Dr. Linda L. Baer Great Plains IDEA Spring Meeting April 8, 2014

We are educating for careers that have not been created, using technology not yet invented to solve problems that havent been discovered. Shift Happens UTube

There are probably 500 colleges who are out of business already and they just dont know it yet.

2014: A Perfect Storm of Opportunity

2013: Our Vantage Point to the Future Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has been a sustaining innovation not transformative. Cost has grown at unsustainable rates. Economical learning/developmental solutions are ready to scale. Personalized, adaptive learning will be transformative. Current models and institutions lack the capacity and resilience to transform for the needs of tomorrow. A perception gap exists between institutional leaders and the campus community, on the urgency for change and transformation.

Major Trends College and university tuition and fees continued to rise, despite several tuition freeze experiments. Student debt rose throughout 2013, inspiring widespread anxiety. A number of institutions took drastic steps to stave off financial crisis, including merging with other campuses, ending academic programs, and laying off faculty sacrificing the queen. These events could be advance signs of ongoing issues on the horizon. http://bryanalexander.org/2013/12/31/trends-from-2013-the-higher-education-bubble/

Major Issues The number of students taking classes went down across many sectors. Some graduate programs suffered badly in 2013, most notably law schools, who saw declining revenues, applicants, graduates, and jobs. Outside of campuses, political pressures remained steady. Some of this occurred in partisan terms, as Republicans extended their criticism of public K-12 to all of higher education, sometimes with an anti-union dimension. However, 2013 also saw Democrats joining in for a full-court bipartisan press on higher education, from a presidential charge to build a new institutional assessment system to high-profile governors and mayors calling for reduced higher education fees. http://bryanalexander.org/2013/12/31/trends-from-2013-the-higher-education-bubble/ http://bryanalexander.org/2013/12/31/trends-from-2013-the-higher-education-bubble

Sacrificing the Queen Lets call this strategy academia sacrifices its queen.* Thats a risky chess move where one player gives up their most powerful piece in order to win the game. Bryan Alexanderacademia sacrifices its queen http://bryanalexander.org/?s=queen+sacrifice

Some American campuses are still cutting programs and faculty five years into the Great Recession/some-sort-of- recovery. The most recent examples: twelve Pennsylvania universities, one Minnesota university, one in Washington DC, one in Vermont. Added to the list: Maine, Franklin Pierce and Long Island. Adjuncts go, of course, but also tenure-track and tenured faculty. These schools are cutting programs and departments, which means tenures protection doesnt matter as much. http://bryanalexander.org/?s=queen+sacrifice

Transforming Higher Education Jump Shifts Learning Franchise Learner Driven Technology Synergies Just In Time Learning Perpetual Learning Unbundled Learning Experiences Unbundled Learning, Assessment and Certification Open, Seamless Systems Self-Informing/Correcting Systems Customizable Processes Learning Vision Pull Teaching Franchise Provider Driven Individual Technologies Time Out for Education Continuing Education Traditional Courses/Degrees Combined Teaching, Assessment and Certifying Fragmented, Proprietary Systems B ureaucratic Systems Rigid Processes Technology Push Michael Dolence and Donald Norris. Transforming Higher Education, 1995

Five Trends to Watch 11 1 1 Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware

Model challengers taking many forms

What is WGU Indiana? WGU Indiana is an online, competency-based university established by the state of Indiana through a partnership with Western Governors University to expand access to higher education for Indiana residents. Over 50 accredited online bachelors and masters degrees in high-demand career fields. Flexible, online study, allowing you to balance work, family, and school. Affordable tuition. WGU Indiana is a non-profit university. Several states building similar partnerships. http://indiana.wgu.edu/

Five Trends to Watch 14 2 2 Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization 1 1 Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware

Analytics is the universal decoder for education reform.

Strategic Intelligence for Higher Education

Solution Sets Coming to Market

Amazon features 19

Education Planning Counseling and Coaching Risk Targeting and Intervention Transfer and Articulation Legacy ERP/SIS/LMS Vendor point solutions Homegrown point solutions Direct-to- student Austin Peays Degree Compass Valencias LifeMap Sinclairs MAP Central Piedmonts Online Student Profile WICHEs Predictive Analytics Reporting The market is immature, but multiple solutions are emerging in each application category 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Adaptive Learning Educational method which uses computers as interactive teaching devices. Computers adapt the presentation of educational material according to students' weaknesses, as indicated by their responses to questions. The motivation is to allow electronic education to incorporate the value of the interactivity afforded to a student by an actual human teacher or tutor. The technology encompasses aspects derived from various fields of study including computer science, education, neuroscience, and psychology.

Knewton P REDICTION AND I NTERVENTION Course Signals Purdue

E DUCATION AND C AREER P OSITIONING S YSTEM Lone Star Community College http://studentalignment.com/home.html Map-in starting point and destination Routes to completion Time to destination progress Fuel for the journey Travel time to norm for the destination Highway for optimizing student success

Five Trends to Watch 2 2 Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization 3 3 Governing to Win 1 1 Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware

Complete College America Complete College America has developed the institutional roadmap to increase student success. The components include: Performance Funding Co-requisite Remediation Full time is full time Structured schedules Guided pathways to success http://www.completecollege.org/

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Graduate Program Evaluation Metrics Time-to-degree (masters and doctoral) Completion rate (masters and doctoral) 2 year masters 6-8 year for doctoral Advancement to candidacy rate Number of degrees awarded per year Percent doctoral students receiving full support Competitiveness of stipends with respect to AAU institutions Student placement in context of program goals Masters 2 years after completion Doctoral 5 years after completion Benchmark performance against national criteria by discipline Association of American Universities http://www.aau.edu

Five Trends to Watch 2 2 Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization 3 3 Governing to Win 1 1 Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware 4 4 DIYU is for real and new brands emerge

Do It Yourself University

New Brands?

Five Trends to Watch 2 2 Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization 3 3 Governing to Win 1 1 Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware 4 4 DIYU is for real and new brands emerge 5 5 Constructive Disruption, Reinvention and Transformation

Disrupting College: How Disruptive Innovation Can Deliver Quality and Affordability to Postsecondary Education Clayton M. Christensen, Michael B. Horn, Louis Caldera, Louis Soares http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/02/pdf/disrupting_college_execsumm.pdf

HOW TO THINK ABOUT REINVENTION

Reinvention Track A: Reposition the core business of the university, adapting legacy offerings to the disruptive marketplace. Track B: Create a separate, disruptive business unit to develop innovations that will become the source of future growth by addressing new or unmet value propositions. Gilbert, Eyring and Foster, Two Routes to Resilience, Harvard Business Review, December 2012

Reinvented Strategies Focus on real value propositions; enable learners to make choices that personalize experiences and manage the total cost of completion. Develop the organizational capacity for learning analytics and personalized learning to optimize learner success. Improve flexibility in the completion and certification of learning objectives and capacity to draw from external sources and receive transfer and credit for prior learning. Double down on the best value propositions of reinvented legacy programs, but add real-world experiences, globalism, innovation/entrepreneurship.

Reinvented Business Models Consciously reinvent business models for education, talent and leadership development, and research to achieve: Affordability ways to control and reduce total cost of completion Greater Flexibility ways to serve learners better, personalize experiences Reduced Time-to-completion ways to accelerate and enrich Alignment with emerging needs of society and career and employer needs Track A: Reinvent business models for legacy programs to compete in the face of disruptions Track B: Create new and separate disruptive enterprises to develop innovations that will be sources of new growth.

Examples from the Field Low-cost accelerated, competence-based models for baccalaureate degrees Western Governors University Southern New Hampshire $10,000 degree programs Accelerated completion Bridge programs Concurrent enrollment Credit for prior learning Transfer and course aggregators 3-year baccalaureates Control costs by limiting and reducing tuition Cost reductions, reinvented processes, shared services See McKinsey Report Winning by Degrees

Examples from the Field Limiting time-to-completion for graduate degrees Personalized Learning Systems Arizona State and Knewton The university has rolled out an ambitious effort to turn its classrooms into laboratories for technology-abetted adaptive learning -- a method that purports to give instructors real-time intelligence on how well each of their students is getting each concept. No More Excuses analytics for success and strategy New Alternatives and Competitors

Welcome to Strategies for Success! Graduate Student Success ASU https://graduate.asu.edu/grow/sfs Welcome to the Strategies for Success program of Graduate Education. Our goal is to help you be successful in your time at ASU and beyond. Your professional development, all of the things done outside your academics, can have a significant impact on your success as a student, on the job market, and as a professional.

Graduate Student Success Brochure University of Michigan How to Get the Mentoring You Want: A Guide for Graduate Students (PDF)... Outlines the services offered by Rackham's Graduate Student Success office. Graduate Student Success Brochure - Rackham Graduate School Graduate Student Success Brochure - Rackham Graduate School www.rackham.umich.edu/.../GSSBrochure.pdf

Student Success Center Graduate Student Success Center (GSSC) The Office of Graduate Student Development seeks to provide you with appropriate academic support services in the humanities, physical sciences, and social sciences. To this end, students are enrolled in a password-protected Blackboard site called the Graduate Student Success Center (GSSC). On this site, students have access to information regarding: study skills test-taking strategies time and stress management tutorial support writing assistance research skills career planning and preparation online course readiness assessment Students can log into the GSSC through Blackboard or through the Pfeiffer University website.

METRICS FOR BEST ONLINE GRADUATE EDUCATION PROGRAM RANKINGS Student Engagement Interact with instructors and classmates Instructors are accessible and responsive Instructors create an experience rewarding enough to stay enrolled and complete in a reasonable amount of time Admissions Selection Entering students have proven aptitudes, ambitions and accomplishments to handle the demands of rigorous course work Peer Reputation Industry opinion accounts for intangible factors on program quality Degrees with strong perceptions of quality among academics may be held in higher regard among employers http://www.usnews.com/education/online-education/articles/2014/01/07/about-the-top- online-education-programs-rankings-2014

METRICS FOR BEST ONLINE GRADUATE EDUCATION PROGRAM RANKINGS Faculty credentials and training Strong online programs employ instructors with academic credentials one would expect rom a campus-based program Invest resources to train these instructors on how to teach distance learners Student services and technology Incorporates diverse online learning technologies which allows greater flexibility for students to take classes from a distance Outside of classes, a strong support structure provides learning assistance, career guidance and financial aid resources commensurate with quality campus-based programs

EXAMPLES Arizona State University https://graduate.asu.edu/progress https://graduate.asu.edu/progress/steps/critical _policies_to_remember https://graduate.asu.edu/faculty_staff/policies TA and RA Policies https://graduate.asu.edu/faculty_staff/tara

Graduate Program Evaluation Metrics Time-to-degree (masters and doctoral) Completion rate (masters and doctoral) 2 year masters 6-8 year for doctoral Advancement to candidacy rate Number of degrees awarded per year Percent doctoral students receiving full support Competitiveness of stipends with respect to AAU institutions Student placement in context of program goals Masters 2 years after completion Doctoral 5 years after completion Benchmark performance against national criteria by discipline Association of American Universities http://www.aau.edu

Recommendations for Institutions Apply the correct business model for the task. Drive the disruptive innovation. Develop a strategy of focus. Frame online learning as a sustaining innovation. http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/02/pdf/disrupting_college_execsumm.pdf

The future is..

1. What do great programs look and feel like? 2. Whats the competitive marketplace thats impacting this environment? 3. Higher education practice, technology and policies that need to change? 4. What matters in online education to students, faculty, universities? 5. What might higher education marketplace look like a decade from now?

QUESTIONS Dr. Linda L. Baer [email protected]

Documents

Dr. Linda L. Baer Great Plains IDEA Spring Meeting April 8, 2014