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Dr. Sebastian Gorka Strategy and Current Wars – Who is the Enemy?. Disclaimer. The views herein expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the US Department of Defense or any other US Government Department or Agency. MESSAGE. America has lost its capacity to think strategically - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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National Security StrategyCongressional Lecture Series
21st Oct 2011
Dr. Sebastian Gorka
Strategy and Current Wars – Who is the Enemy?
Disclaimer
The views herein expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the US Department of Defense or any other US Government Department or Agency
MESSAGE
America has lost its capacity to think strategically We no longer prioritize based upon national interests If you want to understand the enemy, read what he
writes and listen to what he says Al Qaeda / AQAM is a product of decades and even
centuries of ideological evolution Do not obsess on violence – AQ is scary but those
who use the indirect, non-kinetic approach (e.g. the Muslim Brotherhood) may be even more dangerous
Both the violent terrorists and non-violent jihadists have the same aim: destroying our country and its
values
SIMPLE, Correct?
Has our Strategy Changed?
GWOT V
Long War /CIST
V
CVE / OCOV
Global Counterinsurgency?
Strategy 101
Sun Tzu (6-5th Century BC)
Know the Enemy AND yourself
Carl von Clausewitz (1780 -1837)
The first responsibility of the commander
is to know what kind of war he is fighting
Who are We? What is Our
Strategy?USG COUNTERTERRORISM MODEL
KILL/CAPTURE
DISRUPT
CONDITIONS EXPLOITED BY TERRORISTS
Training, Recruiting, Logistics, Travel, Finances, Leadership, Ideology,
Communication, Implement CT Legislation
Social Injustice, Lack of Political IntegrationEconomic Inequality, Religious Persecution,
Ideological Extremism
Kinetic, intelligence
Terrorists think globally, organize regionally, act locally
15%
20%
65%
Hard Power
Soft Power
Who is the Enemy? AQ’s Evolution
pre AQ: MAK – Abdullah Azzam’s Arab Service Bureau
Gen 1: commonality – AfghanistanGen 2: commonality – BosniaGen 3: commonality – Chechnya/Georgia
AQ 4.0= ??
The shift to ideology – “Global Jihad” – Self-Declaring Groups?
Who is the Enemy? II• Krauthammer: “”Existential Threat”
• Powell (etc.): Terrorism
• Bush: Islamofacism?
GEN Petraues: DoD FM 3-24 (COIN)
Kilcullen et al: Global Insurgency??
What is al Qaeda?
Important dates:
1918 -1924 End of Caliphate1945 -1948 Creation of Israel1979 (1499) Soviet Invasion of AFG, Iranian Revolution AND
the Siege of Mecca1988 Soviet Withdrawal AFG1990/1 Fall of USSR / Gulf War I
The Power of Words
The World as Heretical, to be cleansed forcibly by Islam which is a “Revolutionary Party”Sayyed QUTB
Jihad as a Global BrandAbdullah AZZAM
We can Destroy the Zionist-Crusaders as we did the Soviet Union. All Muslims must fight. ZAWAHIRI
War’s Objective is Allah’s Sovereignty. Terror is our main weapon in Jihad. Brig S.K. Malik
TAKE-HOME
AQ is just a small part of a much larger and older movement
That movement has a plan to destroy our system using ALL means – not just violence
This includes political and economic warfare and very sophisticated information operations
This war is potentially more dangerous than even the Cold War
We need a REAL Strategy
We Knew More 7 Years Ago
Our enemy “is sophisticated, patient, disciplined and lethal.”
“the institutions charged with protecting our national security did not understand how grave this threat could be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it.”
“In short, the United States has to help defeat an ideology, not just a group of people.
The 9/11 Commission Report
Two Enemies, One Goal
Non-Violent Jihadists: e.g. Muslim Brotherhood
Violent Jihadists:
AQAM
Sharia Law /Caliphate
From: S. Gorka and D. Kilcullen: An Actor-Centric Theory of War – JFQ 60, 2011
The New Threat Environment: Not so
New!
Dr. Sebastian L. v. Gorka
Tel. 703 300 5014
QUESTIONS?
