29
Economic Forecast for Northeast Louisiana Presented to the Business Outlook Summit Monroe, Louisiana March 29, 2007 Dr. Robert Eisenstadt University of Louisiana-Monroe Dr. John Francis Louisiana Tech University

Dr. Robert Eisenstadt University of Louisiana-Monroe Dr. John Francis Louisiana Tech University

  • Upload
    alban

  • View
    49

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Economic Forecast for Northeast Louisiana Presented to the Business Outlook Summit Monroe, Louisiana March 29, 2007. Dr. Robert Eisenstadt University of Louisiana-Monroe Dr. John Francis Louisiana Tech University. The measured labor force in NE Louisiana has fallen:. 2005-2006 change - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Citation preview

  • Economic Forecastfor Northeast Louisiana

    Presented to the Business Outlook SummitMonroe, LouisianaMarch 29, 2007Dr. Robert EisenstadtUniversity of Louisiana-MonroeDr. John FrancisLouisiana Tech University

  • The measured labor force in NE Louisiana has fallen:2005-2006 changein labor force = -5.6% in employment = -2.0%

    Slides 1 and 2 LF

    Use July data tables for slide

    Civilian Labor Force data -- July household survey data figures 2004-2006

    Civilian Labor ForceJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 8131,898139,774139,612

    Ouachita70,97374,01773,811

    Lincoln17,94118,89118,794

    Morehouse11,18212,09412,318

    Union10,21810,66210,705

    Louisiana1,894,1192,158,9292,098,395

    United States153,208,000151,122,000149,217,000

    Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    *July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    EmploymentJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 8126,795129,363129,011

    Ouachita68,68969,30069,348

    Lincoln7,0717,4067,336

    Morehouse10,56810,91111,031

    Union9,8959,9839,990

    Louisiana1,827,2222,024,1291,964,192

    United States145,606,000143,283,000140,700,000

    Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    *July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    UnemploymentJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 85,10310,41110,601

    Ouachita2,2844,7174,463

    Lincoln6661,2521,258

    Morehouse6141,1831,287

    Union323679715

    Louisiana66,897134,800134,203

    United States7,602,0007,839,0008,518,000

    Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    *July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    Unemployment Rates (%)Jul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 83.9%7.5%7.6%

    Ouachita3.2%6.4%6.0%

    Lincoln3.7%6.6%6.7%

    Morehouse5.5%9.8%10.4%

    Union3.2%6.4%6.7%

    Louisiana3.5%6.2%6.4%

    United States5.0%5.2%5.7%

    Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)Civilian Labor Force data -- July household survey data figures 2004-2006

    *July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revisedCivilian Labor ForceJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 8131,898139,774139,612

    Ouachita70,97374,01773,811

    Lincoln17,94118,89118,794

    Morehouse11,18212,09412,318

    December data is for attendees to have but not for presentationUnion10,21810,66210,705

    Same tables as above but December data -- year over yearLouisiana1,894,1192,158,9292,098,395

    DEC. of 04 to 06United States153,208,000151,122,000149,217,000

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    Civilian Labor ForceDec-04Dec-05Dec-06(monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    RLMA 8135,327132,759128,634*July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    Ouachita71,95271,71368,468

    Lincoln18,50118,22417,634EmploymentJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    Morehouse11,81611,32710,819RLMA 8126,795129,363129,011

    Union10,48810,2909,882Ouachita68,68969,30069,348

    Louisiana2,073,5411,896,9941,858,131Lincoln7,0717,4067,336

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and Midyear EstimatesMorehouse10,56810,91111,031

    *Dec-06 are preliminary figuresUnion9,8959,9839,990

    Louisiana1,827,2222,024,1291,964,192

    EmploymentDec-04Dec-05Dec-06United States145,606,000143,283,000140,700,000

    RLMA 8126,286125,756122,842Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    Ouachita68,24168,55465,971(monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    Lincoln17,47017,32916,972*July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    Morehouse10,70410,57410,054

    Union9,8319,8759,503

    Louisiana1,963,1331,787,1371,787,911

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and Midyear Estimates

    *Dec-06 are preliminary figures

    UnemploymentDec-04Dec-05Dec-06

    RLMA 89,0417,0035,792

    Ouachita3,7113,1592,497

    Lincoln1,031895662

    Morehouse1,112753765

    Union657415379

    Louisiana110,408109,85770,220

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and Midyear Estimates

    *Dec-06 are preliminary figures

    Unemployment Rates (%)Dec-04Dec-05Dec-06

    RLMA 86.7%5.3%4.5%

    Ouachita5.24.43.6

    Lincoln5.64.93.8

    Morehouse9.46.67.1

    Union6.34.03.8

    Louisiana5.35.83.8

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and Midyear Estimates

    *Dec-06 are preliminary figures

    Slides 1 and 2 LF

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    Jul-06

    Jul-05

    Jul-04

    Unemployment in Ne Louisiana

    slide 3 and 4 wage and salaries

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    Jul-06

    Jul-05

    Jul-04

    Unemplyment Rates NE LA, LA, US

    slide 4.5 and 5 Emp by indust

    slide 3 -- current dollar valuesslide 4 -- Constant 2007 $ values)

    Estimated Annual Wages (current $)Estimated Annual Wages (constant 2007 $)

    2004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 22004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 2

    RLMA 82,963,442,7683,057,447,2143,244,054,892RLMA 8$3,197,485,242$3,203,293,143$3,129,568,060

    Ouachita2,013,686,1482,088,272,5402,189,228,184Ouachita$2,172,720,124$2,187,887,031$2,117,409,697

    Lincoln481,479,696476,377,236507,826,280Lincoln$519,505,299$499,101,318$484,636,879

    Morehouse211,670,100203,393,916199,428,268Morehouse$228,387,073$213,096,185$211,985,389

    Union126,313,292129,395,864137,914,140Union$136,289,079$135,568,288$132,630,204

    Louisiana57,826,590,71760,896,082,36264,193,286,560Louisiana$62,393,535,110$63,800,938,962$62,391,506,107

    Source: www.laworks.netSource: www.laworks.net

    Average Weekly Wages (current $)Average Weekly Wage (constant 2007 $)

    2004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 22004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 2

    RLMA 8502526557RLMA 8$541$551$562

    Ouachita534566589Ouachita$577$593$594

    Lincoln510520535Lincoln$550$545$540

    Morehouse527517523Morehouse$569$542$528

    Union412428469Union$445$448$473

    Louisiana592617680Louisiana$639$646$686

    Source: www.laworks.net

    Average Employment

    2004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 2

    RLMA 8113,615111,739112,003

    Ouachita72,45570,91371,478

    Lincoln18,15617,62118,254

    Morehouse7,7217,5637,333

    Union5,8965,8185,655

    Louisiana1,878,5261,899,4981,815,421

    Source: www.laworks.net

    slide 6-7 retail

    Make slide 4.5 from below

    Net change in employment data from establishment data

    year-qtrNew Orleans (RLMA 1)Baton Rouge (RLMA 2)Houma (RLMA 3)Lafayette (RLMA 4)Lake Charles (RLMA 5)Alexandria (RLMA 6)Shreveport (RLMA 7)Monroe (RLMA 8)

    2006-2477,750408,22693,150262,194112,994107,051235,175112,003

    2005-2605,447392,15488,857248,054113,409104,126230,368111,739

    2004-2608,264383,77587,845243,506110,151101,217225,729113,614

    net change to State

    2005-2006 change-127,69716,0724,29314,140-4152,9254,807264-85,611

    2004-2005 change-2,8178,3791,0124,5483,2582,9094,639-1,87520,053

    make slide 5 from the boxed table below

    2004 to 2006 changes in employment by occupation RLMA 8 (growth industries in yellow)

    2004200520062004-2006

    REGIONAL LABOR MARKET AREA 8113,615111,739112,003(1,612)

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting2,3972,4472,182(215)

    Mining283197236(47)

    Utilities91591594025

    Construction5,9075,6655,904(3)

    Manufacturing12,38812,52611,649(739)

    Wholesale trade3,8363,8863,963127

    Retail trade14,50414,40114,57773

    Transportation and warehousing2,8122,9973,019207

    Information2,2062,1082,143(63)

    Finance and insurance5,4214,9174,697(724)

    Real estate and rental and leasing1,2541,3841,577323

    Professional and technical services3,2063,1473,21711

    Management of companies and enterprises1,9591,9121,733(226)

    Administrative and waste services3,6843,8964,505821

    Educational services13,50812,31511,988(1,520)

    Health care and social assistance20,07820,39820,844766

    Arts, entertainment, and recreation1,0581,0241,10648

    Accommodation and food services8,4108,0938,182(228)

    Other services, except public administration3,2913,1773,213(78)

    Public administration6,4476,2466,232(215)

    Tables below are for attendees but not for presentationScroll right for Ouachita, Lincoln, Morehouse, Union Parishes

    NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimatedNAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimated2006-2NAICSTotal UnitsAvg Qtrly EmploymentQtrly wagesAverage weekly wageAnnual Wages $NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEestimated

    2006-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $2006-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $MOREHOUSE6167,33349,843,176523.00199428268.002006-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $annual wages

    OUACHITA Parish4,70971,478547,687,4165892,189,228,184Lincoln Parish1,15718,254126,849,405535507,826,280Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11553642,015,5824268,063,328UNION4105,65534,503,352469137,914,140

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11231791,315,6145655,259,020Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11324002,089,2474028,361,600Mining212***n/aAgriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting1119149929,1234803,719,040

    Mining21261271,308,6267935,236,972Mining21121752,615,375115010,465,000Utilities221171732,7377942,931,448Mining21321212,092777848,484

    Utilities22245525,277,13873521,097,440Utilities22231331,250,7497235,000,268Construction23473642,435,8035159,747,920Utilities221178478,6554721,914,432

    Construction234393,78630,429,902618121,666,896Construction231001,0188,302,31062733,190,872Manufacturing31-3316***n/aConstruction23593752,302,9584729,204,000

    Manufacturing31-331607,04878,432,897856313,720,576Manufacturing31-33351,49614,773,58076059,121,920Wholesale trade42242512,602,37179810,415,496Manufacturing31-3315****

    Wholesale trade422602,67626,862,129772107,425,344Wholesale trade42568808,350,96573033,404,800Retail trade44-451009855,347,04741821,409,960Wholesale trade4216109635,1544482,539,264

    Retail trade44-457409,24947,941,276399191,898,252Retail trade44-451782,31511,446,06938045,744,400Transportation and warehousing48-49311741,428,2926315,709,288Retail trade44-45705743,311,84844413,252,512

    Transportation and warehousing48-491391,91117,570,67970770,256,004Transportation and warehousing48-49462932,887,17875811,548,888Information518104652,1684822,606,656Transportation and warehousing48-4927116891,6495913,564,912

    Information51911,81116,123,92168564,507,820Information51181831,504,0836326,014,112Finance and insurance52502301,874,7546277,498,920Information51546397,9676651,590,680

    Finance and insurance523863,53131,870,506694127,426,728Finance and insurance52946946,662,45873826,632,944Real estate and rental and leasing532692410,3543431,640,912Finance and insurance5223120899,9965773,600,480

    Real estate and rental and leasing532291,1797,202,23647028,814,760Real estate and rental and leasing53602541,333,6394045,336,032Professional and technical services5432107634,8904562,537,184Real estate and rental and leasing5371575,828389303,420

    Professional and technical services544712,49922,934,13170691,743,288Professional and technical services54934213,404,86762213,616,824Management of companies and enterprises5500000Professional and technical services542394573,8004702,297,360

    Management of companies and enterprises55191,42720,761,9591,11983,034,276Management of companies and enterprises557671,161,3331,3334,644,172Administrative and waste services561371296,0953211,185,132Management of companies and enterprises5500000

    Administrative and waste services562143,28316,768,63539367,091,388Administrative and waste services56536293,668,07544914,685,892Educational services614***n/aAdministrative and waste services561899534,9834162,141,568

    Educational services61356,93260,407,458670241,510,880Educational services61123,61128,666,945611114,728,692Health care and social assistance62761,6229,046,79742936,183,576Educational services614****

    Health care and social assistance6256112,779101,955,512614408,007,912Health care and social assistance621073,20319,591,52347178,447,876Arts, entertainment, and recreation71548192,612309771,264Health care and social assistance62351,1066,171,85442924,672,648

    Arts, entertainment, and recreation71517922,691,78926110,749,024Arts, entertainment, and recreation71976192,979195770,640Accommodation and food services72304771,091,7181764,365,504Arts, entertainment, and recreation71638130,845265523,640

    Accommodation and food services722796,11317,311,92821869,296,968Accommodation and food services72781,6623,653,98816914,605,656Other services, except public administration8151211736,8102692,951,468Accommodation and food services7217232551,1941832,207,712

    Other services, except public administration814272,41512,149,02038748,599,460Other services, except public administration81963121,631,7504026,522,048Public administration92344082,786,88252511,138,400Other services, except public administration812462380,2024721,521,728

    Public administration92983,12327,698,644682110,754,072Public administration92414233,605,46765614,429,376*Data Non-publishablePublic administration92232921,816,3344787,257,952

    *Data Non-publishable

    NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimatedNAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimated2005-2NAICSTotal UnitsAvg Qtrly EmploymentQtrly wagesAverage weekly wageAnnual Wages $NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEestimated

    2005-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $2005-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $MOREHOUSE6097,56350,848,479517.18203393916.002005-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $annual wages

    OUACHITA Parish4,59570,913522,068,135566.312,088,272,540Lincoln Parish1,10617,621119,094,309519.90476,377,236Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11543821,908,618384.347,634,472UNION3955,81832,348,966427.70129,395,864

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting1121127915,023554.223,660,092Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11302721,512,658427.796,050,632Mining21****n/aAgriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11262011,227,334469.704,909,336

    Mining2123119998,642645.533,994,568Mining21111081,228,208874.794,912,832Utilities221174760,948791.013,043,792Mining21*****

    Utilities22255235,522,152812.2022,088,608Utilities22241301,094,886647.864,379,544Construction23513822,645,953532.8110,583,812Utilities221074468,932487.461,875,728

    Construction234333,41125,970,465585.67103,881,860Construction23911,0597,209,452523.6828,837,808Manufacturing31-33****n/aConstruction23513892,154,353426.018,617,412

    Manufacturing31-331607,42677,228,283799.98308,913,132Manufacturing31-33371,58816,866,855817.0367,467,420Wholesale trade42222362,356,748768.179,426,992Manufacturing31-33*****

    Wholesale trade422562,56922,829,970683.5991,319,880Wholesale trade42588367,229,838665.2428,919,352Retail trade44-451021,1035,409,000377.2221,636,000Wholesale trade421582576,846541.132,307,384

    Retail trade44-457109,03044,415,352378.36177,661,408Retail trade44-451732,1119,876,046359.8739,504,184Transportation and warehousing48-49251641,409,524661.135,638,096Retail trade44-45715812,832,633375.0311,330,532

    Transportation and warehousing48-491331,87017,138,353704.9968,553,412Transportation and warehousing48-49412992,835,821729.5711,343,284Information5111110806,127563.733,224,508Transportation and warehousing48-49241421,024,377554.924,097,508

    Information51901,77615,721,800680.9562,887,200Information51181881,523,440623.346,093,760Finance and insurance52472421,844,941586.447,379,764Information51540387,535745.261,550,140

    Finance and insurance523813,72131,406,202649.25125,624,808Finance and insurance52826076,121,820775.8024,487,280Real estate and rental and leasing5326117420,028276.151,680,112Finance and insurance5222156964,813475.753,859,252

    Real estate and rental and leasing532189666,161,318490.6324,645,272Real estate and rental and leasing53582591,537,237456.566,148,948Professional and technical services5433105718,681526.512,874,724Real estate and rental and leasing5382167,709248.02270,836

    Professional and technical services544702,51520,595,124629.9282,380,496Professional and technical services54853772,814,237574.2211,256,948Management of companies and enterprises550000.000Professional and technical services542165492,346582.661,969,384

    Management of companies and enterprises55201,61523,991,2051142.7195,964,820Management of companies and enterprises556601,071,8221374.134,287,288Administrative and waste services561471296,328321.051,185,312Management of companies and enterprises550000.000

    Administrative and waste services562063,21614,489,337346.5757,957,348Administrative and waste services56565793,092,349410.8312,369,396Educational services61****n/aAdministrative and waste services5614162697,233331.072,788,932

    Educational services61366,95658,490,479646.82233,961,916Educational services6193,59528,179,293602.96112,717,172Health care and social assistance62691,5028,013,758410.4132,055,032Educational services61*****

    Health care and social assistance6255012,73998,811,271596.66395,245,084Health care and social assistance621003,02618,215,549463.0572,862,196Arts, entertainment, and recreation71548220,918354.04883,672Health care and social assistance62349184,726,351396.0418,905,404

    Arts, entertainment, and recreation71437192,417,184258.619,668,736Arts, entertainment, and recreation71968153,283173.40613,132Accommodation and food services7231468992,736163.173,970,944Arts, entertainment, and recreation71640150,136288.72600,544

    Accommodation and food services722675,97715,801,555203.3663,206,220Accommodation and food services72781,6873,499,754159.5813,999,016Other services, except public administration8152205670,753251.692,683,012Accommodation and food services7216309539,130134.212,156,520

    Other services, except public administration814232,38211,426,654369.0145,706,616Other services, except public administration81913321,575,474365.036,301,896Public administration92344012,665,836511.3810,663,344Other services, except public administration812461365,037460.321,460,148

    Public administration92983,19827,460,736660.53109,842,944Public administration92414263,400,651614.0613,602,604*Data Non-publishablePublic administration92232861,916,687515.527,666,748

    *Data Non-publishable

    NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimatedNAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimatedNAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimatedNAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimated

    Change 2005 to 2006CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $Change 2005 to 2006CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $Change 2005 to 2006CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $Change 2005 to 2006CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $

    Ouachita Parish11456525,619,28123100,955,644Lincoln Parish516337,755,0961531,449,044Lincoln Parish7(230)(1,005,303)6-3,965,648Lincoln Parish15(163)2,154,386418,518,276

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11252400,591111,598,928Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting112128576,589(26)2,310,968Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting111(18)106,96442428,856Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11(7)(52)(298,211)10-1,190,296

    Mining2138309,9841471,242,404Mining211671,387,1672755,552,168Mining21*****Mining21*****

    Utilities22(1)29(245,014)(77)-991,168Utilities22(1)3155,86375620,724Utilities220(3)(28,211)3-112,344Utilities225****

    Construction2363754,459,4373217,785,036Construction239(41)1,092,8581034,353,064Construction23(4)(18)(210,150)(18)-835,892Construction238(14)148,60546586,588

    Manufacturing31-330(378)1,204,614564,807,444Manufacturing31-33(2)(92)(2,093,275)(57)-8,345,500Manufacturing31-33*****Manufacturing31-33*****

    Wholesale trade4241074,032,1598816,105,464Wholesale trade42(2)441,121,127654,485,448Wholesale trade42215245,62330988,504Wholesale trade421234314,803501,257,528

    Retail trade44-45302193,525,9242114,236,844Retail trade44-4552041,570,023206,240,216Retail trade44-45(2)(118)(61,953)41-226,040Retail trade44-45(1)(7)479,215691,921,980

    Transportation and warehousing48-49641432,32621,702,592Transportation and warehousing48-495(6)51,35728205,604Transportation and warehousing48-4961018,768(30)71,192Transportation and warehousing48-493(26)(132,728)36-532,596

    Information51135402,12141,620,620Information510(5)(19,357)9-79,648Information51(3)(6)(153,959)(82)-617,852Information510610,432(80)40,540

    Finance and insurance525(190)464,304451,801,920Finance and insurance521287540,638(38)2,145,664Finance and insurance523(12)29,81341119,156Finance and insurance521(36)(64,817)101-258,772

    Real estate and rental and leasing53112131,040,918(21)4,169,488Real estate and rental and leasing532(5)(203,598)(53)-812,916Real estate and rental and leasing530(25)(9,674)67-39,200Real estate and rental and leasing53(1)(6)8,11914132,584

    Professional and technical services541(16)2,339,007769,362,792Professional and technical services54844590,630482,359,876Professional and technical services54(1)2(83,791)(71)-337,540Professional and technical services5422981,454(113)327,976

    Management of companies and enterprises55(1)(188)(3,229,246)(24)-12,930,544Management of companies and enterprises551789,511(41)356,884Management of companies and enterprises5500000Management of companies and enterprises554****

    Administrative and waste services568672,279,298469,134,040Administrative and waste services56(3)50575,726382,316,496Administrative and waste services56(1)0(233)(0)-180Administrative and waste services564(63)(162,250)85-647,364

    Educational services61(1)(24)1,916,979237,548,964Educational services61316487,65282,011,520Educational services61*****Educational services61*****

    Health care and social assistance6211403,144,2411712,762,828Health care and social assistance6271771,375,97485,585,680Health care and social assistance6271201,033,039194,128,544Health care and social assistance6211881,445,503335,767,244

    Arts, entertainment, and recreation71873274,60521,080,288Arts, entertainment, and recreation710839,69622157,508Arts, entertainment, and recreation7100(28,306)(45)-112,408Arts, entertainment, and recreation710(2)(19,291)(24)-76,904

    Accommodation and food services72121361,510,373156,090,748Accommodation and food services720(25)154,2349606,640Accommodation and food services72(1)998,98213394,560Accommodation and food services721(77)12,0644951,192

    Other services, except public administration81433722,366182,892,844Other services, except public administration815(20)56,27637220,152Other services, except public administration81(1)666,05717268,456Other services, except public administration810115,1651261,580

    Public administration920(75)237,90821911,128Public administration920(3)204,81642826,772Public administration9207121,04614475,056Public administration9206(100,353)(38)-408,796

    slide 8 new car sales

    Slide for Ouachita only -- call me at 791-1877 when you get to this one so we can discuss. Thanks, Bob.

    Estimated retail activity in Ouachita Parish 2004-2006 (current $)

    januaryfebruarymarchaprilmayjunejulyaugustseptemberoctobernovemberdecember

    Estimated Retail sales less est motor vehicle sales 2004$142,413,530$143,189,032$169,927,547$159,038,697$152,879,597$167,596,047$155,865,051$151,394,433$165,316,419$142,914,740$153,208,492$207,729,810

    Estimated Retail sales less est motor vehicle sales 2005$150,128,101$148,698,605$160,924,892$148,326,265$163,636,768$171,443,904$160,763,229$166,648,609$183,872,271$160,054,175$160,146,052$227,322,628

    Estimated Retail sales less est motor vehicle sales 2006$164,345,731$162,486,040$197,695,613$176,551,886$176,453,606$195,119,844$178,908,148$177,323,415$190,517,745$164,299,550$171,864,348$244,015,170

    januaryfebruarymarchaprilmayjunejulyaugustseptemberoctobernovemberdecember

    %change 2004-20055.42%3.85%-5.30%-6.74%7.04%2.30%3.14%10.08%11.22%11.99%4.53%9.43%

    %change 2005-20069.47%9.27%22.85%19.03%7.83%13.81%11.29%6.41%3.61%2.65%7.32%7.34%

    3month average change 2005n/an/a1.32%-2.73%-1.67%0.87%4.16%5.17%8.15%11.10%9.25%8.65%

    3month average change 20067.81%9.39%13.86%17.05%16.57%13.56%10.98%10.50%7.10%4.22%4.53%5.77%

    estimated annual retail sales less auto 20041,911,473,395Ann % changeestimated annual auto sales 2004$233,187,908Ann % change

    estimated annual retail sales less auto 20052,001,965,4994.7%estimated annual auto sales 2005$242,787,6544.1%

    estimated annual retail sales less auto 20062,199,581,0979.9%estimated annual auto sales 2006$237,312,705-2.3%

    Estimated retail activity in Ouachita Parish 2004-2006 (constant 2007 $)

    januaryfebruarymarchaprilmayjunejulyaugustseptemberoctobernovemberdecember

    recomputed less auto adjusted for inflation 2004$155,652,144$155,659,243$183,543,513$171,233,919$163,645,037$178,830,371$166,576,453$161,713,222$176,212,155$151,536,040$162,365,707$220,955,529

    recomputed less auto adjusted for inflation 2005$159,351,493$156,928,972$168,514,087$154,283,706$170,384,259$178,421,538$166,535,567$171,753,284$187,216,748$162,638,183$164,049,207$233,809,640

    recomputed less auto adjusted for inflation 2006$167,756,962$165,524,782$200,284,060$177,354,474$176,380,411$194,654,403$177,955,143$176,032,842$190,063,282$164,801,079$172,645,627$244,760,033

    januaryfebruarymarchaprilmay

    %change 2004-20052.38%0.82%-8.19%-9.90%4.12%-0.23%-0.02%6.21%6.25%7.33%1.04%5.82%

    %change 2005-20065.27%5.48%18.85%14.95%3.52%9.10%6.86%2.49%1.52%1.33%5.24%4.68%

    3month average change 2005n/an/a-1.67%-5.76%-4.66%-2.00%1.29%1.99%4.14%6.59%4.87%4.73%

    3month average change 20064.04%5.52%9.87%13.09%12.44%9.19%6.49%6.15%3.62%1.78%2.70%3.75%

    estimated annual retail recomputed adj less auto 20042,047,923,335Ann % changeestimated annual auto sales 2004$249,853,005Ann % change

    estimated annual retail recomputed adj less auto 20052,073,886,6831.3%estimated annual auto sales 2005$251,614,0360.7%

    estimated annual retail recomputed adj less auto 20062,208,213,0986.5%estimated annual auto sales 2006$238,254,422-5.3%

    slide for lincoln only

    Estimated retail activity in Lincoln Parish 2004-2006 (current $)

    200620052004% chg 05-06% chg 04-05

    Lincoln Parish retail sales$1,197,414,920$1,062,981,328$968,462,45112.6%9.8%

    less auto and service stations$141,101,410$143,158,210$169,591,465-1.4%-15.6%

    Net non-auto retail sales$1,056,313,510$919,823,118$798,870,98614.8%15.1%

    Estimated retail activity in Lincoln Parish 2004-2006 (constant 2007 $)

    200620052004% chg 05-06% chg 04-05

    Lincoln Parish retail sales$1,202,166,567$1,101,625,299$1,037,674,9619.1%6.2%

    less auto and service stations$141,661,336$148,362,631$181,711,554-4.5%-18.4%

    Net non-auto retail sales$1,060,505,230$953,262,668$855,963,40711.3%11.4%

    Real per-capita non-auto estimated retail Sales

    constant 07 $OuachitaLincoln

    2006$14,742$24,867

    2005$13,990$22,639

    2004$13,815$20,243

    slide 9 new construction

    New Vehicle Registrations

    Total Vehicle Sales

    200420052006chg 04-06

    NE LA14,92515,15415,163238

    Ouachita6,5276,8626,725198

    Lincoln1,9131,9261,97865

    Morehouse1,1851,0121,036-149

    Union1,0331,057978-55

    Louisiana240,203260,050294,25354,050

    Total Non-Fleet Car, Van and Light Truck Sales

    200420052006chg 04-06

    NE LA14,18114,45014,486305

    Ouachita6,1086,4086,326218

    Lincoln1,7591,8081,82364

    Morehouse1,1439881,010-133

    Union1,0111,025961-50

    Louisiana216,834234,061266,86050,026

    Slide 10 population

    Total Construction Permits/Projects 2005 and 2006

    Cummulative to Date- December 2006

    Residential PermitsNumber of ProjectsDwelling UnitsThousands of Square FeetValue (millions $)Value of Permits in January 2007 millions of Constant Dollars ($)

    20062005200620052006200520062005%Change20062005

    Total Ouachita and Union7615417635461,6031,142$122.7$83.846$123.2$86.9

    Ouachita, LA5143975164021,082838$89.9$65.537$90.3$67.9

    Union, LA247144247144522304$32.7$18.379$32.8$19.0

    * Square Feet in Thousands and Value in $Millions.

    *Source: December 2006 Dodge Report

    Cummulative to Date- December 2006

    Non-Residential PermitsNumber of ProjectsThousands of Square FeetValue (millions $)Value of Permits in January 2007 millions of Constant Dollars ($)

    200620052006200520062005%Change20062005

    Commercial131223954$25.2$5.6*$25.3$5.8

    Manufacturing0000$0.0$0.00$0.0$0.0

    Manufacturing0000$0.0$0.00$0.0$0.0

    Dormitories02061$0.0$10.4$0.0$10.8

    Hospital & Health Treatment533714$5.7$2.5*$5.7$2.6

    Public Buildings13627$0.9$3.4-74$0.9$3.5

    Religious444492$4.9$6.2-22$4.9$6.4

    Amusement04020$0.0$7.9$0.0$8.2

    Miscellaneous Non-Res.1189$0.7$0.536$0.7$0.5

    * Square Feet in Thousands and Value in $Millions.

    * In the %Change Column, increases of 100% or more are indicated by *.

    *Source: December 2006 Dodge Report

    Make one slide from the data below:

    Ouachita and Union ParishNumber of ProjectsThousands of Square FeetValue (millions $)Value of Permits in January 2007 millions of Constant Dollars ($)2007200620052004

    20062005200620052006200520062005590456655907actualempl

    Total Construction Projects81559620161421$252.6$206.7$253.6$214.24,553.973,846.73predictedempl lagged

    Total Building Projects78957320161421$167.5$121.7$168.2$126.1

    Residential76154116031142$122.7$83.8$123.2$86.9

    Non-residential2832412279$44.8$37.9$45.0$39.3707.25empl chg

    Total Non-building2623----$85.1$85.0$85.4$88.130628avg wages

    New Residential permits --Ouachita Parish only452396n/an/a$74.7$59.0$75.0$61.121661556.2459552

    *Source: December 2006 Dodge Report

    LA DOTD New Permit Residential Construction

    179.920021.125069483

    195.320051.0363543267

    201.620061.003968254

    202.420071

    slide 11 real estate

    Can we place this little chart below the bar chart?

    Make a Bar Chart for the yellow data below.

    Migration and Natural Increase 2000 to 2005

    July 1st Population estimates for 2000, 2005, 2006Net International In-MigrationNet Domestic In-Migration

    NE LAOuachitaLincolnMorehouseUnionLincoln295-1,818

    1-Jul-06306,775149,78842,64729,71522,199Morehouse3-1,460

    1-Jul-05306,875148,23742,10829,98922,901Ouachita247-4,134

    1-Jul-00311,163147,23242,48230,98322,780Union86-316

    Source: U.S. Census BureauLouisiana20,174-89,547

    July 1st Estimated Population 2000 to 2006

    NE LAOuachitaLincolnMorehouseUnionLouisianaUS

    1-Jul-06306,775149,78842,64729,71522,1994,287,768299,398,484

    1-Jul-05306,875148,23742,10829,98922,9014,523,628296,507,061

    1-Jul-04308,272148,23842,28530,38322,8514,506,685293,638,158

    1-Jul-03308,877147,69142,10830,59222,9044,490,380290,796,023

    1-Jul-02308,749147,07341,85830,51422,8104,475,003288,125,973

    1-Jul-01309,113146,39742,02730,68322,8904,465,258285,226,284

    1-Jul-00311,163147,23242,48230,98322,7804,469,495282,216,952

    Percent Change in Population

    % Change for 2000 to 2005% Change for 2005 to 2006

    RLMA 8-1.38%-0.03%

    Ouachita0.68%1.05%

    Lincoln-0.88%1.28%

    Morehouse-3.21%-0.91%

    Union0.53%-3.07%

    Louisiana1.21%-5.21%

    United States5.06%0.98%

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau

    Cummulative Estimate Components of Population Change: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006

    Geographic AreaTotal Population Change*Natural IncreaseNet Migration

    TotalBirthsDeathsTotalNet International MigrationNet Internal Migration

    United States17,973,88210,324,37225,486,56915,162,1977,649,5107,649,510-

    .Louisiana-181,190145,355410,364265,009-308,24822,244-330,492

    Suggested Citation:

    Table 4: Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change for the United States, Regions and States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 (NST-EST2006-04)

    Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau

    Release Date: December 22, 2006

    data not yet availabe for parishes on census

    Migration and Natural Increase 2000 to 2005

    Total Population ChangeBirthsDeathsNet International In-MigrationNet Domestic In-MigrationNet Natural (Births minus Deaths)

    Caldwell3669704053(35)

    East Carroll-6657705398-884231

    Franklin-8831,6261,46219-1,046164

    Jackson-2621,1091,1070-2412

    Lincoln-4012,9171,745295-1,8181,172

    Madison-1,27196875425-1,494214

    Morehouse-1,0322,3941,9283-1,460466

    Ouachita98712,2557,222247-4,1345,033

    Richland-4551,5881,3098-720279

    Tensas-49349338125-616112

    Union981,6881,32686-316362

    West Carroll-5087858044-478(19)

    Louisiana54,670350,818220,92920,174-89,547129,889

    *Source: U.S. Census Bureau

    slide 12 Guide plant

    first real estate slide is current price data (blue)

    Existing home sales: Sold price greater than $50,000 (current $ comparison)*

    Yearsold pricedays on mktsellppsqftsold price/ask pricesold ppsqft/ask ppsqfttotal homes soldlistedsold/listed

    2003$140,202114$68.8896.3%96.6%1613176691.3%

    2004$140,280116$69.8596.4%96.6%1702248268.6%

    2005$149,127117$72.9896.5%96.9%1903271570.1%

    2006$148,869114$75.0496.3%96.7%1917297864.4%

    Existing home sales: Sold price greater than $200,000 (current $ comparison)

    Yearsold pricedays on mktsellppsqftsold price/ask pricesold ppsqft/ask ppsqfttotal homes soldlistedsold/listed

    2003$277,994139$95.5795.8%96.2%23228681.1%

    2004$280,341150$94.0696.0%96.4%25345455.7%

    2005$291,031144$98.9196.1%96.8%33856060.4%

    2006$288,558140$101.3695.7%96.3%34066751.0%

    *data includes Ouachita and contiguous parishes.

    second real estate slide is adjusted for inflation (sort of yellow)

    Existing home sales: Sold price greater than $50,000 (constant 2007 $)

    Yearsold pricedays on mktsellppsqftsell price - asking pricesellppft-askppft

    2003$153,613114$75.47-$5,897-$2.63

    2004$149,711116$74.55-$5,603-$2.60

    2005$153,938117$75.33-$5,526-$2.39

    2006$148,869114$75.04-$5,725-$2.58

    Existing home sales: Sold price greater than $200,000 (constant 2007 $)

    Yearsold pricedays on mktsellppsqftsold price/ask pricesold ppsqft/ask ppsqft

    2003$304,585139$104.71-$13,478-$4.15

    2004$299,189150$100.38-$12,502-$3.71

    2005$300,419144$102.10-$12,256-$3.43

    2006$288,558140$101.36-$12,880-$3.87

    One slide with both tables below.

    Guide plant Closure: approximate long-run impact of closure on region, everything else equal.

    Direct effectIndirect effectTotal estimated impactImpact % of NE total

    Change in household income$53,000,000$50,164,500$103,164,5003.2%

    Change in employment800169424941.9%

    avg annual wage/job$66,250

    Forecast Medium Term Outcome 2007-08

    JobsWage/salary income

    gains (construction driven)625$20,085,000

    losses

    direct loss due to closure of Guide-800($35,609,600)

    Medium term (1st year) indirect losses-750($22,971,000)

    Net medium term losses-925($38,495,600)

    Forecast unempl rate and change in income4.5-5.0%-1.2%

    change over 2006 levelsavg week wage

    Construction employment + secondary empl625618$20,085,000

    Retail Employment399$0

    manufacturing-800856($35,609,600)

    miscelaneous associated Guide jobs-738.97675589($22,633,380)

    total employment (change jobs)-914($38,157,980)

    Unemployment rate4.5-5.0%

    Wage and Salarytotal ouach wages$3,129,568,060

    change in jobsunempl rate

    20052006restaurant-319.7278131898

    REGIONAL LABOR MARKET AREA 8111,739112,003retail-634.815455103

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting2,4472,182total employment effet2493.52925

    Mining197236direct empl-8006028

    Utilities915940738.976750.0457019818

    Construction5,6655,904

    Manufacturing12,52611,649

    Wholesale trade3,8863,963guide naics336300

    Retail trade14,40114,577

    Transportation and warehousing2,9973,019

    Information2,1082,143

    Finance and insurance4,9174,697

    Real estate and rental and leasing1,3841,577

    Professional and technical services3,1473,217

    Management of companies and enterprises1,9121,733

    Administrative and waste services3,8964,505

    Educational services12,31511,988

    Health care and social assistance20,39820,844

    Arts, entertainment, and recreation1,0241,106

    Accommodation and food services8,0938,182

    Other services, except public administration3,1773,213

    Public administration6,2466,232

  • Unemployment, however, is not the issue it used to be..(figures from July 2006 household survey, not seasonally adjusted)

    Chart2

    51031041110601

    228447174463

    66612521258

    61411831287

    323679715

    Jul-06

    Jul-05

    Jul-04

    Unemployment in Ne Louisiana

    Slides 1 and 2 LF

    Use July data tables for slide

    Civilian Labor Force data -- July household survey data figures 2004-2006

    Civilian Labor ForceJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 8131,898139,774139,612

    Ouachita70,97374,01773,811

    Lincoln17,94118,89118,794

    Morehouse11,18212,09412,318

    Union10,21810,66210,705

    Louisiana1,894,1192,158,9292,098,395

    United States153,208,000151,122,000149,217,000

    Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    *July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    EmploymentJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 8126,795129,363129,011

    Ouachita68,68969,30069,348

    Lincoln7,0717,4067,336

    Morehouse10,56810,91111,031

    Union9,8959,9839,990

    Louisiana1,827,2222,024,1291,964,192

    United States145,606,000143,283,000140,700,000

    Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    *July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    UnemploymentJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 85,10310,41110,601

    Ouachita2,2844,7174,463

    Lincoln6661,2521,258

    Morehouse6141,1831,287

    Union323679715

    Louisiana66,897134,800134,203

    United States7,602,0007,839,0008,518,000

    Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    *July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    Unemployment Rates (%)Jul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 83.9%7.5%7.6%

    Ouachita3.2%6.4%6.0%

    Lincoln3.7%6.6%6.7%

    Morehouse5.5%9.8%10.4%

    Union3.2%6.4%6.7%

    Louisiana3.5%6.2%6.4%

    United States5.0%5.2%5.7%

    Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)Civilian Labor Force data -- July household survey data figures 2004-2006

    *July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revisedCivilian Labor ForceJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 8131,898139,774139,612

    Ouachita70,97374,01773,811

    Lincoln17,94118,89118,794

    Morehouse11,18212,09412,318

    December data is for attendees to have but not for presentationUnion10,21810,66210,705

    Same tables as above but December data -- year over yearLouisiana1,894,1192,158,9292,098,395

    DEC. of 04 to 06United States153,208,000151,122,000149,217,000

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    Civilian Labor ForceDec-04Dec-05Dec-06(monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    RLMA 8135,327132,759128,634*July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    Ouachita71,95271,71368,468

    Lincoln18,50118,22417,634EmploymentJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    Morehouse11,81611,32710,819RLMA 8126,795129,363129,011

    Union10,48810,2909,882Ouachita68,68969,30069,348

    Louisiana2,073,5411,896,9941,858,131Lincoln7,0717,4067,336

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and Midyear EstimatesMorehouse10,56810,91111,031

    *Dec-06 are preliminary figuresUnion9,8959,9839,990

    Louisiana1,827,2222,024,1291,964,192

    EmploymentDec-04Dec-05Dec-06United States145,606,000143,283,000140,700,000

    RLMA 8126,286125,756122,842Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    Ouachita68,24168,55465,971(monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    Lincoln17,47017,32916,972*July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    Morehouse10,70410,57410,054

    Union9,8319,8759,503

    Louisiana1,963,1331,787,1371,787,911

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and Midyear Estimates

    *Dec-06 are preliminary figures

    UnemploymentDec-04Dec-05Dec-06

    RLMA 89,0417,0035,792

    Ouachita3,7113,1592,497

    Lincoln1,031895662

    Morehouse1,112753765

    Union657415379

    Louisiana110,408109,85770,220

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and Midyear Estimates

    *Dec-06 are preliminary figures

    Unemployment Rates (%)Dec-04Dec-05Dec-06

    RLMA 86.7%5.3%4.5%

    Ouachita5.24.43.6

    Lincoln5.64.93.8

    Morehouse9.46.67.1

    Union6.34.03.8

    Louisiana5.35.83.8

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and Midyear Estimates

    *Dec-06 are preliminary figures

    Slides 1 and 2 LF

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    Jul-06

    Jul-05

    Jul-04

    Unemployment in Ne Louisiana

    slide 3 and 4 wage and salaries

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    Jul-06

    Jul-05

    Jul-04

    Unemplyment Rates NE LA, LA, US

    slide 4.5 and 5 Emp by indust

    slide 3 -- current dollar valuesslide 4 -- Constant 2007 $ values)

    Estimated Annual Wages (current $)Estimated Annual Wages (constant 2007 $)

    2004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 22004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 2

    RLMA 82,963,442,7683,057,447,2143,244,054,892RLMA 8$3,197,485,242$3,203,293,143$3,129,568,060

    Ouachita2,013,686,1482,088,272,5402,189,228,184Ouachita$2,172,720,124$2,187,887,031$2,117,409,697

    Lincoln481,479,696476,377,236507,826,280Lincoln$519,505,299$499,101,318$484,636,879

    Morehouse211,670,100203,393,916199,428,268Morehouse$228,387,073$213,096,185$211,985,389

    Union126,313,292129,395,864137,914,140Union$136,289,079$135,568,288$132,630,204

    Louisiana57,826,590,71760,896,082,36264,193,286,560Louisiana$62,393,535,110$63,800,938,962$62,391,506,107

    Source: www.laworks.netSource: www.laworks.net

    Average Weekly Wages (current $)Average Weekly Wage (constant 2007 $)

    2004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 22004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 2

    RLMA 8502526557RLMA 8$541$551$562

    Ouachita534566589Ouachita$577$593$594

    Lincoln510520535Lincoln$550$545$540

    Morehouse527517523Morehouse$569$542$528

    Union412428469Union$445$448$473

    Louisiana592617680Louisiana$639$646$686

    Source: www.laworks.net

    Average Employment

    2004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 2

    RLMA 8113,615111,739112,003

    Ouachita72,45570,91371,478

    Lincoln18,15617,62118,254

    Morehouse7,7217,5637,333

    Union5,8965,8185,655

    Louisiana1,878,5261,899,4981,815,421

    Source: www.laworks.net

    slide 6-7 retail

    Make slide 4.5 from below

    Net change in employment data from establishment data

    year-qtrNew Orleans (RLMA 1)Baton Rouge (RLMA 2)Houma (RLMA 3)Lafayette (RLMA 4)Lake Charles (RLMA 5)Alexandria (RLMA 6)Shreveport (RLMA 7)Monroe (RLMA 8)

    2006-2477,750408,22693,150262,194112,994107,051235,175112,003

    2005-2605,447392,15488,857248,054113,409104,126230,368111,739

    2004-2608,264383,77587,845243,506110,151101,217225,729113,614

    net change to State

    2005-2006 change-127,69716,0724,29314,140-4152,9254,807264-85,611

    2004-2005 change-2,8178,3791,0124,5483,2582,9094,639-1,87520,053

    make slide 5 from the boxed table below

    2004 to 2006 changes in employment by occupation RLMA 8 (growth industries in yellow)

    2004200520062004-2006

    REGIONAL LABOR MARKET AREA 8113,615111,739112,003(1,612)

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting2,3972,4472,182(215)

    Mining283197236(47)

    Utilities91591594025

    Construction5,9075,6655,904(3)

    Manufacturing12,38812,52611,649(739)

    Wholesale trade3,8363,8863,963127

    Retail trade14,50414,40114,57773

    Transportation and warehousing2,8122,9973,019207

    Information2,2062,1082,143(63)

    Finance and insurance5,4214,9174,697(724)

    Real estate and rental and leasing1,2541,3841,577323

    Professional and technical services3,2063,1473,21711

    Management of companies and enterprises1,9591,9121,733(226)

    Administrative and waste services3,6843,8964,505821

    Educational services13,50812,31511,988(1,520)

    Health care and social assistance20,07820,39820,844766

    Arts, entertainment, and recreation1,0581,0241,10648

    Accommodation and food services8,4108,0938,182(228)

    Other services, except public administration3,2913,1773,213(78)

    Public administration6,4476,2466,232(215)

    Tables below are for attendees but not for presentationScroll right for Ouachita, Lincoln, Morehouse, Union Parishes

    NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimatedNAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimated2006-2NAICSTotal UnitsAvg Qtrly EmploymentQtrly wagesAverage weekly wageAnnual Wages $NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEestimated

    2006-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $2006-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $MOREHOUSE6167,33349,843,176523.00199428268.002006-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $annual wages

    OUACHITA Parish4,70971,478547,687,4165892,189,228,184Lincoln Parish1,15718,254126,849,405535507,826,280Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11553642,015,5824268,063,328UNION4105,65534,503,352469137,914,140

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11231791,315,6145655,259,020Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11324002,089,2474028,361,600Mining212***n/aAgriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting1119149929,1234803,719,040

    Mining21261271,308,6267935,236,972Mining21121752,615,375115010,465,000Utilities221171732,7377942,931,448Mining21321212,092777848,484

    Utilities22245525,277,13873521,097,440Utilities22231331,250,7497235,000,268Construction23473642,435,8035159,747,920Utilities221178478,6554721,914,432

    Construction234393,78630,429,902618121,666,896Construction231001,0188,302,31062733,190,872Manufacturing31-3316***n/aConstruction23593752,302,9584729,204,000

    Manufacturing31-331607,04878,432,897856313,720,576Manufacturing31-33351,49614,773,58076059,121,920Wholesale trade42242512,602,37179810,415,496Manufacturing31-3315****

    Wholesale trade422602,67626,862,129772107,425,344Wholesale trade42568808,350,96573033,404,800Retail trade44-451009855,347,04741821,409,960Wholesale trade4216109635,1544482,539,264

    Retail trade44-457409,24947,941,276399191,898,252Retail trade44-451782,31511,446,06938045,744,400Transportation and warehousing48-49311741,428,2926315,709,288Retail trade44-45705743,311,84844413,252,512

    Transportation and warehousing48-491391,91117,570,67970770,256,004Transportation and warehousing48-49462932,887,17875811,548,888Information518104652,1684822,606,656Transportation and warehousing48-4927116891,6495913,564,912

    Information51911,81116,123,92168564,507,820Information51181831,504,0836326,014,112Finance and insurance52502301,874,7546277,498,920Information51546397,9676651,590,680

    Finance and insurance523863,53131,870,506694127,426,728Finance and insurance52946946,662,45873826,632,944Real estate and rental and leasing532692410,3543431,640,912Finance and insurance5223120899,9965773,600,480

    Real estate and rental and leasing532291,1797,202,23647028,814,760Real estate and rental and leasing53602541,333,6394045,336,032Professional and technical services5432107634,8904562,537,184Real estate and rental and leasing5371575,828389303,420

    Professional and technical services544712,49922,934,13170691,743,288Professional and technical services54934213,404,86762213,616,824Management of companies and enterprises5500000Professional and technical services542394573,8004702,297,360

    Management of companies and enterprises55191,42720,761,9591,11983,034,276Management of companies and enterprises557671,161,3331,3334,644,172Administrative and waste services561371296,0953211,185,132Management of companies and enterprises5500000

    Administrative and waste services562143,28316,768,63539367,091,388Administrative and waste services56536293,668,07544914,685,892Educational services614***n/aAdministrative and waste services561899534,9834162,141,568

    Educational services61356,93260,407,458670241,510,880Educational services61123,61128,666,945611114,728,692Health care and social assistance62761,6229,046,79742936,183,576Educational services614****

    Health care and social assistance6256112,779101,955,512614408,007,912Health care and social assistance621073,20319,591,52347178,447,876Arts, entertainment, and recreation71548192,612309771,264Health care and social assistance62351,1066,171,85442924,672,648

    Arts, entertainment, and recreation71517922,691,78926110,749,024Arts, entertainment, and recreation71976192,979195770,640Accommodation and food services72304771,091,7181764,365,504Arts, entertainment, and recreation71638130,845265523,640

    Accommodation and food services722796,11317,311,92821869,296,968Accommodation and food services72781,6623,653,98816914,605,656Other services, except public administration8151211736,8102692,951,468Accommodation and food services7217232551,1941832,207,712

    Other services, except public administration814272,41512,149,02038748,599,460Other services, except public administration81963121,631,7504026,522,048Public administration92344082,786,88252511,138,400Other services, except public administration812462380,2024721,521,728

    Public administration92983,12327,698,644682110,754,072Public administration92414233,605,46765614,429,376*Data Non-publishablePublic administration92232921,816,3344787,257,952

    *Data Non-publishable

    NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimatedNAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimated2005-2NAICSTotal UnitsAvg Qtrly EmploymentQtrly wagesAverage weekly wageAnnual Wages $NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEestimated

    2005-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $2005-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $MOREHOUSE6097,56350,848,479517.18203393916.002005-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $annual wages

    OUACHITA Parish4,59570,913522,068,135566.312,088,272,540Lincoln Parish1,10617,621119,094,309519.90476,377,236Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11543821,908,618384.347,634,472UNION3955,81832,348,966427.70129,395,864

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting1121127915,023554.223,660,092Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11302721,512,658427.796,050,632Mining21****n/aAgriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11262011,227,334469.704,909,336

    Mining2123119998,642645.533,994,568Mining21111081,228,208874.794,912,832Utilities221174760,948791.013,043,792Mining21*****

    Utilities22255235,522,152812.2022,088,608Utilities22241301,094,886647.864,379,544Construction23513822,645,953532.8110,583,812Utilities221074468,932487.461,875,728

    Construction234333,41125,970,465585.67103,881,860Construction23911,0597,209,452523.6828,837,808Manufacturing31-33****n/aConstruction23513892,154,353426.018,617,412

    Manufacturing31-331607,42677,228,283799.98308,913,132Manufacturing31-33371,58816,866,855817.0367,467,420Wholesale trade42222362,356,748768.179,426,992Manufacturing31-33*****

    Wholesale trade422562,56922,829,970683.5991,319,880Wholesale trade42588367,229,838665.2428,919,352Retail trade44-451021,1035,409,000377.2221,636,000Wholesale trade421582576,846541.132,307,384

    Retail trade44-457109,03044,415,352378.36177,661,408Retail trade44-451732,1119,876,046359.8739,504,184Transportation and warehousing48-49251641,409,524661.135,638,096Retail trade44-45715812,832,633375.0311,330,532

    Transportation and warehousing48-491331,87017,138,353704.9968,553,412Transportation and warehousing48-49412992,835,821729.5711,343,284Information5111110806,127563.733,224,508Transportation and warehousing48-49241421,024,377554.924,097,508

    Information51901,77615,721,800680.9562,887,200Information51181881,523,440623.346,093,760Finance and insurance52472421,844,941586.447,379,764Information51540387,535745.261,550,140

    Finance and insurance523813,72131,406,202649.25125,624,808Finance and insurance52826076,121,820775.8024,487,280Real estate and rental and leasing5326117420,028276.151,680,112Finance and insurance5222156964,813475.753,859,252

    Real estate and rental and leasing532189666,161,318490.6324,645,272Real estate and rental and leasing53582591,537,237456.566,148,948Professional and technical services5433105718,681526.512,874,724Real estate and rental and leasing5382167,709248.02270,836

    Professional and technical services544702,51520,595,124629.9282,380,496Professional and technical services54853772,814,237574.2211,256,948Management of companies and enterprises550000.000Professional and technical services542165492,346582.661,969,384

    Management of companies and enterprises55201,61523,991,2051142.7195,964,820Management of companies and enterprises556601,071,8221374.134,287,288Administrative and waste services561471296,328321.051,185,312Management of companies and enterprises550000.000

    Administrative and waste services562063,21614,489,337346.5757,957,348Administrative and waste services56565793,092,349410.8312,369,396Educational services61****n/aAdministrative and waste services5614162697,233331.072,788,932

    Educational services61366,95658,490,479646.82233,961,916Educational services6193,59528,179,293602.96112,717,172Health care and social assistance62691,5028,013,758410.4132,055,032Educational services61*****

    Health care and social assistance6255012,73998,811,271596.66395,245,084Health care and social assistance621003,02618,215,549463.0572,862,196Arts, entertainment, and recreation71548220,918354.04883,672Health care and social assistance62349184,726,351396.0418,905,404

    Arts, entertainment, and recreation71437192,417,184258.619,668,736Arts, entertainment, and recreation71968153,283173.40613,132Accommodation and food services7231468992,736163.173,970,944Arts, entertainment, and recreation71640150,136288.72600,544

    Accommodation and food services722675,97715,801,555203.3663,206,220Accommodation and food services72781,6873,499,754159.5813,999,016Other services, except public administration8152205670,753251.692,683,012Accommodation and food services7216309539,130134.212,156,520

    Other services, except public administration814232,38211,426,654369.0145,706,616Other services, except public administration81913321,575,474365.036,301,896Public administration92344012,665,836511.3810,663,344Other services, except public administration812461365,037460.321,460,148

    Public administration92983,19827,460,736660.53109,842,944Public administration92414263,400,651614.0613,602,604*Data Non-publishablePublic administration92232861,916,687515.527,666,748

    *Data Non-publishable

    NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimatedNAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimatedNAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimatedNAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimated

    Change 2005 to 2006CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $Change 2005 to 2006CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $Change 2005 to 2006CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $Change 2005 to 2006CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $

    Ouachita Parish11456525,619,28123100,955,644Lincoln Parish516337,755,0961531,449,044Lincoln Parish7(230)(1,005,303)6-3,965,648Lincoln Parish15(163)2,154,386418,518,276

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11252400,591111,598,928Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting112128576,589(26)2,310,968Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting111(18)106,96442428,856Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11(7)(52)(298,211)10-1,190,296

    Mining2138309,9841471,242,404Mining211671,387,1672755,552,168Mining21*****Mining21*****

    Utilities22(1)29(245,014)(77)-991,168Utilities22(1)3155,86375620,724Utilities220(3)(28,211)3-112,344Utilities225****

    Construction2363754,459,4373217,785,036Construction239(41)1,092,8581034,353,064Construction23(4)(18)(210,150)(18)-835,892Construction238(14)148,60546586,588

    Manufacturing31-330(378)1,204,614564,807,444Manufacturing31-33(2)(92)(2,093,275)(57)-8,345,500Manufacturing31-33*****Manufacturing31-33*****

    Wholesale trade4241074,032,1598816,105,464Wholesale trade42(2)441,121,127654,485,448Wholesale trade42215245,62330988,504Wholesale trade421234314,803501,257,528

    Retail trade44-45302193,525,9242114,236,844Retail trade44-4552041,570,023206,240,216Retail trade44-45(2)(118)(61,953)41-226,040Retail trade44-45(1)(7)479,215691,921,980

    Transportation and warehousing48-49641432,32621,702,592Transportation and warehousing48-495(6)51,35728205,604Transportation and warehousing48-4961018,768(30)71,192Transportation and warehousing48-493(26)(132,728)36-532,596

    Information51135402,12141,620,620Information510(5)(19,357)9-79,648Information51(3)(6)(153,959)(82)-617,852Information510610,432(80)40,540

    Finance and insurance525(190)464,304451,801,920Finance and insurance521287540,638(38)2,145,664Finance and insurance523(12)29,81341119,156Finance and insurance521(36)(64,817)101-258,772

    Real estate and rental and leasing53112131,040,918(21)4,169,488Real estate and rental and leasing532(5)(203,598)(53)-812,916Real estate and rental and leasing530(25)(9,674)67-39,200Real estate and rental and leasing53(1)(6)8,11914132,584

    Professional and technical services541(16)2,339,007769,362,792Professional and technical services54844590,630482,359,876Professional and technical services54(1)2(83,791)(71)-337,540Professional and technical services5422981,454(113)327,976

    Management of companies and enterprises55(1)(188)(3,229,246)(24)-12,930,544Management of companies and enterprises551789,511(41)356,884Management of companies and enterprises5500000Management of companies and enterprises554****

    Administrative and waste services568672,279,298469,134,040Administrative and waste services56(3)50575,726382,316,496Administrative and waste services56(1)0(233)(0)-180Administrative and waste services564(63)(162,250)85-647,364

    Educational services61(1)(24)1,916,979237,548,964Educational services61316487,65282,011,520Educational services61*****Educational services61*****

    Health care and social assistance6211403,144,2411712,762,828Health care and social assistance6271771,375,97485,585,680Health care and social assistance6271201,033,039194,128,544Health care and social assistance6211881,445,503335,767,244

    Arts, entertainment, and recreation71873274,60521,080,288Arts, entertainment, and recreation710839,69622157,508Arts, entertainment, and recreation7100(28,306)(45)-112,408Arts, entertainment, and recreation710(2)(19,291)(24)-76,904

    Accommodation and food services72121361,510,373156,090,748Accommodation and food services720(25)154,2349606,640Accommodation and food services72(1)998,98213394,560Accommodation and food services721(77)12,0644951,192

    Other services, except public administration81433722,366182,892,844Other services, except public administration815(20)56,27637220,152Other services, except public administration81(1)666,05717268,456Other services, except public administration810115,1651261,580

    Public administration920(75)237,90821911,128Public administration920(3)204,81642826,772Public administration9207121,04614475,056Public administration9206(100,353)(38)-408,796

    slide 8 new car sales

    Slide for Ouachita only -- call me at 791-1877 when you get to this one so we can discuss. Thanks, Bob.

    Estimated retail activity in Ouachita Parish 2004-2006 (current $)

    januaryfebruarymarchaprilmayjunejulyaugustseptemberoctobernovemberdecember

    Estimated Retail sales less est motor vehicle sales 2004$142,413,530$143,189,032$169,927,547$159,038,697$152,879,597$167,596,047$155,865,051$151,394,433$165,316,419$142,914,740$153,208,492$207,729,810

    Estimated Retail sales less est motor vehicle sales 2005$150,128,101$148,698,605$160,924,892$148,326,265$163,636,768$171,443,904$160,763,229$166,648,609$183,872,271$160,054,175$160,146,052$227,322,628

    Estimated Retail sales less est motor vehicle sales 2006$164,345,731$162,486,040$197,695,613$176,551,886$176,453,606$195,119,844$178,908,148$177,323,415$190,517,745$164,299,550$171,864,348$244,015,170

    januaryfebruarymarchaprilmayjunejulyaugustseptemberoctobernovemberdecember

    %change 2004-20055.42%3.85%-5.30%-6.74%7.04%2.30%3.14%10.08%11.22%11.99%4.53%9.43%

    %change 2005-20069.47%9.27%22.85%19.03%7.83%13.81%11.29%6.41%3.61%2.65%7.32%7.34%

    3month average change 2005n/an/a1.32%-2.73%-1.67%0.87%4.16%5.17%8.15%11.10%9.25%8.65%

    3month average change 20067.81%9.39%13.86%17.05%16.57%13.56%10.98%10.50%7.10%4.22%4.53%5.77%

    estimated annual retail sales less auto 20041,911,473,395Ann % changeestimated annual auto sales 2004$233,187,908Ann % change

    estimated annual retail sales less auto 20052,001,965,4994.7%estimated annual auto sales 2005$242,787,6544.1%

    estimated annual retail sales less auto 20062,199,581,0979.9%estimated annual auto sales 2006$237,312,705-2.3%

    Estimated retail activity in Ouachita Parish 2004-2006 (constant 2007 $)

    januaryfebruarymarchaprilmayjunejulyaugustseptemberoctobernovemberdecember

    recomputed less auto adjusted for inflation 2004$155,652,144$155,659,243$183,543,513$171,233,919$163,645,037$178,830,371$166,576,453$161,713,222$176,212,155$151,536,040$162,365,707$220,955,529

    recomputed less auto adjusted for inflation 2005$159,351,493$156,928,972$168,514,087$154,283,706$170,384,259$178,421,538$166,535,567$171,753,284$187,216,748$162,638,183$164,049,207$233,809,640

    recomputed less auto adjusted for inflation 2006$167,756,962$165,524,782$200,284,060$177,354,474$176,380,411$194,654,403$177,955,143$176,032,842$190,063,282$164,801,079$172,645,627$244,760,033

    januaryfebruarymarchaprilmay

    %change 2004-20052.38%0.82%-8.19%-9.90%4.12%-0.23%-0.02%6.21%6.25%7.33%1.04%5.82%

    %change 2005-20065.27%5.48%18.85%14.95%3.52%9.10%6.86%2.49%1.52%1.33%5.24%4.68%

    3month average change 2005n/an/a-1.67%-5.76%-4.66%-2.00%1.29%1.99%4.14%6.59%4.87%4.73%

    3month average change 20064.04%5.52%9.87%13.09%12.44%9.19%6.49%6.15%3.62%1.78%2.70%3.75%

    estimated annual retail recomputed adj less auto 20042,047,923,335Ann % changeestimated annual auto sales 2004$249,853,005Ann % change

    estimated annual retail recomputed adj less auto 20052,073,886,6831.3%estimated annual auto sales 2005$251,614,0360.7%

    estimated annual retail recomputed adj less auto 20062,208,213,0986.5%estimated annual auto sales 2006$238,254,422-5.3%

    slide for lincoln only

    Estimated retail activity in Lincoln Parish 2004-2006 (current $)

    200620052004% chg 05-06% chg 04-05

    Lincoln Parish retail sales$1,197,414,920$1,062,981,328$968,462,45112.6%9.8%

    less auto and service stations$141,101,410$143,158,210$169,591,465-1.4%-15.6%

    Net non-auto retail sales$1,056,313,510$919,823,118$798,870,98614.8%15.1%

    Estimated retail activity in Lincoln Parish 2004-2006 (constant 2007 $)

    200620052004% chg 05-06% chg 04-05

    Lincoln Parish retail sales$1,202,166,567$1,101,625,299$1,037,674,9619.1%6.2%

    less auto and service stations$141,661,336$148,362,631$181,711,554-4.5%-18.4%

    Net non-auto retail sales$1,060,505,230$953,262,668$855,963,40711.3%11.4%

    Real per-capita non-auto estimated retail Sales

    constant 07 $OuachitaLincoln

    2006$14,742$24,867

    2005$13,990$22,639

    2004$13,815$20,243

    slide 9 new construction

    New Vehicle Registrations

    Total Vehicle Sales

    200420052006chg 04-06

    NE LA14,92515,15415,163238

    Ouachita6,5276,8626,725198

    Lincoln1,9131,9261,97865

    Morehouse1,1851,0121,036-149

    Union1,0331,057978-55

    Louisiana240,203260,050294,25354,050

    Total Non-Fleet Car, Van and Light Truck Sales

    200420052006chg 04-06

    NE LA14,18114,45014,486305

    Ouachita6,1086,4086,326218

    Lincoln1,7591,8081,82364

    Morehouse1,1439881,010-133

    Union1,0111,025961-50

    Louisiana216,834234,061266,86050,026

    Slide 10 population

    Total Construction Permits/Projects 2005 and 2006

    Cummulative to Date- December 2006

    Residential PermitsNumber of ProjectsDwelling UnitsThousands of Square FeetValue (millions $)Value of Permits in January 2007 millions of Constant Dollars ($)

    20062005200620052006200520062005%Change20062005

    Total Ouachita and Union7615417635461,6031,142$122.7$83.846$123.2$86.9

    Ouachita, LA5143975164021,082838$89.9$65.537$90.3$67.9

    Union, LA247144247144522304$32.7$18.379$32.8$19.0

    * Square Feet in Thousands and Value in $Millions.

    *Source: December 2006 Dodge Report

    Cummulative to Date- December 2006

    Non-Residential PermitsNumber of ProjectsThousands of Square FeetValue (millions $)Value of Permits in January 2007 millions of Constant Dollars ($)

    200620052006200520062005%Change20062005

    Commercial131223954$25.2$5.6*$25.3$5.8

    Manufacturing0000$0.0$0.00$0.0$0.0

    Manufacturing0000$0.0$0.00$0.0$0.0

    Dormitories02061$0.0$10.4$0.0$10.8

    Hospital & Health Treatment533714$5.7$2.5*$5.7$2.6

    Public Buildings13627$0.9$3.4-74$0.9$3.5

    Religious444492$4.9$6.2-22$4.9$6.4

    Amusement04020$0.0$7.9$0.0$8.2

    Miscellaneous Non-Res.1189$0.7$0.536$0.7$0.5

    * Square Feet in Thousands and Value in $Millions.

    * In the %Change Column, increases of 100% or more are indicated by *.

    *Source: December 2006 Dodge Report

    Make one slide from the data below:

    Ouachita and Union ParishNumber of ProjectsThousands of Square FeetValue (millions $)Value of Permits in January 2007 millions of Constant Dollars ($)2007200620052004

    20062005200620052006200520062005590456655907actualempl

    Total Construction Projects81559620161421$252.6$206.7$253.6$214.24,553.973,846.73predictedempl lagged

    Total Building Projects78957320161421$167.5$121.7$168.2$126.1

    Residential76154116031142$122.7$83.8$123.2$86.9

    Non-residential2832412279$44.8$37.9$45.0$39.3707.25empl chg

    Total Non-building2623----$85.1$85.0$85.4$88.130628avg wages

    New Residential permits --Ouachita Parish only452396n/an/a$74.7$59.0$75.0$61.121661556.2459552

    *Source: December 2006 Dodge Report

    LA DOTD New Permit Residential Construction

    179.920021.125069483

    195.320051.0363543267

    201.620061.003968254

    202.420071

    slide 11 real estate

    Can we place this little chart below the bar chart?

    Make a Bar Chart for the yellow data below.

    Migration and Natural Increase 2000 to 2005

    July 1st Population estimates for 2000, 2005, 2006Net International In-MigrationNet Domestic In-Migration

    NE LAOuachitaLincolnMorehouseUnionLincoln295-1,818

    1-Jul-06306,775149,78842,64729,71522,199Morehouse3-1,460

    1-Jul-05306,875148,23742,10829,98922,901Ouachita247-4,134

    1-Jul-00311,163147,23242,48230,98322,780Union86-316

    Source: U.S. Census BureauLouisiana20,174-89,547

    July 1st Estimated Population 2000 to 2006

    NE LAOuachitaLincolnMorehouseUnionLouisianaUS

    1-Jul-06306,775149,78842,64729,71522,1994,287,768299,398,484

    1-Jul-05306,875148,23742,10829,98922,9014,523,628296,507,061

    1-Jul-04308,272148,23842,28530,38322,8514,506,685293,638,158

    1-Jul-03308,877147,69142,10830,59222,9044,490,380290,796,023

    1-Jul-02308,749147,07341,85830,51422,8104,475,003288,125,973

    1-Jul-01309,113146,39742,02730,68322,8904,465,258285,226,284

    1-Jul-00311,163147,23242,48230,98322,7804,469,495282,216,952

    Percent Change in Population

    % Change for 2000 to 2005% Change for 2005 to 2006

    RLMA 8-1.38%-0.03%

    Ouachita0.68%1.05%

    Lincoln-0.88%1.28%

    Morehouse-3.21%-0.91%

    Union0.53%-3.07%

    Louisiana1.21%-5.21%

    United States5.06%0.98%

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau

    Cummulative Estimate Components of Population Change: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006

    Geographic AreaTotal Population Change*Natural IncreaseNet Migration

    TotalBirthsDeathsTotalNet International MigrationNet Internal Migration

    United States17,973,88210,324,37225,486,56915,162,1977,649,5107,649,510-

    .Louisiana-181,190145,355410,364265,009-308,24822,244-330,492

    Suggested Citation:

    Table 4: Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change for the United States, Regions and States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 (NST-EST2006-04)

    Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau

    Release Date: December 22, 2006

    data not yet availabe for parishes on census

    Migration and Natural Increase 2000 to 2005

    Total Population ChangeBirthsDeathsNet International In-MigrationNet Domestic In-MigrationNet Natural (Births minus Deaths)

    Caldwell3669704053(35)

    East Carroll-6657705398-884231

    Franklin-8831,6261,46219-1,046164

    Jackson-2621,1091,1070-2412

    Lincoln-4012,9171,745295-1,8181,172

    Madison-1,27196875425-1,494214

    Morehouse-1,0322,3941,9283-1,460466

    Ouachita98712,2557,222247-4,1345,033

    Richland-4551,5881,3098-720279

    Tensas-49349338125-616112

    Union981,6881,32686-316362

    West Carroll-5087858044-478(19)

    Louisiana54,670350,818220,92920,174-89,547129,889

    *Source: U.S. Census Bureau

    slide 12 Guide plant

    first real estate slide is current price data (blue)

    Existing home sales: Sold price greater than $50,000 (current $ comparison)*

    Yearsold pricedays on mktsellppsqftsold price/ask pricesold ppsqft/ask ppsqfttotal homes soldlistedsold/listed

    2003$140,202114$68.8896.3%96.6%1613176691.3%

    2004$140,280116$69.8596.4%96.6%1702248268.6%

    2005$149,127117$72.9896.5%96.9%1903271570.1%

    2006$148,869114$75.0496.3%96.7%1917297864.4%

    Existing home sales: Sold price greater than $200,000 (current $ comparison)

    Yearsold pricedays on mktsellppsqftsold price/ask pricesold ppsqft/ask ppsqfttotal homes soldlistedsold/listed

    2003$277,994139$95.5795.8%96.2%23228681.1%

    2004$280,341150$94.0696.0%96.4%25345455.7%

    2005$291,031144$98.9196.1%96.8%33856060.4%

    2006$288,558140$101.3695.7%96.3%34066751.0%

    *data includes Ouachita and contiguous parishes.

    second real estate slide is adjusted for inflation (sort of yellow)

    Existing home sales: Sold price greater than $50,000 (constant 2007 $)

    Yearsold pricedays on mktsellppsqftsell price - asking pricesellppft-askppft

    2003$153,613114$75.47-$5,897-$2.63

    2004$149,711116$74.55-$5,603-$2.60

    2005$153,938117$75.33-$5,526-$2.39

    2006$148,869114$75.04-$5,725-$2.58

    Existing home sales: Sold price greater than $200,000 (constant 2007 $)

    Yearsold pricedays on mktsellppsqftsold price/ask pricesold ppsqft/ask ppsqft

    2003$304,585139$104.71-$13,478-$4.15

    2004$299,189150$100.38-$12,502-$3.71

    2005$300,419144$102.10-$12,256-$3.43

    2006$288,558140$101.36-$12,880-$3.87

    One slide with both tables below.

    Guide plant Closure: approximate long-run impact of closure on region, everything else equal.

    Direct effectIndirect effectTotal estimated impactImpact % of NE total

    Change in household income$53,000,000$50,164,500$103,164,5003.2%

    Change in employment800169424941.9%

    avg annual wage/job$66,250

    Forecast Medium Term Outcome 2007-08

    JobsWage/salary income

    gains (construction driven)625$20,085,000

    losses

    direct loss due to closure of Guide-800($35,609,600)

    Medium term (1st year) indirect losses-750($22,971,000)

    Net medium term losses-925($38,495,600)

    Forecast unempl rate and change in income4.5-5.0%-1.2%

    change over 2006 levelsavg week wage

    Construction employment + secondary empl625618$20,085,000

    Retail Employment399$0

    manufacturing-800856($35,609,600)

    miscelaneous associated Guide jobs-738.97675589($22,633,380)

    total employment (change jobs)-914($38,157,980)

    Unemployment rate4.5-5.0%

    Wage and Salarytotal ouach wages$3,129,568,060

    change in jobsunempl rate

    20052006restaurant-319.7278131898

    REGIONAL LABOR MARKET AREA 8111,739112,003retail-634.815455103

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting2,4472,182total employment effet2493.52925

    Mining197236direct empl-8006028

    Utilities915940738.976750.0457019818

    Construction5,6655,904

    Manufacturing12,52611,649

    Wholesale trade3,8863,963guide naics336300

    Retail trade14,40114,577

    Transportation and warehousing2,9973,019

    Information2,1082,143

    Finance and insurance4,9174,697

    Real estate and rental and leasing1,3841,577

    Professional and technical services3,1473,217

    Management of companies and enterprises1,9121,733

    Administrative and waste services3,8964,505

    Educational services12,31511,988

    Health care and social assistance20,39820,844

    Arts, entertainment, and recreation1,0241,106

    Accommodation and food services8,0938,182

    Other services, except public administration3,1773,213

    Public administration6,2466,232

    Chart3

    0.0390.0750.076

    0.0320.0640.06

    0.0370.0660.067

    0.0550.0980.104

    0.0320.0640.067

    0.0350.0620.064

    0.050.0520.057

    Jul-06

    Jul-05

    Jul-04

    Unemployment Rates NE LA, LA, US

    Slides 1 and 2 LF

    Use July data tables for slide

    Civilian Labor Force data -- July household survey data figures 2004-2006

    Civilian Labor ForceJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 8131,898139,774139,612

    Ouachita70,97374,01773,811

    Lincoln17,94118,89118,794

    Morehouse11,18212,09412,318

    Union10,21810,66210,705

    Louisiana1,894,1192,158,9292,098,395

    United States153,208,000151,122,000149,217,000

    Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    *July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    EmploymentJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 8126,795129,363129,011

    Ouachita68,68969,30069,348

    Lincoln7,0717,4067,336

    Morehouse10,56810,91111,031

    Union9,8959,9839,990

    Louisiana1,827,2222,024,1291,964,192

    United States145,606,000143,283,000140,700,000

    Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    *July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    UnemploymentJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 85,10310,41110,601

    Ouachita2,2844,7174,463

    Lincoln6661,2521,258

    Morehouse6141,1831,287

    Union323679715

    Louisiana66,897134,800134,203

    United States7,602,0007,839,0008,518,000

    Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    *July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    Unemployment Rates (%)Jul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 83.9%7.5%7.6%

    Ouachita3.2%6.4%6.0%

    Lincoln3.7%6.6%6.7%

    Morehouse5.5%9.8%10.4%

    Union3.2%6.4%6.7%

    Louisiana3.5%6.2%6.4%

    United States5.0%5.2%5.7%

    Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)Civilian Labor Force data -- July household survey data figures 2004-2006

    *July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revisedCivilian Labor ForceJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    RLMA 8131,898139,774139,612

    Ouachita70,97374,01773,811

    Lincoln17,94118,89118,794

    Morehouse11,18212,09412,318

    December data is for attendees to have but not for presentationUnion10,21810,66210,705

    Same tables as above but December data -- year over yearLouisiana1,894,1192,158,9292,098,395

    DEC. of 04 to 06United States153,208,000151,122,000149,217,000

    (monthly, not seasonally adjusted)Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    Civilian Labor ForceDec-04Dec-05Dec-06(monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    RLMA 8135,327132,759128,634*July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    Ouachita71,95271,71368,468

    Lincoln18,50118,22417,634EmploymentJul-06Jul-05Jul-04

    Morehouse11,81611,32710,819RLMA 8126,795129,363129,011

    Union10,48810,2909,882Ouachita68,68969,30069,348

    Louisiana2,073,5411,896,9941,858,131Lincoln7,0717,4067,336

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and Midyear EstimatesMorehouse10,56810,91111,031

    *Dec-06 are preliminary figuresUnion9,8959,9839,990

    Louisiana1,827,2222,024,1291,964,192

    EmploymentDec-04Dec-05Dec-06United States145,606,000143,283,000140,700,000

    RLMA 8126,286125,756122,842Source: www.laworks.net, Department of Labor

    Ouachita68,24168,55465,971(monthly, not seasonally adjusted)

    Lincoln17,47017,32916,972*July 2006 is a preliminary figure, 2004 and 2005 figures are revised

    Morehouse10,70410,57410,054

    Union9,8319,8759,503

    Louisiana1,963,1331,787,1371,787,911

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and Midyear Estimates

    *Dec-06 are preliminary figures

    UnemploymentDec-04Dec-05Dec-06

    RLMA 89,0417,0035,792

    Ouachita3,7113,1592,497

    Lincoln1,031895662

    Morehouse1,112753765

    Union657415379

    Louisiana110,408109,85770,220

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and Midyear Estimates

    *Dec-06 are preliminary figures

    Unemployment Rates (%)Dec-04Dec-05Dec-06

    RLMA 86.7%5.3%4.5%

    Ouachita5.24.43.6

    Lincoln5.64.93.8

    Morehouse9.46.67.1

    Union6.34.03.8

    Louisiana5.35.83.8

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and Midyear Estimates

    *Dec-06 are preliminary figures

    Slides 1 and 2 LF

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    Jul-06

    Jul-05

    Jul-04

    Unemployment in Ne Louisiana

    slide 3 and 4 wage and salaries

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    Jul-06

    Jul-05

    Jul-04

    Unemplyment Rates NE LA, LA, US

    slide 4.5 and 5 Emp by indust

    slide 3 -- current dollar valuesslide 4 -- Constant 2007 $ values)

    Estimated Annual Wages (current $)Estimated Annual Wages (constant 2007 $)

    2004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 22004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 2

    RLMA 82,963,442,7683,057,447,2143,244,054,892RLMA 8$3,197,485,242$3,203,293,143$3,129,568,060

    Ouachita2,013,686,1482,088,272,5402,189,228,184Ouachita$2,172,720,124$2,187,887,031$2,117,409,697

    Lincoln481,479,696476,377,236507,826,280Lincoln$519,505,299$499,101,318$484,636,879

    Morehouse211,670,100203,393,916199,428,268Morehouse$228,387,073$213,096,185$211,985,389

    Union126,313,292129,395,864137,914,140Union$136,289,079$135,568,288$132,630,204

    Louisiana57,826,590,71760,896,082,36264,193,286,560Louisiana$62,393,535,110$63,800,938,962$62,391,506,107

    Source: www.laworks.netSource: www.laworks.net

    Average Weekly Wages (current $)Average Weekly Wage (constant 2007 $)

    2004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 22004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 2

    RLMA 8502526557RLMA 8$541$551$562

    Ouachita534566589Ouachita$577$593$594

    Lincoln510520535Lincoln$550$545$540

    Morehouse527517523Morehouse$569$542$528

    Union412428469Union$445$448$473

    Louisiana592617680Louisiana$639$646$686

    Source: www.laworks.net

    Average Employment

    2004-QTR 22005-QTR 22006-QTR 2

    RLMA 8113,615111,739112,003

    Ouachita72,45570,91371,478

    Lincoln18,15617,62118,254

    Morehouse7,7217,5637,333

    Union5,8965,8185,655

    Louisiana1,878,5261,899,4981,815,421

    Source: www.laworks.net

    slide 6-7 retail

    Make slide 4.5 from below

    Net change in employment data from establishment data

    year-qtrNew Orleans (RLMA 1)Baton Rouge (RLMA 2)Houma (RLMA 3)Lafayette (RLMA 4)Lake Charles (RLMA 5)Alexandria (RLMA 6)Shreveport (RLMA 7)Monroe (RLMA 8)

    2006-2477,750408,22693,150262,194112,994107,051235,175112,003

    2005-2605,447392,15488,857248,054113,409104,126230,368111,739

    2004-2608,264383,77587,845243,506110,151101,217225,729113,614

    net change to State

    2005-2006 change-127,69716,0724,29314,140-4152,9254,807264-85,611

    2004-2005 change-2,8178,3791,0124,5483,2582,9094,639-1,87520,053

    make slide 5 from the boxed table below

    2004 to 2006 changes in employment by occupation RLMA 8 (growth industries in yellow)

    2004200520062004-2006

    REGIONAL LABOR MARKET AREA 8113,615111,739112,003(1,612)

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting2,3972,4472,182(215)

    Mining283197236(47)

    Utilities91591594025

    Construction5,9075,6655,904(3)

    Manufacturing12,38812,52611,649(739)

    Wholesale trade3,8363,8863,963127

    Retail trade14,50414,40114,57773

    Transportation and warehousing2,8122,9973,019207

    Information2,2062,1082,143(63)

    Finance and insurance5,4214,9174,697(724)

    Real estate and rental and leasing1,2541,3841,577323

    Professional and technical services3,2063,1473,21711

    Management of companies and enterprises1,9591,9121,733(226)

    Administrative and waste services3,6843,8964,505821

    Educational services13,50812,31511,988(1,520)

    Health care and social assistance20,07820,39820,844766

    Arts, entertainment, and recreation1,0581,0241,10648

    Accommodation and food services8,4108,0938,182(228)

    Other services, except public administration3,2913,1773,213(78)

    Public administration6,4476,2466,232(215)

    Tables below are for attendees but not for presentationScroll right for Ouachita, Lincoln, Morehouse, Union Parishes

    NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimatedNAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimated2006-2NAICSTotal UnitsAvg Qtrly EmploymentQtrly wagesAverage weekly wageAnnual Wages $NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEestimated

    2006-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $2006-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $MOREHOUSE6167,33349,843,176523.00199428268.002006-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $annual wages

    OUACHITA Parish4,70971,478547,687,4165892,189,228,184Lincoln Parish1,15718,254126,849,405535507,826,280Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11553642,015,5824268,063,328UNION4105,65534,503,352469137,914,140

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11231791,315,6145655,259,020Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11324002,089,2474028,361,600Mining212***n/aAgriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting1119149929,1234803,719,040

    Mining21261271,308,6267935,236,972Mining21121752,615,375115010,465,000Utilities221171732,7377942,931,448Mining21321212,092777848,484

    Utilities22245525,277,13873521,097,440Utilities22231331,250,7497235,000,268Construction23473642,435,8035159,747,920Utilities221178478,6554721,914,432

    Construction234393,78630,429,902618121,666,896Construction231001,0188,302,31062733,190,872Manufacturing31-3316***n/aConstruction23593752,302,9584729,204,000

    Manufacturing31-331607,04878,432,897856313,720,576Manufacturing31-33351,49614,773,58076059,121,920Wholesale trade42242512,602,37179810,415,496Manufacturing31-3315****

    Wholesale trade422602,67626,862,129772107,425,344Wholesale trade42568808,350,96573033,404,800Retail trade44-451009855,347,04741821,409,960Wholesale trade4216109635,1544482,539,264

    Retail trade44-457409,24947,941,276399191,898,252Retail trade44-451782,31511,446,06938045,744,400Transportation and warehousing48-49311741,428,2926315,709,288Retail trade44-45705743,311,84844413,252,512

    Transportation and warehousing48-491391,91117,570,67970770,256,004Transportation and warehousing48-49462932,887,17875811,548,888Information518104652,1684822,606,656Transportation and warehousing48-4927116891,6495913,564,912

    Information51911,81116,123,92168564,507,820Information51181831,504,0836326,014,112Finance and insurance52502301,874,7546277,498,920Information51546397,9676651,590,680

    Finance and insurance523863,53131,870,506694127,426,728Finance and insurance52946946,662,45873826,632,944Real estate and rental and leasing532692410,3543431,640,912Finance and insurance5223120899,9965773,600,480

    Real estate and rental and leasing532291,1797,202,23647028,814,760Real estate and rental and leasing53602541,333,6394045,336,032Professional and technical services5432107634,8904562,537,184Real estate and rental and leasing5371575,828389303,420

    Professional and technical services544712,49922,934,13170691,743,288Professional and technical services54934213,404,86762213,616,824Management of companies and enterprises5500000Professional and technical services542394573,8004702,297,360

    Management of companies and enterprises55191,42720,761,9591,11983,034,276Management of companies and enterprises557671,161,3331,3334,644,172Administrative and waste services561371296,0953211,185,132Management of companies and enterprises5500000

    Administrative and waste services562143,28316,768,63539367,091,388Administrative and waste services56536293,668,07544914,685,892Educational services614***n/aAdministrative and waste services561899534,9834162,141,568

    Educational services61356,93260,407,458670241,510,880Educational services61123,61128,666,945611114,728,692Health care and social assistance62761,6229,046,79742936,183,576Educational services614****

    Health care and social assistance6256112,779101,955,512614408,007,912Health care and social assistance621073,20319,591,52347178,447,876Arts, entertainment, and recreation71548192,612309771,264Health care and social assistance62351,1066,171,85442924,672,648

    Arts, entertainment, and recreation71517922,691,78926110,749,024Arts, entertainment, and recreation71976192,979195770,640Accommodation and food services72304771,091,7181764,365,504Arts, entertainment, and recreation71638130,845265523,640

    Accommodation and food services722796,11317,311,92821869,296,968Accommodation and food services72781,6623,653,98816914,605,656Other services, except public administration8151211736,8102692,951,468Accommodation and food services7217232551,1941832,207,712

    Other services, except public administration814272,41512,149,02038748,599,460Other services, except public administration81963121,631,7504026,522,048Public administration92344082,786,88252511,138,400Other services, except public administration812462380,2024721,521,728

    Public administration92983,12327,698,644682110,754,072Public administration92414233,605,46765614,429,376*Data Non-publishablePublic administration92232921,816,3344787,257,952

    *Data Non-publishable

    NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimatedNAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEEstimated2005-2NAICSTotal UnitsAvg Qtrly EmploymentQtrly wagesAverage weekly wageAnnual Wages $NAICSTOTALAVERAGESECOND QUARTERAVERAGEestimated

    2005-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $2005-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $Annual Wages $MOREHOUSE6097,56350,848,479517.18203393916.002005-2CODEUNITSEMPLOY.TOTAL WAGES $WKLY. WAGE $annual wages

    OUACHITA Parish4,59570,913522,068,135566.312,088,272,540Lincoln Parish1,10617,621119,094,309519.90476,377,236Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11543821,908,618384.347,634,472UNION3955,81832,348,966427.70129,395,864

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting1121127915,023554.223,660,092Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11302721,512,658427.796,050,632Mining21****n/aAgriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting11262011,227,334469.704,909,336

    Mining2123119998,642645.533,994,568Mining21111081,228,208874.794,912,832Utilities221174760,948791.013,043,792Mining21*****

    Utilities22255235,522,152812.2022,088,608Utilities22241301,094,886647.864,379,544Construction23513822,645,953532.8110,583,812Utilities221074468,932487.461,875,728

    Construction234333,41125,970,465585.67103,881,860Construction23911,0597,209,452523.6828,837,808Manufacturing31-33****n/aConstruction23513892,154,353426.018,617,412

    Manufacturing31-331607,42677,228,283799.98308,913,132Manufacturing31-33371,58816,866,855817.0367,467,420Wholesale trade42222362,356,748768.179,426,992Manufacturing31-33*****

    Wholesale trade422562,56922,829,970683.5991,319,880Wholesale trade42588367,229,838665.2428,919,3