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DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING PREDICTIVE COSTING MODELS TO ENHANCE YOUR MENU ENGINEERING ECRM The Foodservice EPPS Sheraton Atlanta Atlanta GA Atlanta, GA Monday, April 11, 2016 5:00 p.m. – 5:45 p.m. © 2016 Return On Ingredients LLC P.O. Box 2387 Westerville, Ohio 43086-2387 614.558.2239 Fax 614.340.7946

DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

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Page 1: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING

PREDICTIVE COSTINGPREDICTIVE COSTING

MODELS TO ENHANCE YOUR

MENU ENGINEERING

ECRM The Foodservice EPPSSheraton AtlantaAtlanta GAAtlanta, GAMonday, April 11, 2016 5:00 p.m. – 5:45 p.m.

© 2016 Return On Ingredients LLC P.O. Box 2387 Westerville, Ohio 43086-2387 614.558.2239 Fax 614.340.7946

Page 2: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Mark Kelnhofer

• BA in Accounting and Business Administration in 1993

• Masters in Business Administration (MBA) in 2005Masters in Business Administration (MBA) in 2005

• Ohio Dominican University, Columbus, Ohio

• Manufacturing Cost (1993 – 2013)

• Plastics, Lighting, Tire Repair Kits, Buses, RestaurantsPlastics, Lighting, Tire Repair Kits, Buses, Restaurants

• Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group (2002 – 2010)

• Return On Ingredients (2009 – Present)

• Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie V’s Pistacia Vera Bob Evans Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s, Pistacia Vera, Bob Evans Farms, Gordon’s Gourmet, Midwest Culinary Institute, Luce, Crème de la Crepe, Cooper’s Hawk Winery, Zauber Brewing Co., Hospitality USA

• The Ohio State University (2016 –Present), Lecturer, Food, Beverage, & Labor Cost Controls

Ohi U i i (2014 P ) Adj F l H i li • Ohio University (2014-Present), Adjunct Faculty, Hospitality Accounting

Page 3: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Mark Kelnhofer

• BA in Accounting and Business Administration in 1993

• Masters in Business Administration (MBA) in 2005Masters in Business Administration (MBA) in 2005

• Ohio Dominican University, Columbus, Ohio

• Manufacturing Cost (1993 – 2013)

• Plastics Lighting Tire Repair Kits Buses Restaurants• Plastics, Lighting, Tire Repair Kits, Buses, Restaurants• Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group (2002 – 2010)

• Return On Ingredients (2009 – Present)

• Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie V’s Pistacia Vera Bob Evans • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s, Pistacia Vera, Bob Evans Farms, Gordon’s Gourmet, Midwest Culinary Institute, Luce, Crème de la Crepe, Cooper’s Hawk Winery, Zauber Brewing Co., Hospitality USA

• The Ohio State University (2016 –Present), Lecturer, Food, Beverage, & Labor Cost Controls

• Ohio University (2014-Present), Adjunct Faculty, Hospitality Accounting

Page 4: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,
Page 5: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,
Page 6: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,
Page 7: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Paradigm Shift

Page 8: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group

4.2% = $ millions in savings

Return On Ingredients LLC   P.O. Box 2387   Westerville, Ohio 43086‐2387   614.423.4410   Fax 614.340.7946Return On Ingredients® and its logo are registered trademarks by Return On Ingredients LLC 

Page 9: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Other Food Manufactures…

• Restaurants

• Casinos

• Hotel & Lodging

• Sports Arenas

• Hospitals

Colleges and Universities• Colleges and Universities

• Catering and Banquet Centers

• Theme ParksTheme Parks

• Horse Race Tracks

• ….and others!

Page 10: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

The Missing Link

+

Cu

linm

ber

sary

Ar

Th

e N

um

rtsT

Page 11: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

ROI Methodology

Recipe costing is the base for manyRecipe costing is the base for manyother aspects of the operations.

Page 12: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

The Reality Is…

• Some restaurant operators do not phave any written or documented recipes.

• Some have recipes that are written are only for execution, not costing.

• The few that have costing in many cases do not take a manufacturing approachapproach.

• Menu pricing in some cases is not based on proper analysis and databased on proper analysis and data.

Page 13: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

What is in your control?

Knowing your costs Knowing your costs

Page 14: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

What is in your control?

Knowing your costs Knowing your costs

Establishing your selling price

Page 15: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Recipe Writing

Analyze and question the recipe to account Analyze and question the recipe to account for accuracy and the process. Ask questions!

Page 16: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Recipe Writing

Th i ld d lt i i d f ti !The yield or end result is required for costing!

Page 17: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Recipe Writing

The DETAILED ingredients are required for costing!

Page 18: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Weights & Measures

Portion control thro gh the se of • Portion control through the use of utensils (Tbsp tsp dishers spoodles etc )(Tbsp, tsp, dishers, spoodles, etc.)

• Accuracy of weights and measures is paramount.is paramount.

1 cup, Basil Leaves 1 cup, Granulated Sugar

0.2 ounce 6.8 ounces

Density: 2.5% Density: 85.0%

Page 19: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Weights & Measures

#10 cans• #10 cans

• Know the yield!

Brand A Brand B

Marinara SauceBrand A Brand B

116 ounces 106 ounces

Density: 120.8% Density: 110.4%

$8.00, $0.069/oz. $7.75, $0.073/oz., / , /

Page 20: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Published Articles

Page 21: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Batch Recipes & Yields

• Batch recipes should account for the • Batch recipes should account for the proper yield (what the result is) including known waste and the gprocess (labor)

• When the purchased product has p pchanged form in any way, a batch recipe should be created to account f h “H d h ”for the cost. “Hands on the process”.

• If you don’t account for the process d i ld l l t i and yields, your menu level costs in

most cases is understated!

Page 22: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Packaging

• Packaging is part of the raw g g pmaterial cost, similar to the ingredients

• Packaging includes:

• Bottles, lids

• Boxes

• Labels

• Wraps

Page 23: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

The Costing Problem

Ingredients

Page 24: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Commodities In The News

Food Business Newsfoodbusinessnews.net

June 10, 2015

Page 25: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Commodities In The News

Wall Street Journal, 12/08/2014

Page 26: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Commodity Research

Foodservice Council Council Executive Leadership RetreatA il 28 29 2015April 28-29, 2015

Maggie O’Neill(216) 649-7278moneill@[email protected]

Disclosures: Our Analysts certify that the views expressed in the research report(s) accurately reflect our personal views about the subjectcompany(s). Further, we certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations orviews contained in the research report(s). The analysts responsible for the preparation of this report have no ownership stake in this company.Cleveland Research Company provides no investment banking services of any type on this or any company.

Page 27: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Commodity Research

Foodservice Council Council Executive Leadership RetreatA il 28 29 2015April 28-29, 2015

Maggie O’Neill(216) 649-7278moneill@[email protected]

Disclosures: Our Analysts certify that the views expressed in the research report(s) accurately reflect our personal views about the subjectcompany(s). Further, we certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations orviews contained in the research report(s). The analysts responsible for the preparation of this report have no ownership stake in this company.Cleveland Research Company provides no investment banking services of any type on this or any company.

Page 28: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Commodity Research

Foodservice Council Council Executive Leadership RetreatA il 28 29 2015April 28-29, 2015

Maggie O’Neill(216) 649-7278moneill@[email protected]

Disclosures: Our Analysts certify that the views expressed in the research report(s) accurately reflect our personal views about the subjectcompany(s). Further, we certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations orviews contained in the research report(s). The analysts responsible for the preparation of this report have no ownership stake in this company.Cleveland Research Company provides no investment banking services of any type on this or any company.

Page 29: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Cost Modeling

Page 30: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Cost ModelingPredictive Costingg

Commodity Commodity price increase

Page 31: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Cost Management

Do we just “eat” the cost?j

Page 32: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Cost ModelingPredictive Costingg

Menu Item Highest Cost

Labor Cost Increase Highest CostIncrease

Page 33: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Our Challenges

Source: National Restaurant Association (NRA), 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast

Page 34: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Our Challenges

Source: National Restaurant Association (NRA), 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast

Page 35: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Prime Cost

Ingredients Labor

Page 36: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

The Costing Problem

The most dangerous The most dangerous h i h l h i h l phrase in the language phrase in the language

is “We’ve always done is “We’ve always done is, We ve always done is, We ve always done it this way.” it this way.” yy–– Admiral Grace HopperAdmiral Grace Hopper

Page 37: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Prime Cost

Page 38: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Prime Cost

Source: www.Bloomberg.com, “Here’s America’s New Minimum Wage Map”, 04/01/2015

Page 39: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Prime Cost

Page 40: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Total Cost

Ingredients Labor

Overhead

Page 41: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Total Cost Breakdown

Page 42: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Labor & Overhead Costs

• Your labor and overhead can be accounted for in the recipe

• Prep Time, Labor Routing• Time/motion studies (stopwatch)

• Time (hours) is loaded on every recipe

• Standard Labor (BOH) Rates• By store

• Includes wages and fringes

Page 43: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Direct (BOH) Labor Rate

• The direct (BOH) labor rate should ( )include the base rate plus any other additional fringes associated

h h lwith those personnel• Unemployment Insurance

Workers’ Compensation• Workers Compensation

• Social Security & Medical

• Health, dental and vision insurance plans

• 401(k) or other retirement plans

• Vacation & Sick Pay

Child• Childcare

Page 44: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Overhead Rates

• Based on budgeted expenses and

Predetermined Overhead Rate

g pdirect labor hours (BOH) by location.

Total Budgeted OverheadTotal Budgeted Overhead

Direct Labor BOH Hours = $0.000/hr.

OverheadRate

Page 45: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Overhead Rates

• FOH Labor & Fringes

Predetermined Overhead Rate

• FOH Labor & Fringes• Advertising & Marketing• Repair & Maintenance• Supplies• Training• Utilities Utilities • Communications• Landscaping• Research & Development• Research & Development• Occupancy• Taxes

BudgetedDirect Labor

HoursHours

Page 46: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Level Costing

Page 47: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Level Costing

Prime Cost

Page 48: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Level Costing

Total Cost

Page 49: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Beverage Costing

Wine & Liquor Bottle Conversions Keg Conversions

Beer, Wine and Liquor recipes can be account for.

Page 50: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Wine Glass Pour Costs

750ml bottle750ml bottle

Bottle cost $8.99fl. oz. 25.3613fl. oz. cost $0.354Pour cost $2.127Pour cost $2.127

Standard recipe pour = 6.0 fl. oz.

Item Description Qty UOM Unit Cost Extended

Estancia Pinot Noir 6.00 fl. oz. $0.354 $2.127

Direct Labor 0.025 hr. 12.00 0.300

Overhead 0 025 hr 34 97 0 874Overhead 0.025 hr. 34.97 0.874

Total Cost $3.301

Page 51: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Draft Beer Pour Cost

½ BBL½ BBL

Keg cost $89.00fl. oz. 1,984fl. oz. cost $0.0449Pour cost $0.718Pour cost $0.718Standard recipe pour = 16.0 fl. oz.

Item Description Qty UOM Unit Cost Extended

Sam Adams Lager 16.00 fl. oz. $0.045 $0.718

Direct Labor 0.017 hr. 12.00 0.204

O h d 0 017 h 34 97 0 595Overhead 0.017 hr. 34.97 0.595

Total Cost $1.517

Page 52: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Our Response

Source: National Restaurant Association (NRA), 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast

Page 53: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Engineering

The Guest

MENU

ReputationCommunity

MENU

BusinessFamilies

Employees

Page 54: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Engineering Team

Culinary

Purchasing

- Research & Development Chefs; Corporate Chefs; Brand Chefs

Restaurant Operators

- Director of Purchasing; Sourcing Issues

Accounting

Restaurant Operators

- General Manager; Executive Chef; Line Chefs

Accounting

Information Technology

- CFO, Cost Accounting

Information Technology

- Point of Sale (POS) Systems Maintenance

Page 55: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Engineering

Page 56: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Offering

Page 57: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Offering

Page 58: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Offering

Page 59: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Offering

Page 60: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Offering

165 165 menu menu items!items!

Page 61: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Offering

2323appetizers!appetizers!

Page 62: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Size Offering

24 variations/recipes!

Page 63: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Rationalization

M R i li iMenu Rationalization

The creation of a simplified menu for the sake of menu for the sake of

operational efficiency and t ti f tiguest satisfaction.

Source: Managing Service in Food and Beverage Operations, Fourth Edition, by Source: Managing Service in Food and Beverage Operations, Fourth Edition, by Ronald F. Cichy, Ph.D., NCE, CHA and Philip J. Hickey, Jr., ISBN-13: 978-0133097269

Page 64: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Engineering

Do they know their cost? Do they know their cost? What is their pricing strategy?

Page 65: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Engineering

Do they know their cost? What is their pricing strategy?

• 6 menu items at the same price point?• Pricing of $7 42?Pricing of $7.42?• Pricing of $12.06?

Page 66: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Engineering

Page 67: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Engineering

Question of the DayH i t ti lHow many intentional

not for profit restaurants not-for-profit restaurants do you know?do you know?

Page 68: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Engineering

FSR Magazine, By Kevin Hardy, December 2014, p. 71-72.

Page 69: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Menu Engineering

• Your menu(s) are what you are in ( ) ythe business to do.

• Types of Menus• Lunch

• Dinner

• Brunch

• Banquet

• Kids

• Pricing Structures• By Markets, Demographics

Page 70: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Wh • What are we engineering?

• Engineering sections of the menumenu

Page 71: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Wh • What are we engineering?

• Engineering sections of the menumenu

Page 72: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Wh • What are we engineering?

• Engineering sections of the menumenu

Page 73: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

Wh • What are we engineering?

• Engineering sections of the menumenu

Page 74: DRIVE MORE PROFITS USING PREDICTIVE COSTING … · • Bravo/Brio Restaurant Group Eddie VBravo/Brio Restaurant Group, Eddie V s’s , PistaciaVera Bob Evans Vera, Bob Evans Farms,

• What are we engineering?engineering?

• Engineering sections of the menu

• Similar dishes in different different categories should be

l danalyzed separately.

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• What are we engineering?

• Engineering sections of the menu

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• What are we engineering?

• Engineering sections of the menu

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www.jgilberts.com

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Cost-Volume-Profit (CVP)

The components that we will be analyzing:The components that we will be analyzing:

• Menu items in the category

Quantity/volume sold• Quantity/volume sold

• Selling Price

U it C tPRODUCT COSTS:I di t Di t • Unit Cost

• Cost Percentage

G M i P Pl

Ingredients, Direct Labor and Variable

Overhead

• Gross Margin Per Plate

• Contribution Margin PERIOD COSTS:Fixed Overhead

and Profit

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Cost-Volume-Profit (CVP)

The components that we will be analyzing:The components that we will be analyzing:

• Menu items in the category

Quantity/volume sold• Quantity/volume sold

• Selling Price

U it C tTOTAL COSTS:

I di t Di t • Unit Cost

• Cost Percentage

G M i P Pl

Ingredients, Direct Labor and Total

Overhead

• Gross Margin Per Plate

• Total Profit PROFIT

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My Famous Quote

“You cannot place You cannot place percents in your percents in your

pocket!”pocket!

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My Famous Quote

Change the focus from cost Change the focus from cost

percent to gross margin dollars

Menu Item Qty Sold

MenuPrice

Unit Cost

Cost % UnitGM $s

Pasta Fettucine 1 $11.99 $1.98 16.5% $10.01

Filet Mignon 1 $32.95 $12.49 37.9% $20.46

Which one would you rather have?Do we focus too much on cost percents?f p

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Loss Leaders

Items that are sold at a loss Items that are sold at a loss that will result in other menu items being sold at a profit.

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Loss Leaders

Items that are sold at a loss Items that are sold at a loss that will result in other menu items being sold at a profit.

Drive profits!Drive profits!

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Dog/Star Graphex

%

ty I

nd

e

StarHigh PI %, High GM $s

PlowhorseHigh PI %, Low GM $s

pu

lari

tPo

PuzzleLow PI %, High GM $’s

DogLow PI %, Low GM $s

Average Unit Contribution Margin $

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Dog/Star Graphex

%

ty I

nd

e

StarHigh PI %, High GM $s

PlowhorseHigh PI %, Low GM $s

pu

lari

tPo

PuzzleLow PI %, High GM $’s

DogLow PI %, Low GM $s

Average Unit Contribution Margin $

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Dog/Star Graph Flaws

Flaw #1Flaw #1Traditional Dog/Star reports only

l lanalyze entrees only.

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Dog/Star Graph Flaws

Flaw #1Flaw #1Traditional Dog/Star reports only

l lanalyze entrees only.

Flaw #2The calculation looks as unit

gross margin as a basegross margin as a base.

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Contribution Margin

Unit Contribution MarginUnit Contribution MarginUnit Contribution Margin =

S l P i l V i bl CSales Price less Variable Costs

Our Variable CostsIngredientsIngredients

Direct Labor

V i bl O h dVariable Overhead

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Dog/Star Graph Flaws

Flaw #1Flaw #1Traditional Dog/Star reports only

l lanalyze entrees only.

Flaw #2The calculation looks as unit

gross margin as a basegross margin as a base.

Flaw #3The graph plots all entrees together.

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Cost Volume Profit Example

Which menu item should be reviewed?

Menu Item MenuPrice

Unit Cost

Cost % UnitProfit $s

SALADS Menu in place for 6 months.

Chopped Salad $5.50 $0.43 7.8% $5.07

Wedge of Iceberg $5.50 $0.33 6.0% $5.17

Caesar Salad $5 50 $0 41 7 5% $5 09Caesar Salad $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09

House Salad $5.50 $0.48 8.7% $5.02

Averages $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09

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Cost Volume Profit Example

Which menu item should be reviewed?

Menu Item Menu Price

Unit Cost

Cost % UnitProfit $s

SALADS Menu in place for 6 months.

Chopped Salad $5.50 $0.43 7.8% $5.07

Wedge of Iceberg $5.50 $0.33 6.0% $5.17

Caesar Salad $5 50 $0 41 7 5% $5 09Caesar Salad $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09

House Salad $5.50 $0.48 8.7% $5.02

Averages $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09

If the decision was based on cost percent alone, the ‘House Salad’ would be reviewed for action. House Salad would be reviewed for action.

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Cost Volume Profit Example

Which menu item should be reviewed?

Menu Item Qty Sold

Menu Price

Unit Cost

Cost % UnitProfit $s

Total Profit $s

SALADS Menu in place for 6 months.

Chopped Salad 1,664 $5.50 $0.43 7.8% $5.07 $8,437

Wedge of Iceberg 1,183 $5.50 $0.33 6.0% $5.17 $6,116

Caesar Salad 1 508 $5 50 $0 41 7 5% $5 09 $7 676Caesar Salad 1,508 $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09 $7,676

House Salad 2,041 $5.50 $0.48 8.7% $5.02 $10,246

Averages $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09

If you would have chosen the ‘House Salad’, you would have reviewed the menu item driving the most dollars to cover fixed overhead costs and profit and possibly to cover fixed overhead costs and profit and possibly removing it from the menu.

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Dog/Star Calculation

Which menu item should be reviewed?

Menu Item Qty Sold

Menu Price

Unit Cost

Cost % UnitProfit

Total Profit $s

GM MM Rank

Ch d S l d 1 664 $5 50 $0 43 7 8% $5 07 $8 437 L H Pl h ?

SALADS Menu in place for 6 months.

Chopped Salad 1,664 $5.50 $0.43 7.8% $5.07 $8,437 L H Plowhorse?

Wedge of Iceberg 1,183 $5.50 $0.33 6.0% $5.17 $6,116 H H Star?

Caesar Salad 1,508 $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09 $7,676 H H Star?

House Salad 2,041 $5.50 $0.48 8.7% $5.02 $10,246 L H Plowhorse?

Averages $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09

MM = (1/4) * .7 = 17.5%; GM = $32,474 / 6,396 = $5.08Flaw: Gross margin rank for dog/star calculation is based on unit level only, not extended contribution based on unit level only, not extended contribution margin dollars.

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Dog/Star Calculation

Which menu item should be reviewed?

Menu Item Qty Sold

Menu Price

Unit Cost

Cost % UnitProfit

Total Profit $s

GM MM Rank

Ch d S l d 1 664 $5 50 $0 43 7 8% $5 07 $8 437 L H Pl h ?

SALADS Menu in place for 6 months.

Chopped Salad 1,664 $5.50 $0.43 7.8% $5.07 $8,437 L H Plowhorse?

Wedge of Iceberg 1,183 $5.50 $0.33 6.0% $5.17 $6,116 H H Star?

Caesar Salad 1,508 $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09 $7,676 H H Star?

House Salad 2,041 $5.50 $0.48 8.7% $5.02 $10,246 L H Plowhorse?

Averages $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09

MM = (1/4) * .7 = 17.5%; GM = $32,474 / 6,396 = $5.08Flaw: Gross margin rank for dog/star calculation is based on unit level only, not extended contribution based on unit level only, not extended contribution margin dollars.

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Dog/Star Graph

35.0%House Salad

25.0%

30.0%

dex

%7

.5% StarPlowhorse

Chopped Salad

Caesar Salad

15.0%

20.0%

arit

y I

n.7

= 1

7

17.5% Wedge Salad

5.0%

10.0%

Pop

ula

(¼)

*

.08

Dog Puzzle

0.0%

$5.00 $5.02 $5.04 $5.06 $5.08 $5.10 $5.12 $5.14 $5.16 $5.18

P

$5

Menu Item Unit Gross Margin $s$32,475 / 6,396 = $5.08

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Stellar / Cellar Graphex

%

Stellar The Bank

The Engineer• Reengineering of Menu Items

• Labor Process Improvements

ty I

nd

e Stellar - The Bank• Sacred Items• Most Profitable Items

p• Alternative ingredients• Menu placement

• Price increase possibility

pu

lari

t

The Push or Sell• FOH Suggestive Selling

The Cellar• New menu item opportunity

Po • FOH Contests

• Review price with value proposition; price too high?• Quality or flavor issue

• Exception: Unique menu item

Menu Item Total Profit $s

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Stellar / Cellar Graphex

%

Stellar The Bank

The Engineer• Reengineering of Menu Items

• Labor Process Improvements

ty I

nd

e Stellar - The Bank• Sacred Items• Most Profitable Items

p• Alternative ingredients• Menu placement

• Price increase possibility

pu

lari

t

The Push or Sell• FOH Suggestive Selling

The Cellar• New menu item opportunity

Po • FOH Contests

• Review price with value proposition; price too high?• Quality or flavor issue

• Exception: Unique menu item

Menu Item Total Profit $s

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Stellar / Cellar Graph

35.0%

House Salad

25.0%

30.0%

dex

%0

%

25.0%Chopped Salad

Caesar SaladThe

StellarThe Engineer

15.0%

20.0%

arit

y I

n =

25

.0

Wedge Salad

Stellar

10.0%

Pop

ula

(¼)

19

The Cellar The Push

0.0%

5.0%

$2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000 $11,000

P

$8

,11

Menu Item Total Profit $s$32,475 / 4 = $8,119

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Cost Volume Profit Example

Which menu item should be removed?

Menu Item Qty Sold

Menu Price

Unit Cost

Cost % UnitProfit $s

Profit $s

SALADS Menu in place for 6 months.

Chopped Salad 1,664 $5.50 $0.43 7.8% $5.07 $8,437

Wedge of Iceberg 1,183 $5.50 $0.33 6.0% $5.17 $6,116

Caesar Salad 1 508 $5 50 $0 41 7 5% $5 09 $7 676Caesar Salad 1,508 $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09 $7,676

House Salad 2,041 $5.50 $0.48 8.7% $5.02 $10,246

Averages $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09

The proper item to target to be reviewed is the ‘Wedge of Iceberg’of Iceberg .

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What are my options?

• Review the menu placement

• Reengineer an existing menu itemg g

• Review process

• Alternative ingredientste at e g ed e ts

• Price increase

• Remove the item and create a new itemRemove the item and create a new item

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Engineering a New Menu Item

Menu Item Qty Sold

Menu Price

Unit Cost

Cost % UnitProfit $s

Total Profit $s

Wedge of Iceberg 1,183 $5.50 $0.33 6.0% $5.17 $6,116

New Menu Item - $TBD $TBD > $5.17

When engineering the new menu item, attempt to create the item that will increase the average create the item that will increase the average gross margin on the item being removed. In this case - $5.17/menu item.

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Menu Placement

Menu Item Qty Sold

Menu Price

Unit Cost

Cost % UnitProfit $s

Total Profit $s

SALADS

House Salad 2,041 $5.50 $0.48 8.7% $5.02 $10,246

Chopped Salad 1,664 $5.50 $0.43 7.8% $5.07 $8,437

Field Greens NEW $5 75 $0 43 7 5% $5 32Field Greens NEW $5.75 $0.43 7.5% $5.32

Caesar Salad 1,508 $5.50 $0.41 7.5% $5.09 $7,676

Averages $5.56 $0.44 7.9% $5.12

When reading the menu, customers read from top to bottom of the category they are looking at. Place the menu items that drive the most contribution margin to the top. The two top menu items are my highest “The Bank” category items.

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Menu Placement & Eye Gaze

Source: Bowen & Morris, 1995; Hug & Warfel, 1991; Kelson, 1994; Scanlon,1998; Main, 1994; Miller, 1992; Panitz, 2000; National Restaurant Association, 2007;Kotschevar, 2008; Pavesic, D.V., 2011

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Menu Placement & Eye Gaze

Source: Glazer, Emily, Wall Street Journal, “The Eyes Have It: Retailers Now Track Shoppers’ Retinas”, 07/12/2012, p. B1

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Menu Placement & Eye Gaze

Source: Glazer, Emily, Wall Street Journal, “The Eyes Have It: Retailers Now Track Shoppers’ Retinas”, 07/12/2012, p. B1

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Menu Placement & Eye Gaze

Source: Livingston, 1978

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Menu Placement & Eye Gaze

ABSTRACT“Results offer an average menu scanpath and suggests Results offer an average menu scanpath … and suggests traditional menu “sweet spots” may not exist.”

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Front of House (FOH) Sales

• If the menu layout is structured • If the menu layout is structured with the most profitable items on top, it should not be a secret!p,

• FOH personnel can play an active roll in suggesting to the gg gcustomers items that drive profit!

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Front of House (FOH) Sales

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Front of House (FOH) Sales

FRIENDLINESS & PRODUCT KNOWLEDGEFRIENDLINESS & PRODUCT KNOWLEDGE

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Where do I start?

Step 1: Purchased Items Step 1: Purchased Items

Step 2: Batch Recipes Ingredient level only

Step 3: Serving Recipes

Step 4: Time Standards

Step 5: Labor and Overhead Rates Step 5: Labor and Overhead Rates

Step 6: Performance Benchmarking

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Manage By Excel (MBE)

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Manage By Excel (MBE)

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Systems

• MBE (Manage By Excel)( g y )

• Systems & Software (do your Systems & Software (do your research!)• Features (i.e.

recipes, production, ordering,

• invoicing, menu engineering, etc.)

• Service

• Cost

• Your overall plan (short and long term)

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hThe

Top 10 Top 10

kTakeaways

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The Top 10 Takeaways

Takeaway #1Takeaway #1

Ensure that your recipes costs y pare accurate before the menu

engineering process engineering process. Understated costs translates to

overstated profit.

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The Top 10 Takeaways

Takeaway #2Takeaway #2

Use historic data combined with pricing and costs to assist in future menu decisions Data future menu decisions. Data

should match day part in print.

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The Top 10 Takeaways

Takeaway #3Takeaway #3

Your menu is too

important to guess at! G i i t d h!Guessing is not good enough!

There is too much as risk.There is too much as risk.

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The Top 10 Takeaways

Takeaway #4Takeaway #4

Unique printed menus should q pbe engineered separately.

Engineer any menu that is in Engineer any menu that is in print or displayed.

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The Top 10 Takeaways

Takeaway #5Takeaway #5

Engineer sections of menu. g fDo not engineer the

complete menu in whole complete menu in whole. Decisions should be made

within each menu category.

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The Top 10 Takeaways

Takeaway #6Takeaway #6

“You cannot place percents in p pyour pockets!”. Shift the

focus from cost percents to focus from cost percents to cost volume profit methods. Look at total profitability!

Money in the bank!Money in the bank!

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The Top 10 Takeaways

Takeaway #7Takeaway #7

Make decisions not only based yon the passion and emotion of the menu item but also of the menu item – but also

empirical data. Be methodical.

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The Top 10 Takeaways

Takeaway #8Takeaway #8

The menu layout and yplacement of menu items does matter Place higher does matter. Place higher contribution margin items on top in descending order.

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The Top 10 Takeaways

Takeaway #9Takeaway #9

This is your call to action!y

Start the process. If you do t h d t ti not have adequate time or

skills, get some professional , g p fassistance!

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The Top 10 Takeaways

Takeaway #10Takeaway #10

To ensure success –

The bottom line is

know your costs!

Plan for success!Plan for success!

Be proactive, not reactive!p ,

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Cost Control

ACCURATE RECIPE

Audit to Improve ffRECIPE

COSTINGEfficiencies

MENU ENGINEERING

Benchmarking (Actual v.

Theoretical)

JIT Production &

Ordering(Dynamic

P )Pars)

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Results

• Quality• Consistency• Efficiency Improvements• DisciplineDiscipline• Cash• Profits

• Waste• Waste• Inventory Levels• Costs

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Testimonial

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Published Articles

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Published Articles

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F&B Cost Group

Over 6,100+ members from over f h ld150+ areas of the world!

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Reference Books

Note: This reference is NOT comprehensive. You need to practice the costing methods discussed in this presentation.costing methods discussed in this presentation.

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Reference Books

Note: This reference is NOT comprehensive. You need to practice the f p pcosting methods discussed in this presentation.

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Reference Books

Note: This reference is NOT comprehensive. You need to practice the f p pcosting methods discussed in this presentation.

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The App

Search “Restaurant Institute”Search Restaurant Institute$1.99

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Reference Books

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Cost Management Summits

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Questions & Answers

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