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Dr. Tsuneyuki Morita’s Contributions to IPCC
Nebojša NakićenovićInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
(IIASA) and Vienna University of Technology
…On behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)…
Morita-san’s generosity, tireless efforts, and superb work … on climate change, development and modeling issues have made a significant contribution to the community of which he was so important a part. We already feel his absence heavily.
…On behalf of the Board of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment…
We will miss Dr. Morita enormously. His scientific contributions to understanding and responding to global change as well as his personal impact on the community of scientists working to help make the world a better place will never be forgotten.
…On behalf of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)…
We at IIASA have lost a long-time devoted friend and supporter, who has not only had close professional ties with the Institute, but has also shared close friendship with some of our scientists. We will truly miss Professor Morita and will cherish the memory of this exceptional man.
NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003
NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Climate change scenariosClimate change scenarios
Robust technology/policy measuresRobust technology/policy measures
LongLong--term Development Scenariosterm Development Scenarios
Stabilization scenarios (PostStabilization scenarios (Post--SRES)SRES)
GHG emission scenarios (SRES)GHG emission scenarios (SRES)
NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003
Carbon Dioxide EmissionsCarbon Dioxide EmissionsG
loba
lCar
bon
Dio
xide
Em
issi
ons
(ind
ex,1
990=
1)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1900 2000 2100
Median
25%
5%
75%
95%
1990 range
20501950
Non
-inte
rven
tion
Non
-cla
ssif
ied
Inte
rven
tion
NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003
Carbon Emissions: Scenarios Carbon Emissions: Scenarios and Stabilization Profilesand Stabilization Profiles
25
20
15
10
5
01800 1900 2000 2100 2200
S450
GtC
S550
S650
WGIWRE
Stabilizationat 450, 550, 650ppmv CO2
S450S550S650
trajectory
B2
B1
A2
35 Gt in 2100
A1B
A1FI (A1C & A1G)
A1T
2000
2070
NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003
Global Mean Temperature ChangeGlobal Mean Temperature ChangeSix illustrative SRES scenarios, full range Six illustrative SRES scenarios, full range
s
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 20030
5
10
15
20
25
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
GtC
A2-750 ASF A2-750 MESSAGEA1FI-750 MESSAGE A1FI-750 MESSAGEA1FI-750 MiniCAM A1B-750 PETROA2-750 PETRO A1B-650 AIMA1B-650 MARIA A1T-650 MARIAB2-650 MARIA A1B-650 MESSAGEA1FI-650 MESSAGE A1FI-650 MESSAGEA1FI-650 MiniCAM A1B-650 PETROA2-650 PETRO A1B-550 AIMA2-550 AIM B1-550 AIMB2-550 AIM A1FI-550 AIMA2-550 ASF A1B-550 IMAGEA1B-550 LDNE A2-550 LDNEB1-550 LDNE B2-550 LDNEA1FI-550 LDNE A1T-550 LDNEA1B-550 MARIA A1T-550 MARIAB1-550 MARIA B2-550 MARIAA1B-550 MESSAGE A2-550 MESSAGEB2-550 MESSAGE A1FI-550 MESSAGEA1FI-550 MESSAGE A1T-550 MESSAGEA1B-550 MiniCAM A2-550 MiniCAMB1-550 MiniCAM B2H-550 MiniCAMB2L-550 MiniCAM A1FI-550 MiniCAMA1B-550 PETRO A2-550 PETROB1-550EA W orldScan B1-550-DR W orldScanB2-550-EA W orldScan A1B-550-EA W orldScanA1B-550-DR W orldScan A2-550-EA W orldScanA2-550-DR W orldScan A1B-450 AIMB1-450 IMAGE A1T-450 MARIAA1B-450 MARIA B1-450 MARIAB2-450 MARIA A1B-450 MESSAGEA1FI-450 MESSAGE A1FI-450 MESSAGEA1T-450 MESSAGE B1-450 MiniCAMA1F1-450 MiniCAM A1B-450 PETROA2-450 PETRO B1-450-DR W orldScanB1-450-EA W orldScan B2-450-EA W orldScanB2-450-DR W orldScan A1B-450-EA W orldScanA1B-450-DR W orldScan A2-450-EA W orldScanW RE550 W GI550SRES-Minim um SRES-Max im umDatabase Max Database Min.
Maximum inliterature
Minimum in literature
Maximumin SRES
Minimumin SRES
Global Carbon Dioxide EmissionsGlobal Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Nakicenovic IPCC 2001
Global Carbon Dioxide EmissionsGlobal Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Nakicenovic IIASA 2003
NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003
NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003
NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003
Our dear friend and colleague is gone, leaving a void in our community and in our lives that can never be filled...
He will live forever in our hearts, in our thoughts and in our scientific work ‒ and we’ll continue to miss him every day!