Dr. John Barry

School of Politics, International Studies and Philosophy

Queens University Belfast

&

Dr. Bethany Bradley

Partnership Development and Policy Officer

Northern Ireland Strategic Migration Partnership

Representing a Regional Perspective: The role of NISMP...

with some political and research observations

Complexity of migration and population flows and dynamics

Issues of law, economics, law, lobbying and policy-making, high and low politics, and public opinion

From ethical to evidence-based issues

NISRA Migration Statistics

July 2000- June 2012

Estimated Net International Inflow - 148,981Estimated Net International Outflow- 118,051Estimated Net International Migration - 30,930

http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp18.htm

A world of flows….

Political and economic issues

Phase I: 1970s and 1980s, Northern Ireland experienced a consistently large net population loss due to out-migration. This period coincided with the ‘Troubles’.

Phase II: early 1990s until 2004, population movement was approaching balance, with similar numbers of people coming to Northern Ireland as leaving.

Phase III: from 2004 onwards, there has been an annual net inflow of people. Immigration peaked in 2007, when an estimated 32,000 migrants arrived in Northern Ireland.

Since the economic recession began in 2008, there has been a downward trend in migration, which is expected to continue.

Waves of migration history in NI

NI Assembly Research and Information Service, 2012 paper ‘Migration in NI: An Update’

Almost 10 per cent of babies born in Northern Ireland during 2010 had foreign-born mothers, compared with 3 per cent in 2001.

2010 School Census shows that just under 7,500 school children (primary and post-primary) have a language other than English as their first language, around 2.5 per cent of the total school population.

While the scale of migration since 2004 has contributed to some pressure on public services, this must be set against the positive economic, political and cultural benefits of migration.

Migration as a positive contribution to helping NI become more outward looking, multi-cultural and pluralist

A paper by the NI Assembly ad Research division (NIAR 246-11) reviewed a study by Oxford Economics (2009) which estimated that migration had resulted in an additional 40,000 jobs and £1.2 bn Goss Value Added to the regional economy.

The NI HNS in particular has benefitted from the skills and experience of highly-skilled doctors and nurses from India and the Philippines.

The migration context in NI

Why we need a policy focus on migration – recession, anti-immigrate sentiment and populist politics

Partnership between various statutory, voluntary agencies and groups coordinated by NILGARepresentation on the National Migration Forum hosted by the Home OfficeRepresentation on the Asylum Stakeholder GroupResponses to consultations informed by all of the partners with a ‘bigger picture’ and strategic view of the issuesProvides evidence to the Migration Advisory Committee, including setting up consultation events to increase participation in the region Lobbying to increase the level of evidence collected by Migration Advisory Committee in Northern Ireland beyond simple stakeholder information requests

What NISMP does to feed into national policy

Preparing evidence for committee stage of relevant legislation;

Liaising regularly with the Home Office through the Partnership Board and Steering group to present Northern Ireland specific issues raised by stakeholders;

Participation in UK and European research projects to link researchers in with local data sources and encourage the inclusion of Northern Ireland in wider research projects;

Contd…

The establishment of the Migration Information Portal, work with NISRA on analysis and dissemination of relevant census data, and general work to improve the evidence base on migration in Northern Ireland

Response to the consultation for the current immigration bill, and provided evidence-based briefs on the policy changes to relevant agencies to encourage individual responses to the consultation;

Due to the significant concern raised by stakeholders over changes to healthcare access proposed in the bill, NISMP produced a paper for the Home Affairs Committee outlining the potential impact on Northern Ireland and making a series of recommendations for how the bill might be adapted to better reflect regional need;

This will be followed by an ‘implementation options’ paper for service providers in Northern Ireland once the bill reaches its final stages. A series of recommendations to local service providers on how to minimise negative impacts of changes in the bill, and will include proposals for training and support programmes for which we will continue to lobby the Home Office to help resource

Current NISMP projects which will support this area of work - Immigration Bill

To address a perceived lack of transparency in consulting with devolved regions on immigration policy, NISMP is working on the creation of a model for consultation of the Northern Ireland Executive as a part of its future migration strategy.

The future strategy also includes: proposals for mainstreaming migration issues across departments

in the NI Assembly; improving the evidence base on population change and its impact

on the region; lobbying Westminster on relevant policy areas

The development of a ‘community mapping project’, breaking down migration figures in sub-council areas to allow more detailed data analysis and local focus

Contd.

Need for better statistical data, more sophisticated statistical analysis (including more targeted labour market projections). This a basic precondition for evidence-based ,tailored migration policy

Community Mapping Project

More effective coordination between Government departments is needed. A study of other EU regions with a view to the identification of best practice models and their modification would be helpful

Continuation of pro-immigrant measures should be put in place especially in the fields of information, linguistic support and legal advice.Attention to effective integration policies – joined up thinking between state, private-sector, NGO and community initiatives.

Mainstreaming of integration and anti-racist action programmes urgent. Cannot rely on legal instruments alone to achieve this. A more pro-active approach is called for. Particular attention should be paid to the role of the educational curriculum.

Foreign language skills will become increasingly important over the next decade for occupations within health, social care, tourism and law and justice

Future issues: Climate change refugees and migration flows

Up to 200 million displaced people from CC by 2050 under IPCC projections

Evidence of observed impacts of climate changes from socioeconomic systems, is much less known than from biophysical systems, and methodologically it is much more difficult given the complexities of these livelihood systems

Lots of uncertainties on:

o Figures of migrants affectedo From where to where?o How much will be the costs?o What are the existing local

strategies of climate change adaptation and mitigation

o Legal/moral status of climate change refugees and displaced persons

1st October 2013