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Dr L James Valverde, Jr
Vice President, Economics & Risk Management
Insurance Information Institute
110 William Street
New York, NY 10038
Tel: (212) 346-5520
Fax: (212) 732-1916
[email protected] www.iii.org
Property/Casualty Insurance Update
Insurance Information InstituteBoard of Directors Meeting
New York City
January 9, 2007
2006 — A Profitability Peak for the Industry?
Presentation Outline
• P/C Insurance Financial Overview
• Profitability
• Wall Street Perspective
• Underwriting Performance
• Investment Performance
• Catastrophe Review & Outlook
INSURANCE INFORMATION INSTITUTE
2006 P/C FINANCIAL OVERVIEW
Profitability: Peak Performance
P/C Net Income After Taxes: 1991-2006E ($ Millions)*
$14,178
$5,840
$19,316
$10,870
$20,598$24,404
$36,819
$30,773
$21,865
-$6,970
$3,046
$30,029
$59,813
$43,013
$20,559
$38,501
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
06F
*ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. 2005 ROAS = 9.8% after adj. for one-time special dividend paid by the investment subsidiary of one company. 2Based on 9-month results; Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Inst.
2001 ROE = -1.2%2002 ROE = 2.2%2003 ROE = 8.9%2004 ROE = 9.4%2005 ROE= 10.5%2006 ROAS1,2 = 13.4%
Though up in 2006, insurer profits are highly volatile (2001 was the industry’s worst year ever). ROEs
generally fall below that of most other industries.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06E
ROE Cost of Capital
ROE vs. Equity Cost of Capital: US P/C Insurance:1991-2006E
*Based on 2006:9M ROAS of 13.4%Source: The Geneva Association, Ins. Information Inst.
The p/c insurance industry achieved its cost of capital in 2005/6 for the first time in many years**
-13.
2 p
ts
+0.
2 p
ts
US P/C insurers missed their cost of capital by an average 6.7 points from 1991 to 2002, on target or better since 2004
+1.
0 p
ts
+3.
9 p
ts
-9.0
pts
The cost of capital is the rate of return
insurers need to attract and retain
capital to the business
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
06E
07F
08F
US P/C Insurers All US Industries
ROE: P/C vs. All Industries 1987–2008E
*2006-8 P/C insurer ROEs are I.I.I. estimates.Source: Insurance Information Institute; Fortune
Andrew Northridge
Hugo Lowest CAT losses in 15 years
Sept. 11
4 Hurricanes
Katrina, Rita, Wilma
P/C insurers have underperformed the Fortune 500 group every year since
1987…and may do so in 2006/7
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006F
2007F
Note: Shaded areas denote hard market periods.Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute
Strength of Recent Hard Markets by NWP Growth*
1975-78 1984-87 2001-04
*2006-10 figures are III forecasts/estimates. 2005 growth of 0.4% equates to 1.8% after adjustment for a special one-time transaction between one company and its foreign parent. 2006 figure of 2.8% is based on III Early Bird Survey, Dec. 2006.
2006-2010 (post-Katrina) period could resemble 1993-97 (post-
Andrew)
2005/6/7: slowest growth since late 1990s
Growth in Net Written Premiums
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
7576777879808182838485868788899091929394959697989900010203040506
U.S. Policyholder Surplus: 1975-2006E*
Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute *III Estimate.
$ B
illi
ons
“Surplus” is a measure of underwriting capacity. It is analogous to “Owners Equity” or “Net Worth” in non-insurance organizations
Capacity as of 12/31/06 is $481.5B (est.), 13.1% above year-end 2005,
69% above its 2002 trough and 44% above its 1999 peak.
Foreign reinsurance and residual market
mechanisms absorbed 45% of 2005 CAT
losses of $62.1B
INSURANCE INFORMATION INSTITUTE
WALL STREET PERSPECTIVEMaintaining Investor Confidence is Critical
P/C Insurance Stocks: Strong Finish in 2006
0.61%
9.53%
10.33%
16.57%
19.95%
16.24%
13.62%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
S&P 500
Life/Health
Reinsurers
P/C
All Insurers
Multiine
Brokers
Source: SNL Securities, Standard & Poor’s, Insurance Information Institute
Total YTD Returns Through December 31, 2006
P/C insurer & reinsurer stocks rallied in late 2006
as hurricane fears dissipated and insurers turned strong results
INSURANCE INFORMATION INSTITUTE
UNDERWRITING PERFORMANCEBest Performance in a Generation (or Two)
115.8
107.4
100.198.3
100.7
91.5
97.6
94.3
90
100
110
120
01 02 03 04 05 06 9-Mos.Actual
06 IIIForecast*
07 IIIForecast
P/C Industry Combined Ratio
Sources: A.M. Best; ISO, III. *III forecast for 2006 full year.
2005 figure benefited from heavy use of reinsurance which lowered net losses
2006 could produce the best underwriting
result since the 94.9 combined ratio in 1955, Actual 9-mos. Result of 91.5 is best since 1948.
As recently as 2001, insurers were paying out nearly $1.16 for
every dollar they earned in premiums
2007 deterioration due primarily to falling rates, but results still strong assuming
normal CAT activity
87.6
91.291.5
92.1 92.3 92.493.1 93.1 93.3
93.0
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
1949 1948 2007* 1943 1937 1935 1950 1939 1953 1936
Ten Lowest P/C Insurance Combined Ratios Since 1920
Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. *ISO figure through September 30, 2006
The combined ratio through 2006Q3 is the third lowest on record
since 1920
INSURANCE INFORMATION INSTITUTE
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCEFlat Rates, Rising Stocks
Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain*
$ Billions
$35.4
$42.8$47.2
$52.3
$44.4
$36.0
$45.3$48.9
$59.2
$51.9$56.9
$51.9
$57.9
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05** 06E*Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses. 2006 estimate based on actual annualized 2006:9mos result of $38.936B. **2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B. Source: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
Investment gains are up but are only now comparable to gains seen in the late 1990s
INSURANCE INFORMATION INSTITUTE
CATASTROPHE REVIEWA Welcome Respite for the Industry
U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses*
$7.5
$2.7
$4.7
$22.
9
$5.5 $1
6.9
$8.3
$7.4
$2.6 $1
0.1
$8.3
$4.6
$26.
5
$5.9 $1
2.9 $2
7.5
$100
.0
$61.
8
$7.6
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
06**
20??
*Excludes $4B-$6b offshore energy losses from Hurricanes Katrina & Rita. **Through 9/30/06.Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01. Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B.Source: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute
$ Billions
2005 was by far the worst year ever for insured
catastrophe losses in the US, but the worst has yet to come.
$100 Billion CAT year is coming soon
INSURANCE INFORMATION INSTITUTE
2007 HURRICANE SEASONLet the Forecasts Begin…
Above Average Activity Expected
Outlook for 2007 Hurricane Season: 40% Worse Than Average
Average* 2005 2007F
Named Storms 9.6 28 14
Named Storm Days 49.1 115.5 70
Hurricanes 5.9 14 7
Hurricane Days 24.5 47.5 35
Intense Hurricanes 2.3 7 3
Intense Hurricane Days 5 7 8
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 100% 275% 140%
*Average over the period 1950-2000.Source: Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University, December 8, 2006.
Presentation Summary
• Strong Profits• Record Profits in Dollar Terms in 2006
• Best ROE since 1988
• Significant Momentum into 2007
• Policyholder Surplus Will Likely Reach
$500B by 07Q2
• Top Line Growth Stagnating
• Underwriting Remains Strong, but Some
Deterioration Expected
Steven N. Weisbart, Ph.D., CLU
Economist
Insurance Information Institute www.iii.org
110 William Street, New York, NY 10038
Office Tel: (212) 346-5540 Cell phone: (917) 494-5945 email: [email protected]
A Brief Overview/Outlook for theLife, Health, and Longevity
Insurance Industry
January 9, 2007
L/H Industry Net Income, 1995-2007F
$13.6
$19.2$21.7
$18.0$20.9 $22.2
$9.8
$4.1
$26.6
$32.2
$36.0
$40.5
$45.0
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007*
Bill
ions
Source: NAIC, from Highline National Underwriter *I.I.I. forecast
L/H industry net income has risen in most years since 1995. The 1995-2005 compound average annual growth rate was 10.2%.
11% growth forecast
Elements of Net Income, L/H Industry, 2005
$36.0
-$120.3
$151.4
$4.9
-$160
-$80
$0
$80
$160
Bill
ion
s
L/H Net Income
Net Loss from Ins Opns
Net Gain from Inv Opns
Net Gain from Misc Opns
Source: NAIC, from Highline National Underwriter; I.I.I. calculations
Investment Income is a key element of annuity and whole life products, but it’s also key to industry profitability
Percent of Net Gain from Operations, by Business Line, 2005
Misc, 8.8%Other A&H, 7.3%
Group A&H, 16.7%
Group Life, 5.3%
Individual Life, 21.1%
Individual Annuities, 20.4%
Group Annuities, 17.3%
Other life, 3.1%
Source: NAIC data, from Highline National Underwriter.
“Net Gain from Operations” here includes net investment income but not capital gains allocated to each line—the traditional life/ health approach. It is net of dividends to policyowners and federal income taxes.
Direct Premium Trends, 1995-2007F
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
$300.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006F2007F
Life Insurance Annuities A&H
Source: NAIC, from Highline National Underwriter, I.I.I. forecast based on LIMRA data for 2006
1995-2005 Average Annual Growth Rates:
Life Insurance: 3.1%
Annuities (1995 2000): 5.1%
Annuities (2001-2005): 2.2%
A&H: 2.7%
NAIC changed its definition of group annuity premiums
L/H Industry Productivity Trends, 1997-2005
$355
,700
$367
,000
$366
,000
$411
,000
$695
,000
$758
,000
$757
,000
$831
,000
$831
,000
$490
,000
$492
,000
$485
,000
$542
,000
$866
,000
$925
,000
$903
,000
$971
,000
$949
,000
$0
$250,000
$500,000
$750,000
$1,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Home Office Agents & Brokers
Source: NAIC, from Highline National Underwriter, I.I.I. calculations
Productivity is defined as total premium dollars (from all lines) per employee.
Productivity has been increasing fairly steadily for the last decade.
$1,300
$1,050
$960 $954
$695 $670 $690$740 $745 $725 $715
$660 $640 $615
$995
$830
$660$583
$515
$425$480
$420 $395 $375 $375 $375 $355 $341
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07*
Standard Preferred
Historical and Forecast Term Life Insurance Rates
Source: Accuquote; Insurance Information Institute Forecasts for 2007.
On average in 2007, premium rates for term life insurance are expected to
fall 4% from rates in 2006
$500,000 20-year level term issued to 40-year-old male nonsmoker
Individual Life Insurance Sales, 1990-2005
14
.1
13
.5
13
.4
13
.2
12
.8
12
.3
12
.0
11
.6
11
.5
11
.0
10
.6
10
.3
10
.6
10
.5
10
.6
10
.1
0
5
10
15
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005*
Mill
ion
s o
f Po
licie
s
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
Millions of Policies Trillions of Face Amount
Source: LIMRA International and I.I.I. calculations *Preliminary estimates
First year and single premiums for individual life insurance grew at a 4% average annual rate from 1995-2005.
2007 Investment Outlook
• Interest rates for 2007 are forecast to remain about where they are now (4.7% for 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes)
• The “spread” between short- and longer-term rates will remain small or negative
• Corporate profits are forecast to rise modestly (median Blue Chip forecast is 5.0%)
Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Vol 31, No. 12 (December 10, 2006), p. 3; I.I.I. forecast
2007 Outlook for the Life/Health Industry
• If the stock market also rises modestly or is flat vs. inflation, net premiums for variable products might also struggle
• Fixed annuity premiums will post a modest increase, driven partly by• Transfers from variable accounts• New premiums from new 401(k) participation rules
• Life insurance premiums will continue their 3% annual growth
Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Vol 31, No. 12 (December 10, 2006), p. 3; I.I.I. forecast
www.iii.orgIf you would like a copy of this presentation, please give me your business card with e-mail address
Steven N. Weisbart, Ph.D., CLUEconomistInsurance Information Institute110 William StreetNew York, NY 10038Office Tel: (212) 346-5540Cell phone: (917) [email protected] www.iii.org
INSURANCE INFORMATION INSTITUTE ON-LINE
Invested Asset Distribution, US L/H Insurers, 1995 vs. 2005
Stocks3.4%
Othr Inv assets3.3%
Cash2.2%
Bonds61.8%
Policy Loans3.8%
Mortgages25.0%
Real Estate0.5%
Source: NAIC, via National Underwriter Highline data; I.I.I. calculations. Multi-class mortgage-backed securities included in mortgages
Stocks3.8%
Othr inv assets1.5%
Cash2.9%
Bonds56.6%
Policy Loans5.9%
Mortgages27.3%
Real Estate2.2%
1995 2005
Bonds up 5.2 percentage points; shift toward shorter
maturities
Changes in Life Insurance Distribution
• Decline in full-time affiliated agents (LIMRA estimates) • In 1989: about 262,000 • In 2001: about 178,000• In 2004: about 160,000
• More than ¾ of independent agents began their careers as affiliated agents
• In 2004 stockbrokers and banks wrote about 40% of new individual annuity premium but less than 10% of new individual life premium
Source: Marianne Purushotham, “The Impact of Distribution on the Individual Life and Annuity Industry,” The Actuary newsletter, June 2006.
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Q1
-19
99
Q3
-19
99
Q1
-20
00
Q3
-20
00
Q1
-20
01
Q3
-20
01
Q1
-20
02
Q3
-20
02
Q1
-20
03
Q3
-20
03
Q1
-20
04
Q3
-20
04
Q1
-20
05
Q3
-20
05
Q1
-20
06
Q3
-20
06
% C
ha
ng
e v
s P
rior
Yr
Quarterly Change (vs. same quarter in prior year) in Individual U.S. Life Insurance Applications, 1999-2006
Source: MIB Life Index, Annual Reports for 2001, 2002, and 2003, plus monthly releases
9/11 effect
Effect of anticipated rate rise from increased reserve requirement for some
term policies (“XXX” regulation)
Challenges for 2007 and beyond
• Productivity: When will “straight-through processing” and other technology investments pay off?
• Distribution: How will increasing dependence on brokers and independent agents change market conduct management?
• Enterprise Risk Management: How will new reserve and compliance regulations and new perspectives on business risks change insurer behavior?
• Consolidation and Re-alignment: Will the need for scale and profits continue to fuel mergers and sales of business lines that “don’t fit”?