

Page 12: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Homelessness Per Capita Rate

WA 5th highest per capita rate - WA: 0.29%, US: 0.17%

21,112 people

8,591 living unsheltered

7,834 in households without children

757 people in households with children

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peo

ple

per

10

0,0

00

po

pu

lati

on

exp

erie

nci

ng

ho

mel

essn

ess

WA Unsheltered WA Sheltered US TOTAL homeless per 100,000

Page 13: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Rents vs. Homelessness - WA is Average

Alaska

AlabamaArkansas

Arizona

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Iowa

Idaho

IndianaKansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Massachusetts

Maryland

Maine

Michigan

Minnesota

Missouri

MontanaNorth Carolina

North Dakota

Nebraska

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

Nevada

New York

OhioOklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

TexasUtah

Virginia

Vermont

Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50%

Me

dia

n c

on

trac

t re

nt,

Ce

nsu

s B

ure

au A

CS

20

16

1-

year

est

imat

e

Percent of population experiencing homelessness, HUD AHAR 2017

Page 14: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Rents Are Increasing While Income Growth Lags

Median rent

+22%

Middle incomes

+7%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% c

han

ge in

flat

ion

ad

just

ed

$

Low incomes (bottom 20%of households) +3%

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey one-year estimates for Washington State, B25058 , B25057, B19081; inflation adjusted using the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U.

Lowest quartile rent+17%

Page 15: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Rents Compared to Minimum Wage and Disability Income Growth

Disability income +24%

Minumum wage

Rent +49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Supplemental Security Income (SSI) Minumum wage

Rent lower qunitile units Rent lower qunitile units projection

Rent data sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey one-year estimates for Washington State, B25057

Page 16: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

WA Economy is Above Average and Improving

Since 2012:

Ranked #1 in GDP growth – two years in a row• Per capita GDP ranked #10

More people working• Percent of population employed increasing - ranked #25

Earned incomes increasing• Median income ranked #9, median income growth ranked #2• Lowest quintile income rank #8, lowest quintile income growth

ranked #4

Page 17: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

WA Employment Rate is Above Average

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population, percent of population employed

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Percent of people working

WA US

Page 18: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

In WA More Prime-Age People are Working

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population, percent of ages 25-54 employed

67.00%

69.00%

71.00%

73.00%

75.00%

77.00%

79.00%

81.00%

83.00%

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Prime Age Employment - Ages 25-54

WA USA

Page 19: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Washington Ranked #25 in Employed Population

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment status of the civilian non-institutional in states, percent of population employed

58

.3

21

.5

55

.7

77

.0

78

.5

76

.3

63

.0

18

.9

60

.8

28

.3

63

.8

76

.5

78

.9

78

.8

63

.0

18

.5

60

.9

35

.6

66

.2

75

.9

80

.6

77

.7

63

.5

19

.0

60

.1

30

.3

66

.0

78

.3

79

.8

77

.8

62

.5

18

.6

T O T A L 1 6 - 1 9 2 0 - 2 4 2 5 - 3 4 3 5 - 4 4 4 5 - 5 4 5 5 - 6 4 6 5 +

2017 PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION EMPLOYED BY AGE GROUP

NY Texas WA USA

Page 20: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

What’s the Maximum Level of Achievable Employment?

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population, percent of ages 25-54 employed

Page 21: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

WA Ratio of People with Disabilities Receiving SSI Below National Average

Source: https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_sc/

Washington, 0.019

Washington, 0.021

United States, 0.024

United States, 0.026

California, 0.034California, 0.033

Texas, 0.022

Texas, 0.024

King County , 0.017

King County , 0.018

Pierce County , 0.021

Pierce County , 0.023

Snohomish County , 0.014

Snohomish County , 0.016

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

0.035

2006 2016

Ratio: Supplemental Security Income recipients vs. Population

Page 22: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

WA Families are Above Average and Improving

Since 2012:

Family stability increasing

• Divorce, domestic violence, and teenage pregnancy declining

• Percentage of children in married couple households increasing - WA ranked #5

• Percentage of married couple households increasing –WA ranked #8

Page 23: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

More WA Children Living in Married-Couple Families

70.9%

70.7%

71.3%

70.6%

70.9%

69.8% 69.6%

70.4%

69.9%

70.4%

72.8%

60.0%

62.0%

64.0%

66.0%

68.0%

70.0%

72.0%

74.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Divorce rate

Sources: Children in married-couple households from Census Bureau ACS Table B09005;

WA

USA

Page 24: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

A National Crisis – Opioid Deaths

Page 25: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Alcohol and Drug Dependence: A Mixed Picture

Since 2012:

WA ranks 18th in substance use disorder 2

1. Alcohol use disorder declined, ranked 29th 2

2. Overall illicit drug dependence may be stable, ranked 11th 1, 2

3. Ranked 13th in pain reliever use disorder, and 12th in heroin use 2

4. Opioids continue to be a crisis, WA ranks 32nd in prevalence of drug overdose deaths 4

Sources: 1 - SAMHSA, Center for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality, National, Survey on Drug Use and Health, Table 106, Washington State, 2010-11 report compared to 2014 report 2 – Rank derived from 2015-2016 National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Model-Based Prevalence Estimates 50 States; trend derived from National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Comparison of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015 Population Percentages 50 States3 – DOH: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/Pubs/346-083-SummaryOpioidOverdoseData.pdf4 - CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/wr/mm655051e1.htm

0

200

400

600

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Opioid-related overdose deaths3

All opioid related deaths

Prescription opioid overdose deaths

Heroin overdose deaths

Synthetic opioid overdose deaths

Page 26: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Since 2005: Population +19%, Housing units +14%

Source: American Community Survey 1-Year Estimateshttp://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_14_1YR_DP04&prodType=tablehttps://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_16_1YR_B25001&prodType=tablehttps://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_16_1YR_S0101&prodType=table

Housing unit deficit: 118,377

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

ew h

ou

sin

g u

nit

s

Actual additional units since 2005 Deficit of units

Deficit of new housing units necessary to maintain 2005 ratio of people to housing units in WA

Page 27: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Below historic average building permits being issued -

WA through June 2018

Source: Federal Reserve FRED

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

19

93

-01

19

93

-07

19

94

-01

19

94

-07

19

95

-01

19

95

-07

19

96

-01

19

96

-07

19

97

-01

19

97

-07

19

98

-01

19

98

-07

19

99

-01

19

99

-07

20

00

-01

20

00

-07

20

01

-01

20

01

-07

20

02

-01

20

02

-07

20

03

-01

20

03

-07

20

04

-01

20

04

-07

20

05

-01

20

05

-07

20

06

-01

20

06

-07

20

07

-01

20

07

-07

20

08

-01

20

08

-07

20

09

-01

20

09

-07

20

10

-01

20

10

-07

20

11

-01

20

11

-07

20

12

-01

20

12

-07

20

13

-01

20

13

-07

20

14

-01

20

14

-07

20

15

-01

20

15

-07

20

16

-01

20

16

-07

20

17

-01

20

17

-07

20

18

-01

WA Ratio of housing permits to population increase

Page 28: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

National Comparison of Growth in Population vs. Housing Units

Source: American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

San Francisco, -10.4%

Atlanta, 7.7%

-

Houston, -3.6%

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, -7.1%

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington , -4.7%

Miami-Dade County , -6.5%

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdate , -4.2%

Denver County-Aurora , -12.8%

2005 2016

Large metropolitan areas with >10% population growth, housing unit growth minus population growth

Page 29: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

WA ranked #50 - Rental Vacancy Lowest in the US

Sources: American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Table DP041 – U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Vacancy and Homeownership rates by State2 - http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/w07-7.pdf

A 7% vacancy rate is considered the balanced, or “natural” rate 2

2010 2012 2014 2015 2016

United States 8.2% 6.8% 6.3% 5.9% 5.9%California 5.9% 4.5% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3%

Massachusetts 5.8% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0%Oregon 5.6% 4.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.2%

Texas 10.6% 8.5% 7.3% 7.0% 7.7%

Washington 5.8% 5.3% 4.2% 3.3% 3.2%Clark County 8.2% 3.4% 2.4% 2.2% 3.0%

Clallam County 11.4% 11.3% 6.1% 3.5% 1.8%

King County 5.2% 4.1% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7%

Pierce County 6.6% 5.4% 5.7% 3.3% 2.0%Spokane County 4.0% 7.2% 5.5% 3.7% 3.7%

Yakima County 3.1% 4.5% 5.1% 3.6% 2.2%Whatcom County 3.90% 5.50% 4.10% 1.80% 1.8%

Seattle 4.0% 3.5% 1.2% 2.7% 2.5%San Francisco 4.4% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 3.0%

Atlanta 16.4% 8.6% 9.3% 6.6% 6.4%Houston 15.9% 11.2% 7.2% 7.7% 7.7%

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Vacancy Rates and Rent Increases are Inversely Related

Source: American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, two year running average

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

An

nu

al r

ent

chan

ge

Vac

ancy

rat

e

Relationship between vacancies and rents - WA

Page 31: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Interventions to change behavior work less than half of the time

Try the intervention to improve efficiency, but focus on the majority of people for which the intervention does nothingSource: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0087089/

20%

Page 32: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

An intervention can be “effective,” pay for itself in reduced public costs, be the right thing to do to improve or save lives, AND…

Page 33: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

…NOT significantly improve income and related housing stability

1 Page 137 of this study: https://www.mdrc.org/sites/default/files/full_391.pdf …shows the most successful welfare to work program in the study (in Portland) increased annual income from $8,361 to $8,735

2 People with severe mental illness provided Supported employment increased average annual weeks worked from 4.8 to 12.1. Under an $11/hour minimum wage, it would translate to an increase from $2,112 annual income to a $5,324 annual income. Page 285: http://www.implementatiescan.nl/pdf/Psych%20Rehab%20Journal%20(2008).%20An%20Update%20on%20Randomized%20Controlled%20Trials%20of%20Evidence-Based%20supported%20employment.pdf

3 WSIPP earnings increase estimate of $13,521 (page 22) divided by working years, from baseline of non-high school graduate wage of $20,000/year http://www.wsipp.wa.gov/ReportFile/1547/Wsipp_Early-Childhood-Education-for-Low-Income-Students-A-Review-of-the-Evidence-and-Benefit-Cost-Analysis_Full-Report.pdf http://www.wsipp.wa.gov/TechnicalDocumentation/WsippBenefitCostTechnicalDocumentation.pdf

4 This analysis shows a particularly effective drug treatment intervention increases earned incomes by $2,331 over fifty years (about +$77 in annual earnings assuming 30 years of working post treatment): http://www.wsipp.wa.gov/BenefitCost/Program/297

5 Treatment for major depression increased earnings by $1,603 (about +$53 in annual earnings assuming 30 years of work post treatment). http://www.wsipp.wa.gov/BenefitCost/Program/494

6

"There are small differences in the effectiveness of teachers of high- and low-income students, on average. The average teacher of a low-income student is just below the 50th percentile of effectiveness based on value-added, while the average teacher of a high-income student is at the 51st percentile. Providing low-income students with equally effective teachers would not substantively reduce the achievement gap." https://ies.ed.gov/ncee/projects/evaluation/tq_distribution.asp

7 Charter schools are no more effective than regular schools https://ies.ed.gov/ncee/pubs/20104029/

8 Pages ES-5-6: https://www.mdrc.org/sites/default/files/full_485.pdf

9 "SHM did not lead more couples to stay together." https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/opre/shm2013_30_month_impact_reportrev2.pdf

10 https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/policy-basics-the-earned-income-tax-credit

11 Moving a low income family to a higher income neighborhood increase child income by 31% (from $11,270 in mid 20s, to $14,747 (+$3,477): http://www.nber.org/papers/w21156.pdf

DRAFT: Comparison of strategies to increase incomeAnnual income change

% increase in income Strategy

$374 4.5% Welfare to work 1

$3,212 152.1% Supported employment for people with severe mental illness 2

$294 1.5% Early childhood education for low income students (WSIPP data) 3

$77 0.3% Treatment for substance use disorder (contingency management) 4

$53 0.2% Treatment of major depression 5

$0 0.0% Providing low income students the same quality of teachers that high income students have 6

$0 0.0% Charter schools 7

$480 6.0% Job training and incentives for low income people in subsidized housing (Jobs-Plus) 8

$0 0.0% Marriage education for low income, married couples 9

$3,186 11% Earned income tax credit 10

$3,477 31% Moving a low income family to a high income area; impact on earnings of moved child in mid-20s 11

Page 34: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

WA Homeless System Performance Reports

County Report Card provides information by county on system-wide performance measures, including exits to permanent housing, returns to homelessness, length of time homeless, and cost per exit to permanent housing.

Year to Year Comparison table provides information by county on system-wide performance measures for each year. It also includes contextual information such as PIT Count results and rental vacancy rates. The interactive table allows you to see trends over time.

Page 35: Drivers of Homelessness - Jay Inslee · 2018. 8. 16. · Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

www.commerce.wa.gov

Tedd KelleherManaging [email protected]