Dr. Sedigheh TorabiMinistry of Energy

“Head of Policy Making and Water Allocation Sector”

Khajou Bridge – Isfahan (Constructed 17th Century)

Climate Change Initiative Beijing: Asian G-WADI meeting 17 July 2010

Climate Change Initiative Beijing: Asian G-WADI meeting 17 July 2010

Table of ContentGeneral OverviewWater Governance in IranMOE Organizational ChartClimate Change in IranClimate Change InitiativeGeneral Four Years PlanNext G-WADI Meeting

I.R. of IRAN

Area:1.648

million km2

Population:70

millionNo of provinces:

30Average Rainfall: 271 mmNeighboring Countries:

Afghanistan,

Pakistan, IraqTurkmenistan,

Azerbaijan,

Armenia, Turkey Arab States in

Persian GulfLanguage: Farsi, Azerbaijani, Kurdish, …

What happened in the past?

First Book: “the Excavation of Hidden Water” Karadji – about 1000 years ago

50 dams more than 200 yrs old

Quanat: the famous underground water system Which backs to at least

2500 years ago

Population growth

1961

2021

2001

100

66.0

24.3

Unit: Million people

Iran Climatological ConditionIran Climatological Condition

Over dry region5.35 %

Dry desert region 29%

Dry desert region 29%

Semi-Arid area%20

Mediterranean region5%

Semi- humid region4.3%

Semi- humid region4.3%

Humid region6.3%

Humid region6.3%

Very humid region5.3%

Very humid region5.3%

Renewable water resources of Iran are around 25% of the world mean value. Renewable water resources of Iran are around 25% of the world mean value.

Sum: 84.5%

Sum: 15.5%

Water Resources

Water Cycle in Iran

Available Fresh Water Resources 130

Total of Available Surface Water 92

Internal Surface Water Resources 92

Transboundary Resources 13

Direct Infiltration from Rainfall 25Total Infiltration (including direct infiltration from rainfall) 38

Infiltration from Surface Water 13

Total Water Resources 105

Return Water from Consumption 29

Total 159

BCMBCM

Renewable Fresh Water

YearAnnual Renewable Water availability

(cubic meter/capita)

1956 7000

2001 2000

2021 1300

Water Consumption at a Glance

1

98.6

1.3 1.2

92.8

6 3

86

7

0102030405060708090

100

Per

centa

ge

1961 2001 2021

Industry Agriculture Domestic

85 BCM

A Glance to Water Consumption

Surface Water

42 BCM

Ground Water

50 BCM

1.1 BCM

6 BCM

Water Consumption Vision

Population

100 million

Consumption increase due to urbanization and improved welfare

Water Demand

5.1~3.12000

2021 WD

WD

We need 30 BCM moreIn the Normal Situation

Water Consumption Vision

Water Demand

123 BCM

Water Supply

3.12000

2021 WS

WS

Challenges:

1- Excess withdrawal of ground water resources.

2- Shortage of environmental water supply of aquaticbodies.

3- Not considering the effects of new water resources development projects on downstream operational and under construction projects.

4- Lack of equality between economical development of upstream and downstream regions of basins.

Excess withdrawal of ground water resources.

1961

2007

Population

24.3

Unit: Million people

70

Forbidden Plains

0

246

Unit: Number

Number of Plains = 609

Groundwater Depletion

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

grou

ndw

ater

Lev

el (

m)

Year

200

m

350

450

400

2010

Land Subsidence as a result of ground water

overdraft

Restricted plains

Ministry Of EnergyMinistry Of Energy: Water Supply : Water Supply and Allocation; Wastewater Affairsand Allocation; Wastewater Affairs

Ministry Of Jihad-AgricultureMinistry Of Jihad-Agriculture: as : as most important water user (92%) most important water user (92%)

Ministry Of HealthMinistry Of Health: Control of : Control of drinking water drinking water

Department Of EnvironmentDepartment Of Environment: : Protection of water bodies Protection of water bodies

Water Governance in IRANWater Governance in IRAN

Ministry of Energy

Ministry of Energy

Central selection

board

Bureau of public

awareness & international

objects

Security office Ministry officials

Water & Wastewater macro planning

Bureau

Water & Wastewater macro planning

Bureau

Engineering & Enviormental

standards Bureau

Water &Wastewater Operation &

Conservation Bureau

Water Economy & Operation

Optimization Bureau

Water Allocation Sector

Planning Sector

Budget Sector

Bureau of operation

assessment

Bureau of operation

assessment

Deputy of Planning & Economic objects

Deputy of Research & Human resources

Deputy of Water & Wastewater

Deputy of Electric energy

Deputy of Conservation&

Parliament relations

Regional Water

authorities

MOE Organizational Chart

Vulnerability and Adaptation (Objectives)

Identification of vulnerable sectorsFinding answers for questions regarding climate change impacts.Providing the necessary information for making country’s development programs…National Climate Change Office, december 2009National Climate Change Office, december 2009

Climate Change in IRANClimate Change in IRAN

LARS-WG

MGGICC- SCENGEN

PRECIS

This study was conducted by the National Center for Climatology of IRMO.

Vulnerability and Adaptation:Climate modeling and change

study

National Climate Change OfficeNational Climate Change Office

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

1976 1983 1990 1997 2004 2011 2018 2025 2032 2039

د(رایگ

سانته

جرما)دد

climate(1976-2005)

future(1976-2005)

Inf(2010-2039)

Increasing 0.5 degrees of Centigrade in mean annual temperature

LARS WG Results2010-2039

National Climate Change OfficeNational Climate Change Office

Tem

per

atu

reT

emp

erat

ure

Spatial Distribution of Temperature )2010-2039(

National Climate Change OfficeNational Climate Change Office

National Climate Change OfficeNational Climate Change Office

Spatial Change in Average Rainfall 2020

9% reduction in average rainfall

Average temperature will increase by 0.5 C

Threshold of heavy rainfall will be increased, therefore the flood index will be increased

Drought and number of dry days will be increased

Summary of LARS WG Results

National Climate Change OfficeNational Climate Change Office

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

د (را

یگسانت

ه رج

دا )دم

ت را

غییت

IS92a

EMCONST

IS92aEXT

IS92b

IS92C

IS92D

IS92E

IS92F

K_1PC2000

K_1CON1

K_NOMORE

SRESA1

SRESA2

SRES98B1

SRES98B2

WRE 450

WRE550

WRE650

MEAN

UPPER%95

LOWER%5

National Climate Change OfficeNational Climate Change Office

MAGICC-SCENGEN Results2000-2100

Ch

ang

e in

Tem

per

atu

reC

han

ge

in T

emp

erat

ure

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

)%ش )

ارت ب

راییتغ

IS92a

EMCONST

IS92aEXT

IS92b

IS92C

IS92D

IS92E

IS92F

K_1PC2000

K_1CON1

K_NOMORE

SRESA1

SRESA2

SRES98B1

SRES98B2

WRE 450

WRE550

WRE650

MEAN

UPPER%95

LOWER%5

National Climate Change OfficeNational Climate Change Office

Ch

ang

e in

Rai

nfa

ll %

Ch

ang

e in

Rai

nfa

ll %

MAGICC-SCENGEN Results2000-2100

Summary of Climate Change Models:

National Climate Change OfficeNational Climate Change Office

9% reduction in average rainfall

Average temperature will increase by 0.5 C

36% reduction in average runoff of Karun and Karkhe Basins

Reduction in average runoff in 25 basins

Increase in average runoff in 5 basins (max 12%)

Ultimate goal:

Understand impacts of climate change to plan for adaptation/mitigation

Step 1:

Define a baseline for the study + appropriate criteria for CC including shift in changing climate phases

Step 2:

Observe carefully signs of CC impacts

Step 3:

Identify the root causes of changes

Step 5:

- Devise of an adaptation plan for each of the G-WADI basins

- Identify immediate measures for CC adaptation

- Costs associated with climate change and its adaptation

Step 4:

Modeling , climate projection, risk assessment

Climate Change initiativeClimate Change initiative

General 4 years Plan:

Year 1: Getting started and review of available sourceso Engage with partnerso Identify resourceso Review existing strategieso  Collection of available data

General 4 years Plan:

Year 2: Baseline Definitiono Collection of field datao Defining a baseline for climate

comparison and devising climate change criteria

o Developing a comprehensive report on observed changes at the basin level

 

General 4 years Plan:

Year 3: Modeling Phaseo Identifying root causes of observed

changeso Scenario development and future climate

modelingo Cost analysis to estimate costs associated

with the predicted climate change

General 4 years Plan:Year 4: Devising an Adaptation Plan

o Devise of a CC adaptation plan for each G-WADI Basin

o Recommending immediate, mid-term and long-term measures for adaptation to the CC in each basin

o Recommendations for formulation of the national CC adaptation plan

A workshop shall be held at the end of each year to discuss achieved results and for coordination among different units.

Next G-WADI Meeting:

Hosting a G-WADI event in Iran in 2011

Thanks forYour

Kind Attention1