20
Dr. Tsuneyuki Moritas Contributions to IPCC Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Vienna University of Technology

Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    2

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

Dr. Tsuneyuki Morita’s Contributions to IPCC

Nebojša NakićenovićInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

(IIASA) and Vienna University of Technology

Page 2: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

…On behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)…

Morita-san’s generosity, tireless efforts, and superb work … on climate change, development and modeling issues have made a significant contribution to the community of which he was so important a part. We already feel his absence heavily.

Page 3: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

…On behalf of the Board of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment…

We will miss Dr. Morita enormously. His scientific contributions to understanding and responding to global change as well as his personal impact on the community of scientists working to help make the world a better place will never be forgotten.

Page 4: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

…On behalf of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)…

We at IIASA have lost a long-time devoted friend and supporter, who has not only had close professional ties with the Institute, but has also shared close friendship with some of our scientists. We will truly miss Professor Morita and will cherish the memory of this exceptional man.

Page 5: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003

Page 6: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Climate change scenariosClimate change scenarios

Robust technology/policy measuresRobust technology/policy measures

LongLong--term Development Scenariosterm Development Scenarios

Stabilization scenarios (PostStabilization scenarios (Post--SRES)SRES)

GHG emission scenarios (SRES)GHG emission scenarios (SRES)

Page 7: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Page 8: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003

Carbon Dioxide EmissionsCarbon Dioxide EmissionsG

loba

lCar

bon

Dio

xide

Em

issi

ons

(ind

ex,1

990=

1)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1900 2000 2100

Median

25%

5%

75%

95%

1990 range

20501950

Non

-inte

rven

tion

Non

-cla

ssif

ied

Inte

rven

tion

Page 9: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003

Carbon Emissions: Scenarios Carbon Emissions: Scenarios and Stabilization Profilesand Stabilization Profiles

25

20

15

10

5

01800 1900 2000 2100 2200

S450

GtC

S550

S650

WGIWRE

Stabilizationat 450, 550, 650ppmv CO2

S450S550S650

trajectory

B2

B1

A2

35 Gt in 2100

A1B

A1FI (A1C & A1G)

A1T

Page 10: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

2000

Page 11: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

2070

Page 12: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003

Page 13: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

Global Mean Temperature ChangeGlobal Mean Temperature ChangeSix illustrative SRES scenarios, full range Six illustrative SRES scenarios, full range

s

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Page 14: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 20030

5

10

15

20

25

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

GtC

A2-750 ASF A2-750 MESSAGEA1FI-750 MESSAGE A1FI-750 MESSAGEA1FI-750 MiniCAM A1B-750 PETROA2-750 PETRO A1B-650 AIMA1B-650 MARIA A1T-650 MARIAB2-650 MARIA A1B-650 MESSAGEA1FI-650 MESSAGE A1FI-650 MESSAGEA1FI-650 MiniCAM A1B-650 PETROA2-650 PETRO A1B-550 AIMA2-550 AIM B1-550 AIMB2-550 AIM A1FI-550 AIMA2-550 ASF A1B-550 IMAGEA1B-550 LDNE A2-550 LDNEB1-550 LDNE B2-550 LDNEA1FI-550 LDNE A1T-550 LDNEA1B-550 MARIA A1T-550 MARIAB1-550 MARIA B2-550 MARIAA1B-550 MESSAGE A2-550 MESSAGEB2-550 MESSAGE A1FI-550 MESSAGEA1FI-550 MESSAGE A1T-550 MESSAGEA1B-550 MiniCAM A2-550 MiniCAMB1-550 MiniCAM B2H-550 MiniCAMB2L-550 MiniCAM A1FI-550 MiniCAMA1B-550 PETRO A2-550 PETROB1-550EA W orldScan B1-550-DR W orldScanB2-550-EA W orldScan A1B-550-EA W orldScanA1B-550-DR W orldScan A2-550-EA W orldScanA2-550-DR W orldScan A1B-450 AIMB1-450 IMAGE A1T-450 MARIAA1B-450 MARIA B1-450 MARIAB2-450 MARIA A1B-450 MESSAGEA1FI-450 MESSAGE A1FI-450 MESSAGEA1T-450 MESSAGE B1-450 MiniCAMA1F1-450 MiniCAM A1B-450 PETROA2-450 PETRO B1-450-DR W orldScanB1-450-EA W orldScan B2-450-EA W orldScanB2-450-DR W orldScan A1B-450-EA W orldScanA1B-450-DR W orldScan A2-450-EA W orldScanW RE550 W GI550SRES-Minim um SRES-Max im umDatabase Max Database Min.

Maximum inliterature

Minimum in literature

Maximumin SRES

Minimumin SRES

Page 15: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

Global Carbon Dioxide EmissionsGlobal Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Nakicenovic IPCC 2001

Page 16: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

Global Carbon Dioxide EmissionsGlobal Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Nakicenovic IIASA 2003

Page 17: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003

Page 18: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003

Page 19: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA & VUT 2003IIASA & VUT 2003

Page 20: Dr. TsuneyukiMorita s Contributions to IPCC...S650 WGI WRE Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 S450 S550 S650 trajectory B2 B1 A2 35 Gt in 2100 A1B A1FI (A1C & A1G) A1T 2000 2070

Our dear friend and colleague is gone, leaving a void in our community and in our lives that can never be filled...

He will live forever in our hearts, in our thoughts and in our scientific work ‒ and we’ll continue to miss him every day!