Dr. Donald A. Wilhite School of Natural Resources ... · nd IOC meeting, Brasilia, October, 2012 ... Mitigation and response measures ... tsunami, volcanic eruption) 11% 72% 9% 8%

Dr. Donald A. WilhiteSchool of Natural Resources

University of Nebraska-Lincoln

HMNDP Leadership!

FAO

WMO

UNCCD

http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html

http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html

hmndp.org

School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences

Steps to HMNDP • 16th Session WMO Congress, 2011• Expert Meeting, Compendium of Best Practices on

NDP, George Mason University, 2011• International Symposium on Integrated Drought

Information Systems, Casablanca, 2011• 1st IOC meeting, Geneva • Briefing session, Diplomatic Missions, April 2011• 2nd IOC meeting, Brasilia, October, 2012• Rio +20 Side Event, Rio de Janeiro, October 2012• Meeting with key sponsors to finalize program,

November, 2012


Presentation Outline• The ENIGMA OF DROUGHT — a sense

of urgency– Drought as hazard, characteristics, definition– Hydro-illogical Cycle/Crisis Management

• Our CHANGING CLIMATE—CHANGING VULNERABILITY

• Building SOCIETAL RESILIENCE – Drought monitoring, early warning and information systems– Vulnerability/risk/impact assessments– Mitigation and response measures

• Moving towards a POLICY FRAMEWORK that enhances preparedness and risk reduction– Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP)– Compendium of best practices in support of NDP– Projected goals and outcomes of HMNDP:

Recommendations for Future Actions

The Enigma of Drought

http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/11/11/china-drought-and-the-three-gorges-dam/

http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/11/11/china-drought-and-the-three-gorges-dam/

http://www.irinnews.org/PhotoDetail.aspx?ImageId=2006117

http://www.irinnews.org/PhotoDetail.aspx?ImageId=2006117


Drought—as hazard• a normal part of climate.


Drought—as hazard• a normal part of climate.• occurs in virtually all climatic regimes.

Mexico City, Mexico

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Adelaide, Australia


Drought—as hazard

• a normal part of climate.• occurs in virtually all climatic regimes.• characteristics vary between regions.• definitions must be region and

application specific.• impacts are a good measure of

severity and an indicator of societal vulnerability or resilience.

Defining Drought

Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or

longer period of time (duration) . . . . .

Meteorological Drought

-Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific

Prec

ipita

tion

Time (months, years)

Mean or Median

Rainfall deciles


It’s so dry . . .

Defining Drought

Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or

longer period of time (duration) . . . . .

Meteorological Droughtand is insufficient to meet the demands of human

activities and the environment (impacts).Agricultural,

Hydrological andSocio-economic

Drought

-Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-07-05/drought-stalks-the-global-food-supply

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-07-05/drought-stalks-the-global-food-supply

Evolution of Drought Types

What are the indices

and indicators?

Casc

adin

g Im

pact

s

Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought

RainfallDeficienciesHeat Stress

Meteorological

SoilsCropsRange

LivestockForests

AgriculturalWater SupplySnow DepthIrrigationRecreation

TourismHydropower

Hydrological

Socio-economic

Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts

Societal Impact

Drought Risk Reduction

Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies)

Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management & policy

Time/Duration of the event

Drought compared to other natural hazards• slow onset, “creeping phenomenon”

– drought’s onset and end difficult to determine– commonality with climate change

Drought– it sneaks up on you!

Drought compared to other natural hazards • slow onset, “creeping phenomenon”

– drought onset and end difficult to determine– commonality with climate change

• absence of a universal definition• impacts are nonstructural and spread over

large areas• severity and impacts best defined by

multiple indices and indicators• impacts are complex, affect many people,

and vary on spatial and temporaltimescales, multiple and migrating epicenters

30 month animation—USDM,2010-2013

Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle:An Institutional Challenge for Drought Management

Crisis Management

If you do what you’ve always

done, you’ll get what you’ve always got.

We MUSTadopt a new paradigm for

drought management!

Our Changing Climate

IPCC

Mean Temperature Increase & Impact on Extreme Temperatures

Hansen, NASA’s GISS, 2013

Shifting Distribution of Summer Temperature Anomalies

Adapting to Changing ExtremesWMO

The previous two decades recorded highest number of national 24 hour

precipitation records

Highest number of broken National maximum T°records in 2001-2010

compared to the previous three decades

Lowest number of broken National minimum T° records in 2001-2010

compared to the previous four decades

(Source: WMO country data.

Fits with IPCC more hot days and more heat waves

Fewer cool nights

Intensification of heavy rainfall

Highest Max. Temp.

Lowest Min. Temp.

Highest 24h Precipitation

1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010

1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10

1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10

Impacts of Global Climate Change:

Increased frequency of extreme weather events

Storms

Floods

Droughts

along with heat waves, snow storms, etc.

Managing for Climate Variability


The Climate Challenge for Drought Management

• Increasing mean temperature• High temp. stress and heat waves/longer

growing seasons• Increased evapotranspiration• Changes in precipitation amount,

distribution and intensity• Reduced soil moisture • Changes in groundwater recharge • Reduced runoff/stream flow resulting from

reduced snowpack/sublimation

Are droughts increasing in frequency, intensity and duration?

Drought impacts are more complex today as more

economic sectors are affected, creating more conflicts between

water users, i.e., societal vulnerability is dramatically

different and changing.• Agricultural production• Food security• Energy• Transportation• Tourism/Recreation• Forest/rangeland fires• Municipal water• Water quality/quantity• Environment • Ecosystem services• Health

Changes in Societal Vulnerability

Meteorological events(Storms, etc.)

Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)

Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)

Number

© 2013 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2013

100

200

300

400

500

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Natural Catastrophes Worldwide1980-2012

Number500

400

300

200

100

Source: Munich Re

Insured losses in 2012 US$: 970bn

Meteorological events(Storms, etc.)


Climatological events(Extreme temp, drought, forest fire)


11%

72%

9%8%

Extreme weather events affect the core business of the insurance industry!

Natural Catastrophes Worldwide, 1980-2012

Distribution of insured losses to different perils

Source: Munich Re

Natural Disasters in the U.S.1980-2011 Number of Events, Annual Totals

Meteorological events(Storm)


Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)


50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

2011 Total171 Events

5

92

14

60

© 2011 Munich ReSource: MR NatCatSERVICE

31

Drought Disaster DesignationsOctober 10, 2012

$16 billion in crop insurance indemnitiesTotal drought impacts ~ $35-77 billion

Superstorm Sandy ~ $50 billion


Emergency response has a place in drought risk management, but it can also

lead to:• greater vulnerability/decreased

resilience to future drought events• increased reliance on government and

donor interventions.


Building Societal Resilience through National Drought Policies and Preparedness Plans: The Way Forward


EXPOSURE• Severity/Magnitude

- Intensity/Duration• Frequency• Spatial extent• Trends

- Historical- Future

• Impacts• Early warning

SOCIAL FACTORS• Population growth• Population shifts• Urbanization• Technology• Land use changes• Environmental

degradation• Water use trends• Government

policies• Environmental

awareness

RISK


EXPOSURE SOCIAL FACTORS

RISK

The Cycle of Disaster Management

proactive

reactive

Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes.

Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience.

Reducing Societal Vulnerability• Improve drought awareness• Develop/improve monitoring, early warning

and information delivery systems• Improve decision support tools• Complete risk assessments of vulnerable

sectors, population groups, regions• Improve understanding and quantification of

drought impacts vs. mitigation costs• Develop and implement drought

preparedness plans• Create national drought policies based on

the principles of risk reduction

Follow-on Actions—HMNDP • Integrated Drought Management

Programme (IDMP)– Global Water Partnership/WMO initiative

• Project—Capacity Development to support National Drought Management Policies (UN-Water, WMO, UNCCD), Bucharest, July 2013

• Soliciting donor support for HMNDP declaration recommendations

• Publication of key papers from HMNDP

IDMP Objectives• At global level, the IDMP will contribute to best

practices related to drought risk management through:– Better scientific understanding of, and inputs for, drought

management;– Improved knowledge base, with better access to

information and products;– Drought risk assessment, monitoring, prediction, and early

warning;– Policy and planning for drought preparedness and

mitigation across sectors; and– Drought risk reduction and response.


National Drought Policy Goals Proactive mitigation and planning

measures, risk management, public outreach and resource stewardship.

Greater collaboration to enhance the national / regional / global observation networks and information delivery systems to improve public understanding of, and preparedness for, drought.

Incorporation of comprehensive governmental and private insurance and financial strategies into drought preparedness plans.


National Drought Policy Goals Recognition of a safety net of emergency

relief based on sound stewardship of natural resources and self-help at diverse governance levels. Coordination of drought programmes

and response in an effective, efficient and customer-oriented manner.


Resources Available• Expert meeting to develop a

compendium of best practices on national drought policy– Promoting standard approaches

to Vulnerability and Impact Assessments

– Implementing effective Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems

– Enhancing Preparedness and Mitigation Actions

– Implementing Emergency Response and Relief measures that reinforce National Drought Policy

– Understanding the Cost of Inaction.


HMNDP Plenary Sessions• Drought monitoring, early warning and

information systems• Drought prediction and predictability• Drought vulnerability and impact

assessment• Enhancing drought preparedness and

mitigation• Planning for appropriate response and relief

within the framework of National Drought Policy

• Constructing a framework for National Drought Policy: The way forward

Takeaway Messages• Climate is changing—climate state and

climate variability.• Extreme climate events are increasing in

frequency globally, managing impacts critically important.

• Time is NOW to change the paradigm from crisis to drought risk management.

• Time is NOW for all drought-prone nations to adopt appropriate drought policies that will reduce the impacts of future drought episodes through risk-based management.


Thanks for your attention!

Contact Information:School of Natural Resources

University of [email protected]

Documents

Dr. Donald A. Wilhite School of Natural Resources ... · nd IOC meeting, Brasilia, October, 2012 ... Mitigation and response measures ... tsunami, volcanic eruption) 11% 72% 9% 8%