Dr Sean Weaver, Principal, Carbon Partnership sean@carbonpartnership

Dr Sean Weaver, Principal, Carbon Partnership [email protected]

Global Issues: A Forest Story From An Educator-

PractitionerEnviroschools National HuiRotorua, November 2012

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.carbon-partnership.com/

Global Issues: A Forest Story From An Educator-

Practitioner

Cut greenhouse gas emissions

Learn to live with a different climate

Be an international role model



Historical carbon emissions with two potential pathways for the future

Currently

predicted path

Historical Emissions

Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations

Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations

Flat path

2012 2062

Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear 14

7

1962



Currently

predicted path



Flat path

2004 2054

Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear 14

7

1954





2004 2054

Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear 14

7

1954









Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear

14

7

2012 2062


Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear

14

7

2012 2062

Currently

predicted path



Flat path

7 Billion Tons carbon per year over 50 years

Emissions to be avoided

The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge

into seven monumental tasks

Stabilisation Triangle


Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear

14

7

2012 2062

Currently

predicted path



7 ‘Wedges’ are needed to build the


1 ‘Wedge’

Avoids 1 Billion tons of carbon emissions

per year by 2062



Flat path






Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear

14

7

2012 2062

Currently

predicted path



7 ‘Wedges’ are needed to build the


1 ‘Wedge’

Avoids 1 Billion tons of carbon emissions

per year by 2062



Flat path






Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear

14

7

2012 2062

Currently

predicted path





Flat path


Energy efficiency


Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear

14

7

2012 2062

Currently

predicted path





Flat path


Fossil Carbon

Management

Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear

14

7

2012 2062

Currently

predicted path





Flat path


Biofuels, Hydrogen


Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear

14

7

2012 2062

Currently

predicted path





Flat path


Renewable electricity

generation


Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear

14

7

2012 2062

Currently

predicted path





Flat path


Greater share of renewables


Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear

14

7

2012 2062

Currently

predicted path





Flat path


50 fold expansion of wind energy


Bill

ions

of t

ons

carb

on e

mitt

ed p

er y

ear

14

7

2012 2062

Currently

predicted path





Flat path


Forest Management


Forest Management

REDD+

This is what I do

REDD+

Introduction To REDD+What is ?

What’s new about REDD+ ?What can we do ?

What’s the big deal ?

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation




CO2

Carbon Removals

Carbon Stored

Carbon Emissions

Sugar

Oxygen

CWood

CO2


CO2

CO2

“Tap”“Drain”

Carbon Removals

Carbon Stored

Carbon Emissions

Forest Carbon


CO2

CO2

“Drain”“Tap”

Carbon Removals

Carbon Stored

Carbon Emissions

Forest Carbon


CO2

“Drain”CO2

“Tap”

Carbon Removals

Carbon Stored

Carbon Emissions

Forest Carbon


CO2

CO2


Carbon Removals

Carbon Stored

Carbon Emissions

Forest Carbon


CO2

CO2


Carbon Removals

Carbon Stored

Carbon Emissions

Forest Carbon


CO2

CO2


Carbon Removals

Carbon Stored

Carbon Emissions

Forest Carbon


CO2

CO2


Carbon Removals

Carbon Stored

Carbon Emissions






Cropland Forest

-10

-5

0

5

10 300

250

200

150

1000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Temp

CO2ppm

Age 100,000 years b.p.

Climate and atmospheric history of past 400,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica

400Current CO2 concentration

500CO2 concentration at 2100 (lower end projections)

-10

-5

0

5

10 300

250

200

150

1000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Temp

CO2ppm


Climate and atmospheric history of past 400,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica



-10

-5

0

5

10 300

250

200

150

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Temp

CO2ppm



500

CO2 concentration at 2100 (lower end projections)

-10

-5

0

5

10 300

250

200

150

1000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Temp

CO2ppm




600

700

CO2 concentration at 2100 (upper end projections)

Global Warming

Safe level for CO2

350ppm

Impacts

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification

Biodiversity decline

International economy

Population growth

World oil prices

Food security

Cross cutting issues:

Safe level for CO2

350ppm

Global Warming

Impacts

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification



Population growth

World oil prices

Food security


Safe level for CO2

350ppm

Global Warming

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 2007) (AR5 due 2013)

Three volumes:

1. Scientific Basis

2. Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability

3. Mitigation of Climate Change

Each Volume has:

• Summary for policy makers

• Technical summary

• Full Report

There is also a Synthesis Report

http://www.ipcc.ch/

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Impacts

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification



Population growth

World oil prices

Food security


Safe level for CO2

350ppm

Global Warming

Impacts

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification



Population growth

World oil prices

Food security


Safe level for CO2

350ppm

Global Warming

Dr Bob Watson, co-Chair MEA

and establish the scientific basis for actions needed to

enhance the conservation and sustainable use of

ecosystems.

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification


Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Called for by United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan in 2000 in his report

to the UN General Assembly, We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in

the 21st Century. Kofi Annan, ex UN Secretary GeneralThe goal was to assess the

consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being

http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification



Ecosystem Services

“Environment” : a place for the production of ecosystem services.The flow of these services is dependent on the health of the ecosystems that produce them.

"Human activity is putting such strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet's ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted.”

“The challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting increasing demands for their services can be partially met but these involve significant changes in policies, institutions and practices that are not currently under way.”

Key Findings


Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification



Population growth

World oil prices

Food security


Ecosystem Services

“Environment” : a place for the production of ecosystem services.The flow of these services is dependent on the health of the ecosystems that produce them.

Ecosystems = ecological infrastructure requiring investment and maintenance

Ecological infrastructures often produce services at a lower cost than engineering infrastructures

TEEB

The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity

TEEB helps to justify public and private sector investments in looking after the place

E.g. Payment For Ecosystem Services


http://216.92.158.141/

http://216.92.158.141/

Impacts

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification



Population growth

World oil prices

Food security


Safe level for CO2

350ppm

Global Warming

Impacts

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification



Population growth

World oil prices

Food security


Safe level for CO2

350ppm

Global WarmingDebt Financing

Modern banks have a 10:1 liability to cash

reserve ratio (or worse)

$100 deposit generates $1,000 in loans

Over 90% of the money in circulation is borrowed

The global economy must grow by the interest

rate for the financial system to remain stable

But I’m not

growing

http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse

Impacts

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification



Population growth

World oil prices

Food security


Safe level for CO2

350ppm

Global Warming

Impacts

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification



Population growth

World oil prices

Food security


Safe level for CO2

350ppm

Global WarmingApprox 5 born every second

Approx 2.5 die every second

Approx 2.5 added to World Population every second

6,000 every hour

150,000 every day

64 million every year

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Impacts

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification



Population growth

World oil prices

Food security


Safe level for CO2

350ppm

Global Warming

Impacts

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification



Population growth

World oil prices

Food security


Safe level for CO2

350ppm

Global Warming

http://www.peakoil.net/

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f2/PU200611_Fig1.png

Impacts

Sea level rise

Cyclone intensity

Flooding

Drought

Ocean acidification



Population growth

World oil prices

Food security


Safe level for CO2

350ppm

Global Warming

http://www.wfp.org/food-security

= Quite Big ProblemGlobal Warming

Solution? = Reduce Emissions

Sources? = Approx 80% Fossil Fuels

Approx 20% Forests

Kyoto Protocol

UNFCCC REDD Agreement (still under negotiation)

(and other instruments already available)




UNFCCC REDD Agreement (still under negotiation)

(and other instruments already available)

What’s new about REDD+ ?

New form of forest finance

Payment for Ecosystem Services

What’s new about REDD+ ?

Large scale environmental solutions need to be financedE.g. US$2 Trillion in low and no carbon energy in next decade



Large scale environmental solutions need to be financedE.g. US$2 Trillion in low and no carbon energy in next decade to peak in global GHG emissions

Green financ

e neede

d Public money

Private

money



Performance-based payments for the delivery of forest conservation benefits that are:

1. Measurable

2. Verifiable3. Additional4. Permanent

1. Measurable


Measurement Reporting & Verification

System (MRV)

1. Measurable



System (MRV)

Additionality Test (wouldn't have happened

anyway)

1. Measurable



System (MRV)

Instrument for Delivery of Incentive Payments

Legal & Socio-Economic Measures to Fix Causes of Deforestation/Degradation

Additionality Test (wouldn't have happened

anyway)

Instrument for Delivery of Incentive Payments

Income From This

Income From This

Wood/agriculture commodities sold in a market

E.g. carbon credit commodities sold in a market+ grant finance opportunities

What does PES look like ?

• Jobs• Economic development• Community well-being• Benefits from living

forests

for Ecosystem Services (PES)

Income From ThisE.g. carbon credit commodities sold in a market+ grant finance opportunities

This is what I do: I help rainforest owners make a living from Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) instead of timber




What can we do ?= Approx 80% Fossil Fuels

= Approx 80% Fossil Fuels

Approx 20% Forests


Approx 20% Forests

Positive messaging

Negative messaging

Enduring Relationships Need:


Approx 20% Forests

Focus on solution no less than of the time

Focus on problem no more than of the time

Effective Environmental Education And Communication

Strategies Need:

Bombarding people with problem data does not motivate them

Motivation comes with empowerment which comes from experiencing the act of fixing a problem

= Approx 80%Forests

Awareness

ValuesKnowledge

SkillsActions



= Approx 80%Forests



Focus on solution no less thanTurn ourselves into walking

s

Train others to be walking solutions

I hear and I forgetI see and I rememberI do and I understand


Focus on solution no less thanTurn ourselves into walking

s


Walking solutions master their art

through experience

Our job as educators is to provide experiences in the art of doing solutions

I also need the emotional intelligence to endure as a solutionist

… in the face of relentless challenges from people like me


Self Confidence Courage Conflict Resolution

Assertive Compassion

To sustain this we also need a support community

Ekodō

Environmental practice as a martial art

In an interconnected world there are no

boundaries

This is global self defence


Assertive Compassion

Ekodō


This is global self defence

I am good enough

In an interconnected world there are no

boundaries


Ekodō


I am good enough


I can do this

Just as I amI am good enough

Right here Right now


My mind is open and inquisative


I don’t mind making mistakes

I respond well to encouragement

Constantly judging me gives

me anxiety

I learn best when it is fun

My best teachers help me discover

my own skills

My mind is open and inquisative


I don’t mind making mistakes

I respond well to encouragement

Constantly judging me gives

me anxiety

My best teachers help me discover

my own skills

I learn best when it is fun

Thanks for listening

Thanks for listening

Some Ekodō Readings

Ekodō: The Gift

Ekodō: Good Enough

Ekodō: Earth Witness

Ekodō: Ecology of Anger

Ekodō: West Coast Story

Ekodō: The Rabbit

Or do a search in Happyzine for “Ekodo” articles

http://happyzine.co.nz/2011/10/26/the-gift-part-1/

http://happyzine.co.nz/2010/09/29/ekodo-good-enough/

http://happyzine.co.nz/2011/09/01/ekodo-earth-witness/

http://happyzine.co.nz/2010/09/16/ekodo-an-ecology-of-anger-part-1/

http://happyzine.co.nz/2010/09/06/ekodo-a-west-coast-story-part-1/

http://happyzine.co.nz/2010/11/01/ekodo-the-rabbit/

Documents

Dr Sean Weaver, Principal, Carbon Partnership sean@carbonpartnership