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Dr. James P. GainesChief Economist
recenter.tamu.edu
Greater El Paso CCIM Chapter
Newton’s Law #1: Inertia and Motion
An object at rest stays at rest.
An object in motion stays in motion, with the same speed and direction, unless some other force intervenes.
U.S. Outlook
3
• Uncertain impact of “Tax Cut and Jobs Act”
• Slow GDP growth “new norm” – 8 years avg. 2.2%;
2017 ~2.3%; 2018 ~2.5% - 3%
• Interest rates likely to rise… maybe!
• Inflation 2% - 2.5%
• Industrial production and manufacturing positive but
little help on employment
• Housing improving, not fully recovered
• Jobs expand 1.5% - 2%; Unemployment rate ~4.0%
Texas and U.S. Economic GrowthAnnual Percent Change in Real GDP
6.2%
3.9%
3.3%
2.6%
1.5%
0.8%
4.8%
2.3%
6.2%
4.9%
0.6%
-0.6%
2.6%
3.6%
5.7%
5.1%
3.7%
4.5%
0.4%
3.6%
4.1%
4.5%4.7%
4.1%
1.0%
1.8%
2.8%
3.8%
3.3%
2.7%
1.8%
-0.3%
-2.8%
2.5%
1.6%
2.2%
1.7%
2.6%2.9%
1.5%
2.3%
2.8%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
e
20
18
p
Texas US
Sources: BEA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 4
Monthly Change in Total Nonfarm U.S. Employment
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Jan
-00
Ju
l-00
Jan
-01
Ju
l-01
Jan
-02
Ju
l-02
Jan
-03
Ju
l-03
Jan
-04
Ju
l-04
Jan
-05
Ju
l-05
Jan
-06
Ju
l-06
Jan
-07
Ju
l-07
Jan
-08
Ju
l-08
Jan
-09
Ju
l-09
Jan
-10
Ju
l-10
Jan
-11
Ju
l-11
Jan
-12
Ju
l-12
Jan
-13
Ju
l-13
Jan
-14
Ju
l-14
Jan
-15
Ju
l-15
Jan
-16
Ju
l-16
Jan
-17
Ju
l-17
Jan
-18
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s, S
A
Sources: BLS; Haver Analytics; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Average of ~197,000 jobs per month since October 2010
Six-month
moving average
Inflation Remains Relatively Low
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Jan
-17
Jan
-18
6Source: BLS
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items; Y/Y % change in index
Source: The Conference Board (1985=100); Haver Analytics
Consumer Confidence Index
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan
-07
Ju
l-07
Jan
-08
Ju
l-08
Jan
-09
Ju
l-09
Jan
-10
Ju
l-10
Jan
-11
Ju
l-11
Jan
-12
Ju
l-12
Jan
-13
Ju
l-13
Jan
-14
Ju
l-14
Jan
-15
Ju
l-15
Jan
-16
Ju
l-16
Jan
-17
Ju
l-17
Jan
-18
Ju
l-18
7
U.S.
Texas
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index(Overall Index SA 1986 = 100)
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
Ja
n-1
1
Ma
r-11
Ma
y-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
r-12
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
r-16
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
r-17
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Ma
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses; based on ten survey indicators
Expected Interest Rate on a 30-Year, Fixed-Rate Mortgage in 2018
Apr-105.10
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Jan
-17
Jan
-18
Jan
-19
Source: FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 9
30-Year FRM rate is projected to rise in
2018 by 25bp to 100bp; thru Feb. 22
+40bp
+25bp
+50bp
+100bp
Jan 03 – Jan 07
30-Yr. FRM
averaged 6%
2017 Recovery Year – A Very Good Year
2018: Probably Better
10
Texas Economy
Texas Economic Outlook: 2018 Better Than 2017
11
Employment: +2.5% - 3.0%; Energy & Manufacturing, Healthcare,
Business & Professional Services; Leisure & Hospitality
GDP: 4.1% 2018 from 3.6% 2017
Energy sector downturn mostly over; oil prices $55 - $60/bl.+
Population expansion continues but at slower pace
Local Growth Issues becoming more pressing, causing greater
strain on state and local resources and causing some cost impacts
on local housing
Rebound from Harvey will contribute to economic growth in
2018; impact on property values in affected counties &
neighborhoods ongoing
Texas Annual Jobs
12
7,125,7007,204,6007,301,2007,515,100
7,786,1008,058,700
8,291,400
8,642,700
8,973,7009,189,400
9,461,2009,543,9009,446,4009,400,7009,527,700
9,771,800
10,098,300
10,428,20010,642,400
10,341,10010,374,500
10,604,200
10,914,400
11,241,200
11,593,90011,869,700
12,028,40012,307,850
12,652,470
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
13,000,000
14,000,0001990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017e
2018p
Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
2011-2017 +1,933,250 jobs;
average 276,193/year; +2.5%
2012 +2.9% +310,200
2013 +3.0% +326,800
2014 +3.1% +352,700
2015 +2.4% +275,800
2016 +1.3% +158,700
2017e +2.3% +306,900
2018P +2.8% +344,600
Weekly Active Texas Rig Count & Price of WTI
13
11/21/2014, 906
5/20/2016, 173
6/27/2014, $106.69
2/12/2016, $28.14
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100$110$120$130$140$150$160$170$180
100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950
1,000
1/7
/20
00
3/3
1/2
00
06
/23
/200
09
/15
/200
01
2/8
/200
03
/2/2
001
5/2
5/2
00
18
/17
/200
11
1/9
/200
12
/1/2
002
4/2
6/2
00
27
/19
/200
21
0/1
1/2
00
21
/3/2
003
3/2
8/2
00
36
/20
/200
39
/12
/200
31
2/5
/200
32
/27
/200
45
/21
/200
48
/13
/200
41
1/5
/200
41
/28
/200
54
/22
/200
57
/15
/200
51
0/7
/200
51
2/3
0/2
00
53
/24
/200
66
/16
/200
69
/8/2
006
12/1
/200
62
/23
/200
75
/18
/200
78
/10
/200
71
1/2
/200
71
/25
/200
84
/18
/200
87
/11
/200
81
0/3
/200
81
2/2
6/2
00
83
/20
/200
96
/12
/200
99
/4/2
009
11/2
5/2
00
92
/19
/201
05
/14
/201
08
/6/2
010
10/2
9/2
01
01
/21
/201
14
/15
/201
17
/8/2
011
9/3
0/2
01
11
2/2
2/2
01
13
/16
/201
26
/8/2
012
8/3
1/2
01
21
1/2
1/2
01
22
/15
/201
35
/10
/201
38
/2/2
013
10/2
5/2
01
31
/17
/201
44
/11
/201
47
/3/2
014
9/2
6/2
01
41
2/1
9/2
01
43
/13
/201
56
/5/2
015
8/2
8/2
01
51
1/2
0/2
01
52
/12
/201
65
/6/2
016
7/2
9/2
01
61
0/2
1/2
01
61
/13
/201
74
/7/2
017
6/3
0/2
01
79
/22
/201
71
2/1
5/2
01
73
/9/2
018
6/1
/20
18
Rig Count
(left)
WTI $/bl.
(right)
Rig Count up 309, +179% since May 2016
Source: Baker Hughes; EIA; RE Center at Texas A&M University
El Paso Economy
El Paso 2017 Employment by Industry
Mining, Logging and Construction,
4.8%
Manufacturing, 5.4%
Trade, Transportation, and
Utilities, 21.8%
Information, 1.5%
Financial Activities, 4.3%
Professional and Business Services,
11.1%
Education and Health Services,
14.2%
Leisure and Hospitality, 10.8%
Other Services, 3.0%
Government, 23.1%
Sources: Texas Workforce Commission; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Annual Employment Growth Rates for US, Texas and El Paso
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan
-09
Ap
r-09
Ju
l-09
Oct-
09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct-
10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct-
11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct-
12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct-
13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct-
14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-15
Ju
l-15
Oct-
15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Ju
l-16
Oct-
16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Ju
l-17
Oct-
17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-18
Ju
l-18
16Source: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Texas
US
El Paso
El Paso Annual Jobs
17Sources: Texas Workforce Commission; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
210,400212,500
219,800
227,100233,100
237,500239,400245,600
250,600254,100
259,400259,000260,200
268,300
281,500280,800287,600
291,700295,300
301,500309,600
318,058
324,419
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
310,000
330,000
350,000
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7e
201
8p
Average 1.8% increase per year since 2010
2016 +2.7%; 2017e +2.8%; 2018p +2%
El Paso Employment Change
Industry 2016 2017e Change %
Total Nonfarm 309,600 318,058 8,458 2.7%
Professional and Business Services 33,700 36,308 2,608 7.7%
Financial Activities 12,700 13,500 800 6.3%
Mining, Logging and Construction 14,900 15,550 650 4.4%Transportation, Warehousing, and
Utilities 16,200 16,892 692 4.3%
Education and Health Services 44,000 45,450 1,450 3.3%
Leisure and Hospitality 34,500 35,567 1,067 3.1%
Government 70,800 71,867 1,067 1.5%
Other Services 9,600 9,708 108 1.1%
Wholesale Trade 11,500 11,625 125 1.1%
Retail Trade 39,700 39,850 150 0.4%
Manufacturing 17,000 16,950 -50 -0.3%
Information 5,000 4,792 -208 -4.2%
Sources: Texas Workforce Commission NSA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
El Paso Unemployment Rate
11.612
11.6
10.710.4 10.5
11.6
11
10.3
9.5
6.7
7.2
8.2
8.7
7.5
76.7
5.86.1
8.89.2
9.5
8.5
7.9
6.4
5.24.9
4.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7e
19
El Paso MSA Per Capita Personal Income
2000$18,975
2010$28,074
2016$32,952
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
$22,000
$24,000
$26,000
$28,000
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
$36,0001
99
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
Source: BEA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Average 3.7% per year growth
2016 +1.9%
El Paso Business-Cycle Index
160.0
170.0
180.0
190.0
200.0
210.0
220.0
230.0
240.0
Jan
-97
Ju
l-97
Jan
-98
Ju
l-98
Jan
-99
Ju
l-99
Jan
-00
Ju
l-00
Jan
-01
Ju
l-01
Jan
-02
Ju
l-02
Jan
-03
Ju
l-03
Jan
-04
Ju
l-04
Jan
-05
Ju
l-05
Jan
-06
Ju
l-06
Jan
-07
Ju
l-07
Jan
-08
Ju
l-08
Jan
-09
Ju
l-09
Jan
-10
Ju
l-10
Jan
-11
Ju
l-11
Jan
-12
Ju
l-12
Jan
-13
Ju
l-13
Jan
-14
Ju
l-14
Jan
-15
Ju
l-15
Jan
-16
Ju
l-16
Jan
-17
Ju
l-17
Jan
-18
Ju
l-18
21Source: Dallas Federal Reserve
Average annual 1.8% since 2012
El Paso Real Retail Sales
$2,000
$2,250
$2,500
$2,750
$3,000
$3,2501
Q20
00
3Q
20
00
1Q
20
01
3Q
20
01
1Q
20
02
3Q
20
02
1Q
20
03
3Q
20
03
1Q
20
04
3Q
20
04
1Q
20
05
3Q
20
05
1Q
20
06
3Q
20
06
1Q
2007
3Q
20
07
1Q
20
08
3Q
20
08
1Q
20
09
3Q
20
09
1Q
20
10
3Q
20
10
1Q
20
11
3Q
20
11
1Q
20
12
3Q
20
12
1Q
20
13
3Q
20
13
1Q
20
14
3Q
2014
1Q
20
15
3Q
20
15
1Q
20
16
3Q
20
16
1Q
20
17
3Q
20
17
1Q
20
18
Millio
ns o
f 3Q
2017 d
ollars
, S
A
22Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Texas Demographics
23
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
Presidio
Terrell
Culberson
Reeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis Lee
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Nueces
Taylor
Zapata
Real
Coryell
Bowie
Motley
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor
Kleberg
Archer
Scurry
Cameron
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Hardin
Deaf Smith
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
Goliad
Denton
El Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Crane
Carson
Crosby
Borden
Schleicher
Gillespie
Shelby
Foard
Wood
Menard
Panola
Walker
Winkler
Harrison
Eastland
Loving
Bandera
Wichita
Hood
Matagorda
Brown
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
Bailey
DeWitt
Atascosa
Bosque
Wharton
Concho
Runnels
Fayette
Haskell
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Randall
Sterling
Jefferson
Briscoe
McMullen
Parmer
Jim Hogg
Mitchell
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
Howard
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Anderson
Dawson
Willacy
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Colorado
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
MontagueCochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
Freestone
ComancheGlasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016
24Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates;
Texas State Demographer’s Office
96 counties lost
population over the 6
year period.
-2,010 - 0
1 - 1,000
1,001 - 20,000
20,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 497,469
Alternative Projections Texas Population 2010-2050
54,369,297
47,386,428
25,145,561 40,502,749
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
25Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas State Demographer 2014 Projections
2000-2010 Scenario
50% 2000-2010 Scenario
2010-2015 Scenario
From 1970 to 2010 (40 years),
Texas added 13.9 million people
From 2010 to 2050 (40 years),
Texas will add between 22
and 30 million people
Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
26
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012
Population Projections . 2000-
2010 Migration Scenario
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
F6
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
El Paso MSA Population Projection
Sources: U. S. Census Bureau; Texas State Demographer’s Office
359,291
807,108
877,248
956,347
1,117,352
1,256,169
1,374,133
863,456926,532
1,053,889
1,168,178
1,277,950
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
El Paso projected to add
470,000 to 567,000 people, a
58% to 71% increase
El Paso MSA Population Projection
Median Household Income, Texas Counties, 2011-2015
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
Brewster
Franklin
Hunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
Tom
Green
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
Red
River
Karnes
Palo
Pinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
Freestone
Winkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
Van
Zandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
Trinity
Reeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
La
Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
San
Patricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim Wells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
San
Saba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
Jim
Hogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
Live
Oak
Motley
ShermanOchiltree
Comal
tl_2010_48_county10
MedHHInc15
$22,741.00 - $35,000.00
$35,000.01 - $45,000.00
$45,000.01 - $55,000.00
$55,000.01 - $65,000.00
$65,000.01 - $89,152.00
tl_2010_48_county10Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 5-Year Samples;
Texas State Demographer’s Office
Median HH Income 2011-2015 $53,207
29
Housing Market
Macro Real Estate Issues
1. Affordability: the main challenge for the next several years (decades?); income growth vs. price changes
2. Demographics: generational life cycles; shifting tastes,
preferences, attitudes & desires
3. Capital Flows & Lending Requirements: equity requirements; interest rates and monetary/fiscal policies
4. Infrastructure: transportation, education, utilities
5. Development: Design, Density, Resources and Processes
6. Regulatory: lending; environmental; land use controlsFederal
State
Local
Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
103,344102,789110,830
120,749
126,525126,279
142,940151,861
177,179
191,189195,568
204,084209,438
224,215
250,380
277,649
304,762
286,778
241,666
221,768211,640213,396
247,090
287,235296,828
309,518
323,607
336,502
358,375
$50,000
$70,000
$90,000
$110,000
$130,000
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
$350,000
$370,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
310,000
330,000
350,000
370,0001
99
0
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
p
Sales Avg Price Md Price
Since 2011
Sales + 58%
Average Price + 42%
Median Price + 52%
2018p sales +6-7%
Prices +4%
Annual Texas Home Sales
31
2017 Change in Home Sales and Median Prices by Metro Areas
4.0%
3.8%
2.6%
3.1%
9.4%
3.6%
3.2%
6.7%
4.2%
4.3%
12.6%
3.5%
9.1%
5.4%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
Texas
San Antonio
Houston
Fort Worth
El Paso
Dallas
Austin
Median Sales Price Sales Volume
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Texas Sales by Price Distribution
Price Range
Percent Distribution
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$0 - $69,999 15.1 12.7 9.2 7.2 6.1 5.0 4.2
$70,000 - $99,999 12.5 11.3 9.5 8.2 6.8 5.6 4.8
$100,000 - $149,999 23.6 22.8 21.9 20.2 17.7 15.2 12.9
$150,000 - $199,999 17.5 18.5 19.7 20.3 20.7 20.6 19.7
$200,000 - $249,999 9.8 10.8 11.7 12.8 14.1 15.6 16.6
$250,000 - $299,999 6.9 7.6 8.3 9.1 10.2 11.3 12.2
$300,000 - $399,999 7.1 7.9 9.3 10.5 11.8 13.0 14.5
$400,000 - $499,999 3.0 3.6 4.5 5.1 5.6 6.2 6.7
$500,000 - $749,999 2.7 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.4
$750,000 - $999,999 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4
$1,000,000 + 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4
Source: ABOR; TAR Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
21% 40%
79% 58%
Texas SF Building Permits
38,233
46,209
59,543
69,96470,45270,421
83,13282,228
99,912101,928108,782
111,915
122,913
137,493
151,384
166,203163,032
120,366
81,107
68,230
68,170
67,254
81,926
93,478
103,045105,448
106,511
115,262127,941
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7e
201
8p
Source: US Census Bureau; NAHB; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
2015 +2.3%
2016 +1.0%
2017e +10.4%
2018p +11%
1990-2016 average 95,529/year
Texas SF Building Permits per 1,000 New Households
35
316
401
739
645580
528
1,339
689
347
851
398435
648719
435
585592
714699
809
1,191
1,550
2,018
970
888
1,242
894
455
646
324
602679668619
731688745
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7e
Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
1995-2015 average
820/year
2008-2016, added 1.33 million HHs.
Would have built 1.1 million SF
homes at average/year; actually
built 776k. About 315,000 units
short.
Texas MF Building Permits
8,96210,2989,514
15,545
32,23734,68435,720
43,794
56,918
44,716
32,620
38,427
42,40943,081
39,796
44,431
53,894
58,542
49,897
17,375
21,504
32,260
56,40656,644
67,319
69,995
59,34256,854
55,149
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7e
201
8p
Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
1995-2016 average 45,444/year
Texas Residential Construction Leading and Coincident Indexes
Jan 2000=100
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan
-00
Ju
l-00
Jan
-01
Ju
l-01
Jan
-02
Ju
l-02
Jan
-03
Ju
l-03
Jan
-04
Ju
l-04
Jan
-05
Ju
l-05
Jan
-06
Ju
l-06
Jan
-07
Ju
l-07
Jan
-08
Ju
l-08
Jan
-09
Ju
l-09
Jan
-10
Ju
l-10
Jan
-11
Ju
l-11
Jan
-12
Ju
l-12
Jan
-13
Ju
l-13
Jan
-14
Ju
l-14
Jan
-15
Ju
l-15
Jan
-16
Ju
l-16
Jan
-17
Ju
l-17
Jan
-18
Ju
l-18
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Leading Index
Coincident Index
Total Housing
Permits (12-MMA)
37
38
The El Paso
Market
Source: GEPAoR; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
4,6854,492
5,133
5,481
5,737
4,783
3,9803,9754,425
5,385
5,1025,052
5,402
6,152
5,896
5,327
6,828
6,135
4,791
5,3425,507
5,108
5,6805,673
6,031
6,754
7,166
7,839
8,231
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,0001
99
0
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
p
2016 +6.1%
2017 +9.4%
2018p +5%
El Paso Annual Home Sales
39
El Paso Sales by Price Distribution
Price Range
Percent Distribution
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$0 - $69,999 5.4 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.1
$70,000 - $99,999 16.3 14.8 14.4 15.9 14.6 14.2 11.6
$100,000 - $149,999 40.3 39.1 37.8 35.0 35.5 34.0 33.9
$150,000 - $199,999 20.5 22.0 22.1 22.9 24.0 24.7 27.9
$200,000 - $249,999 7.8 9.3 9.2 10.3 9.8 10.5 11.2
$250,000 - $299,999 4.7 4.6 5.1 4.7 4.6 5.2 4.9
$300,000 - $399,999 3.3 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
$400,000 - $499,999 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0
$500,000 - $749,999 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7
$750,000 - $999,999 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
$1,000,000 + 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Source: GEPAoR; TAR Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
10% 10%
90% 90%
405
910
2,652
2,187
878
385
270
81
52
13
6
3,000 2,000 1,000 0
Sales
El Paso 2017 Sales and EoY Months Inventory by Price
41
3.3
3.4
3.5
6.7
6.1
6.5
6.7
8.6
12.7
26.8
26.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
$0 - $69,999
$70,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000 - $249,999
$250,000 - $299,999
$300,000 - $399,999
$400,000 - $499,999
$500,000 - $749,999
$750,000 - $999,999
$1,000,000 +
MOI
Sources: GEPAoR; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
January 5.2
5.2%
11.6%
33.8%
27.9%
11.2%
4.9%
3.4%
1.0%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
Jan
-00
Ju
l-00
Jan
-01
Ju
l-01
Jan
-02
Ju
l-02
Jan
-03
Ju
l-03
Jan
-04
Ju
l-04
Jan
-05
Ju
l-05
Jan
-06
Ju
l-06
Jan
-07
Ju
l-07
Jan
-08
Ju
l-08
Jan
-09
Ju
l-09
Jan
-10
Ju
l-10
Jan
-11
Ju
l-11
Jan
-12
Ju
l-12
Jan
-13
Ju
l-13
Jan
-14
Ju
l-14
Jan
-15
Ju
l-15
Jan
-16
Ju
l-16
Jan
-17
Ju
l-17
Jan
-18
Ju
l-18
Jan
-19
42Source: GEPAoR; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Median home price had a
small bubble 05-08;
upsurge starting in 2012
El Paso Median Home Price12MMA
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
1,851
1,631
2,2702,2962,323
2,259
2,3472,316
3,039
3,472
2,879
3,3173,459
4,829
3,407
4,333
3,877
3,190
2,897
2,640
2,961
3,2803,176
2,613
2,260
2,518
2,219
2,661
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
New home construction erratic since 2014
Annual El Paso SF Building Permits
43
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
227 239
452
324
1,423
288
926
319
24
396
9233
119
207
115
829
103
979944
475
1,412
618
1,096
939
549
1,869
674634
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Annual El Paso MF Building Permits
44
El Paso Office Market
$11.50
$12.00
$12.50
$13.00
$13.50
$14.00
$14.50
$15.00
$15.50
$16.00
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
1Q
2007
3Q
2007
1Q
2008
3Q
2008
1Q
2009
3Q
2009
1Q
2010
3Q
2010
1Q
2011
3Q
2011
1Q
2012
3Q
2012
1Q
2013
3Q
2013
1Q
2014
3Q
2014
1Q
2015
3Q
2015
1Q
2016
3Q
2016
1Q
2017
3Q
2017
Occupancy Office Base Rent Overall
45Source: CoStar Group; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
El Paso Retail Market
$11.00
$11.50
$12.00
$12.50
$13.00
$13.50
92.0
92.5
93.0
93.5
94.0
94.5
95.0
95.5
96.0
96.5
97.0
1Q
2007
3Q
2007
1Q
2008
3Q
2008
1Q
2009
3Q
2009
1Q
2010
3Q
2010
1Q
2011
3Q
2011
1Q
2012
3Q
2012
1Q
2013
3Q
2013
1Q
2014
3Q
2014
1Q
2015
3Q
2015
1Q
2016
3Q
2016
1Q
2017
3Q
2017
Occupancy All Service Type Rent Overall
46Source: CoStar Group; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
El Paso Industrial Warehouse Market
$3.20
$3.30
$3.40
$3.50
$3.60
$3.70
$3.80
$3.90
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
1Q
2007
3Q
2007
1Q
2008
3Q
2008
1Q
2009
3Q
2009
1Q
2010
3Q
2010
1Q
2011
3Q
2011
1Q
2012
3Q
2012
1Q
2013
3Q
2013
1Q
2014
3Q
2014
1Q
2015
3Q
2015
1Q
2016
3Q
2016
1Q
2017
3Q
2017
Occupancy % NNN Rent Overall
47Source: CoStar Group; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Dr. James P. GainesChief Economist
recenter.tamu.edu
Greater El Paso CCIM Chapter
