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Draft of 12 June 2018: will reorder & cut slides!
Japan: Transport & Energy– “Kei” aren’t OK –
GERPISA Sao Paulo June 12, 2018
Michael SmitkaWashington and Lee University
Lexington, VA 24450 [email protected]
Japan: Energy is Imported
• Zero petroleum
• ≈ 5% Natural Gas
• Zero coal (was major export late 1800s!)
• Almost no nuclear• Industry shut down after 3/11 Tohoku Earthquake & Tsunami
èEnergy security: price, access (4+ ongoing Middle East wars, 2x swings in price)
èBalance of Payments not a major concern (in contrast to India)
èSupporting growth not a constraint (energy use declining)
Two prongs
• Diversify mix and sourcing of energy• LNG imports ↑ with closing of nuclear power (30% electricity)• Geography: Persian Gulf central
• Demand-side policy• Transportation
• Demand• High fuel taxes• “Kei” car demand-side policy: differential taxation by vehicle type
• Supply-side • Technology forcing: fuel cell vehicles• Public transportation
Challenge
• Car ownership exploded after 1980• Into early 1970s suburban houses built without parking• First car-based shopping malls only 1990s
• Today car-based lifestyle for suburban, rural population• Central Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto remain exceptions
• Fleet already efficient in relative terms• BUT consumers want larger vehicles
• Electricity generated with imported hydrocarbons• Almost no “green” energy: shutdown of nuclear power
Bottom Line
• Changing vehicle efficiency does little for energy security• Industry no longer energy-intensive• Households face high electricity prices so already economize• Pushing expensive alternative drivetrains NOT good policy
• Main impact EVs is substitution of imported gasoline by imported LNG• Subsidizing / improving public transport IS good policy
• Politics works against this• Pushing (punishing?!) the auto industry is politically attractive• Pressure to close ”unprofitable” train and bus lines ⟹ car demand ↑
• Public transport policy has many players (MOT vs METI vs local govt, private and semi-public providers) with divergent interests
Is Japan representative of other countries?
•No, if ultimate sources of energy are “Green”• India, Poland “black” = coal• EVs not green
•Brazil a good counter example• Sensible energy policy is to push ethanol• EVs less green than existing vehicles• 75g CO2 / km already below future EU goal of 99g/km
P 134 white paper Growth in Energy Consumption over last 45 years
Transportation
Households
Transportation
Household
Commercial Commercial
IndustrialIndustrial
Office Bldgs, Retail
Total
P 135 ENERGY USE BY SECTOR: Transportation, Household, Commercial, Industrial
Transportation
Households
Commercial
Industrial
FY
Transportation Energy Use 10^10 kcal���� ������������
Fiscal Year Total Private Cars Bus & Rail
Air (inclfreight)
Vehicle Freight
Share Cars
1965 � 3.5 2.4 0.4 7 44%
1970 16 10 2.6 1 13 65%
1973 22 15 2.9 1.5 16 71%
1975 24 17 2.9 1.8 16 71%
1980 30 23 2.8 2.6 19 76%
1985 34 27 2.8 2.7 20 78%
1990 44 36 3.3 3.2 26 80%
1995 54 45 3.5 4.2 28 83%
2000 58 50 3.3 4 27 85%
2005 59 50 3.5 4.5 26 85%2010 55 46 3.6 4.5 24 84%
2015 50 40 3.5 4.8 25 82%Source: Table 4 (3), pp 130-131
JAMA dataMIJ
various years
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Total Vehicle Stock in Japan
Trucks
Cars
Other incl buses
JAMA data
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Passenger Car Stock in Japan: Population 110-125 million
MiniFullCompact
Summary: Survey of Vehicular Fuel Consumption �� �����
Vehicle typeTotal Fuel
Consumption (1,000 liters)
Distance Driven (1,000 km)
Fuel Efficiency (liters/km) Miles per gallon
Business
Regular & special purpose 5 930 43 034 0.138 17.1 Kei vehicles 45 331 483 610 0.094 25.1 Bus & taxi 15 980 151 493 0.105 22.5 ��� 67 241 678 137 0.099 23.8
FreightRegular vehicle 14 770 96 996 0.152 15.5 Compact Vehicle 189 228 1 803 147 0.105 22.5 Kei vehicle 486 083 6 129 349 0.079 29.9
Passenger
Bus & special purpose 33 237 201 173 0.165 14.3 Regular vehicle 1 134 654 10 220 761 0.111 21.3 Compact Vehicle 1 018 378 12 121 586 0.084 28.1 Hybrid Vehicle 399 635 6 575 112 0.061 38.7 Kei vehicle 1 096 295 15 149 757 0.072 32.8
Non-gasoline: Diesel Total 2 197 012 9 913 835 0.222 10.6 LPG Total 131 495 708 187 0.186 12.7
CNG Total 4 705 19 023 0.247 9.6 ����������
Passenger-kms millions
Fiscal
YearTotal
Private
CarsBus Rail Air Share Cars Bus Rail Air
1965 414.5 63 80.1 255.5 3 15% 19% 62% 1%1970 700.5 278 102.9 288.5 9.3 40% 15% 41% 1%
1973 775.1 312 111.7 312.9 16 40% 14% 40% 2%
1975 801.4 329 110.1 323.8 19.1 41% 14% 40% 2%
1980 887.9 414 110.4 314.5 29.7 47% 12% 35% 3%
1985 997.2 511 104.9 330.1 33.1 51% 11% 33% 3%
1990 1295.4 727 110.4 387.5 51.6 56% 9% 30% 4%
1995 1385.4 806 97.3 400.1 65 58% 7% 29% 5%
2000 1417.3 852 87.3 384.4 79.7 60% 6% 27% 6%
2005 1409.2 833 88.1 391.2 83.2 59% 6% 28% 6%
2010 1347.2 784 85.7 393.5 73.8 58% 6% 29% 5%
2015 1382.8 781 79.8 427.5 88.3 56% 6% 31% 6%Source: Tab 4(4), 132-133
Energy Intensity kcal/passenger km kcal/ton-km
Passenger Freight
Fiscal Year Total Private Cars Bus Rail Air Total Vehicle Air
1965 191 561 113 58 1507 649 2057 95191970 227 373 115 48 1026 593 1347 89511973 280 492 133 47 833 597 1593 80101975 297 518 129 45 870 700 1732 83131980 335 544 121 48 795 657 1514 76311985 340 520 119 46 705 673 1376 66881990 342 490 133 47 550 652 1373 51781995 391 560 155 49 569 695 1382 56622000 410 582 157 50 435 682 1245 53012005 419 599 171 51 473 667 1137 51792010 407 584 189 51 543 620 985 49422015 356 516 199 46 483 680 1211 4471
Source: Table 4(5), 134-135
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
20162017
New Registrations
Car Standard Car Small Car Mini Truck Total
Fuel efficiency: Top 10 kei carsRank Firm Model
Sales 9
months 2017
Rated fuel
efficiency l/km
eNenpi user
datamiles/gal
1 Honda N-BOX 157,795 27 15 35.4
2 Nissan Dayz 113,641 26.8 16 37.8
3 Daihatsu Tanto 112,696 28 16 37.8
4 Daihatsu Move 105,037 31 18 42.5
5 Suzuki Wagon R 88,385 33.4 19 44.8
6 Suzuki Spacia 82,208 32 18 42.5
7 Daihatsu Mira 74,054 35.2 18 42.5
8 Suzuki Alto 71,128 37 21 49.6
9 Honda N-WGN 60,666 29.4 18 42.5
10 Suzuki Hustler 58,546 32 19 44.8
Total / Average 924,156 31.18 17.8 42.0
Fuel efficiency: Top 10 regular cars
Rank firm ModelSales 6 months
2017Rated fuel
efficiency l/kmeNenpi userdata miles/gal
1 Toyota Prius 78,707 40.8 25 592 Nissan Note 68,441 37.2 20 473 Toyota Aqua 62,537 38 23 544 Toyota C-HR 60,627 30.2 21 505 Honda Freed 51,652 27.2 18 426 Honda Fit 48,488 37.2 23 547 Toyota Vitz 44,005 34.4 16 388 Toyota Sienta 42,837 27.2 18 429 Toyota Voxy 39,988 23.8 17 40
10 Nissan Serena 37,503 17.2 15 35Total / Average 534,785 31.3 20 46
Kei are “green” but aren’t the best!Rank firm Model Sales 6 months 2017 Official Test Cycle l/km eNenpi User Data miles/gal
1 Toyota Prius 78,707 40.8 25 59
2 Toyota Aqua 62,537 38 23 54
3 Honda Fit 48,488 37.2 23 54
4 Toyota C-HR 60,627 30.2 21 50
5 Suzuki Alto 71,128 37 21 49.6
6 Nissan Note 68,441 37.2 20 47
7 Suzuki Wagon R 88,385 33.4 19 44.8
8 Suzuki Hustler 58,546 32 19 44.8
9 Daihatsu Move 105,037 31 18 42.5
10 Suzuki Spacia 82,208 32 18 42.5
11 Daihatsu Mira 74,054 35.2 18 42.5
12 Honda N-WGN 60,666 29.4 18 42.5
13 Honda Freed 51,652 27.2 18 42
14 Toyota Sienta 42,837 27.2 18 42
15 Toyota Voxy 39,988 23.8 17 40
16 Toyota Vitz 44,005 34.4 16 38
17 Nissan Dayz 113,641 26.8 16 37.8
18 Daihatsu Tanto 112,696 28 16 37.8
19 Honda N-BOX 157,795 27 15 35.4
20 Nissan Serena 37,503 17.2 15 35
Kilometer Driven by Vehicle Type km millionsFreight Passenger
Fiscal Year Total Kei Share Total Kei Share1965 47 11 23% 39.9 3.8 10%1970 103 22 21% 145.4 25.7 18%1973 106 �� 19% 187.8 27.2 14%1975 100 16 16% 191.9 20 10%1980 144 29 20% 249.9 15.8 6%1985 180 �� 33% 280.7 14.2 5%1990 226 85 38% 353.5 15.8 4%1995 237 85 36% 431.5 40.7 9%2000 231 75 33% 492.4 72.4 15%2005 216 74 34% 506.5 106.1 21%2010 205 67 33% 503.1 134.8 27%2015 201 76 38% 519.8 160.6 31%
Table 4 (7), 137 MLIT, Annual Report on Vehicle Transportation
Sectoral Energy Consumption
Total Mfg Commercial Residential Passenger Freight
1965 109 63 8 11 8 11
1970 211 126 16 18 16 18
1973 265 154 24 24 22 22
1975 251 138 24 26 24 22
1980 265 133 26 30 30 25
1985 271 125 29 37 34 25
1990 323 143 36 42 44 30
1995 358 151 44 51 54 32
2000 376 163 47 53 58 33
2005 368 156 47 57 59 31
2010 342 149 44 55 55 28
2015 316 142 39 47 49 28
Source: Table 3(4), p 40-41 of EDMC Handbook. 10^10kcal
Drawing from: METI, Energy Balance Tables.
Energy Consumption SharesMfg Commercial Residential Passenger Freight
1965 58% 7% 10% 7% 10%1970 60% 8% 9% 8% 9%1973 58% 9% 9% 8% 8%1975 55% 10% 10% 10% 9%1980 50% 10% 11% 11% 9%1985 46% 11% 14% 13% 9%1990 44% 11% 13% 14% 9%1995 42% 12% 14% 15% 9%2000 43% 13% 14% 15% 9%2005 42% 13% 15% 16% 8%2010 44% 13% 16% 16% 8%2015 45% 12% 15% 16% 9%
Freight Km-tons �������Fiscal Year Total Vehicles Share
1965 171.7 34.2 20%1970 309.2 95.2 31%1973 364.1 98.6 27%1975 321.1 90.5 28%1980 384.6 124.8 32%1985 371.6 143.4 39%1990 461.1 188.6 41%1995 466.7 202.5 43%2000 479.1 214.2 45%2005 463.8 228.4 49%2010 449.2 247.8 55%2015 409 206 50%
Source: Table 4 (4), 132-133
