Dr. Eve Gruntfest and Monica Zappa Integrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) Workshop

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

Changing the Research to Operations Framework to Include All Partners: First Steps Toward the New Paradigm

Dr. Eve Gruntfest and Monica ZappaIntegrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) Workshop

October 27, 2009

Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM)University of Oklahoma


Today’s presentation 1. Evidence that the process of weaving in social science and

changing the stovepiped paradigm is underway Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM)WAS * IS (Weather and Society * Integrated Studies)

2. Our contributions to this workshopMethods and results from interviews - tornado and hurricane examplesInclusive model with all players as equal partners

3. Ways to move forward together this week and after the workshop


Social Science Woven Into Meteorology (SSWIM)

The National Weather Center – Norman, OK Funded by University of Oklahoma and NOAA www.sswim.org


SSWIM’s objectives are innovative research and capacity building

• … by increasing the appreciation of the value of qualitative as well as quantitative approaches including archival, ethnographic, and participatory methods

• … through partnerships with public, private, and academic sectors, including students, practitioners, and policymakers across the spectrum of stakeholders


WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

water


The WAS*IS movement • Began as 1 workshop … now 7 • Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (Nov 2005, Mar 2006)• Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) • Summer WAS*IS (July 2006)• Australia WAS*IS (end of January 2007)• Summer WAS * IS (July 2007)• Summer WAS * IS (July 2008)• Summer WAS*IS (August 2009)• Integrated Warning Team Meetings inspired by WAS * IS

• Springfield, MO December 2008• Kansas City, MO January 2009 ANDY BAILEY is HERE• Omaha, NE September 2009

As of October, 2009 - 198 WAS*ISers and hundreds of “friends of WAS * IS”


Groundwork prior to this workshop Workshops

– Advanced WAS * IS workshop in Norman with Hazardous Weather Testbed September 2008

– NEX GEN warning meeting December 2008

Call to Action policy changes and discussions – Tornadoes and vehicles– Report from Ike

Integrated Warning Team meetings (after Kansas City meeting) • All TV stations have consistent warning map colors• Live Skype video from NWS office on air during severe

weather• List-serve email list for all IWT members in KC metro• Increased NWS chat adoption and use• Developing set of uniform siren guidelines for KC metro


Challenge To develop ways to incorporate preferences of forecasters and decision-makers in new hazard warning tools

Our experiment• to bring forecaster and decision-maker stories and

experiences • to enrich the context in which new tools are

invented

• Take advantage of existing capacity in Boulder and Norman – how can we work together effectively


PublicsWeather Forecasters

Media

Emergency Managers & 1st Responders

6

Developers

Researchers

Today’s end-to-end decision-making relationships


Our methods• Conduct interviews across the spectrum of folks participating

in the workshop

• Construct graphics highlighting spatial and temporal needs of forecasters and decision-makers

• Weave needs of decision-makers into the workshop agenda and next generation warning products

• Complex process – – We’ve only scratched the surface– Need for patience– many languages – listening a MUST– Commitment to new ways of doing business

• Developing interactive end-to-end practices that change the paradigm to include all partners all the time


Study Participants


Finding - Interviewed forecaster and developer have different concerns

• One forecaster– Too many types of warnings to keep track of– Difficulty with beginning and ending times (especially in

situations with many warnings at once)

• One developer– Many warnings do not follow the storm and parts of

counties get clipped out– Boundary issues: forecast office warning jurisdictions – Often not enough lead-time when new warnings are not

issued until the storm leaves the old polygon


One weather forecaster Super Tuesday events February 2, 2008

• Many overlapping warnings – ending/beginning• Number of warnings was extremely difficult for the

forecasters to monitor At one point 20 warnings (tornado and severe thunderstorm)

issued for our forecast area. Forecasters had to keep track of all the warnings, when they start and stop

• Warnings were continuously expiring and being reissued – Many places were in and out of warnings several times

W1W3W2 W10W4

W11W8

W5 W9W6W7

W12W14

W13W15

W16

W17W18

W19W20

Timet0

W1 W3W11W5 W9W6

W7W14

W13W15 W17W18

W19

t1 =1h

20 WarningsW21

W22 W23 W24


Storm Motion

11:02-11:20

11:50-12:20

11:12-11:43

11:05-11:35

11:00:11:21

10:55-11:1511:02-11:35

11:36-12:23

11:46-12:18

11:45-12:21

11:55-12:25

11:49-12:28

11:51-12:26

11:40-12:27

11:45-12:20

12:29-12:48

12:26-12:40

12:28-12:50

12:27-12:51

12:28-12:48

12:29-12:48

Current timeWarnings must follow the storm– too much confusion (hypothetical case)


•Program settings exclude counties if only a small part of the warning is included

• Most severe weather was missed in this event

•Gaps between polygons can exclude severe portions of the storm•A problem for people that receive warnings from a GPS mobile device

One programmer's perspective


Time Scale

0 km

100 Km

1000 km

100 Km

1000 km

6Jan 31

5 4 3 2 1Feb 1 Feb 2 Feb

3Feb 4 Feb 5

First outlook issued

1st watch issued (2pm)

2nd watch issued (3pm)

1st warning issued 9pm

Nashville sirens sounded

13 fatalities44 injuries Near Lafayette, TN

Awareness raised among emergency managers, and other officials

Hospitals, Schools, Events?

26 tornado warnings issued8 severe storm warnings

Geographic space scales: Regional, State, Local

10 Km

10 Km

Future research is needed to fill in this timeline with a more representative sample of the decisions to be made and by whom


5 Days 4 Days 3 Days 2 Days 1 Day Event

One county emergency manager’s hurricane warning time/space considerations

Conference calls EMs & NWS –

storm potential

Decisions about whether or not to evacuate special

needs populationsDecisions about

whether or not to evacuate everyone

at risk Evacuations – none, some/all of county

NWS Forecasts

are integrated in storm

surge models

Evacuation decision begin: When? Who?

To where? Order busses?


Examples of societal impacts - Public perspectives

Consider people and infrastructure – If a area is not in a warning does that mean there is not a

threat?– When (days, hours, rush hour, holiday, first snow of season)– What facilities (roads, hospitals, schools, factories) – What kinds of (probability, threat levels) information may be

useful to different publics BEFORE the time of a warning?– No such thing as ideal lead time – Tell what you know

• People planning a trip or large outdoor event• Mobile home dwellers without nearby shelter or without

transportation• Hiker


PublicsPublicsWeather

Forecasters

Media


6

Developers

Researchers

Relationships addressed in Integrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) Workshop

Various publics are not represented at workshop


Putting it all together: Future relationships for developing effective warnings

Interactive relationships with all the hazardous weather decision makersChanging the paradigm of hazardous weather warnings

PublicsPublicsWeather

Forecasters

Media


6

Developers

Researchers


Change “public education” paradigm – recognize two -way relationships – The “right” message is one piece of the puzzle to change behaviors

Flash flood example

• Drivers know there are warnings and where the hazardous low water crossings are but THEY NEED TO GO to work

• Potential to lose their job is perceived as a greater risk than driving across flooded road

• Better information is NOT going to change behavior - only if boss closes work

• Publics use weather warnings as part of complex decision-making with many other considerations –

THEIR BEHAVIORS must be understood to improve warning responses

• Evaluate public education efforts - Before, during, after


Changing Research-to-Operations paradigm – Show commitment to sustained effortsSponsor more efforts to bring players together (software developers

and researchers with each other – Boulder and Norman) – Testbeds– Workshops

Recognize consistent themesNO one size fits allNO perfect lead-timeTime and space needs are case and person specific

Bring in social science to help with tool development, surveys of publics, forecasters, and other decision-makers and program evaluations


Ways to move forward Involve social scientists

– Identify best ways to change the paradigm to be more inclusive (Bring in more associations, agencies, companies, universities, local governments)

– Be equal players with software developers, modelers, and physical scientists

– Perform program effectiveness evaluation research– Participate in more local Integrated Warning Team

workshops (Develop local collaborations between emergency managers, media, NWS)


National Weather Servicehydrologists

Private forecastersEnvironmental groups

Local communitiesEmergency managers

Changing the Research-to-Operations paradigm occurs when stovepipes are not the model

Universities

Research centersSoftware developers

Urban drainage districtsAnthropologists, Geographers

Broadcast meteorologistsUtilities

National Weather Servicemeteorologists


What did the most influential players in weather warning work look like prior to the Integrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) Workshop?



Effective new hazardous weather warnings require more than new technologies, models and tools – new ways of thinking about hazards and warnings are required


The people of the Global Systems Division, the Hazardous Weather Testbed- All of us are changing the uni-dimensional culture


Dr. Tracy Hansen for her vision and hard work to bring us all together today and… from now on in sustainable ways

All of US committed to better hazard warnings across agencies, geographic boundaries, and disciplines

Dr. Steve Koch for continuing to inspire and fund this developing partnership

Thanks to


Extreme speed of

watershed responses

Extremely short lead-time for warnings

Isabelle Ruin WAS * ISer NCAR post doc – New time/space analysis – hydrometeorology

Documents

Dr. Eve Gruntfest and Monica Zappa Integrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) Workshop