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“Systems, Modelling and Analyses”
Dr. John BeckfordVis. Prof. STEaPP, UCL
Vis. Prof. CIM, Loughborough
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Evolution of Systems Thinking• Systems
– Perspectives and Methodologies
• Modelling– Systems of Interest, Boundaries– Recursive Systems – Vertical and Horizontal Constraints
• Analyses– Infrastructure Interdependencies– Surfing the Waves– Cascade Failure
• Whither the Future– R&D – Infrastructure UK, ICIF, IBuild, TRaCCA, ITRC– New Business Models
Systems, Modelling and Analyses
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Eastern Philosophy – 4500 years– Buddhism– The Tao– Sikhism– Hinduism
• Western Philosophy – 2400 years– Plato, 390 BC – Kybernetes– Bogdanov, 1913– Von Bertallanfy, 1928 – General Systems Theory
Systems
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Eastern Philosophy – 4500 years– Buddhism– The Tao– Sikhism– Hinduism
• Western Philosophy – 2400 years– Plato, 390 BC – Kybernetes– Bogdanov, 1913– Von Bertallanfy, 1928 – General Systems Theory
• ‘Nature did not consist of physics, chemistry and biology,: these were arbitrary divisions, man‐made, merely a convenient way of carving up the task of investigating Nature’s mysteries’
– Peter Checkland, Systems Thinking, Systems Practice, Wiley, 1981
Systems
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Energy Supply
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
Systemic Interaction
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Energy Waste WaterICTTransport
The Elements
Systemic Interaction
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Energy
Transport Water
Waste
Energy Waste WaterICTTransport
The Elements
The Interactions
Systemic Interaction
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Understanding Systemic Thinking• Interaction
– The existence of ‘system’ is rooted in the connectivity of one element with others – this constitutes a network which can be dealt with in its totality – it is a ‘system’
– Key ideas: » Von Bertalanffy, Wiener, Checkland, Beer, Ackoff, Forrester
• Interdependency– The functioning of one element of the infrastructure depends on one (or more) other elements
– Issues cannot be resolved in isolation• Emergent properties
– Systems exhibit properties that belong only to the system – not to any of its elements
» Flight
Systemic Interaction
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Systemic Interaction -flight
Airframe Propulsion
ControlSystem
ManagementSystem
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Systemic Interaction -flight
Airframe Propulsion
ControlSystem
EnergySupplySystem
ManagementSystem
MaintenanceSystem
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Systemic Interaction –safe flights
EnergySupplySystem
ATCSystem
Airframe Propulsion
ControlSystem
ManagementSystem
MaintenanceSystem
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Systemic Interaction –regulated airspace
EnergySupplySystem
ATCSystem
Airframe Propulsion
ControlSystem
ManagementSystem
MaintenanceSystemRegulatory
System
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Why is it a problem?• Current paradigm
– (Relatively) linear, reductionist thinking– Solutions to THIS issue are developed in isolation from THOSE issues– But THOSE issues are interdependent with THIS one
Systemic Interaction
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Why is it a problem?• Sometimes, rather than solve issues they are moved or displaced:
– The NHS displaces patients from one budget holder to another» changes in GP contracts re out of hours surgery has displaced local practice volumes to A&E departments
» the number of people treated is, roughly, the same
• Sometimes, issues in one area impose a cost burden in another –which is beyond our capacity to control
– Healthcare for those involved in road accidents imposes costs on the NHS not the DSA
Systemic Interaction
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Systems Methodologies
Unitary Pluralist CoerciveSimple
Complex
From: Creative Problem Solving, Flood & Jackson, 1991
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Unitary Pluralist CoerciveSimple Operational Research
Systems Analysis
Systems Engineering
Systems DynamicsComplex
From: Creative Problem Solving, Flood & Jackson, 1991
Systems Methodologies
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Unitary Pluralist CoerciveSimple Operational Research
Systems Analysis
Systems Engineering
Systems DynamicsComplex Viable System Diagnosis
General System Theory
Socio‐Technical Systems
Contingency Theory
From: Creative Problem Solving, Flood & Jackson, 1991
Systems Methodologies
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Unitary Pluralist CoerciveSimple Operational Research
Systems Analysis
Systems Engineering
Systems Dynamics
Social System Design
Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing
Complex Viable System Diagnosis
General System Theory
Socio‐Technical Systems
Contingency Theory
From: Creative Problem Solving, Flood & Jackson, 1991
Systems Methodologies
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Unitary Pluralist CoerciveSimple Operational Research
Systems Analysis
Systems Engineering
Systems Dynamics
Social System Design
Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing
Complex Viable System Diagnosis
General System Theory
Socio‐Technical Systems
Contingency Theory
Interactive Planning
Soft Systems Methodology
From: Creative Problem Solving, Flood & Jackson, 1991
Systems Methodologies
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Unitary Pluralist CoerciveSimple Operational Research
Systems Analysis
Systems Engineering
Systems Dynamics
Social System Design
Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing
Critical Systems Heuristics
Complex Viable System Diagnosis
General System Theory
Socio‐Technical Systems
Contingency Theory
Interactive Planning
Soft Systems Methodology
From: Creative Problem Solving, Flood & Jackson, 1991
Systems Methodologies
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• The Good, the Bad and the Disinterested– Ideas around for about 80 years– Offers models which are both ends and means oriented – organisational,
social and political perspectives• VSM, SSM, Systems Dynamics, SAST, CSH
– ‘Systems’ or ‘holistic’ thinking beginning to be adopted– But not core in Academic or Professional Education
• It is easier to work within the established paradigm than change the thinking (Machiavelli)
• There is a dearth of truly systemic thinking in our approaches to problem solving
• This may well exacerbate our challenges as systemic interactions become more complex
– More widely – the language of systems is being used – but without meaning!• “Humpty Dumpty paid his works extra to make them mean what he chose, but he couldn’t change the nature of the things that they described”
Systems Thinking in the UK
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Water
Waste
EnergyTransport
Competitionfor water
Fossil, NuclearHydro
Energy from AD waste
FloodPrevention
Non-waterBased energy
FloodMitigation
Building StdsEnforcement
WaterMeters
IncentiviseEff Devices
Telemetry SystemsFlood MgmtEvac. Co-ordinationBuilding & Ops SystemsDemand/Consumption DataLeakage MgmtSpill MonitoringAppliance Efficiency
HouseholdSuperMeters
EnviroInfo System
PublicInformation
Power for pumpsplant, telemetrysystems control
Fuel & PowerRaw Materials
Waterways (Canals,Rivers, Shipping)
Navigation/RoutingInfrastructure
Use of rivers & seas
Oil, GasElectricity
Refineries, Refuelling IF,Distribution Systems, Depots
Power Stations, Charging PointsDistribution Systems
Grid IF
Control SystemsRail SignallingATC (NATS)Road Traffic ControlRadarGPSCamera/Enf. NetworksMobile & Fixed Line NetworksShip & Air RadioEmergency Service BandsScheduling/Timetabling Systems
Raw Material Imports
FloodingHydro/Tidal
Cooling (Inland)
Reservoirs &Aquifers
Energy to/fromwaste
Competitionfor space
Systems Thinking in the UK
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Systems Thinking in the UK
67 Interactions
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• “A model is neither true nor false, it is more or less useful”– Stafford Beer, Diagnosing the System, Wiley, 1985
Systems Modelling
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• “A model is neither true nor false, it is more or less useful”– Stafford Beer, Diagnosing the System, Wiley, 1985
• Considerations– What is the ‘purpose’ of the model?– What are the boundaries to the system under consideration?– What constraints apply to the model?– What are the different ‘dimensions’ that might apply?– What approach or technique is most useful?
• Unitary – Pluralistic – Coercive• Simple – Complex
Systems Modelling
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Continuously DissolvingThe Problem
Idealised VSM
Client Model of Problem
Client
Emergent Model of Problem
Lead Consultant
Shared Model of Problem Agreed
Yes
No
Prepare a Proposal
Check Understanding
Outline Solution
Check Solution
What has been misunderstood?
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Continuously DissolvingThe Problem
Phase One
Project based on Shared Model
of Problem
Client Model of Problem
Client with
Problem
Lead Consultant
FROM PHASE ONE Revalidate Proposal
and Required Outcomes
Commence Project
Detailed Model
Outline Solution
Confirm Scope & Cost
Confirmation
Phase Two
Prototype
Assessment
Cost/Benefit
Confirmation
Phase Three
Implement
Revise/Edit
Finalise
Confirmation
Phase Four
Validate
Assess Satisfaction
Advise Further Needs
Confirmation
Client without Problem
Spatial PlanningData Infrastructure
DampingPeaks
Prediction
DisasterPrevention
Alignment of Contract Cycles
FiscalEfficiency
EconomicEfficiency
Investment inRenewables
Transport
Energy
ICT
Water
Waste
JobCreation
CriticalSkills
Better Useof Data
Inter-disciplinary(Systems)
SkillsRapid
Capacity Growth
LowerCosts
Use ofSubsidy
EnhanceNetworks
Availability Of capital
Demands for:Resilience and Sustainability
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• We do not ‘analyse’ systems we ‘synthesise’ them
• Our need is to understand interaction and interdependency
Analyses
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Energy Supply
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Synthesis
ICT
Energy
Transport Water
Waste
Energy Waste WaterICTTransportNetwork
Systemic
Asset PumpingStations Reservoirs
Recycling Centre
AnaerobicDigestion Plant
Exchanges Masts
Generation Sub-Stations
Exchanges Masts
PumpsPipesCables SwitchesValvesRegulators ControlSystemsTurbinesArtefact
Parts
Sub-Assemblies
Parts
Sub-Assemblies
ComponentParts
Sub-Assemblies
Parts
Sub-Assemblies
Parts
Sub-Assemblies
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Synthesis
Policy & Standards
Infrastructure
Demand
Licensing, Ownership, Governance, Direction, Constraints
Supply & Delivery Systems, Owners, Business Systems
Industrial, Commercial and Domestic Users
EnvironmentalChange
UK GovernmentWAG
EU Gov
Economy
Safety
ScottishParliament
DfT DECC
EfficiencyCost
Corporatelobbying Global
business
CompetitionPolicy
Delivery/ownership
Power/energy/Telecomms co.s
DefraORR
BERR
HA
LAs
RDAs
TransportScotland
Airportoperators
TOCs
NetworkRail
HS 1/HS 2
ROSCOsCyclingEngland
RDAs Port owners
NI Assembly
PTEs
TfL
Timetabling/scheduling
Spatial usage patterns
Legacyinfrastructure
Land usepatterns
Airspaceusage
Security
Skills Energysources
Technology
Transportsubstitution
Human behaviour
Navigation
CommunitiesShippingchannels
AccessibilityInternational
bodiesIMO ICAO
ISO
Policy targets/framing Demographics
Logisticspolicy
Consumers
DCLGIPC/
Planning Inspectorate
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Synthesis
Policy & Standards
Demand
Licensing, Ownership, Governance, Direction, Constraints
Industrial, Commercial and Domestic Users
Cycling
Cycleways
Supporting Infrastructure
Light Rail
Track / Road
Vehicles
Intersections
Support systems
Energy Infrastructure
Terminals
Heavy Rail
Track
Vehicles
Intersections
Support systems
Energy Infrastructure
Terminals
Underground
Vehicles
Track/ Tunnels/
Intersections
Support systems
Energy Infrastructure
Terminals Road Transport
Road
Vehicles
Intersections
Support systems
Energy Infrastructure
Terminals
Aviation
Airspace
Vehicles
Airport
Support systems
Energy Infrastructure
PeripheralInfrastructure
Shipping
Vehicles
Shipping lanes /
channels
Support systems
Energy Infrastructure
Port PeripheralInfrastructure
Walking
Walkways
Pipelines
Goods/wastePipelines
Terminals
Off road Infrastructure
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Synthesis
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Synthesis ‐ Society
• Inadequate traditional economic modelling for growth– Considered individual elements of infrastructure– Picked up co‐location, sharing– Did not appear to model interdependency from either a performance, resilience or
economic perspective– Considered economic benefits of ‘THIS’ but not the consequences for ‘THESE’
• So, how to address?• Need a model that accepts and values interdependency• Also need to understand that:
– time is an important element– economic benefits do not respect either the budgetary or electoral cycles
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• “The UK Infrastructure is a network of networks” CST 2009
• Each element‐EnergyTransportICTWaterWaste‐ depends to some degree
on the others• Might models that deal with
interdependency provide the feedstock for economic modelling?
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Synthesis ‐ Society
• When the current capability and potential is fully exploited what happens?– or failing or in need of replacement
• The economic case is hard to make for the replacement or upgrade• Locally it costs too much and in itself does not provide sufficient additional
value• Perhaps, the economic benefit is embedded in its enabling role?• Perhaps, the benefit can be measured:
– elsewhere in the network of networks of the primary infrastructure– in the secondary infrastructure– in societal rather than economic benefit
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• When the current capability and potential is fully exploited what happens?– or failing or in need of replacement
• The economic case is hard to make for the replacement or upgrade• Locally it costs too much and in itself does not provide sufficient additional
value• Perhaps, the economic benefit is embedded in its enabling role?• Perhaps, the benefit can be measured:
– elsewhere in the network of networks of the primary infrastructure– in the secondary infrastructure– in societal rather than economic benefit
• We need to understand investment and growth in a systemic sense
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Infrastructure investment works in waves over time:– Wave 1: Design and build– Wave 2: Maintain– Wave 3: Exploit
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?
• Wave 2 also belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the element itself (5‐100 years?)– Supports/enables long term economic growth locally and elsewhere– Maintenance spend is relatively local – delivers some level of local benefit
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?
• Wave 2 also belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the element itself (5‐100 years?)– Supports/enables long term economic growth locally and elsewhere– Maintenance spend is relatively local – delivers some level of local benefit
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?
• Wave 2 also belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the element itself (5‐100 years?)– Supports/enables long term economic growth locally and elsewhere– Maintenance spend is relatively local – delivers some level of local benefit
• Wave 3 belongs to infrastructure users– Lasts the life of the primary element– May have multiple cycles– Will have multiple exploiters– Benefit is perhaps measured in:
• the exploiting infrastructure NOT the primary infrastructure• the social infrastructure – education, commerce, civil administration, healthcare, defence
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?
• Wave 2 also belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the element itself (5‐100 years?)– Supports/enables long term economic growth locally and elsewhere– Maintenance spend is relatively local – delivers some level of local benefit
• Wave 3 belongs to infrastructure users– Lasts the life of the primary element– May have multiple cycles– Will have multiple exploiters– Benefit is perhaps measured in:
• the exploiting infrastructure NOT the primary infrastructure• the social infrastructure – education, commerce, civil administration, healthcare, defence
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Wave 1 Build
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Wave 1
Wave 2 Maintain
Build
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Wave 1
Wave 2
Wave 3
Maintain
Build
Exploit
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Suggestion is that we need to develop and adopt systemic economic models to synthesise and understand how to realise the potential of:– Economic and social benefit from:
• Individual entities• Co‐located and co‐dependent entities• Interdependent networks• Networks of Networks
– Develop and test systemic hypotheses in economic terms– Address the challenges of:
• integrated investment by fragmented owners• long‐term, inter‐generational infrastructure investment• short term electoral and budget cycle thinking
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Synthesis ‐ Society
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Given that the UK Infrastructure is a ‘network of networks’, is it feasible to:
Interdependent Network Failure Modelling
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Given that the UK Infrastructure is a ‘network of networks’, is it feasible to:
– model the interdependencies
Interdependent Network Failure Modelling
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Given that the UK Infrastructure is a ‘network of networks’, is it feasible to:
– model the interdependencies– represent the results graphically
Interdependent Network Failure Modelling
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Given that the UK Infrastructure is a ‘network of networks’, is it feasible to:
– model the interdependencies– model how failure propagates across
• individual networks (e.g. gas, electricity)• multiple networks (e.g. gas AND electricity)
– represent the results graphically
Interdependent Network Failure Modelling
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Given that the UK Infrastructure is a ‘network of networks’, is it feasible to:
– model the interdependencies– model how failure propagates across
• individual networks (e.g. gas, electricity)• multiple networks (e.g. gas AND electricity)
– represent the results graphically– Identify affected populations
Interdependent Network Failure Modelling
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Given that the UK Infrastructure is a ‘network of networks’, is it feasible to:
– model the interdependencies– model how failure propagates across
• individual networks (e.g. gas, electricity)• multiple networks (e.g. gas AND electricity)
– represent the results graphically– Identify affected populations– develop a vulnerability and/or criticality index for:
• the individual assets• the networks
Interdependent Network Failure Modelling
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Supply
SupplyVulnerability
Asset Vulnerability
EnvironmentalVulnerabilityEnvironmental
ThisAsset Onward Supply
Onward Delivery
Influence: Outfluence:THIS Asset depends on THAT THAT Asset depends on THIS
Process ProcessVulnerability
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Supply
SupplyVulnerability
Asset Vulnerability
EnvironmentalVulnerabilityEnvironmental
ThisAsset Onward Supply
Onward Delivery
Asset Criticality
Outfluence:THAT Asset depends on THIS
Process ProcessVulnerability
Asset Criticality = Σ (Onward Asset Dependence X Onward Asset Criticality)
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Influence:THIS Asset depends on THAT
SupplyVulnerability
Asset Vulnerability
EnvironmentalVulnerabilityEnvironmental
ThisAsset Onward Supply
Onward Delivery
Asset Criticality
Outfluence:THAT Asset depends on THIS
Process ProcessVulnerability
SupplyDependency
XSupply Asset Vulnerability
Asset Criticality = Σ (Onward Asset Dependence X Onward Asset Criticality)
Supply Criticality = Asset Criticality X Supply Vulnerability
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Influence:THIS Asset depends on THAT
SupplyVulnerability
Asset Vulnerability
EnvironmentalVulnerabilityEnvironmental
ThisAsset Onward Supply
Onward Delivery
Asset Criticality
Outfluence:THAT Asset depends on THIS
ProcessVulnerability
Supply
Maintenance, etc.Routines
Asset Criticality = Σ (Onward Asset Dependence X Onward Asset Criticality)
Supply Criticality = Asset Criticality X Supply VulnerabilityProcess Criticality = Asset Criticality X Process Vulnerability
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Influence:THIS Asset depends on THAT
SupplyVulnerability
Asset Vulnerability
EnvironmentalVulnerability
ThisAsset Onward Supply
Onward Delivery
Asset Criticality
Outfluence:THAT Asset depends on THIS
ProcessVulnerability
Supply
Environmental Risk
Asset Resistance
Process
Asset Criticality = Σ (Onward Asset Dependence X Onward Asset Criticality)
Supply Criticality = Asset Criticality X Supply VulnerabilityProcess Criticality = Asset Criticality X Process Vulnerability
Environmental Criticality = Asset Criticality X Environmental VulnerabilityCopyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Influence:THIS Asset depends on THAT
SupplyVulnerability
Asset Vulnerability
EnvironmentalVulnerability
ThisAsset Onward Supply
Onward Delivery
Asset Criticality
Outfluence:THAT Asset depends on THIS
ProcessVulnerability
Supply
Process
Environmental
Asset Criticality = Σ (Onward Asset Dependence X Onward Asset Criticality)
Supply Criticality = Asset Criticality X Supply VulnerabilityProcess Criticality = Asset Criticality X Process Vulnerability
Environmental Criticality = Asset Criticality X Environmental VulnerabilityAsset Vulnerability = Max of Supply/Maintenance/Environmental Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Influence:THIS Asset depends on THAT
SupplyVulnerability
Asset Vulnerability
EnvironmentalVulnerability
ThisAsset Onward Supply
Onward Delivery
Asset Criticality
Outfluence:THAT Asset depends on THIS
ProcessVulnerability
Supply
Process
Environmental
Asset Criticality = Σ (Onward Asset Dependence X Onward Asset Criticality)
Supply Criticality = Asset Criticality X Supply VulnerabilityProcess Criticality = Asset Criticality X Process Vulnerability
Environmental Criticality = Asset Criticality X Environmental VulnerabilityAsset Vulnerability = Max of Supply/Maintenance/Environmental
Asset Exposure
=Asset Criticality
XAsset
Vulnerability
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Influence:THIS Asset depends on THAT
• Given that the UK Infrastructure is a ‘network of networks’, is it feasible to:
– model the interdependencies– model how failure propagates across
• individual networks (e.g. gas, electricity)• multiple networks (e.g. gas AND electricity)
– represent the results graphically– Identify affected populations– develop a vulnerability and/or criticality index for:
• the individual assets• the networks
And, therefore:– identify locations where either
• mitigating action will deliver most (population) benefit• investment will best increase resilience
Interdependent Network Failure Modelling
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Identify apparent dependencies and connectivity from available data
• Make assumptions about the level of connectivity (if necessary)
• Build the network relationship models• Test that the results make sense• Model the effects of failure• Develop a criticality/vulnerability index based on the now
known connectivity• Deploy results on a GIS tool
Interdependent Network Failure Modelling
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Adopting a new paradigm• Einstein on madness?
Whither the Future
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Adopting a new paradigm• Einstein on madness?
– “Doing the same thing and expecting a different result”
Whither the Future
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Adopting a new paradigm• Einstein on madness?
– “Doing the same thing and expecting a different result”• If we want to change the way things work (and it rather looks
like we need to) then we need to adopt different methods
Whither the Future
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Exploiting capacity– Kondratieff Wave
• Last 50 years we have been benefitting from historic investment• As we get nearer capacity we have to find different ways of managing
– The old ways are no longer relevant or, perhaps, functional– There may be limits to sustainable growth– Increasing risk of systemic chaos in disruption with wider impacts
• Ageing Infrastructure– Congestion, Beyond Design Capacity, Questionable Resilience– Potential for Systemic or Cascade Failure
• Rooted in increasing and often unrecognised interdependence– Especially on ICT
Whither the Future
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Do the (systemically) right thing right not the wrong thing better!
Whither the Future
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Do the (systemically) right thing right not the wrong thing better!– Understand the infrastructure system– Integrate management– ‘Dissolve the problem’
• Address the systemic problem – not the symptom– interconnectedness means that solving one problem may well solve another!
• Why do people commute?» Because we manage where people are rather than what they do» Don’t move people, move information and energy
• Australia ‐ Transport corridors • Hong Kong – MTR – co‐location of Transport, Offices, Homes
– Exploit the transformational potential of ICT
Whither the Future
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Future Environment:Market, SocietyTechnology, CustomersUKCP’nn’, IPCC
OfGen
Transport
Waste
GovernmentPolicy
OfWat
OfCom
Planning &Modelling
InterdependencyResilience
‘Golden Share’
PerformanceRegulators:Economic?Resilience?Low Carbon?
Infrastructure UK
Operators
Operators
Operators
Operators
Operators
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Whither the Future
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Future Environment:Market, SocietyTechnology, CustomersUKCP’nn’, IPCC
OfGen
Transport
Waste
GovernmentPolicy
OfWat
OfCom
Planning &Modelling
InterdependencyResilience
‘Golden Share’
PerformanceRegulators:Economic?Resilience?Low Carbon?
Infrastructure UK
Operators
Operators
Operators
Operators
Operators
just in case
just in time
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Whither the Future
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Actual
Capability
Potential
Productivity
Latency
Effectiveness
Drivingoperationalimprovement
Drivingstrategicimprovement
Actual
Capability
Potential
Productivity
Latency
Effectiveness
Drivingoperationalimprovement
Drivingstrategicimprovement
Actual
Capability
Potential
Productivity
Latency
Effectiveness
Drivingoperationalimprovement
Drivingstrategicimprovement
Economic
Resilience
Carbon Impact
Actual
Capability
Potential
Productivity
Latency
Effectiveness
Overall Performance
Limited by the worst performing element
Whither the Future
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
• Systemic Model of the whole infrastructure• Infrastructure Supply Chain Review• Resilience Assessment for every infrastructure project• Resilience Share Investment
– Private Capital – just in time– Public Capital – just in case
• Skills Investment– Systems Thinking– Information Utilisation
• Invest in Critical ICT and Communications Systems
Whither the Future
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
Whither the Future
• Since 2009– The CST Report
• “A network of networks”
– “Infrastructure UK”• taking a ‘systemic’ approach
– ICIF, Ibuild, ITRC– TRaCCA– Consideration of new business models
• NIP14– £3bn of efficiency savings identified from systemic interventions THIS
year!– interdependencies at the heart– needs to be systemic
• £200bn of Infrastructure Investment by 2020Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014
“Systems, Modelling and Analyses”
Dr. John BeckfordVis. Prof. STEaPP, UCL
Vis. Prof. CIM, Loughborough
Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014