Dr. Jeff Seaman

Grade Level: Tracking Online Education in the United States

Babson Survey Research Group

jseaman@seagullhaven.com @weirdlyperfect

#pearsoncite @weirdlyperfect

Babson Survey Research Group The Babson Survey Research Group conducts regional, national, and international research projects, including survey design, sampling methodology, data integrity, statistical analyses and reporting.

• Faculty Use of Social Media (Pearson) • National and Regional Surveys of Online Education (Pearson) • Open Education Resources (Pearson) • Sloan K-12 Online Learning Survey Reports • The A۰P۰L۰U-Sloan National Commission on Online Learning • GlobalOHER - International Survey of Online Education

Online Education Survey 2014 • Target respondent: Chief Academic Officer • Opinion data collected: December 2014 – January 2015 • 2,800+ responses • Represents 78%+ of higher education enrollments

11,511

71,801

113,946

78,039

CUMMULATIVE DOWNLOADS 2014: Grade Level

2013: Grade Change

2012: Changing Course

2011: Going the Distance

Report Reach

N=275,297

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2014: Grade Level

2013 Grade Change

12,540

8,702

INFOGRAPHICS

Definitions • Traditional: No online technology used — content is

delivered in writing or orally. • Web Facilitated: Uses web-based technology to

facilitate what is essentially a face-to-face course. • Blended/Hybrid: Blends online and face-to-face

delivery. Substantial proportion of the content is delivered online, has a reduced number of face-to-face meetings.

• Online: Most or all of the content is delivered online, no face-to-face meetings.

Online is Still “Critical”

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014

ONLINE EDUCATION IS CRITICAL TO THE LONG-TERM STRATEGY OF MY INSTITUTION – 2002 TO 2014

Agree

Neutral

Disagree

Change Comes From the For-profits

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014

ONLINE EDUCATION IS CRITICAL TO THE LONG-TERM STRATEGY BY INSTITUTIONAL CONTROL – 2006 TO 2014

Public

Private nonprofit

Private for-profit

IPEDS Data Collection • US Department of Education • It’s about time! • “Distance Education” – although most is online. • Several differences in definitions from the

BSRG. • Second year of data just released

Only the Very Smallest Without Offerings

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Under 1,000 1,000 - 4,999 5,000 - 9,999 10,000 - 19,999 20,000 +

INSTITUTION HAS DISTANCE STUDENTS BY OVERALL ENROLLMENT - 2013

What Kind of Offerings?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Under 1,000 1,000 - 4,999 5,000 - 9,999 10,000 - 19,999 20,000 +

INSTITUTION HAS DISTANCE STUDENTS BY OVERALL ENROLLMENT IPEDS AND BSRG - 2013

BSRG

Who Has Distance/Online? • Major issue is definitional. • BSRG: Any online, of any length, at any time, to any

audience. • IPEDS: Undergrad - “student enrolled in a 4- or 5-year

bachelor's degree program, an associate's degree program, or a vocational or technical program below the baccalaureate.”

• Extremely close for larger (1,500+ students) institutions. • BSRG includes far more smaller institutions (informal

online, non-credit, non-degree, etc.).

Are We Still Growing?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013

GROWTH RATE OF NUMBER OF STUDENTS TAKING AT LEAST ONE ONLINE/DISTANCE COURSE

Where is the Growth?

-75,000

-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

Public Private not-for-profit Private for-profit

DISTANCE EDUCATION ENROLLMENT CHANGE 2012 TO 2013

What About Quality?

Inferior

Somewhat inferior

Same

Somewhat superior

Superior

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2004 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

LEARNING OUTCOMES IN ONLINE EDUCATION COMPARED TO FACE-TO-FACE

Problem: Faculty Acceptance

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fall 2002 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2009 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2014

FACULTY AT MY SCHOOL ACCEPT THE VALUE AND LEGITIMACY OF ONLINE EDUCATION

Problem: Retention

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2012 2014

IMPORTANCE OF LOWER RETENTION RATES IN ONLINE COURSES AS A BARRIER TO ADOPTION OF ONLINE EDUCATION

Very Important

Important

Problem: Students Need More Discipline

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2012 2014

IMPORTANCE OF STUDENTS NEEDING MORE DISCIPLINE TO SUCCEED IN AN ONLINE COURSE AS A BARRIER TO ADOPTION OF ONLINE EDUCATION

Very Important

Important

Problem: Faculty Effort

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2012 2014

IMPORTANCE OF ADDITIONAL FACULTY EFFORT REQUIRED TO DELIVER ONLINE COURSES AS A BARRIER TO ADOPTION OF ONLINE EDUCATION

Very Important

Important

Where are the MOOCs?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014

STATUS OF MOOC OFFERINGS: 2012, 2013, AND 2014

Planning a MOOC

Have a MOOC

Are MOOCs Sustainable?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014

MOOCS ARE A SUSTAINABLE METHOD FOR OFFERING COURSES: 2012, 2013 AND 2014

What Will Drive the Future?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Self-directed learning

Improved student retention

Competency-based education

Assessment of learning outcomes

Workforce development/ Gainful employment

Cost / Student indebtedness

FACTORS WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT ON THE FUTURE OF HIGHER EDUCATION - 2014

Most important Second most important Third most important

Online Students Take Exams At a Designated Test Facility

4.0%

40.9%

55.1%

ALL EXAMS All Online Courses

Some Online Courses

Not used2.6%

47.0% 50.4%

SELECTED EXAMS

Online Enrollment Caps

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Private for-profit Private not-for-profit Public

ONLINE ENROLLMENT CAPS COMPARED TO THE FACE-TO-FACE COURSES

Lower

Higher

What Outsourced?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Regulatory compliance

Program evaluation

Faculty support/training

Course development/redesign

Student success analytics

Digital content development

Enrollment management/recruitment

Student support services

Technical support services

Marketing

Market research

Learning Management System hosting

CURRENTLY OUTSOURCE ALL OR A PORTION - 2014

Might Outsource

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Program evaluation

Regulatory compliance

Student support services

Course development/redesign

Enrollment management/recruitment

Learning Management System hosting

Student success analytics

Faculty support/training

Technical support services

Digital content development

Marketing

Market research

NOT CURRENTLY OUTSOURCING, WOULD CONSIDER OUTSOURCING

Contact Info

Dr. Jeff Seaman jseaman@seagullhaven.com

@weirdlyperfect

http://www.onlinelearningsurvey.com/oer.html

#pearsoncite @weirdlyperfect

Additional Results

#pearsoncite @weirdlyperfect

Is There an Implementation Gap?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Private for-profit Private not-for-profit Public

IS ONLINE EDUCATION SIGNIFICANTLY REPRESENTED IN FORMAL STRATEGIC PLAN – 2014

In plan Not in plan

Growth is Uneven

-100,000

-75,000

-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

Public, 4-year Private not-for-profit, 4-year

Private for-profit, 4-year

Public, 2-year Private not-for-profit, 2-year

Private for-profit, 2-year

DISTANCE EDUCATION ENROLLMENT CHANGE 2012 TO 2013

Problem(?): Employer Acceptance

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2012 2014

IMPORTANCE OF LACK OF ACCEPTANCE OF ONLINE DEGREES BY POTENTIAL EMPLOYERS AS A BARRIER TO ADOPTION OF ONLINE EDUCATION

Very Important

Important

Online enrollment Caps

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Lower Same Higher

ONLINE ENROLLMENT CAPS COMPARED TO FACE-TO-FACE COURSES