DRAFT GENERAL PLAN OF NATIONAL ENERGY. PEN-English (Pusdatin).pdfPusat Data dan Infromasi Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral RUEN MODEL (1/2) Structure of Model and Software Prediction

Pusat Data dan Infromasi Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral

DATA AND INFORMATION CENTER OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES

MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES

DRAFT

GENERAL PLAN OF

NATIONAL ENERGY

Delivered at the Annual Meeting of the National Energy Management

Jakarta, 3 Desember 2012


National Energy Council Duty :

•To design and formulate policy of national energy (KEN)

•To stipulate General Plan of National Energy (RUEN)

Government Duty :

•To set National Energy Policy (KEN) with Parliament’s approval

•To prepare RUEN based on KEN

BACKGROUND (1/2)

Local Government Duty

To prepare General Plan of Local Energy (RUED) based on RUEN

To set RUED in form of Local Government Regulation

• National Energy Policy (KEN) is a policy of management for establishment of energy independence

and national energy security with the principal of equitable, sustainable and environmentally friendly.

• National Energy General Plan (RUEN) is an energy management plan in a region at the national, provincial, or district/city level is Energy Plan (RUEN) is an energy management plan in a region at the national, provincial, or district / city

Based on Law No.30/2007 on Energy


BACKGROUND (2/2)

Current Status

•Guidelines for Preparation of RUEN and Document of RUEN is in progress

phase, waiting for KEN to issue

•RUEN is included as one of Action Plans of MEMR observed by UKP4 in

2012. Achievement up to B09 is Blue.

•To obtain input and opinion in the preparation of RUEN, series of meeting

have been carried out with :

–Related Ministries and stakeholders

–Local government in corridor of Sumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Jawa, Bali-

Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku-Papua


IN PROGRES PREPARTION OF RUEN

GUIDELINES AND RUEN (1/2)

• Guidelines of RUEN, a manual for implementation in term of RUEN

preparation in charge of technical and non technical aspect

Guideline Systematic of RUEN

General Rules; Objective and Target; Preparation of RUEN/RUED-TP/RUED-TK; Closing

• RUEN is the elaboration and implementation plan of KEN in the form

of target achievement phasing of KEN

Systematic of RUEN

Introduction; Present and future energy condition; Vision and mission of energy management;

Policy and strategy of energy management; Closing .


IN-PROGRES PREPARATION OF RUEN

GUIDELINES AND RUEN (1/2)

N

O. DATE PROCESS OF PREPARATION OF RUEN GUIDELINES

RE

MA

RK

1. 9 Feb

2010 Discussion on Guidelines for Preparation of RUEN with Unit within MEMR

2. 17 June

2010,

Minister of MEMR sends letter to President RI, concerning on Request for

Approval of Preparation on Draft of President Regulation

3. 21 Oct

2010

Secretary of Cabinet RI states that the preparation of President Regulation

requires consideration on the completion of Draft of KEN

4. 25 July

2012

FGD in term of discussion of President Regulation Draft for Guidelines of RUEN

Preparation, together with Secretary of Cabinet , Ministry of Law and Human

Right as well as MEMR units NO

. DATE PROCESS OF PREPATION OF RUEN MODEL

remar

k

1. ... 2012 UKP4 sets RUEN as one of indicators or assessment from MEMR for year 2012.

2. 1 May

2012,

Center for Data and Information has sent letter to Head of Planning Bureaus, on report of the

implementation of President Instruction on Acceleration Implementation of National Development Priority

Year 2012. (B04)

Blue

3. 3 July 2012



Year 2012 (B06)

Blue

4. 4 Oct. 2012



Year 2012 (B09)

Blue


RUEN MODEL (1/2) Structure of Model and Software

Prediction of energy need Supply of primary energy Emission calculation Investment need


PDB Growth Average 8-9% per annum up to

2025

Population

Growth

Average 0,99% per annum up

to 2025

Size of

Household

3.2 persons per household in

year 2025

Distribution of

Population

68% (urban) : 32% (rural) in

2025

• General Administration

Bureau (BaU)

Without any intervention in term

of energy policy

• KEN

With intervention of policy at

supply side and energy need

in fulfilling national target

BASIC PARAMETER SCENARIO

MODEL (2/2) RUEN


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025

Juta TOE

Non energy use

Others

Commercial

Transportation

Households

RESULT (1/6)

Final Energy Need per Sector

Final Energy need in 2025 to reach at 406,15 MTOE, increase averagely 6,9% per year

Industry becomes biggest user sector which is 59%, transportation (21%), household (12%), the rest

comersial sector (3%), other sector (3%) and non –energy use (2%).


RESULT (2/6) Final Energy Need per Energy Type

The need of fuel oil, coal, gas and electricity cumulatively will increase 3,4 times. The need of new and

renewable energy predicted increase 1,4 times during 2010-2025

Fuel oil still remained as dominant energy reaches to aroud 29,5%, coal 21,3%, and gas 20,6%

Electricity need per capita in 2025 reaches to 1.893,3 Kwh per capita. Target of KEN 2.500 Kwh per capita


RESULT (3/6)

Capacity of generation in 2025 predicted to achieve 126,75 GW

Capacity of generation of EBT predicted to increase up to 34,6% in 2025 if the available

geothermal and water resources can be optimized

Capacity of oil generation in 2025 diminish around 3 GW

Penambahan Kapasitas Pembangkit Listrik

44

48

16

19

2025

PLT EBT= New Renewable Energy Power Plant Batubara= Coal Gas = Gas Minyak= Oil

Increasing Capacity for Power Plant


RESULT (4/6)

Production of power to increase from 170 TWH in 2010 to become 585 TWH

Growth of power production in average 8,6% per annum

The need of coal for power plant to achieve 49,5% of total need of fuel 154.2 million TOE

Electricity Production based on Generation type Composition of Generation Based on Fuel


RESULT (5/6)

In year 2020, potency of CO2 Emission reduction predicted to achive 29,9 million ton, less than set target for energy sector in National Action Plan

of Greenhouse CO2 Emission Reduction or RAN GRK at 39 million ton.

35,6

4

Potency of CO2 Emission Reduction


RESULT (6/6)

RUEN 2025

In 2025, primary energy supply predicted to

achieve at 522,7 MTOE with composition of :

-Minyak 153 MTOE

-Gas 122 MTOE

-Batubara 163 MTOE

-EBT 115 MTOE

KEN

In 2025, KEN has target of primary energy

provision to achive at 400 MTOE with

composition of :

-Minyak (oil) 100 MTOE

-Gas (gas) 80 MTOE

-Batubara (coal) 120 MTOE

-EBT (new renewable energy) 100 MTOE


CONCLUSION

• Final energy need in 2025 predicted to increase up to 2,7 times compared today, with average growth 6,9% per annum

• Domination of oil in final energy to decrease at 29,5% in 2025. The role of coal and gas to increase at 21,3% and 20,6%

• At Power plant, role of coal and geothermal will be very dominant up to 84% of total need of fuel in generation sector .

• The use of new and renewable energy is required to increase by increasing the use of non-conventional technology such as nuclear, coal liquifaction, coal gasification

• To reduce oil role in energy mix, it is expected by developing mass transport, development of fuel gas, biofuel, and creating conducive investment climate for geothermal


Documents

DRAFT GENERAL PLAN OF NATIONAL ENERGY. PEN-English (Pusdatin).pdfPusat Data dan Infromasi Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral RUEN MODEL (1/2) Structure of Model and Software Prediction