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(Dreaming about) The Future of Travel
Bob Kabli VP E-Commerce & MobileEmirates Airline
9th October 2014
Introduction
Future Trends: Global
Emirates & the aviation industry
Future Trends: Travel
Summary
Agenda
Section 1: Introduction
Times are changing, we all need to adapt!
But are we thinking far enough ahead?
Born and raised in London
An airline family….
Joined BA in 1998
Joined Emirates to set up Strategic Pricing in 2003
Moved to E-Commerce role in 2011
11 years in sunny Dubai
3 small children, hectic but fun
Football career over, golf career about to start
About me
Section 2: Future Trends - Global
Section 2: Future Trends - Global
Technology
Demographics & Age
Data & PersonalisationContextual/relevant/intelligentMachine learning/Target
Robotics & 3D PrintingOver half Google’s last acquisitions have been robotics
Technology (1)
Where are online consumers of the future?
Asia is > than combined Europe, Americas & MEAnd online doesn’t only mean computers….
Technology (2)
The human brain can hold approx. 5 TB of data, the internet has 5 million TB
Google has indexed less that 0.05% of the internet.
To reach 50 million users:Radio: 38 yearsTV : 13 yearsInternet: 5 years
Today, 69% of children aged 2 to 5 can use a mouse but only 11% can tie their shoelaces
Technology (3)
Who are the global ‘electronic’ commerce leaders?
: bigger cash balance than US Gov. : e-books outsell paper and hard backs : now sell more fixed than auction goods : mkt value > P&G on NYSE; 279 mn active users : shipped > products than Amazon or Ebay?
What has Bob bought online?MusicClothesGreeting CardsPizzaBarbie Playhouse
Technology (4) The Multi Screen World
Meet Alysha
It’s now all about the online ECOSYSTEM
Demographics / Age
Millennial’s and Gen X/Y/Z is all good but….
People are living longer
Seems like everyone is forgetting the above
3D Printing
Unprecedented growth in digital activity - across all ages, nationalities, gender etc – the internet is a great leveller
Data – hyper analytical
Divergence of devices – tablets, smartphones, laptops, netbooks, watches, glasses
Convergence of needs – seamless & personalized access across the online world
We need to identify what matters, ignore what doesn’t
Global trends - recap
Section 3: Emirates and
the aviation industry
Airline Industry – Past Flows
Global Traffic Streams in the 80’sEuropean & US carriers dominated global air traffic
Airline Industry – Present FlowsGlobal Traffic Streams are changing, fast…..Asian & Middle Eastern carriers entering the markets and shift the traffic via new hubs
Airline Industry - Diversifying
Air travel is becoming more geographically diverse….
5.5 billion people live within 8 flight hours of Dubai Growing to 7.8 billion in 2030
Emirates is right in the middle of the future!
Africa
China
Europe
906
1463
2005 2030
728 698
2005 2030
1,453
1,970
2005 2030
1,316 1,446
2005 2030
South Asia
314
474
2005 2030
Middle East
589743
2005 2030
Asia Pacific
Airline Industry – The Future
Emirates – Stat AttackMaximisation of network profit
• 140 destinations in 6 continents
• All Emirates aircraft are wide body: 220+ seats
• Flights range from 40mins to 17 hours in duration
• 17 flights a day non-stop to the UK
• LHR – 5 A380’s daily (14/76/427 seats on each)
• 54 A380s currently in operation
• Strong focus on Africa, 22 destinations
• Nearly all destinations served daily, year round
• Truly global
Emirates – The Future (Vision)Maximisation of network profit
• 200+ aircraft still on order including 50+ more
A380’s
• So the focus must be on growth, growth, growth
• But must maintain the business model (cost,
efficiency, hub)
• Continue to recruit high calibre individuals
• Continue to emphasise on brand and product
• Ensure scalability of our hub - terminal, service
etc
• Don’t underestimate competition or new business
models
The hub is criticalThe world’s single largest terminal dedicated to only 1 airlineCurrent capacity 75 million passengers/year(LHR=69million)Concourse 3 opened 01 Jan 13, exclusively for Emirates and worlds first dedicated A380 concourse – 20 standsNew airport (DWC) now openThe future of airports, a full topic by itself!
Concourse 1 Concourse 2
Emirates – The Future (Dubai Airport)
5.5 billion people within 8 hours of Dubai (7.8 bn in 2030)6.3 billion people within 16 hours of Dubai (8.2 bn in 2030)How much potential is out there?
10 % of the 5.5 billion passengers travel 550 million20 % of the 550 million passengers travel via a Gulf Hub 110 millionAll these passengers have a return ticket 220 million50 % of these passengers fly on Emirates 110 million
Passengers FleetYear 2009 27.4 million 135Potential 110 million 550
• Sounds crazy? Or does it?
Emirates – The Future (Potential)
Today’s travel landscape
This entire environment did not even exist 20 years ago, what
does that mean for 2030?
What keeps Bob up at night
This entire environment did not exist 20 years ago either!
Section 4: Future Trends - Travel
Overview
The internet has changed the aviation industryDirect BookingSelf Service – e-tickets / mobile boarding passesOn Board Wi-fiIdentification/Security for fast track at airportWhat next?
We are not thinking airline - we think travel
Mobile – will it change the world?
1. New Business Models
Rent, Share, Subscribe
Can the airline industry learn/adapt from the above?
2. Modes of transport
Air:Long-haul low cost
Stand up travel
No Pilots / Self Drive
Airships
TrainsLittle Red R.I.P
Hyper-loop
Teleportation
Example: Hyperloop
3. Wearable Technology
4. The Travel Ecosystem
How can we harness the travel ecosystem?
Emirates Suitcases: no-lose guarantee
Google Glass – gimmick…or not?
5. Community travel
Fully immersive - VR
Experience Emirates without flying
Travel / Organic Groupsfor what you wantwith who you wentall pay how you wantall add extras as you want
Predictive/Anticipatory offers
Section 5: Summary
Harder to innovate/change when you are already successful
But has to be done
Incremental vs. transformational innovation
Keep anticipating or you will get run over…..Any industry – Kodak, Nokia, Blockbuster, YahooCross ‘industry’ – Disney Cruises, Samsung Kitchens, Amazon GroceryLeft Field – Dyson Fan, iPad, The Palm, Netflix, SpotifyTravel: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Tesco, Google?
Summary
