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Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting the Future of Quality Higher Education

Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

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Page 1: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Dr. Stephen W. HarmonProfessor and Chair, Learning Technologies

Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology

Forecasting the Future of Quality Higher Education

Page 2: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

The STEEP Forecasting Framework

Page 3: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Exponential Growth of the Digital Infrastructure

Computing (processing)

Communication

(bandwidth)

Storage Content

Moore’s Law Fiber Law Disk Law Community Law(Metcalf’s Law)

Doubles every18 months

Doubles every9 months

Doubles every12 months

2n(where n=

# of People)

Page 4: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Processing

Page 5: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

2014

Page 6: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 7: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Photonic Computing

2.4 micr

ons

Page 8: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Bandwidth

Page 9: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 10: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Information

Page 11: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Megabyte

Gigabyte

Terabyte

Page 12: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Terabyte

Petabyte

Exabyte

Page 13: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Exabyte

Zettabyte

Page 14: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 15: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 16: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

2011 - 1.8 ZETTABYTES

Dawn of Time to 2003 – 5 Exabytes

Now 5 Exabytes Every Two Days

2015 - 1 ZETTABYTE Every Two Days

Page 17: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Neuroscience

Page 18: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 19: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

khanacademy.org

Shibata, K., Watanabe, T., Sasaki, Y., & Karats, M. (2011). Perceptual Learning Incepted by Decoded fMRI Neurofeedback Without Stimulus Presentation. Science. Vol. 334, pp. 1413-1415

Ramirez, S., Liu, X., Lin, P.A., Suh, J., Pignatelli, M., Redondo, R., Ryan, T.J., Tonegawa, S. (2013). Creating a False Memory in the Hippocampus. Science. Vol. 341, pp. 387-391.

Page 20: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Method and system for generating sensory data onto the human neural cortex

AbstractA non-invasive system and process for projecting sensory data onto the human neural cortex is provided. …

United States Patent #6,729,337

Sony Corporation

Page 21: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 22: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Grau C, Ginhoux R, Riera A, Nguyen TL, Chauvat H, et al. (2014)

Conscious Brain-to-Brain Communication in Humans Using Non-Invasive Technologies.

PLoS ONE 9(8): e105225.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0105225

Page 23: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Now only

$259!!!

Page 24: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Augmented Intelligence

Page 25: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 26: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 27: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 28: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 29: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 30: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

“We are currently preparing students for jobs that don’t yet exist, using technologies that haven’t yet

been invented, in order to solve problems we don’t even know are

problems yet. “

- Ray Kurzweil

Page 31: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

How do we respond to this era of incredible change?

Page 32: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

William Huskisson11 March 1770 – 15 September 1830

Page 33: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 34: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

The Iron Bridge

Page 35: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Major Paradigm Shifts in Society*

Agrarian Industrial Information Knowledge

Transportation Horse Train Plane & Car Diverse-Electrons v. Atoms

Family Extended Nuclear Single Parent Global Village

Business Family Bureaucracy Team Distributed Network

Education One Room School House

Current System Current

System

Current System

*Adapted from Reigeluth, 1994

Page 36: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 37: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 38: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 39: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Click to edit the outline text format

Second Outline Level Third Outline

LevelFourth Outline Level Fifth Outline Level

Sixth Outline Level

Seventh Outline Level

Eighth Outline Level

Ninth Outline LevelClick to edit Master text styles Second level

Third level Fourth level

» Fifth level

Routine Expertise

Adaptive Expertise

Hatano & Osuro, 2003

Page 40: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Click to edit the outline text format

Second Outline Level

Third Outline LevelFourth

Outline Level Fifth

Outline Level

Sixth Outline Level

Seventh Outline Level

Eighth Outline Level

Ninth Outline LevelClick to edit Master text styles Second level

Third level Fourth level

» Fifth level

Adaptive vs. Routine Expertise

http://galen-frysinger.com/graphics/chef.jpg

http://www.clipartguide.com/_small/0041-0503-1618-2128.jpg

Page 41: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Schwartz, D. L., Bransford, J. D., & Sears, D. (2005). Efficiency and innovation in transfer. In J. Mestre (Ed.), Transfer of Learning (pp. 1-51). Greenwich, CT: Information Age Publishing. 

Efficiency

Innovation

NovicesFrustratedNovices

RoutineExperts

AdaptiveExperts

Page 42: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 43: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Present

Time

Future

Possible

Plausible

Probable

Preferable

Cone of Plausibility

Wildcard

Page 44: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 45: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 46: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

How Can an Institution Prepare for the Future?

Page 47: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

A Model for Future-proofing an Institution

Harmon, S.W. & Dennison, T.W. (in press). Futureproofing: Learning, Technology, and the Path to the Unknown. In N. Rushby & D. Surry. Wiley Handbook of Learning Technology, Oxford, U.K. John Wiley & Sons.

Page 48: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Dimensions of Strategic Preparation

Harmon, S.W. & Dennison, T.W. (in press). Futureproofing: Learning, Technology, and the Path to the Unknown. In N. Rushby & D. Surry. Wiley Handbook of Learning Technology, Oxford, U.K. John Wiley & Sons.

Page 49: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Making a Difference

Page 50: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

Making A Difference

0.2

0.6

1 1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3 3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

5 5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

7 7.4

7.8

8.2

8.6

9 9.4

9.8

02

46

810

12 GRADUATION AND pELL rATES OF

uRBAN rESEARCH universities

Pell Rate

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

Georgia State

Page 51: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 52: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 53: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting
Page 54: Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting

“Education is our passport to the future, for tomorrow belongs to the

people who prepare for it today.” ― Malcolm X.